Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities For Rural Poor People
Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities For Rural Poor People
Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities For Rural Poor People
The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect official views or policies of the
International Fund for Agricultural Development, except as
explicitly stated.
Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
Food versus fuel: Can the agriculture sector meet biofuel demand without compromising food
security? Farmers might benefit from high commodity prices but what about net purchasers of
food?
Climate change and environment: How effective are biofuels in mitigating climate change? Are
we using the right yardstick to determine the amount of energy required to produce biofuels in
developing countries where farmers are less likely to use nitrogen fertilizers and practice
mechanized farming?
Land use and tenure security: Will the increase in biofuel demand increase land use competition
between food and fuel crops and result in tenure insecurity for small farmers?
Impact on poverty alleviation: How does biofuel development affect the food security, energy
needs and employment opportunities of poor rural people?
INTRODUCTION
On 2 January 2008, the cost of crude oil crossed US$100 a barrel for the first time,
raising global concerns. Continuing near-record oil prices, fears of unaffordable and
rapidly depleting sources of fossil fuel and the desire to achieve energy security and
mitigate climate change have combined to heighten interest in biofuel production as a
cost-effective, alternative source of energy.
In 2006, bio-ethanol production was around 40 billion litres globally with 90 percent
produced in Brazil and the United States, and bio-diesel production was more than 6
billion litres with 75 percent produced in the EU – mainly in France and Germany. Brazil,
the most competitive producer with the longest history of bio-ethanol production, uses
about half its sugarcane to produce bio-ethanol.
Although assessments of the global economic potential of biofuels have just begun,
current biofuel policies could, according to some estimates, lead to a fivefold increase of
the share of biofuels in global transport energy consumption – from just over 1 percent
today to 5 to 6 percent by 2020.1 With increasing demand for biofuels, considerable land
could be diverted from food to feedstock production. FAO estimates that the amount of
land that would be used for the development of biofuels – at present about 1 percent of
the world’s arable land – could increase up to 3 percent by 2030 and as much as 20
percent by 2050.
1
World Bank, World Development Report (WDR) 2008.
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
incentives (fuel tax reductions), production incentives (reduced taxes and direct
subsidies) and mandatory blending standards. The private sector responded to these
incentives, setting up processing plants for converting crops into energy in a relatively
short time. Alarms were raised when the resulting increased demand for fuel crops
contributed to increased commodity prices with adverse effects on consumers and
environmentally sensitive land that was cleared for planting palm oil. These excesses
raised some valid concerns about the impact of biofuel production on local environments,
livelihoods of the displaced people and the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The impact of increased food prices, According to FAO, “biofuels accounted for
the fastest-growing market for agricultural
especially on the poor, has drawn
products around the world and was a billion-
considerable attention. Yet, the potential for dollar business. Increasing oil prices in
biofuel production to enhance the national recent years had had devastating effects on
energy security for most of the low-income many poor countries, some of which spent
countries that are also net oil importers has six times as much on fuel as they did on
had relatively little attention. health. In that regard, the modern form of
bioenergy could create great opportunity”.
These negatives notwithstanding, as a
renewable energy source, biofuels can help mitigate climate change and reduce
dependence on oil in the transportation sector. They can also have a positive impact on
the limited foreign exchange reserves of many developing countries. When well
managed, they also offer large new markets for higher prices products for agricultural
producers that could stimulate rural growth and farm incomes.
This paper considers the pros and cons of the debate over the potential social, economic
and environmental impact of the increase in biofuel production. It also recognizes that
the developing world has its own set of bio-energy issues, which can be different from
those of the developed world.
ISSUES
Biofuel production has pushed up prices of some food crops, an expected outcome when
they are also used as feedstock. For example the price of maize increased by 23 percent
in 2006 and some 60 percent during the past two years, largely because of the U.S. bio-
ethanol program.2 The U.S. is the world’s largest maize exporter and when its biofuel
expansion contributed to a decline in grain stocks, it also, inadvertently, contributed to
an increase in world cereal prices. Similar price increases have occurred for oil crops such
as palm, soybean and rapeseed because of bio-diesel production.
Some food price increases are anticipated but, as with most aspects of biofuel, estimates
vary. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) projects maize prices to
rise 20 percent by 2010 and 41 percent by 2020, with similar increases for oilseeds (26
percent by 2010, and 76 percent by 2020), and wheat (11 percent by 2010 and 30
percent by 2020). FAO, on the other hand, projects that prices of coarse grains will
increase by 15 percent by 2016, whereas the price of wheat would remain unchanged.
It should be noted, however, that although price increases are blamed on increased
biofuel production, issues such as stock levels, exchange movements and weather, as
well as intangible factors such as speculation also affect price increase in commodities.
2
WDR, 2008.
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
fuel based inputs, such as diesel, fertilizers and pesticides eventually lower output. Now,
with rising energy prices and improved bio-energy conversion technologies, energy prices
and feedstock prices are increasingly being linked. These linkages are more readily
visible in the more integrated markets of sugar and bio-ethanol in Brazil but most
probably will soon emerge in other feedstock prices as well.
However, as these markets become linked, the energy prices will place a “ceiling price”
on feedstock prices, because feedstock prices account for more than 70 percent of biofuel
costs. Thus, in order to remain competitive for the energy market, agricultural feedstock
prices cannot rise faster than energy prices, which will limit price increases.
Moreover, the new second-generation technologies currently being developed would lead
to efficient conversion of ligno-cellulosic biomass (from grasses and other biomass) into
liquid and gaseous energy forms. This would allow use of cellulose-rich biomass to be
grown on marginal lands that do not compete with food. It would also make many more
species of plants potential sources of energy.
The general price increase in most commodities has led to some concerns about the
impact on the poor. Usually, as one staple becomes more expensive, people replace it
with a cheaper one. But, if the prices of nearly all staples go up, consumers are left with
no alternatives. If this remains the trend, some nutrition studies show that the number of
food-insecure people in the world would rise by more than 16 million for every
percentage increase in the real prices of staple foods, meaning that 1.2 billion people
could be chronically hungry by 2025 – 600 million more than previously predicted.
However, whether the impact of a rise in food price would be as severe as noted by the
nutrition studies is uncertain. There could be considerable offsetting benefits from
development of biofuels. From the point of view of poor farmers who have dealt with
declining commodity prices for more than 40 years (see Chart 1), increasing food prices
provide an opportunity for increasing benefits and intensifying production which could
lead to increased food output.
This has been observed in Brazil where biofuel production in sugarcane-producing regions
stimulated rather than competed with the other food crops and the income generated
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
Chart 1
One of the big selling, but most debated, points of biofuel is its carbon neutrality. This
means that the growing plants absorb carbon and, when harvested, release only the
amount of carbon they absorbed. There is little doubt that most biofuels emit fewer
greenhouse gasses than fossil fuels when used for energy, thus mitigating the effect on
climate change.
The debate is over the net carbon savings which means factoring in the amount of fossil-
fuel energy needed to produce the biofuel energy throughout its entire production cycle.
At issue is whether the calculation should include only inputs used directly for growing
the feedstock such as the nitrogen fertilizers or the energy used by farm machinery or if
it should include even the energy used to make the agricultural machinery.
The results will vary, depending on the type of feedstock, cultivation methods,
conversion technologies and energy efficiency.4 Sugarcane-based bio-ethanol saves
between 80 and 90 percent of GHG emissions per mile while bio-diesel from soybeans
can save 40 percent.5 In general, biofuels from grains have lower performance, reducing
carbon emissions by 10 to 30 percent per mile or, in some cases, even producing higher
emissions than fossil fuels.6
3
S. Zarrilli, 2006, “Trade and Sustainable Development Implications of the Emerging Biofuels Market” in
International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development Linking Trade, Climate Change and Energy:
Selected Issue Briefs www.ictsd.org
4
P. Hazell, Bioenergy: Opportunities and Challenges, presentation, Sweet Sorghum Consultation, IFAD, Rome,
November 2007.
5
Ibidem.
6
Ibidem.
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
Energy parameters have been well researched for carbon savings based on agricultural
practices in developed countries, but would it be correct to apply these analyses to
developing countries without further study? Clearly, less use of fertilizer and labour-
intensive farming feedstock production in developing countries is comparatively
advantageous from the point of view of the mitigation agenda. However, the degree of
advantage would need to be substantiated through further analysis.
The labour-intensive biofuel production capability of the developing world’s small farmers appears
to be relatively more environmentally friendly than large-scale, commercial, monocropping
operations in the developed world. Due to, inter alia, low commodity prices, poor farmers of the
developing world have had no funds and few incentives to buy fertilizers that emit GHGs, and they
rarely use mechanized farm equipment that consumes polluting fossil fuels.
Expansion of the agricultural frontier. When land is cleared for planting biofuel crops,
the effect can be harmful to the environment, because expansion of biofuel crops can
displace other crops or threaten ecosystem integrity by shifting from biodiverse
ecosystems and farming systems to industrial monocultures. In Brazil, it is feared that
future sugarcane expansion might involve fragile areas. In Indonesia and Malaysia, 14 to
15 million ha of peat lands have been cleared for the development of oil palm
plantations. According to the EU, a change in land use such as cutting forests or draining
peat land can cancel GHG emissions savings “for decades”.
Soil and water management. Some feedstocks, such as sugar cane, require
considerable quantities of water7 while others such as jatropha require less. In dry areas,
the competition between food and fuel crops may become the overriding issue in the
fuels vs food debate and the issue could be addressed by investing in soil management
and water saving technologies, some of which are uneconomical under present
circumstances with declining commodities prices. Improvement in crop productivity as
well as the shift from high water-use bio-fuel crops (such as sugarcane) to drought-
tolerant crops (such as sweet sorghum) are also options to address the issue of water
scarcity.
The processing of energy crops into biofuels also requires water and, though new
conversion plants offer options for controlling water pollution, existing processing
facilities can discharge organically contaminated effluent. All agrochemical runoff and
sediments are problematic, but these problems apply as much to food crops as they do
to biofuel crops.
Impact on soil is another environmental concern that, again, is not unique to biofuels.
For rural areas that fertilize with crop wastes and manure rather than external inputs,
biomass production could lead to dramatic declines in soil fertility and structure. But,
there are also exceptions. Biofuel plants such as jatropha and pongamia that grow on
marginal lands have potential to improve soil quality and coverage and reduce erosion
while their oilcakes can provide organic nutrients for improving soil.8 There are many
different scenarios and rigorous lifecycle analysis of potential environmental impacts is
needed of different biofuel production systems to ensure the development of
environmentally friendly biofuel programmes.
7
WWF, 2006, Sustainability Standards for Bioenergy, Germany.
8
S. Kartha, 2006, “Environmental Effects of Bioenergy” in Hazell, P. and Pachauri, R.(eds) Bioenergy and
agriculture: promises and challenges Focus 14, Brief 5, December. Washington, DC: IFPRI.
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
In reality, biofuels are not different from other cash crops but high demand and rapid
expansion of biofuel production could increase conflict over land rights and utilization.
If land tenure systems are weak, there is risk of appropriation of land by large private
entities interested in the lucrative biofuels markets. The poor, who often farm under
difficult conditions in remote and fragile areas and generally have little negotiating
power, may be tempted to sell their land at low prices or where land is “de jure” owned
by the state (typical in most African countries), find their land allocated to large, outside
investors.
Appropriate policies for biofuels should be developed and integrated into a broader
strategy of protecting land rights of the poor and disadvantaged, including Indigenous
People, who are mostly at risk of becoming “bio-fuel refugees”, to ensure that they retain
ownership or usufruct rights to their land. Prioritizing improvement of land policies and
land administration systems will be important to maximize the extent to which poor
smallholder farmers can benefit (particularly those with insecure or customary tenure)
or, in some cases, to protect them.
It should be noted that competition for land uses between food and fuel is not as much
an overriding issue in many developing countries, where land patterns, conditions and
uses are different from those in the developed world.9 Africa’s population density is lower
than in Europe and the U.S., and land use is less a factor in production than the
competing use of water.
Moreover, many developing countries have large areas of land better suited for biofuel
production than for food crops. Marginal and unused lands in developing countries are
suitable for cultivation of biofuel crops that grow under adverse agro-ecological
conditions. India’s Ministry of Rural Development reports that, of the 306 million ha of
land, 173 million ha are under cultivation with the rest classified as eroded farmland or
non-arable wasteland.10 A study conducted in the country determined that more than 30
million ha could be used to produce bio-diesel. Similarly it is claimed that by producing
biofuel on 300 000 ha of its 4.6 million ha under crop, Tanzania could “match current fuel
imports.”11
While some of the aforementioned claims are perhaps exaggerated and the production
from these areas may be uneconomic unless more productive varieties of suitable crops
are developed, the central point remains that there are other options in pursuing biofuel
9
R.Slater, 2007, Biofuels, Agriculture and Poverty Reduction, Overseas Development Institute (ODI).
10
D. Fairless, “Biofuel: The Little Shrub that Could – Maybe”, Nature, October 10, 2007.
11
S. De Keiser and H. Hongo, 2005, “Farming for Energy for Better Livelihoods in Southern Africa – FELISA”,
Paper presented at the PfA-TaTEDO Policy Dialogue Conference on the Role of Renewable Energy for Poverty
Alleviation and Sustainable Development in Africa, Dar-es-Salaam, 22 June 2005.
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
development. It is important to develop biofuel policies that avoid land use competition
between food and fuel crops by producing biofuels from non-edible crops such as
pongamia and jatropha that are suitable for degraded lands or from tropical sugar beet
that can grow in alkaline and sodic soils, or by using multi-purpose crops such as sweet
sorghum that allow both food and fuel to be harvested from the same crop.
There are other options to growing bio-fuel crops (other than food crops) and the issue in
many developing countries, especially those that are both net importers of food and fossil
fuel, is not food versus fuel. Instead, the issue is managing limited water and land
resources to promote both food and fuel production.
Poverty alleviation and energy provision are linked: availability of local energy is
fundamental to intensifying agriculture and agricultural development is essential to
poverty alleviation. Impact of rural electrification on poverty is best demonstrated by
comparing the stastistics between in India and China (see Chart 2). In this context, FAO
notes the insufficient emphasis on bio-energy as a solution to the needs of the 1.6 billion
people who lack access to electricity and on its potential to improve the lives of the 2.4
billion who use traditional biomass, which accounts for 90 per cent of energy
consumption in poor countries but is often unhealthy, inefficient and environmentally
unsustainable.
Two thirds of the low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) for which data exist are also
energy-deficit, with 25 of the 47 poorest countries totally dependent on imported fuels,
again showing the impact of energy (or lack thereof) on poverty. These countries use
much of their available funds to import oil with little left to support economic growth. Oil-
importing poor countries have been hit hardest by soaring oil prices that are worsening
their balance of payments. Biofuels development can improve foreign exchange reserves
of most of these countries, either by substituting for imports of oil or by generating
revenues through biofuel exports. Eitherway, it would contribute to the economic
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
Many of these farmers can benefit from the production of biofuels, especially from crops
that do not compete with production of food crops (such as jatropha and pongamia) or
multiple-use, low water-usage crops (such as sweet sorghum and cassava) that can meet
the varied needs of small producers for food, cash income and animal feed. Other biofuel
crops, such as tropical sugar beet, are as efficient as sugar cane in producing bio-ethanol
but require far less water and, most importantly, can grow in alkaline or sodic soils that
are basically unsuitable for food crop production.
While biofuels offer a potential source of renewable energy and large new markets for
agricultural produce, the issue is how to meet the energy and food needs of developing
countries, many of which are both net food and fuel importers and suffer from acute
shortages of foreign exchange. Agricultural policy encouraging growth of biomass in
marginal rather than prime agricultural areas would serve the dual purpose of meeting
national energy and food needs. It would also require: (a) improving both food and
energy crops to ensure that the plants selected for production in remote areas have the
productivity to be competitive: and (b) investing in soil and water conservation practices
and infrastructure to ensure competitive development of biofuels. Such policies should
also aim to develop an active rural energy policy as this would provide the basis for
intensifying agriculture and with it, food security.
One challenge is to design and implement policy measures to ensure that the growing
use of bio-energy is conducive to reducing poverty and hunger and, thus, that “bio-
energy becomes pro-poor”. This will be the case if the production is labour intensive, the
processing technology for provision of local energy is simple and there is promotion of
public-private sector partnerships when producing for national or international markets.
Economies of scale are necessary for farmers and developing countries to take
advantage of biofuel opportunity. Yet, small-scale farmers face obstacles in accessing
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
supply chains, transporting crops to processing plants or selling through middlemen and
policy measures would be required to ensure that small farmers are part of the national
drive to promote biofuel production.
Existing institutions also have a crucial role in making bio-energy pro-poor. Cooperatives
or producer companies, for instance, can bundle the interests of the poor, accumulate
and attract capital and partnerships for the necessary investments, organize feedstock
supplies in large quantities and, in turn, create a countervailing power to the larger firms
operating in the energy market.
Loss of access to land. The sheer speed of biofuel expansion may generate new
pressures on land tenure arrangements, leading to alienation. There is considerable fear
that the poor may either sell or be forced to relocate as the rush to meet increasing
demand gathers momentum.
As biofuel development is taking place rapidly, this issue needs to be addressed as a
matter of urgency – to move beyond debate and advise farmers and governments of the
opportunities and risks associated with biofuel production.
Unfair business practices. Smallholder farmers and rural people engaged in supplying
private companies with raw materials for biofuel processing often lack legal recourse in
the event of reneged contracts. Pro-poor organizations are needed that can provide
countervailing power to the affluent companies involved in up-stream processing and
distribution.
Environmental risks. Agricultural practices that are not environmentally friendly could
lead to soil degradation and depletion of natural resources. Policies promoting sustainable
farming activities, such as conservation agriculture, can protect the natural resource
endowments of the poor and avoid bad practices such as deforestation that would
increase GHG emissions. The relative advantage of reducing GHG emissions following
less intensive farming indicates that incentives need to be provided to developing
countries, especially poor farmers, to encourage them to mitigate the effect of climate
change.
Natural risks. Farmers involved in biofuel production are subject to the effects of
extreme weather situations such as droughts or floods. These are natural risks and, as
with all other crops, measures need to be considered to mitigate their effects through
insurance mechanisms.
Decrease in price of fossil fuel. There is some risk that the price of fossil fuels could
decline, rendering biofuels noncompetitive, although experts generally agree that with
rising demand and depleting reserves, there is little probability of this occurring.
Paradigm shift could create losers. It is important for the donor community and
governments to ameliorate the impact as biofuel production gathers momentum.
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
Energy markets are much larger than the food markets. The emerging markets for biofuels offer an unparalled
opportunity to benefit the poor on a large scale through agriculture. While there are some risks, the key question
is: Are they so insurmountable to deprive many of the poor from taking advantage of this opportunity to improve
their livelihoods? In this context, is it time to move beyond the “food vs Fuel” debate and not view it as just
another trade-off.
IFAD has financed, inter alia, two research grants to address these issues and enable
poor rural people to take advantage of the huge market demand for biofuel production
and meet their varied needs, while expanding employment and income-generating
opportunities.
The first grant, which was approved by the Executive Board in September 2007 is being
implemented by ICRISAT and other partners, focuses on biofuel crops, such as jatropha,
pongamia, sweet sorghum and cassava, that can grow under adverse agro-ecological
conditions that prevail in remote areas. It explores the potential for improving plant
productivity and integrating these crops into smallholder farming systems. The grant will
also study the economics of rural electrification and assess its impact on poverty. The
second grant , which is being implemented in partnership with the Asian Development
Bank, will identify strategies for developing biofuel crops to benefit rural poor households
in the Mekong sub-region.
Other efforts to explore pro-poor options for biofuel development include: (a)
establishment of private sector links to promote biofuel crops of special relevance to the
poor living in areas affected by salinity and (b) global consultations organized in
partnership with UN Foundation, FAO and ICRISAT to guide the research programme.
Other planned activities will focus on building partnerships with bi-lateral and multi-
lateral donors and research institutions to mainstream biofuel development, and working
closely with other International Land Coalition (ILC) members and other UN agencies to
address land issues that might arise as biofuel development gains momentum. IFAD is
also in the process of finalizing a corporate land policy and developing operational
guidelines that can help guide the integration of activities aimed at strenghtening land
tenure security of its target group into new grant and loan projects and programmes.
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
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Biofuel Expansion: Challenges, Risks and Opportunities for Rural Poor People
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