MODULE 2

STRATEGIC
ANALYSIS
Strategic Intent

Hierarchy of objectives
 Vision
A strategic vision is a roadmap showing the
route a company intends to take in
developing and strengthening its business.
It paints a picture of a company’s
destination and provides a rationale for
going there. The vision statement answers
the question, “where are we going and
why?”
 Elements of a vision statement
• Envisioned future : future business
scope

• Core values: the beliefs, business

principles, and practices that guide the
conduct of its business, and the behavior
of company personnel.
 Why Vision?
• Breaks the firm out of boundary thinking.
• Provides continuity for new product –
market scopes
• Communicates purpose to stakeholders
• Promotes interest and commitment
• Nurtures a creative environment
• Encourages and builds confidence
 Characteristics of an effectively worded
Vision statement
• Graphic
• Directional
• Focused
• Flexible
• Feasible
• Desirable for long term interest of
stakeholders.
• Easy to communicate.
 Common shortcoming in Company
Vision statements
• Incomplete- short on desired destination
• Vague in terms of
product/market/customer/technology focus
• Bland- lack motivational power
• Not Distinct
• Too generic
• Too reliant on ornamental superlatives.
Communicating Vision internally and
externally
• Internally vision is expected to motivate and
generate enthusiasm. Normally companies
summarize the vision statement in a
powerful slogan for internal circulation.

• Externally vision is meant to establish

credibility , trust and pride in its
stakeholders.
 Exelon’s
Strategic Vision
One Company, One Vision.
Exelon strives to build exceptional value - by
becoming the best and most consistently profitable
electricity and gas company in the United States.
To succeed, we must . . .

Live up to our commitments . . .

Perform at world-class levels . . .

Invest in our consolidating industry . . .

Examples of Strategic Visions

Red Hat Linux

To extend our position as the most trusted Linux and open
source provider to the enterprise. We intend to grow the
market for Linux through a complete range of enterprise Red
Hat Linux software, a powerful Internet management platform,
and associated support and services.

Wells Fargo
We want to satisfy all of our customers’ financial needs,
help them success financially, be the premier provider
of financial services in every one of our markets, and
be known as one of America’s great companies.
 Examples of Strategic Visions

Wyeth
Our vision is to lead the way to a healthier world. By
carrying out this vision at every level of our organization,
we will be recognized by our employees, customers, and
shareholders as the best pharmaceutical company in the world,
resulting in value for all. We will achieve this by:
• Leading the world in innovation by linking pharmaceutical,
biotech, and vaccines technologies
• Making quality, integrity, and excellence hallmarks
of the way we do business
• Attracting, developing, and motivating the best people
• Continually growing improving our business
Examples of Strategic Visions

Dental Products Division of 3M

Corporation
Become THE supplier of choice to the global dental professional
markets, providing world-class quality and innovative products.
[All employees of the division wear badges bearing these
words, and whenever a new product or business procedure is
being considered, management asks “Is this representative of
THE leading dental company?”]

Nike
To bring innovation inspiration to every athlete in the world .
Examples of Strategic Visions

Intel
Our vision: Getting to a billion connected computers
worldwide, millions of servers, and trillions of dollars
of e-commerce. Intel’s core mission is being the
building block supplier to the Internet economy and
spurring efforts to make the Internet more useful.
Being connected is now at the center of people’s
computing experience. We are helping to expand the
capabilities of the PC platform and the Internet . . . We
have seen only the early stages of deployment of
digital technologies.
 Examples of Strategic Visions

Heinz
Our vision, quite simply, is to be the world’s premier food company,
offering nutritious, superior tasting foods to people everywhere.
Being the premier food company does not mean being the
biggest but it does mean being the best in terms of consumer
value, customer service, employee talent, and consistent and
predictable growth.

General Electric
We will become number one or number two in every market we
serve, and revolutionize this company to have
the speed and agility of a small enterprise.
 Mission
Raison de etre ( reason for existence) :

 Also known as socio economic purpose.

 Tends to establish what it wants to do for
the customers and how.
 Element of philanthropy and stakeholder
orientation got added with the adoption of
social responsibility concept.
 3-dimensions to mission
statements

• Served customer groups: categories of

customers
• Served customer functions: customer
needs
• Technologies utilized: ways of serving
needs.
 Key Elements of
a Mission Statement
• Three factors to consider

– Customer needs –
What is being satisfied

– Customer groups –
Who is being satisfied

– Technologies/resources/business approaches used

and activities performed –
How customer needs are satisfied
 Why mission?
• Enables management to identify the
boundary between what to do and what not.
• Crystallizes top management’s view of the
firm’s long term direction
• Helps mangers to keep the firm in right
track.
• Identifies a common path of action
• Provides for a yardstick to measure
performance against aspirations.
 Vision vs. Mission
• Vision is about future business scope
whereas mission is about present
business scope and purpose.

• Vision is destination focused whereas

mission is activity oriented.
METHODS & TECHNIQUES USED FOR
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS …

SWOT, BCG, GE Matrix , McKinsey 7S

Balanced Scorecard
Competitive Advantage Profile
Strategic Advantage profile
Internal Factor Analysis Summary
 ENVIRONMENTAL
SCANNING

• Environmental scanning is a process of

gathering, analyzing, and dispensing
information for tactical or strategic
purposes.
 TECHNIQUES OF
ENVIRONMENT SCANNING

 SWOT
 ETOP
 SWOT ANALYSIS
• Identify & classify firm’s resources-S&W
• Combine firm’s strength into specific capabilities –
Corporate capability- may be distinctive competence
• Strategy that best exploits the firms resources
• Identify resource gaps & Invest in upgrading
 ETOP

• It is a process of dividing the environment

into different sectors and then analyzing
the impact of each sector on the
organization.
 ETOP (contd..)
• Divide the environment into a number of sectors

• Analyze the impact of each sector on the organization.

• Each sector may have a number of factors.

• The impact of each (factor in a) sector on the

organization is given in a statement form.

• This will lead to identification of opportunities and threats

for the organization.
 ETOP (contd..)
• Environmental analysis method
– Environmental threat and opportunity profile for an
organization

– Divide the environment into different sectors and then

analyzing the impact of each sector on the organization.
• Economic
• Market
• International
• Political
• Regulatory
• Social
• Supplier
• Technological
Environmental sectors Nature of impact Impact of each sector

Economic Growing affluence among

urban consumers, rising
disposable incomes & living
standards.

Market Organized sector a virtual

oligopoly with major
manufacturers, buyers
critical & better informed,
overall industry growth rate
not encouraging, growth
rate for niche market like
sports, trekking etc is high.

International Global imports growing but

India’s share shrinking,
major importers are the US
& EU but India exports
mainly to Africa.
Political Bicycle principal mode of
transport for low & middle
income, Industry too small
to draw attention.

Regulatory Parts & components

reserved for SSI, bicycle
industry a thrust area for
exports,

Social Environment & health

friendly transport option,
wide usage, as recreation,
convenient in traffic,
customers preference
Supplier Mostly ancillaries in small-
scale sector supply parts &
components, rising steel
prices, industrial
concentration in Punjab &
Tamilnadu.

Technological Up gradation in progress,

import of machinery
simple, product innovations
ongoing like battery
operated & lightweight
foldable cycles
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
Environment:-
• Aggregate of all conditions, events and
influences that surround and affect an
organization

Shape the future of the organization

 CHARACTERISTICS OF
ENVIRONMENT

• UNCERTAIN
• COMPLEX
• DYNAMIC
• MANY-SIDED
• WIDE RANGING INFLUENCE
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
• Monitoring, Evaluating and disseminating of
information from the external and internal
environments to key people within the
organization.

• Done to avoid strategic surprise and maintain

long term corporate health.

• Positive relationship is demonstrated between

environmental scanning and profits
• EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT:
Surrounding Factors outside an
organization which give rise to opportunities
and threats for the organization.

• INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
Surrounding Factors inside an organization
that give rise to strengths and weaknesses of
an organization to manage the opportunities
and threats posed by the external
environments.
Opportunity:
Favorable position in the external
environment that consolidates and
strengthens its position.

Threat:
Unfavorable position in the external
environment that may cause damage
and risk to the organization.
Strength:
Inherent capacity within an organization
that helps it to gain some sort of
strategic advantage.

Weakness:
inbuilt constraint or limitation of the
organization that can cause strategic
disadvantage.
• IS ENVIRONMENTAL
SCANNING NECESSARY?
 NEED FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
APPRAISAL
• To learn about events and trends in the
environment and project the future position in
each factor of the environment.

• To identify the favorable and unfavorable factors

of the environment from the firm’s view

• To find the opportunities and threats embedded

in the environmental events and trends.
• To assess the scope of various opportunities
and identify the ones having the potential of
becoming good businesses

• To draw up the attractiveness profile of these

opportunities

• To draw an opportunity threat profile

• To identify those opportunities that will help in

reducing the strategic gap
 THE NEED GAP

DESIRED
PERFORMANCE

NEED GAP SEARCH FOR

TO BE BRIDGED OPPORTUNITY
CURRENT
THREAT
STRATEGY
EXPECTED PERFORMANCE
OF CURRENT STRATEGY
 RELEVANT EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT

• Part of general environment, having

strategic significance for the organization.

• Will include those factors that are highly

related to the mission, vision, objectives
and strategies of the company.
 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
• MACRO ENVIRONMENT • MICRO ENVIRONMENT
(Societal environment) (Task environment)

General forces that do not Elements or groups that

directly affect the short run directly affect the company
activities of the organization and in turn are affected by it.
but can have an influence on (Issues directly related to
the long run decisions of the business-unions etc.)
organization. (political, laws
and regulations etc.)
 CONSTITUENTS OF MACRO
ENVIRONMENT
• Demographic environment
• Socio – cultural environment
• Economic environment
• Political environment
• Natural environment
• Technology environment
• Legal environment
• Government policies
 Demographic environment
CHARACTERISTICS OF POPULATION
• Size
• Growth rate
• Age distribution
• Religious composition
• Literacy levels
• Composition of workforce
• Household patterns
• Regional characteristics
• Population shifts
 Socio – cultural environment
FORCES THAT REGULATE THE VALUES,
MORALS AND CUSTOMS OF THE
SOCIETY
• Culture
• Social class
• Traditions
• Beliefs
• Values
• Attitudes
• Life styles
 Economic environment
Factors related to means of production and
distribution of wealth and affect the
organization’s business
• Economic structure
• Stage of economic development
• GDP/ GNP trends
• Per capita income
• Real disposable income
• Monetary, fiscal and industrial policies
• Infrastructural factors
• Unemployment level
• Wage levels
• Membership in regional economic associations
 Political environment
Factors affecting the management of public affairs and
having an impact on the business of an organization

• Form of government
• Political ideology
• Tax laws
• Stability of governments
• Government’s attitude towards business
• Strength of opposition groups.
• Terrorist activities
• Protectionist sentiment
 Natural environment
Natural forces having an impact on
organizations
• Ecology
• Endowment of natural resources; raw
materials, energy, gas
• Climate
• Pollution levels
 Technological environment
• Forces that generate problem solving
inventions
• Total government and industry spending
on R&D
• New developments in technology
• Rules related to technology transfer
• Energy availability and cost
• Patent – trademark laws
 Legal environment
• Laws and legislations related to business
• Corporate affairs
• Consumer protection
• Employee protection
• Sectoral protection
• Corporate protection
• Protection of society
• Regulations on products, prices and distribution
• Protection of national firms against foreign firms.
• Any Other Government policies that may affect business
organizations.
 CONCERNS TO BE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
SCANNING
• EVENTS: important and specific occurrences
within each environmental sector

• TRENDS: tendencies or course of actions along

the events

• ISSUES: specific factors related to the events

and trends

• EXPECTATIONS: demands made by related

stakeholders on certain issues
• Environmental scanning is necessary for
the strategy formulation (in the SM
process). Organizations develop their own
approaches for environmental scanning.
 IDENTIFYING STRATEGIC
EXTERNAL FACTORS
• External environment is vast and
companies respond differently to the very
same factors

• Personal values of a corporation’s

manager and the success of current
strategy may bias their perception of what
to monitor in the external environment and
how to interpret the changes
 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

• INDUSTRY: a group of firms producing

similar products or services.

• INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: examination of

important group of stakeholders, related
closely to the business.
• Any organization is most concerned about
the intensity of competition in its
business / industry.

• The degree of this intensity of competition

determines the profit potential of the
company in the long run (return on
investment capital)
DETERMINANTS OF INTENSITY
OF COMPETITION
Potential entrants
Threat of new
entrants

Bargaining power Industry Bargaining power of

of suppliers competition buyers
Suppliers Buyers

Rivalry
amongst
firms
Threat of substitute
products or
services
Substitutes
• The individual strength of each of the force will contribute
to the intensity of competition.

• A stronger one will be a threat and a weaker one an

opportunity

• It is still possible for the company to convert its threat

into an opportunity in the long run.

• By analyzing each of these force an organization can

determine the amount of competition it will have to face .
 Threat of new entrants
Bring new capacity, desire to gain market share and
resources.
Possible Entry Barriers leading to low threat of new entrants.

• Economies of scale
• Product differentiation
• Capital requirements
• Switching Costs
• Access to distribution channels
• Government policies
 Rivalry amongst firms
Intense rivalry is related to a number of
factors
• Number of competitors
• Rate of growth of industry competitors
• Product or service characteristics
• Capacity
• Height of exit barriers
• Diversity of rivals
 Threat of substitute products or
services
All those products or services that appear to
be different but can satisfy the same need

Threat is high when:

• Differentiation is not unique.

• Effect is large if switching costs are low
 Bargaining power of buyers
Effect:
• Can ask for bringing down prices
• Demand Increase in quality
• Demand Increase or diversity in number of
services
• Has the ability to play the competitors
against each other.
A buyer or group of buyers may be
considered powerful
• If they buy huge proportion of a firm’s products or services

• Has the ability to integrate backward

• Alternative suppliers are plenty

• Changing supplier cost is low

• The purchased product accounts for a majority of the buyers

cost

• The purchased product makes little difference to his ultimate use

 Bargaining power of suppliers

Can affect the industry by raising prices

Reducing quality

Suppliers may become powerful when

• Less no. of suppliers present but supply to many companies

• Unique products and services with high switching costs

• Ready substitutes not available

• Suppliers can integrate forward

• Buyer is not important for the supplier

 Competitor Analysis
• Study for each company and not industry wise as the
case was in industry analysis
• Competitor analysis build on 4 components
– Future goals of a competitor

– Its current strategy

– The key assumptions that the competitor makes

about itself
– capabilities of competitor in terms of strengths and weakness
• Sizing up strategies and competitive strengths
and weaknesses of rivals involves assessing
Which rival has the best strategy? Which rivals appear to have
weak strategies?

Which firms are poised to gain market share, and which ones
seen destined to lose ground?

Which rivals are likely to rank among the industry leaders five
years from now? Do any up-and-coming rivals have strategies and
the resources to overtake the current industry leader?
 Considerations Involved in
Predicting Moves of Rivals
• Which rivals need to increase their unit sales and market
share? What strategies are rivals most likely to pursue?
• Which rivals have a strong incentive, along with
resources, to make major strategic changes?
• Which rivals are good candidates to be acquired? Which
rivals have the resources to acquire others?
• Which rivals are likely to enter new geographic markets?

• Which rivals are likely to expand their product offerings

and enter new product segments?
 Q #6: What Are the Key Factors
for Competitive Success?
• KSFs are those competitive factors most affecting every
industry member’s ability to prosper. They concern
– Specific strategy elements
– Product attributes
– Resources
– Competencies
– Competitive capabilities
that a company needs to have to be competitively successful
• KSFs are attributes that spell the difference between
– Profit and loss
– Competitive success or failure
 Identifying Industry
Key Success Factors
• Pinpointing KSFs involves determining

– On what basis do customers choose

between competing brands of sellers?

– What resources and competitive capabilities does a

seller need to have to be competitively successful?

– What does it take for sellers to achieve a sustainable

competitive advantage?

• KSFs consist of the 3 - 5 major determinants

of financial and competitive success
 Example: KSFs for
Beer Industry
• Full utilization of brewing capacity –
to keep manufacturing costs low

• Strong network of wholesale distributors –

to gain access to retail outlets

• Clever advertising –
to induce beer drinkers to
buy a particular brand
Example: KSFs for Apparel
Manufacturing Industry
• Appealing designs and
color combinations –
to create buyer appeal

• Low-cost manufacturing
efficiency – to keep selling
prices competitive
 Example: KSFs for Tin and
Aluminum Can Industry
• Locating plants close to end-use customers
–
to keep costs of shipping empty cans low

• Ability to market plant output within

economical shipping distances
 Q #7: Does the Outlook for the
Industry Present an Attractive
Opportunity?
• Involves assessing whether the industry
and competitive environment is attractive
or unattractive for earning good profits

• Under certain circumstances, a firm uniquely

well-situated in an otherwise unattractive industry
can still earn unusually good profits

– Attractiveness is relative, not absolute

– Conclusions have to be drawn from the

perspective of a particular company
 Factors to Consider in
Assessing Industry Attractiveness
• Industry’s market size and growth potential
• Whether competitive forces are conducive to rising/falling
industry profitability
• Whether industry profitability will be favorably or unfavorably
impacted by driving forces
• Degree of risk and uncertainty in industry’s future
• Severity of problems facing industry
• Firm’s competitive position in industry vis-à-vis rivals
• Firm’s potential to capitalize on
vulnerabilities of weaker rivals
• Whether firm has sufficient resources to
defend against unattractive industry factors
 Assessing Industry
Attractiveness

The degree to which an industry is

attractive or unattractive is often not
the same for all industry participants
or potential entrants.
The opportunities an industry
presents depend partly on a
company’s ability to capture them.
 Balanced Scorecard
 Balanced Scorecard – A model integrating financial
and non financial measures. (Kaplan & Norton 1996)

 Causal link between outcomes and performance

drivers of such outcomes

 Translates the vision and strategy of a business unit

into objectives and measures in 4 distinct areas
 Financial
 Customer
 Internal Business process
 Learning and growth
 The Balanced Scorecard
Purpose of Balanced Scorecard:

A method of implementing a business strategy by

translating it into a set of performance measures
derived from strategic goals that allocate rewards to
executives and managers based on their success at
meeting or exceeding the performance measures.
 Objectives
• Tangible benchmarks to achieve.
• Quantitative
• Relatively short term
• Directional
• Multiplicity
• Performance measures.
 Setting Objectives

• Purpose of setting objectives

– Converts vision into specific performance targets
– Creates yardsticks to track performance
– Pushes firm to be inventive, intentional, and
focused in its actions
• Setting challenging, achievable
objectives guards against
– Complacency
– Internal confusion
 Characteristics of Objectives
• Represent commitment to achieve
specific performance targets
• Spell-out how much of what kind
of performance by when
• Well-stated objectives are
– Quantifiable
– Measurable
– Contain a deadline for achievement

Establishing objectives converts the

vision into concrete performance outcomes!
Areas where objectives may be
set
• Profitability
• Efficiency
• Growth
• Shareholder wealth
• Resource utilization
• Contribution to employees and society
• Technological leadership
Using balanced scorecard for
objective setting
The Balanced Scorecard is a management
system (not only a measurement system)
that enables organizations to clarify their
vision and strategy and translate them into
action..
Using balanced scorecard for
objective setting(contd..)
It provides feedback around both the
internal business processes and external
outcomes in order to continuously improve
strategic performance and results. When
fully deployed, the balanced scorecard
transforms strategic planning from an
academic exercise into the nerve center of
an enterprise
 BALANCED SCORECARD- KAPLAN &
NORTON
4 performance measures
• Customer perspective
• Internal business perspective
• Innovation & learning perspective
• Financial perspective
 The Balanced Scorecard
(Source: Kaplan & Norton, 1996)
Reasons for the Need of a Balanced
Scorecard
1. Focus on traditional financial accounting
measures such as ROA, ROE gives misleading
signals to executives with regards to quality and
innovation. It is important to look at the means
used to achieve outcomes such as ROA, not just
focus on the outcomes themselves.
 The Balanced Scorecard
(Source: Kaplan & Norton, 1996)
Reasons for the Need of a Balanced
Scorecard
2. Executive performance needs to be judged on
success at meeting a mix of both financial and
non-financial measures to effectively operate a
business.
 The Balanced Scorecard
(Source: Kaplan & Norton, 1996)

Reasons for the Need of a Balanced

Scorecard
3. Some non-financial measures are drivers of
financial outcome measures which give
managers more control to take corrective actions
quickly.
 The Balanced Scorecard
(Source: Kaplan & Norton, 1996)
Reasons for the Need of a Balanced
Scorecard
4. Too many measures, such as hundreds of
possible cost accounting index measures, can
confuse and distract an executive from focusing
on important strategic priorities. The balanced
scorecard disciplines an executive to focus on
several important measures that drive the
strategy.
Casual link between the measures

Financial
Perspective
How do we look to
our Shareholders?

Customer Internal
Perspective Business
How do our Perspective
customers look at What we must
us? excel at?
Learning and
Growth
Perspective
How can we continue
to improve?
Linking BSC and Strategy

Learning & Growth

Drivers  Outcomes

Strategic Internal Process

Initiatives Drivers  Outcomes
Financial
Goals
Customer Perspective
Drivers  Outcomes
The BS covers four important
perspectives in a business:

• Financial: is the company attractive to

shareholders?

• Customer: Does the company provide value

to its customers?

• Internal Business: What does the company

excel at?

• Innovation & learning: Is the company

improving and innovating continually?
Steps in a building a balanced scorecard
 BALANCED SCORECARD
Perspectives with hypothetical metrics
CUSTOMER
- Customer Satisfaction
- Effective Service/Partnership
INTERNAL BUSINESS
PROCESSES
FINANCIAL MISSION - Acquisition Excellence
- Optimum Cost Efficiency of - Most Effective Use of
Purchasing Operations VISION Contracting Approaches
- Streamlined Processes
STRATEGY - On-Time Delivery
- Supplier Satisfaction
- Socioeconomics
LEARNING
AND
GROWTH
- Access to Strategic Information
- Employee Satisfaction
- Organization Structured for
Continuous Improvement
- Quality Workforce
Market Analysis
Tools of Market Analysis
Market Structure
 Market Structure
• Nature of the market structure determines
marketing strategy:
– Pricing strategy
– Branding?
– Product Differentiation?
– Market Penetration?
– Market Skimming?
– Direct Selling?
Market Position
 Market Position

• Market Niche – small part of an existing market

• Market Leader – maintain dominant position in the market? Egs:

P&G, HLL, Reliance, Ranbaxy, Nokia, Sony

• Market Follower – Follow the market leader – pricing, product

development, etc. Egs.: Retail outlets

• Market Challenger –adopt market leader’s position. Egs HP

(Encirclement attack), Sony’s Bypass attack to Nintendo,
Vodaphone
Market Objectives
Market Segments
Which Segment?
 Which Segment?

• Mass Markets – high volume, low margin goods

– confectionary, cars, clothing, food stuffs

• Multiple Segments (cross) – appealing to

wider range of groups - town, country, gender,
lifestyle, social class?

• Single Segment – often a specialised product,

e.g. machinery, exclusive goods
Scenario analysis
 Scenario analysis
• Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible
future events by considering alternative possible
outcomes (scenarios)
• For example, in economics and finance, a financial
institution might attempt to forecast several possible
scenarios for the economy (e.g. rapid growth, moderate
growth, slow growth) and it might also attempt to
forecast financial market returns (for bonds, stocks and
cash) in each of those scenarios. It might consider sub-
sets of each of the possibilities. It might further seek to
determine correlations and assign probabilities to the
scenarios (and sub-sets if any)
 Use of scenario planning by
managers
• The basic concepts of the process are
relatively simple. In terms of the overall
approach to forecasting, they can be
divided into three main groups of activities
(which are, generally speaking, common
to all long range forecasting processes):
• Environmental analysis
• Scenario planning
• Corporate strategy
• The first of these groups quite simply comprises the
normal . This is almost exactly the same as that which
should be undertaken as the first stage of any serious
long-range planning. However, the quality of this analysis
is especially important in the context of scenario planning.
• The central part represents the specific techniques -
covered here - which differentiate the scenario forecasting
process from the others in long-range planning.
• The final group represents all the subsequent processes
which go towards producing the corporate strategy and
plans. Again, the requirements are slightly different but in
general they follow all the rules of sound long-range
planning.
 Process for scenario planning
• The ACTUAL STEPS USED BY Shell, is a six
step process:
– Decide drivers for change/assumptions
• Brainstorming
• Important and uncertain
– Bring drivers together into a viable framework
– Produce 7-9 initial mini-scenarios
• Complementary scenarios
• Testing
– Reduce to 2-3 scenarios
– Draft the scenarios
– Identify the issues arising
 Use of scenarios
• Containers for the drivers/event strings
• Tests for consistency
• Positive perspectives
THANK YOU