Education scenario and needs in India: Building a perspective

for 2025
Suman Sachdeva
SECTION-I

The Indian Constitution resolves to provide quality education to all and in an effort to
fulfill the educational needs of the country specifically for the diverse societies and
cultures of the country the government has chalked out different educational categories:
Elementary education, Secondary education, Higher education, Adult education,
Technical and Vocational education. Despite serious handicaps of means and resources,
the country has built up during the last 50 years, a very large system of education and has
created a vast body of men and women equipped with a high order of scientific and
technological capabilities, robust humanist and philosophical thought and creativity. It
would be worthwhile to observe the trends in the different sectors of education from post
Independence period to the present scenario.

Sectors of Education

Elementary Education
Graph I: Comparative Statement of Number of At the time of Independence, only
Institutions in 1950-51 and 1998-99
fourteen percent of the population was
6.5
6
6.27
literate and only one child out of three had
5.5
5
4.5
been enrolled in primary school. The need
4
3.5 for universal education for all children in
the age group of 6-14 years recognized as
3
2.1 1.9
2.5
2
1.5
1 0.13
a crucial input for nation building, was
0.5
0 given due consideration in successive Five
1950-51 1998-99
Year Plans and has resulted in a manifold
Primary Schools (Classes I-V) Upper Primary Schools (Classes VI-VIII)
increase of spatial spread, infrastructure
facilities, increased coverage of various
Comparative Statement of Numbers of Students social groups; but the goal of providing
(Upper Primary Stage) in 1950-51 and 1998-99 basic education to all continues to be
403.53 elusive.
400

300

200 The elementary education system of

100 31.19 12.7
57.58 India has expanded into one of the largest
0
1950-51 1998-99
in the world The number of primary
schools increased from 2.15 lakhs in
1950-51 to 6.1 lakhs in 1997-98; the
corresponding increase in upper primary
Total Enrolment (in lakh) Gross Enrolment Ratio (percent)

1
schools was from 0.14 lakhs to 1.85 lakhs 1 . These 8.17 lakh schools together enrolled
1110 lakh children as compared to 192 lakh in 1951 2 . Universal provision of education
has been substantially achieved at the primary stage (classes I-V). An estimated 95
percent of the rural population living in 8.26,000 habitatio ns has a primary school within
a walking distance of 1 Km and about 85 percent of the rural population has an upper
primary school within a walking distance of 3 Kms 3 . More than 150 million children are
currently enrolled covering around 90 percent of the children in the age group of 6-14
years. Recent surveys on literacy rates indicate a phenomenal progress in the nineties and
indicate a significant rise in the literacy level. (Refer Table 1.1) According to the
National Sample Survey estimates, the literacy rate has increased about 12 percentage
points in a period of six years from 52.21 in 1991 to 64.20 percent by 1997.
Table 1.1
Year Literacy Rate (%) Number of Schools
Persons Males Females
Primary Upper
Primary
1951 18.33 27.16 8.86 215036 14576
1961 28.31 40.40 15.34 351530 55915
1971 34.45 45.95 21.97 417473 93665
1981 43.56 56.37 29.75 503763 122377
1991 52.21 64.13 39.29 566744 155926
Note: Literacy rates of 1951, 1961 and 1971 relate to population aged five years and above. The rates for
the years 1981 and 1991 relate to the population aged seven years and above.
Source: EFA India: Year 2000 Assessment

Since independence, there has

Graph 2: Comparative Statement of Number Students (Primary
Stage) in 1950-51 and 1998-99

been a substantial increase in

1109.85
1200
1100 enrolment at all levels of
1000
900
800 education, five fold from 19.2
million to 110.9 million in 1998-
700
600
500
99 at the primary stage; 3.1
400
300 191.54
200 42.6 92.14
100
0 million to 40.4 million in the
1950-51 1998-99
upper primary stage. The gross
Total Enrolment (in lakh) Gross Enrolment Ratio (percent) enrolment ratios of children in the
age group 6-11 increased from 42.6 Graph 5: Enrolment in Primary Classes (I-V)

percent in 1950-51 to 92.14 percent in

1998-99. Likewise, the gross 700
600
enrolment of 11-14 years age group 500

increased from 12.7 percent in 1950- 400

300
51 to 57.58 percent in 1998-99. 200
100
0
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1995-96 1997-98 1998-99

Boys Girls

1
Source: Education in India 1992, and Selected Educational Statistics, 1997-98. Department of Education
2
Source: Annual report 1999-2000 Ministry of Human Resource Development
3
EFA India: Year 2000 assessment
2
Girls enrolment has grown at the primary stage from 0.4 million in 1950-51 to 4.8 million
in 1998-99 and at the upper primary stage from 0.5 million to 16.3 million. The rate of
growth of enrolment of girls has been higher than that of boys but disparities still persist-
girls still account for only 43.4 percent of the enrolment at the primary stage and 40.5
percent at the upper primary stage.

The enrolment of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled tribes has increased considerably at
the primary stage. The participation of SCs and STs is now more or less in proportion to
their share in population at the primary level.

Despite such significant achievements in the recent years, it is realized that there are
serious problems of gender, regional, sectional and caste disparities in UEE. A significant
proportion of children continue to drop out due to socioeconomic and cultural factors as
also due to lack of adequate infrastructure, shortage of teachers and unsatisfactory quality
of education provided.

Graph 6: Enrolment in Middle Classes (VI-VIII)

The country has the dubious distinction
of having the largest number of
250
illiterates and out of school children in
the world-30% of the world’s adult
200

illiterates (300 million) and 21.87

150

percent of out-of-school children. At

100

least 24 million children in the age

50

group 6-14 are out of school of whom

0
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1995-96 1997-98 1998-99

Boys Girls
about 60% are girls; about 121.3
million are adult illiterates in the age
group 15.35 of whom about 62 percent are women. Given the demogr aphic pressures the
numbers are likely to increase further. Universalisation of elementary education thus,
poses a formidable challenge to India: the numbers of children dropping out, not
attending school regularly and never enrolled are immense. Quality of education is poor,
teachers are inadequately trained and have lack of motivation. The Constitution of India
refers to free and compulsory education for all children up to the age of 14. The priority
concerns for the country remain particularly with improving the quality of education and
making education effective, enjoyable and relevant to the children. Also, a major concern
is to improve the skills and motivation of teachers, promoting the participation of
communities in the running of schools and enrolling/retaining girls/working children of
urban poor and children with special needs in schools.

Also, in India, a large universe of working children exists such as the street children,
neglected and destitute children, children of sex workers and children practicing as sex
workers. Many of these have been targeted through non- formal initiatives but never
mainstreamed. Also, along with access and retention, the quality of education provided to
them is questionable.

3
Adult Literacy
Since independence, eradication of illiteracy has been one of the major national concerns
of the Government of India. The Kothari Commission (1964-66) emphasized the
importance of spreading literacy as fast as possible and suggested measures for the same.

The Resolution on NPE 1968 not only endorsed the recommendations of the Education
Commission but also reiterated the significance of universal literacy and developing
adult and continuing education as matters of priority. Later, the National Policy on
Education (1986) gave an unqualified priority to programmes for eradication of
illiteracy, particularly among women, members belonging to Scheduled Castes and
Scheduled Tribes particularly in the rural areas.
As per the NSSO survey, the literacy rates have jumped from 52 percent in 1991 to 62
percent in 1997 against the countering factor of population growth. This has to be seen
against the backdrop of an average decadal growth of only 8.5 percent between 1951 and
1991. The wide gap between male and female literacy rates seems to be narrowing as also
the urban and rural difference. Recent surveys indicate an improvement in the pace of
literacy, mobilization of communities for education, provision of a life long opportunity
to non- literates and creation of a learning society.

Secondary Education

Secondary education serves as a bridge between elementary and higher education and
prepares young persons in the age group of 14-18 for entry into higher education.
Children’s population at the secondary and senior level, as projected in 1996-97 by
NSSO has been estimated at 9.66 crores. Against this, the enrolment figures of 1997-98
show that only 2.70 crore are attending schools. Thus, two-thirds of the eligible
population remains out of school system.

Higher Education

Enrolment in Higher Education India, 1901-1997

At independence in 1947, India
inherited a system of higher
700 613
education which was not only
600 546 small but also characterized by
500
402 the persistence of large intra/
400 360
inter- regional imbalances.
300 Determined efforts were made to
200 126 build a network of universities,
48
100 12 23 and their affiliated colleges
0
1901 1917 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1997
which provided tremendous
outreach to a country of vast
Source: Higher Education in India: Vision and Action: Country Paper, Indian
National Commission for Cooperation with UNESCO, Department of
diversities in language as also
Education, MHRD, GOI, New Delhi. in prevailing standards of

4
education at the lower levels.

Teacher-Student Ratio in Higher Education

In the post independence
25
period, higher education
21.1 expanded fast and today India
20
16.8 17.5 ranks very high in terms of the
size of the network of higher
15.1 15.7
14.1 14.2
15 12.6
education institutions, with 6.75
10
million students enrolled and
5 teaching force numbers about
321,000. Students enrolment
0
1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1993-94 1996-97
increased from 263,000 to
6,755,000 by 1996-97, growing
Source: Higher Education in India: Vision and Action: Country Paper, Indian at an estimated rate of 7 per
National Commission for Cooperation with UNESCO, Department of
Education, MHRD, GOI, New Delhi. cent between 1987 and 1993
but now declined to 5.5
percent compound rate of growth, with 14 states having a lower rate. In spite of this
phenomenal growth, the total enrolment, however, forms only about six percent of the
relevant age- group (17- 23) population. The number of students per 100,000 population
has increased significantly since independence. It was only 48 per 100,000 in 1951
increasing to 613 per 100,000 in 1997.

The number of women’s colleges has recorded a substantial increase from 780 colleges in
1986–87 reaching a figure of 1195 in 1996-97. Of the total enrolment, women’s
enrolment accounts for 34 percent. Out of the total number teachers in higher education,
Professors and Readers account for 12.8 and 26.2 % respectively, in the University
Department and University Colleges. In the affiliated colleges there are13.9 % senior
teachers and 81.7 % lecturers. There were 21 students for one teacher in 1996- 97 as
compared to 12 students per teacher in 1965- 66.

The number of students has reached the level of 6.75 million and there are 3,21,000
teachers in the higher education system. A special emphasis has come to be laid on
women’s education. The enrolment of women at the beginning of 1997-98 was 2.303
million, 34 percent of them being of the postgraduate level.

Growth in Higher Education in India

Institutions 1950-51 1990-91 1996-97

Universities* 30 177 214
Colleges 750 7346 9703
Enrolment (‘000s) 263 4925 6755
Teachers (‘000s) 24.0 272.7 321.0
Note: *includes institutions deemed to be universities, but excludes other institutions

5
At the beginning of the year 1999-2000, the total number of students enrolled in the
universities and colleges was 74.18 lakh-12.25 lakh in university departments and 61.93
lakh in the affiliated colleges. Eighty percent of total enrolment was concentrated in the
three faculties of Art (40%), Science (20%) and commerce (20%) while the remaining
20% was absorbed by the professional faculties. Distribution of Enrolment by Level of Higher Education,

Enrolment at the degree level was 65.20 lakh (87.9 1995-96

percent), at the PG level 7.25 lakh (9.8 percent)

and the remaining at research and Diploma/Certificate

Post Graduate

diploma/certificate levels. The enrolment of Research

women students in the year 1999-2000 was 27.74

lakh at the graduate and postgraduate levels,
accounting for 34 percent of the total enrolment. Degree Level

The strength of the faculty went upto 3.42 lakh in

2000.

Vocational Education

Prior to the introduction of vocational courses in general schools and colleges at all
levels, the re have been conventional models of vocational education in operation, in
institution under Technical education, Pharmacy Council, Nursing Council, Dental
council, Agricultural Council, and the Directorate General of Employment and Training
in the labour ministry, etc. Vocational education was also in operation in non- formal,
adult and voluntary sectors in addition to the formal sector.

Recently, VE was introduced in Secondary schools meant for general education, which
are concerned primarily with basic academic subjects, in no way connected with
vocational courses or apprenticeship. Vocational courses started in general education at
+2 and +3 stages of 10+2+3 aimed at imparting both knowledge and skill pertaining to
vocation and attained equal importance.

Currently vocational education and training is being offered by a variety of Government

and Non-government Institutions nation-wide: a) Schools with vocational stream at the
+2 level b) Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) c) Community Polytechnics d) National
Open School e) Open Universities, Selected College / Universities f) Krishi Vigyan
Kendras g) Non Government Organisations e) Special Institutions.

Although substantial expansion in facilities has taken place in the last 10 years with new
schemes, new courses and new institutions, these have been unable to meet the challenge
and demand of industry, employment and the public.

Technical Education

6
During the past five decades, there has been a phenomenological expansion of technical
education facilities in the country and it has played a significant role in the process of
economic and technological development of India by producing high quality manpower
needed for various sectors and by providing essential services through research and
innovations. Strong linkages between technical institutions and industry were developed.

Several new initiatives have been effected such as the Technology Developement
Missions, modernization and removal of Obsolescence, research and development etc.
The thrust areas of technical education is to provide project based financial support for
creation of infrastructure in terms of modern laboratories in the thrust areas, a strong base
for advanced level work by identifying programmes and courses by institutions, taking
into account the country’s and regional needs with special attention to rural society and
disadvantaged sections and develop horizontal and vertical linkages with other
institutions, research laboratories, industry and user agencies through multiplicity of
programmes including consultancy.

Different state governments have taken a variety of initiatives to promote IT education. In

addition, several innovations are taking place outside the Government system. In most
cases replication of such innovations is ne ither time consuming nor expensive.

Allocation and Expenditure on Education

The concept of ‘investment in education’ was explicitly adopted by the Government of
India in the National Policy on Education, 1968. Keeping in view the growing
requirements of the education system, the Government of India promised to allocate at
least six percent of national income to education from the public exchequer, a goal set for
realization by the end of the Ninth Five Year Plan i.e., by 2002.
The educational explosion that has taken place in India during the post- independence
period in terms of number of students, schools and colleges, and teachers, is also
reflected in the growth of expenditure on education (at least in current prices). In
absolute terms, the educational
Sectoral Outlays on Education for 1999-2000 expenditure increased from Rs 1.1 billion
Percent Distribution in 1950-51 to Rs. 412 billion in 1997-98.
The increase is by a staggering 360
Technical Education
Others
2% times. But this impressive growth is
belittled by (a) rapid growth in
10%
University & Higher

population, (b) phenomenal increase in

Education
9%

Secondary Education
12%
student numbers, and above all, (c)
Adult Education escalation in prices. While the total
Elementary
Education

expenditure increased by 360 times, in

2% 65%

per capita terms the increase during

1950-51 to 1997-98 has been by about
130 times. In contrast, the expenditure per pupil increased only by 62 times during the
same period, from Rs. 35.60 to Rs. 2224.
7
Presently 3.6 percent of GNP is invested in education in India (1997-98). Compared to
the very low level of 1.2 percent in 1950-51, this marks a very significant progress. Plan
expenditure on education, including in case of elementary education, is relatively very
small compared to non-plan expenditures form the major chunk of expenditure on
education. However, the budget for Elementary Education has been enhanced from Rs.
2852 crores (1 Crore = 10 Million) in 1999-2000 to Rs. 3608 crores in 2000-01.

Huge investments have been made

Expenditure on Higher Education as % of GNP in higher education in independent
India with total expenditure on
1.2
higher education increasing
1
remarkably. On the whole, the
0.8
trends suggest that the higher
0.6
education had a good start during
0.4
the 1950s (with real growth of 7.5 %
per annum), and had its golden days
0.2

0
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1994-95
during the 1960s, with the real
expenditure increasing at an annual
rate of growth of 11 percent; but it suffered significantly during the 1970s, with the rate
of growth coming down to a meagre 3.4 % as educational planners aimed at
consolidation of higher education instead. The 1990s heralded an era of austerity and
higher education suffered greatly. Although, in 1996-97, the government expenditure of
Rs. 42,035 million rose further during the subsequent period, this impressive growth was,
however, considerably offset by increase in prices, and increase in population, more
particularly student numbers in higher education. Inflation has had an adverse effect on
education.

For the Vocationalisation of Secondary Education, an amount of Rs 100 crore was

provided under the Ninth Five Year Plan. By 1999, about 11 crores was spent on the
implementation of the programme. For the year 2000, an amount of Rs 10.50 crore was
budgeted. The expenditure went down in the first two years of the plan.

An amount of Rs. 100 crores was provided for the programme of vocationalisation during
the 9th Five Year Plan. The Budget for the current financial year has been enhanced from
Rs. 10.5 crores in 1999-2000 to Rs. 35 crores in 2000-2001.

For Information Technology, the existing plan allocations of the Ministry for Technical
Education sector have been to tune of around Rs 500 crore, total Ninth Plan outlay is Rs
2375 crore. This provision is made against earmarked all ongoing and already approved
schemes.

SECTION-II

8
 Policies and Programmes
National Policy On Education

Educational policy and progress have been reviewed in the light of the goal of national
development and priorities set from time to time. The National Policy on Education
(NPE-1986) provides for a comprehensive policy framework for the development of
education upto the end of the century and a Plan of Action (POA) 1992, assigning
specific responsibilities for organising, implementing and financing its proposals.

Policy Framework

India's commitment to the spread of knowledge and freedom of thought among its
citizens is reflected in its Constitution. The Directive Principle contained in Article 45
enjoins " the State shall endeavour to provide within a period of ten years from the
commencement of this Constitution, for free and compulsory education for all children
until they complete the age of fourteen years". Article 29 (i) provides that any citizen
having a distinct language, script, special care of the economic and educational interests
of the underprivileged sections, particularly, the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes
is laid down as an obligation of the State under article 46.
In the NPE, almost all the elements that figure in the declaration and framework of the
World Conference on Education for All, held in Jomtien in March 1990, are present. The
policy envisages that the basic learning needs of every person, child, youth and adult
should be met through a variety of delivery systems, there is no trade-off between
quantity and quality, achievement of minimum levels of learning are as important as
participation, the traditional forms of primary education do not actually deliver, supply of
services should be matched by generation of demand, and only by returning education to
the community and by partnership between the government, civil society and
stakeholders can basic education needs be met satisfactorily. The policy paved the way
for enhanced support to the state governments for school improvement, in service teacher
training and non- formal education.

NPE was reviewed during 1990-92 by the Acharya Rammurthy Committee (1990) and N
Janardan Reddy Committee (1992) and necessary amendments were made, on the basis
of which, the Programme of Action (1992) was chalked out and based on its
recommendations provisions were made in the eighth plan.

1. Around the time the National Education policy (1986) was formulated amendments to the
constitution were mooted to vest the local bodies with a constitutional status and entrust
them with the delivery of social services such as primary education. The process was
completed in 1994.

The Policy (1986) took a serious note of the conditions related to basic facilities and
other support systems in the country. It emphasised on elimination of disparities in the
education system and on improvement in the quality of publicly funded schools so that
9
 irrespective of the socio-economic background every child has access to basic education
of a comparable quality. It also called for paying immediate attention to:

§ Improving the unattractive school environment, the unsatisfactory condition of buildings

and the inadequacy of instructional materials; and
§ Laying down minimum levels of learning that all children completing different stages of
education should achieve.

In accordance with the Constitutional commitment to ensure free and compulsory

education for all children upto the age of 14 years, provision of universal elementary
education has been a salient feature of the NPE and the Programme of Action 1992.
Later, the Unnikrishnan Judgement 1993 also spelt out that,” Every child/citizen of this
country has a right to free education until he/she completes the age of fourteen years”.
The Education Ministers’ resolve in 1998 also supports the cause of UEE by stating that
Universal Elementary Education should be pursued in the mission mode and that there is
a need to pursue a holistic and convergent approach towards UEE. The National
Committee’s Report on UEE in the mission mode (1999) also reiterated the above with
an emphasis on preparation of district elementary education plans for UEE. It supported
the fundamental right to education and desired action towards operationalisation of the
mission mode towards UEE. The NPE also spelt out the need for the training of the
teachers for effective implementation of UEE. It is with respect to the above objectives
that several initiatives and strategies have been planned and implemented in the areas of
Primary and Elementary Education.

2. Adult education is an important part of the NPE, not the central part though, given the
flavour and priority accorded to quality, efficiency and excellence as lubricants in the
new economic development approach.

Recognising human resource development and its constant up gradation apace with
technology advances as a critical development issue, the NPE underlined the crucial
importance of a systematic programme of adult education, aligned in its objectives, to the
national goals, of poverty alleviation, national integration, environmental conservation,
etc. Towards this end, all existing adult education programmes were to be reviewed and
strengthened. Especially about adult literacy, the NPE’s resolve was clear:

- The whole nation must pledge itself to eradication of illiteracy, particularly in the 15-35
age group. The Central and State Governments, political parties and their mass
organisations, the mass media and educational institutions must commit themselves to
mass literacy programmes of diverse nature… The mass literacy programme will
include, in addition to literacy, functional knowledge and skills, also awareness among
learners about the socio-economic reality and the possibility to change it (MHRD, 1986a:
9).
10
 The NPE’s Programme of Action (MHRD, 1986b: 130) spelt out the operational strategy
of covering the 100 million non- literates – 40 million by 1990 and another 60 million by
1995. However, given the track record of woefully inadequate coverage of the stipulated
targets in the past, and also given the magnitude, the POA proposed the eradication of
illiteracy, to be treated with a sense of urgency and, therefore, to be made a “mission” – a
technical and societal mission.

The three dimensions of NPE and its POA strategy towards adult education deserve
notice. One is the sense of urgency and the imperative of involving of the whole society.
Second is the expansion of scope of coverage, to increase the range of agencies and their
operational efficiency and accountability, through review and evaluation. The third is the
role delineation – policy and direction with the Centre, functional autonomy in
implementation to States and involvement of the community at the grassroots level
(MHRD, 1986b: 135).

3. The NPE as revised in 1992 lays emphasis on widening the access to Secondary
Education and Higher Education with emphasis on enrolment of girls, SCs and STs,
particularly in Science, Commerce and Vocational streams.

Higher education, according to the 1986 Policy and its review around 1996, provides
people with an opportunity to reflect on the critical social, economic, cultural, moral and
spiritual issues facing humanity and contributes to national development through
dissemination of specialized knowledge and skills. The policy urged that in the context of
the unprecedented explosion of knowledge, higher education had to become dynamic as
never before, constantly entering uncharted areas, and it proposed that a large number of
universities and colleges in the country needed all round improvement and that the main
emphasis in the immediate future should be on their consolidation and expansion.

4. The NPE accords high priority to the Vocational Education and stipulates the following
as the main objectives: to provide diversification of educational opportunities so as to
enhance individual employability, reduce mismatch between demand an supply of skilled
manpower and provide alternative avenues for those pursuing higher education.
Vocationalisation of education was also identified as a priority area in the Eighth Five
Year Plan. The revised policy formulations which set forth the modifications to the NPE,
however, retained the policy framework laid down by NPE. The target coverage was
however, revised to divert 10 percent of the higher secondary students by 1995 and 25
percent by the year 2000.

5. Provision in IT Legislation

Lok Sabha has passed the information Technology Act 2000 which aims “to provide
legal recognition for transaction carried out by means of electronic data interchange and
other means of electronic data interchange and other means of electronics
11
communication, commonly referred to as ‘electronic commerce’, which involve use of
alternative to paper-based methods of communication and storage of information, to
facilitate electronic filing of documents with the government agencies…” the Bill marks
a watershed in the conduct of affairs in the government, signaling a new beginning in the
official transactional mode.

Several State Governments such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Maharashtra

and Tamil Nadu have established Information Technology Policy for promoting the IT
industry and IT enabled services. These states have clearly recognized the strategic
importance of information technology in creating a compete economy equipped to face
the challenge and exploit the opportunities of the future.

SECTION-III

The above sections have attempted to understand the educational scenario in our country
from post- independence period to the present, elaborating upon the modalities by which
the various levels of the education sector (elementary to technical) operate,
simultaneously reflecting on the policy provisions made for each of these and the way
these are translated into action by the government and private systems.

The sections have also highlighted the envisaged progress in terms of targets set
according to government policy and pronouncements along with the gaps that exist in the
attainment of these targets. Considering the requirements at present and the gaps existing,
it may be useful to understand the educational scenario that will exist in the year 2025.
Consequently, it may be worthwhile to reflect on the requirements for the education
sector in the year 2025 and analyse the capacity of the system to fulfill them.

A critique…

With respect to the Educational scenario, for the year 2025 we have significant
requirements and goals set for ourselves, which will enable our nation to possess self-
equipped citizens holding a key to the progress and development in all spheres. This
implies that all the provisions stated in the NPE must be realized by 2025.

To begin with, it is important to understand the quantitative requirements of the sector

concerning issues of enrolment, school infrastructure, and teacher availability etc.
Thereafter, it will be logical to analyse the scenario that will exist in the year 2025, with
respect to the attainment of the requirements.

12
The total population of India in the age group of 6-13 years was170 million in 1991 and
the corresponding enrolment at the elementary level was 136.50 million4 . In 2025 the
population figures for the same age group have been projected as 199 million5 . Adding
15 per cent for overage and underage children, this number will increase by 30 million.
As per the objective of UEE, assuming that all the children in the age group of 6-14 years
will be in school, in the year 2016, the elementary school system (class I to VIII) will
have to cater to a number of 229 million children.

The enrolment in 1998-99 was 151 million. The system thus, has to cater for three- fifth
more number of school places. The number of teachers in 1998-99 was 3.2 million at the
elementary stage. If we calculate the teacher requirement for the same year according to
the teacher-pupil ratio of 1:35, it clearly signifies a shortfall of nearly 0.70 million
teachers. The teacher requirement for year 2025 can also be worked out by dividing the
child enrolment at the elementary level in 2025 by 35, as the revised norm for teacher-
pupil ratio is 1:35. This number works out to be 7 million teachers at the elementary level
for the year 2025. This would thus, mean a requirement of nearly doubling of the teacher
force in 15 years. With respect to the classroom requirement at the rate of one classroom
for every teacher, the requirement in 2025 will be approximately 7 million.

At the Secondary stage, the enrolment figures for the children in classes IXth and Xth in
1998-99 was 18.45 million. The enrolment figure for the same classes in the year 1991
was 15.2 million. If we calculate the growth rate 6 from 1991 to 1998-99, it comes to
about 2.5 percent per annum. Considering the same growth rate for the next eighteen
years, we can project enrolment figure in the year 2025 as 36 million. Adding 15 per
cent for overage and underage children, this number will increase by 5.4 million. The
secondary school system (class IX and X) will thus, have to cater to a number of 41.4
million children. Accordingly, the teacher requirement, as per the norm of 1:25, will be
1.7 million in the year 2025.

For the Higher secondary stage (XI to XII), the total enrolment was 5.46 million in
1991 and the corresponding enrolment at the higher secondary level was 6.92 million in
1998-99. Using the Growth rate in the years 1991 to 1998-99 as 3 percent per annum, the
enrolment figures in the year 2025 can be projected as 15.38 million. Adding 15 per cent
for overage and underage children, this number will increase by 2.31 million. Thus, in the

4
Selected Educational Statistics (as on 30th September 1998) 1998-99 Govern ment of India MHRD
Department of Secondary Education and Higher Education Planning, monitoring and statistics division,
New Delhi 2000.
5
Refer to chapter by Prof Maribhatt
6
1/8
Growth rate= (Enrolment of 1998-99/ Enrolment of 1991)

13
year 2025, the Higher Secondary system (class XI to XII) will have to cater to a number
of 17.69 million children.

The teacher requirement for year 2025 can thus be worked out by dividing the enrolment
figure in 2025 by 25, as the norm for teacher-pupil ratio at the Higher Secondary level is
1:25. This number works out to be 0.71 million for the year 2025.

In the area of Information Technology, based on the current availability of intake

capacity at various institutions and projected additions to the system considering linear
extrapulation, it is estimated that 2.63 lakh postgraduates (including MCAs), 7.85 lakh
graduates and 7.42 lakh diploma holders in IT and related areas would be added to the
system by 2008 7 . The projections are based on the assumption that 50% of the students
from electronics and communications and 30% from other engineering disciplines would
work in the IT software sector. This would mean that 10.48 lakh IT graduates (PG, MCA
and UG) will be available for the hard core IT sector and 7.4 lakh for the IT enabled
services from the AICTE recognized institutions. Other institutions (IITs, IIITs and IISc
Bangalore) would add nearly 12000 graduates by 2008. Therefore, a total of around 10.60
lakh graduates will be added to the system by 2008.

For the IT enabled services, non-formal sector itself has a capacity of 5 lakh as per MIT
estimates (growing rate of 20%). BIT courses in recognized institutions, distance
education programmes of open universities and correspondence course institutes add
another 60000 per annum (growing at 15%). All this together would add up to several
times the actual manpower requirement projected for the IT enabled services including
teacher requirement for the school sector. It is estimated that total size of IT industry in
India will be over US $ 100 billion by 2008, largely from IT services.

One of the key issues in achieving and sustaining this level of growth will be the
availability of high quality IT professionals in adequate numbers. As per NASSCOM
study, this would require 22 lakh IT professionals-11 lakh in the hard-core IT sector and
another 11 lakh for the IT enabled services.

Ministry of Information Technology has worked out a figure of 23.67 lakh in three
categories-2 lakh IT professionals of category A for software products, 5.77 lakh of IT
professionals of category B for IT services and E-business and 15.9 lakh of IT
professionals of category C for IT enabled services and E-business. This would mean
7.77 lakh professionals in the hard core IT sector, if we broadly fit in category A and
Category B manpower here. This requirement is less than projected by NASSCOM
largely due to assumptions of very ambitious growth in productivity.

Further, it is estimated that nearly 20000 teachers in the formal tertiary education sector
with PG or research qualifications would be required. Assuming a very realistic target of

7
Projections available till 2008 only
14
all secondary schools providing computer education by 2008, requirement of teachers for
school sector would bein the range of 100000. This would be largely fed by BCA and
equivalent degree holders. It is expected that there will be significant use of computers
and Internet even at the primary and pre-primary level by 2008. There would be
additional teacher requirement for the purpose.

In addition to the national demand there would be international demand in view of

intrinsic quality of Indian software professionals and therefore premium attached to them.
However, notionally, we could take it as 20% of the overall manpower requirements. The
demand for IT professionals from USA under HIB Visa has increased to around 200000
from the present level of 114000. Similarly, other counties are likely to permit
immigration at a level between 20000 to 30000 per annum for IT professionals.
According to the NASSCOM report, India could earn up to 12% of the projected $142
billion global market over the next eight years.

Optimal Requirement versus realistic scenario

Given the requirements in purely quantitative terms it is important to understand the non-
negotiables for their achievement in 2025. Firstly, it will be critical to have at least a
growth rate of 9-10 per cent per year in the economic sphere, necessitating the
requirement for human skills, especially the research skills. There will be no compromise
with respect to enrolment and retention of children in schools. For this there must be 100
per cent literacy and 100 per cent enrolment at primary, secondary and technical levels.
The problem of dropouts will need to be mainstreamed together with the quality of
education at the primary, secondary and technical levels and for this the rural sector will
be mobilized and encouraged in the cause of education.

Economic development of our country is built around educational development. There is

considerable data which shows that education is based on economic development and
vice versa. This aspect has also been realized by the community at large and education is
now being considered important. This is even highlighted by the analysis of household
income vs expenditure, which shows that investment in education in even the poorest
households is high. People have understood the economic value of education and are now
ready to invest. This is also seen in the fact that many youths are opting out of labour
force and are spending larger period on education.

However, the government’s capacity to pay for education is limited. Even now the GDP
is only 4 percent and has not reached even 6 percent as envisaged in 1966 by the Kothari
commission and thereafter in the VIIIth plan as 10 percent. Thus, there is a need to
explore private and other investments. It has been established beyond doubt that besides
its social and cultural dimensions, education is also an economic and political investment
yielding long- term benefits. It is, therefore, not only justifiable but also desirable to
focus on this investment in order to gain maximum benefit.

15
In terms of allocation for education, it needs to be underlined that the present 3.6 percent
of GNP is less than
(a) the requirement of the education system to provide reasonable levels of quality
education to all the students enrolled presently,
(b) the requirements of the system to provide universal elementary education of eight
years for every child of the age- group 6-14, and consequent growth in secondary
and higher education, as universalisation of elementary education in a
comprehensive sense, includes universal provision of resources,

This implies that it will be important to raise money from private sources in order to ease
pressure on public spending. This, of course, is not meant to release the state from its
financial commitments, which have been substantial in India.

Demand for higher educated manpower will increase substantially in the near future and
this will impel central focus on the quality and quantity of manpower produced by the
higher education system. Both for quantitative expansion and improvement in quality, the
system will require large additional resources. Increasing needs stemming from
population growth, need for modernization and the limited nature of resources, will be
problems facing financing of education.

Along with the issue of investment, the quality issue also demands attention at all levels
of education. In this context, the Research and Development area, which is extremely
weak, has to be focused. This area is crit ical as it provides base to the planning process,
links it up to the implementation and subsequently highlights areas for reform. A weak
system endangers the life of the intervention, its sustainability and impact. Realising the
strategic shift in focus from merely access to quality inputs in all interventions at all
levels of education in 2025, it will be required to concentrate on R&D rigourously.
Ideally, this area in the laboratories and universities will focus on state-of-art
technologies, adapting the m to local conditions, developing new indigenous ones and
enhancing production and productivity. The R&D set up in the universities would be
greatly enhanced to inculcate the spirit of research in the minds of the students. There
would be a greater stress on sponsored applied research in the universities, apart from the
fundamental research. Industry-institutions linkages would be strengthened which would
give boost to research activities and consequent improvement in productivity and
production. R&D activities in the private sector would have a substantial presence, as
industry and corporates realize the importance of knowledge capital in a knowledge-
based economy.

In order to achieve the above, focus on R&D will be required in economic terms as well.
Considering our country’s extremely low expenditure (0.7 %) in R&D as compared to
other countries, the private sector will have to significantly contribute to this area. Along
with this, a useful strategy will be to strengthen the universities for research and
development activities and not operate through just individuals. This will enhance
education quality and thus, education could be integrated with development. This action
16
will contribute to better planning for 2025 and if not pursued in the mission mode,
planning will bear the same consequences as now.

Linked to the overall issue of education is the sublying aspect of Value education. It is
feared that the more we industrialize, greater will be the need for value education at all
levels. Although, we have been led to believe that our values are the best, the western
values are associated with progress, development, quick achievement, and hence are
being readily imbibed by the students. It has to be understood that there is no particular
set of values, which guarantees success and that the societal values must match with the
organizational values and hence, values such as wisdom, humility, rationality,
intellectualism etc. will have to be inculcated in education at all levels. In this context,
our cultural values will need to be integrated with education.

Our performance in the field of education is not as satisfactory as envisaged as part of our
developmental strategy. The previous sections have pointed out the gaps existing with
respect to enrolment and attendance at all levels. At the same time the analysis has
pointed to a significant growth from post independence period to now, clearly
recognising the potential our country has with respect to development.

Against this background, the optimistic scena rio suggests that India will have a well-
established education system at the elementary, secondary and tertiary levels to be able to
develop manpower for different levels of the economy. Having added 203 million to the
population of the literates during the decade 1991-2001, India has demonstrable
capability to reach near 100 per cent literacy level by 2025. The high rates of literacy in
the rural areas, particularly among women, would encourage labour mobility from the
agriculture sector to the more productive non- farm sectors. The managerial and financial
skills required for the expanding and rapidly developing economy would be provided by
the vibrant and matching tertiary education system.

Thus, it is important to aim at a radical transformation in this situation by giving highest

priority to achieve the objective of Education for All. Elementary education would have
become a fundamental right and the state would endeavour to ensure at least eight years
of schooling to every child. Universalisating access to elementary education and
improvement of basic school infrastructure is the core objective for this. This would
mean targeting the provision of one teacher for every group of 40 children for primary
and upper primary schools, opening of a primary school/alternate schooling facility
within 1 kilometre of every habitation, provision of free textbooks to all SCs/STs children
and girls at the primary and upper primary school, management and repair of school
buildings through school management committees, provision of opportunities for non-
formal and alternative education for out of school children in the most backward areas
and for unreached segments of the population in response to local needs and demands
articulated at the grass root level. Steps would have to be initiated to fill up all the
existing vacancies of the teachers through a time bound manner, with defined

17
responsibility to local bodies and communities, and to remove legal impediments in the
recruitment of para-teachers.

All the above strategies can be put into place if the political will of the country is positive
and the linkages of the education system with the community, the functioning of the
institutions and other stakeholders is strengthened. With the policy largely taking into
account the needs of the disadvantaged groups and the girls; India seems to be pretty
strong on the political will. Considering the community readiness for education, its
participation/mobilisation is not a problem. With the powers now being transferred to the
PRIs, their participation will be attained in a much stronger way. Mere establishment of
schools and hiring of teachers will not lead to an improvement in education if teachers
remain absent as happens in many parts of the country, especially in rural areas. The
participation of the local bodies (panchayats/local bodies), will therefore, help to monitor
schools in a much better way.

With focus directed on disadvantaged girls and children through policy pronouncements
and by agencies, it may be safely assumed that in 2025, in terms of access the gender gap
will be substantially bridged. However, continuing poverty for some sections of the
society and inaccessible schools will inhibit universal access and enrolment. Instead of
eight years of schooling, perhaps, on than average, there would be only 5-6 years,
majority of children of the landless wage earners, SCs and STs, muslims and those below
the poverty line will be main sufferers. While enrolment may be near universal, retention
will be difficult.

Although, quality may still be an issue if the systems are not adequately strengthened.
While analysing the root causes for the current problems in the education sector, the role
of institutions cannot be ignored. This is invariably linked to the quality issue in schools
and universities. As per the status envisaged, most institutions lack motivation and rigour
to contribute to the sector by taking on dynamic roles, thereby leading a neglected life.
Thus, it will be important to make these institutions functional bringing about a
qualitative change in the sector. A strong system will then be able to meet the
requirement for teacher training for the additional teacher force and the required amount
of teaching- learning material.

At the elementary level, currently this is being met out of DPEP for half the districts of
the states and to cater to the requirement in 2025 these provisions will have to be
increased. Thus, for quality education, provision of adequate academic support/training to
all the teachers will be necessary. In this connection, the use of IT will also be explored
in terms of teachers’ capacity building as also for spread of literacy through television
and media.

In 2025, the enrolment at the secondary and the senior secondary level will expand to
take in almost all students desirous of pursuing further studies from the present level of
gross enrolment ratio of about 60 per cent in the secondary level to about 75-80 per cent,
18
with almost complete access and retention in computer literacy. As per the present trend
there is no significant rise in the enrolment of girls at this level, as well of the children
from the disadvantaged and poverty-ridden areas. However, with the focus on this
segment, in 2025 there would be greater enrolment of girls, SCs and STs, particularly in
science, commerce and vocational streams. From about 48-50 per cent of the secondary
school age girls being enroled, the ratio would substantially increase and nearly match
that of the enrolment of boys.

The rural areas will be deficient in computer literacy and thus, the quality of computer
literacy for almost 60 per cent of the enroled students in the secondary and senior
secondary level will leave much to be desired.

There would be a heavy bias in favour of vocational and technical education, although in
the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Thialand employers and students are realizing that
general education equips people for the demands of a modern economy integrated with
the world trading system. There would be emphasis on quality and creativity. Science
education would stress on experimentation, scientific enquiry and problem solving,
making the school graduates more receptive to on-the-job training. Intellectual rigour,
objectivity, spirit of enquiry and the ability to think, reason, analyse and to articulate
logically would be the visible traits of the school graduates. While private schools would
proliferate in both urban and rural areas, the use of distance education and the mass
media would strengthen considerably.

However, this will be generally visible in the private schools where the cost of education
will be higher. In the government and the government-aided schools, the quality of
education will not be as high. Thus, the country will have two streams of students: a) the
brighter graduates from private schools having potential to do perform well in academics
b) the not so bright graduates from the government and the government aided schools
excelling in vocational courses and lower rungs of technical and managerial functions. A
developing economy needs both streams and therefore, they would complement each
other.

With respect to the Higher education, from a level of 613 per 100000 population of
enrolment in tertiary education in 1997 of which only about 30 per cent of the women
enroled were in the science stream, by 2025, India will be able to provide college and
university education to about 40 per cent of the population in the age cohort of 18 to 24
years. The gender gap in enrolment will substantially get bridged and there will be an
increasing percentage of female students in the technical, management, sciences and
humanities. Engineering, medical, information technology and management education
will be the choice of bulk of the students enroled.

In order to cater to a huge demand several institutions will have to be set up. As per the
status now, the cost being higher government is not able to set up many institutions since
the 1980s, thus, limiting growth in this sector. Almost entire growth is in the private
19
sector. The university and higher education sector will need attention to improve the
educational status of the country. This is also important in order to compete
internationally. For this resources will be needed to create institutions.

Part of the problem facing universities is the inadequate provision of budgetary resources
from the government. Since budget resources are limited and such resources as are
available need to be allocated to expanding primary education, it will be important for
universities to take greater efforts to supplement minimum resources from the
government or from contributions from industry, constituting funds/trusts like the Bharat
Shiksha kosh etc. Establishment of private institutions will be encouraged in order to
competitive internationally. There will however, be several problems related to
establishing new institutions such as, the extremely high cost of setting up an institution,
shortage of teachers, teacher salary not comparable to international standards etc. To
combat these problems, alternatives such as distance education programmes, virtual
classrooms, internet education etc. will be explored and there would be a paradigm shift
in the delivery system of education through these means. This will bear a substantial
stress on information technology and IT enabled services. The emphasis will be on
individual initiative to get educated at the pace at which the individual sets himself, rather
than the rigour of classrooms with limited reach and flexible schedules. The system will
be flexible enough to meet the changing needs of rapid economic growth and shifting
patterns of employment.

In the above context, focus on higher investments will be established. Since return of
education is very high (About 40-45%), as compared to even other sectors and there is a
demand to invest in education, there is a need to make investments through normal
schemes and an efficient financing system. Various possibilities will exist in 2025, in this
context: 1. Education development Banks to finance students and institutions through
subsidized rates 2. The strategy of making contribution to the universities, with matching
contribution from the universities for increasing investment or the contributions from the
alumni’s. Universities will have to adopt a marketing strategy to lure foreign students,
mobilize resources and strengthen itself. This will act as a long term and potent
instrument of international diplomacy.

In the area of Information technology, as projected in the earlier section, the growth of
India will be over US $ 100 billion by 2008, largely from IT services. As regards to the
qualitative projections, IT education planning will needs to focus on how to increase
quality in the tertiary IT education process. This is important as there is an acceptability
of industry rising to 80 percent keeping in view that a large number of engineering
graduates will continue to move into the IT workforce by doing bridge courses or through
retraining programmes in industry.

List of references

20
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1. 2000 India NIEPA New Delhi
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21
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25