Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into
two very broad categories: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order
to estimate its value. Technical analysis takes a completely different approach; it
doesn't care one bit about the "value" of a company or a commodity. Technicians
(sometimes called chartists) are only interested in the price movements in the
market.
Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really just
studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction,
or trend, will continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to
understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to
its components. If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis,
it can give you a new set of tools or skills
that will enable you to be a better trader or investor.
In this tutorial, we'll introduce you to the subject of technical analysis. It's a broad
topic, so we'll just cover the basics, providing you with the foundation you'll need to
understand more advanced concepts down the road.
Now that you understand the philosophy behind technical analysis, we'll get into
explaining how it really works. One of the best ways to understand what technical
analysis is (and is not) is to compare it to fundamental analysis. We'll do this in the
next section.
By looking at the balance sheet, cash flow statement and income statement, a
fundamental analyst tries to determine a company's value. In financial terms, an
analyst attempts to measure a company's intrinsic value. In this approach,
investment decisions are fairly easy to make - if the price of a stock trades below
its intrinsic value, it's a good investment. Although this is an oversimplification
(fundamental analysis goes beyond just the financial statements) for the purposes
of this tutorial, this simple tenet holds true.
Time Horizon
Fundamental analysis takes a relatively long-term approach to analyzing the
market compared to technical analysis. While technical analysis can be used on a
timeframe of weeks, days or even minutes, fundamental analysis often looks at
data over a number of years.
The different timeframes that these two approaches use is a result of the nature of
the investing style to which they each adhere. It can take a long time for a
company's value to be reflected in the market, so when a fundamental analyst
estimates intrinsic value, a gain is not realized until the stock's market price rises
to its "correct" value. This type of investing is called value investing and assumes
that the short-term market is wrong, but that the price of a particular stock will
correct itself over the long run. This "long run" can represent a timeframe of as
long as several years, in some cases. (For more insight, read Warren Buffett: How
He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
Furthermore, the numbers that a fundamentalist analyzes are only released over
long periods of time. Financial statements are filed quarterly and changes in
earnings per share don't emerge on a daily basis like price and volume
information. Also remember that fundamentals are the actual characteristics of a
business. New management can't implement sweeping changes overnight and it
takes time to create new products, marketing campaigns, supply chains, etc. Part
of the reason that fundamental analysts use a long-term timeframe, therefore, is
because the data they use to analyze a stock is generated much more slowly than
the price and volume data used by technical analysts.
The Critics
Some critics see technical analysis as a form of black magic. Don't be surprised to
see them question the validity of the discipline to the point where they mock its
supporters. In fact, technical analysis has only recently begun to enjoy some
mainstream credibility. While most analysts on Wall Street focus on the
fundamental side, just about any major brokerage now employs technical analysts
as well.
Much of the criticism of technical analysis has its roots in academic theory -
specifically the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). This theory says that the
market's price is always the correct one - any past trading information is already
reflected in the price of the stock and, therefore, any analysis to find undervalued
securities is useless.
There are three versions of EMH. In the first, called weak form efficiency, all past
price information is already included in the current price. According to weak form
efficiency, technical analysis can't predict future movements because all past
information has already been accounted for and, therefore, analyzing the
stock's past price movements will provide no insight into its future movements. In
the second, semi-strong form efficiency, fundamental analysis is also claimed to
be of little use in finding investment opportunities. The third is strong form
efficiency, which states that all information in the market is accounted for in a
stock's price and neither technical nor fundamental analysis can provide investors
with an edge. The vast majority of academics believe in at least the weak version
of EMH, therefore, from their point of view, if technical analysis works, market
efficiency will be called into question. (For more insight, read What Is Market
Efficiency? and Working Through The Efficient Market Hypothesis.)
While mixing some of the components of technical and fundamental analysis is not
well received by the most devoted groups in each school, there are certainly
benefits to at least understanding both schools of thought.
In the following sections, we'll take a more detailed look at technical analysis.
It isn't hard to see that the trend in Figure 1 is up. However, it's not always this
easy to see a trend:
Figure 2
There are lots of ups and downs in this chart, but there isn't a clear indication of
which direction this security is headed.
Figure 3
Figure 3 is an example of an uptrend. Point 2 in the chart is the first high, which
is determined after the price falls from this point. Point 3 is the low that is
established as the price falls from the high. For this to remain an uptrend, each
successive low must not fall below the previous lowest point or the trend is
deemed a reversal.
Types of Trend
There are three types of trend:
• Uptrends
• Downtrends
• Sideways/Horizontal Trends
As the names imply, when each successive peak and trough is higher, it's
referred to as an upward trend. If the peaks and troughs are getting lower, it's a
downtrend. When there is little movement up or down in the peaks and troughs,
it's a sideways or horizontal trend. If you want to get really technical, you might
even say that a sideways trend is actually not a trend on its own, but a lack of a
well-defined trend in either direction. In any case, the market can really only
trend in these three ways: up, down or nowhere. (For more insight, see Peak-
And-Trough Analysis.)
Trend Lengths
Along with these three trend directions, there are three trend classifications. A
trend of any direction can be classified as a long-term trend, intermediate trend
or a short-term trend. In terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally
categorized as one lasting longer than a year. An intermediate trend is
considered to last between one and three months and a near-term trend is
anything less than a month. A long-term trend is composed of several
intermediate trends, which often move against the direction of the major trend. If
the major trend is upward and there is a downward correction in price movement
followed by a continuation of the uptrend, the correction is considered to be an
intermediate trend. The short-term trends are components of both major and
intermediate trends. Take a look a Figure 4 to get a sense of how these three
trend lengths might look.
Figure 4
When analyzing trends, it is important that the chart is constructed to best reflect
the type of trend being analyzed. To help identify long-term trends, weekly
charts or daily charts spanning a five-year period are used by chartists to get a
better idea of the long-term trend. Daily data charts are best used when
analyzing both intermediate and short-term trends. It is also important to
remember that the longer the trend, the more important it is; for example, a one-
month trend is not as significant as a five-year trend. (To read more, see Short-,
Intermediate- And Long-Term Trends.)
Trendlines
A trendline is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to represent
the trend in the market or a stock. Drawing a trendline is as simple as drawing a
straight line that follows a general trend. These lines are used to clearly show
the trend and are also used in the identification of trend reversals.
Figure 5
Channels
A channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trendlines that act as
strong areas of support and resistance. The upper trendline connects a series of
highs, while the lower trendline connects a series of lows. A channel can slope
upward, downward or sideways but, regardless of the direction, the
interpretation remains the same. Traders will expect a given security to trade
between the two levels of support and resistance until it breaks beyond one of
the levels, in which case traders can expect a sharp move in the direction of the
break. Along with clearly displaying the trend, channels are mainly used to
illustrate important areas of support and resistance.
Figure 6
Figure 1
As you can see in Figure 1, support is the price level through which a stock or
market seldom falls (illustrated by the blue arrows). Resistance, on the other
hand, is the price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses (illustrated by
the red arrows).
Buyers will often purchase large amounts of stock once the price starts to fall
toward a major round number such as $50, which makes it more difficult for
shares to fall below the level. On the other hand, sellers start to sell off a stock
as it moves toward a round number peak, making it difficult to move past this
upper level as well. It is the increased buying and selling pressure at these
levels that makes them important points of support and resistance and, in many
cases, major psychological points as well.
Role Reversal
Once a resistance or support level is broken, its role is reversed. If the price falls
below a support level, that level will become resistance. If the price rises above
a resistance level, it will often become support. As the price moves past a level
of support or resistance, it is thought that supply and demand has shifted,
causing the breached level to reverse its role. For a true reversal to occur,
however, it is important that the price make a strong move through either the
support or resistance. (For further reading, see Retracement Or Reversal: Know
The Difference.)
Figure 2
For example, as you can see in Figure 2, the dotted line is shown as a level of
resistance that has prevented the price from heading higher on two previous
occasions (Points 1 and 2). However, once the resistance is broken, it becomes
a level of support (shown by Points 3 and 4) by propping up the price and
preventing it from heading lower again.
Many traders who begin using technical analysis find this concept hard to
believe and don't realize that this phenomenon occurs rather frequently, even
with some of the most well-known companies. For example, as you can see in
Figure 3, this phenomenon is evident on the Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) chart
between 2003 and 2006. Notice how the role of the $51 level changes from a
strong level of support to a level of resistance.
Figure 3
In almost every case, a stock will have both a level of support and a level of
resistance and will trade in this range as it bounces between these levels. This
is most often seen when a stock is trading in a generally sideways manner as
the price moves through successive peaks and troughs, testing resistance and
support.
Support and resistance levels both test and confirm trends and need to be
monitored by anyone who uses technical analysis. As long as the price of the
share remains between these levels of support and resistance, the trend is likely
to continue. It is important to note, however, that a break beyond a level of
support or resistance does not always have to be a reversal. For example, if
prices moved above the resistance levels of an upward trending channel, the
trend has accelerated, not reversed. This means that the price appreciation is
expected to be faster than it was in the channel.
Being aware of these important support and resistance points should affect the
way that you trade a stock. Traders should avoid placing orders at these major
points, as the area around them is usually marked by a lot of volatility. If you feel
confident about making a trade near a support or resistance level, it is important
that you follow this simple rule: do not place orders directly at the support or
resistance level. This is because in many cases, the price never actually
reaches the whole number, but flirts with it instead. So if you're bullish on a
stock that is moving toward an important support level, do not place the trade at
the support level. Instead, place it above the support level, but within a few
points. On the other hand, if you are placing stops or short selling, set up your
trade price at or below the level of support.
What is Volume?
Volume is simply the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given
period of time, usually a day. The higher the volume, the more active the
security. To determine the movement of the volume (up or down), chartists look
at the volume bars that can usually be found at the bottom of any chart. Volume
bars illustrate how many shares have traded per period and show trends in the
same way that prices do. (For further reading, see Price Patterns - Part 3,
Gauging Support And Resistance With Price By Volume.)
Say, for example, that a stock jumps 5% in one trading day after being in a long
downtrend. Is this a sign of a trend reversal? This is where volume helps
traders. If volume is high during the day relative to the average daily volume, it is
a sign that the reversal is probably for real. On the other hand, if the volume
is below average, there may not be enough conviction to support a true trend
reversal. (To read more, check out Trading Volume - Crowd Psychology.)
Volume should move with the trend. If prices are moving in an upward trend,
volume should increase (and vice versa). If the previous relationship between
volume and price movements starts to deteriorate, it is usually a sign of
weakness in the trend. For example, if the stock is in an uptrend but the up
trading days are marked with lower volume, it is a sign that the trend is starting
to lose its legs and may soon end.
FREE Report: 7 Things Every Investor Must Know!
The Investopedia Advisor analyst team wants to share with you 7 time tested tenets that
they use to uncover market stomping stock ideas. This is a must-read report for anyone
serious about controlling their financial destiny. Click here to access your FREE report
online right now!
Chart Properties
There are several things that you should be aware of when looking at a chart, as
these factors can affect the information that is provided. They include the time
scale, the price scale and the price point properties used.
Intraday charts plot price movement within the period of one day. This means that
the time scale could be as short as five minutes or could cover the whole trading
day from the opening bell to the closing bell.
Daily charts are comprised of a series of price movements in which each price
point on the chart is a full day’s trading condensed into one point. Again, each
point on the graph can be simply the closing price or can entail the open, high, low
and close for the stock over the day. These data points are spread out over
weekly, monthly and even yearly time scales to monitor both short-term and
intermediate trends in price movement.
Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts are used to analyze longer term
trends in the movement of a stock's price. Each data point in these graphs will be a
condensed version of what happened over the specified period. So for a weekly
chart, each data point will be a representation of the price movement of the week.
For example, if you are looking at a chart of weekly data spread over a five-year
period and each data point is the closing price for the week, the price that is
plotted will be the closing price on the last trading day of the week, which is usually
a Friday.
If a price scale is constructed using a linear scale, the space between each price
point (10, 20, 30, 40) is separated by an equal amount. A price move from 10 to 20
on a linear scale is the same distance on the chart as a move from 40 to 50. In
other words, the price scale measures moves in absolute terms and does not
show the effects of percent change.
Figure 2
If a price scale is in logarithmic terms, then the distance between points will be equal
in terms of percent change. A price change from 10 to 20 is a 100% increase in the
price while a move from 40 to 50 is only a 25% change, even though they are
represented by the same distance on a linear scale. On a logarithmic scale, the
distance of the 100% price change from 10 to 20 will not be the same as the 25%
change from 40 to 50. In this case, the move from 10 to 20 is represented by a
larger space one the chart, while the move from 40 to 50, is represented by a
smaller space because, percentage-wise, it indicates a smaller move. In Figure 2,
the logarithmic price scale on the right leaves the same amount of space between
10 and 20 as it does between 20 and 40 because these both represent 100%
increases.
Line Chart
The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents only the
closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the
closing prices over the time frame. Line charts do not provide visual information of
the trading range for the individual points such as the high, low and opening
prices. However, the closing price is often considered to be the most important
price in stock data compared to the high and low for the day and this is why it is
the only value used in line charts.
Bar Charts
The bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces of
information to each data point. The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines
that represent each data point. This vertical line represents the high and low for
the trading period, along with the closing price. The close and open are
represented on the vertical line by a horizontal dash. The opening price on a bar
chart is illustrated by the dash that is located on the left side of the vertical bar.
Conversely, the close is represented by the dash on the right. Generally, if the left
dash (open) is lower than the right dash (close) then the bar will be shaded black,
representing an up period for the stock, which means it has gained value. A bar
that is colored red signals that the stock has gone down in value over that period.
When this is the case, the dash on the right (close) is lower than the dash on the
left (open).
Figure 2: A bar chart
Candlestick Charts
The candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in the way that it is
visually constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has a thin vertical
line showing the period's trading range. The difference comes in the formation of a
wide bar on the vertical line, which illustrates the difference between the open and
close. And, like bar charts, candlesticks also rely heavily on the use of colors to
explain what has happened during the trading period. A major problem with the
candlestick color configuration, however, is that different sites use different
standards; therefore, it is important to understand the candlestick configuration
used at the chart site you are working with. There are two color constructs for days
up and one for days that the price falls. When the price of the stock is up and
closes above the opening trade, the candlestick will usually be white or clear. If the
stock has traded down for the period, then the candlestick will usually be red or
black, depending on the site. If the stock's price has closed above the previous
day’s close but below the day's open, the candlestick will be black or filled with the
color that is used to indicate an up day. (To read more, see The Art Of Candlestick
Charting - Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.)
Figure 3: A candlestick chart
When first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xs and Os.
The Xs represent upward price trends and the Os represent downward price
trends. There are also numbers and letters in the chart; these represent months,
and give investors an idea of the date. Each box on the chart represents the price
scale, which adjusts depending on the price of the stock: the higher the stock's
price the more each box represents. On most charts where the price is between
$20 and $100, a box represents $1, or 1 point for the stock. The other critical point
of a point and figure chart is the reversal criteria. This is usually set at three but it
can also be set according to the chartist's discretion. The reversal criteria set how
much the price has to move away from the high or low in the price trend to create a
new trend or, in other words, how much the price has to move in order for a
column of Xs to become a column of Os, or vice versa. When the price trend has
moved from one trend to another, it shifts to the right, signaling a trend change.
Conclusion
Charts are one of the most fundamental aspects of technical analysis. It is important
that you clearly understand what is being shown on a chart and the information that
it provides. Now that we have an idea of how charts are constructed, we can move
on to the different types of chart patterns.
While there are general ideas and components to every chart pattern, there is no
chart pattern that will tell you with 100% certainty where a security is headed. This
creates some leeway and debate as to what a good pattern looks like, and is a
major reason why charting is often seen as more of an art than a science. (For
more insight, see Is finance an art or a science?)
There are two types of patterns within this area of technical analysis, reversal and
continuation. A reversal pattern signals that a prior trend will reverse upon
completion of the pattern. A continuation pattern, on the other hand, signals that a
trend will continue once the pattern is complete. These patterns can be found over
charts of any timeframe. In this section, we will review some of the more popular
chart patterns. (To learn more, check out Continuation Patterns - Part 1, Part 2,
Part 3 and Part 4.)
Both of these head and shoulders patterns are similar in that there are four main
parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. Also, each individual head and
shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. For example, in the head and shoulders
top image shown on the left side in Figure 1, the left shoulder is made up of a high
followed by a low. In this pattern, the neckline is a level of support or resistance.
Remember that an upward trend is a period of successive rising highs and rising
lows. The head and shoulders chart pattern, therefore, illustrates a weakening in a
trend by showing the deterioration in the successive movements of the highs and
lows. (To learn more, see Price Patterns - Part 2.)
Figure 2
As you can see in Figure 2, this price pattern forms what looks like a cup, which is
preceded by an upward trend. The handle follows the cup formation and is formed
by a generally downward/sideways movement in the security's price. Once the
price movement pushes above the resistance lines formed in the handle, the
upward trend can continue. There is a wide ranging time frame for this type of
pattern, with the span ranging from several months to more than a year.
Figure 3: A double top pattern is shown on the left, while a double bottom pattern is shown on the
right.
In the case of the double top pattern in Figure 3, the price movement has twice
tried to move above a certain price level. After two unsuccessful attempts at
pushing the price higher, the trend reverses and the price heads lower. In the case
of a double bottom (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower
twice, but has found support each time. After the second bounce off of the support,
the security enters a new trend and heads upward. (For more in-depth reading,
see The Memory Of Price and Price Patterns - Part 4.)
Triangles
Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical
analysis. The three types of triangles, which vary in construct and implication, are
the symmetrical triangle, ascending and descending triangle. These chart patterns
are considered to last anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months.
Figure 4
As you can see in Figure 5, there is little difference between a pennant and a flag.
The main difference between these price movements can be seen in the middle
section of the chart pattern. In a pennant, the middle section is characterized by
converging trendlines, much like what is seen in a symmetrical triangle. The
middle section on the flag pattern, on the other hand, shows a channel pattern,
with no convergence between the trendlines. In both cases, the trend is expected
to continue when the price moves above the upper trendline.
Wedge
The wedge chart pattern can be either a continuation or reversal pattern. It is
similar to a symmetrical triangle except that the wedge pattern slants in an upward
or downward direction, while the symmetrical triangle generally shows a sideways
movement. The other difference is that wedges tend to form over longer periods,
usually between three and six months.
Figure 6
The fact that wedges are classified as both continuation and reversal patterns can
make reading signals confusing. However, at the most basic level, a falling wedge
is bullish and a rising wedge is bearish. In Figure 6, we have a falling wedge in
which two trendlines are converging in a downward direction. If the price was to
rise above the upper trendline, it would form a continuation pattern, while a move
below the lower trendline would signal a reversal pattern.
Gaps
A gap in a chart is an empty space between a trading period and the following
trading period. This occurs when there is a large difference in prices between two
sequential trading periods. For example, if the trading range in one period is
between $25 and $30 and the next trading period opens at $40, there will be a
large gap on the chart between these two periods. Gap price movements can be
found on bar charts and candlestick charts but will not be found on point and figure
or basic line charts. Gaps generally show that something of significance has
happened in the security, such as a better-than-expected earnings announcement.
There are three main types of gaps, breakaway, runaway (measuring) and
exhaustion. A breakaway gap forms at the start of a trend, a runaway gap forms
during the middle of a trend and an exhaustion gap forms near the end of a trend.
(For more insight, read Playing The Gap.)
Confusion can form with triple tops and bottoms during the formation of the pattern
because they can look similar to other chart patterns. After the first two
support/resistance tests are formed in the price movement, the pattern will look like
a double top or bottom, which could lead a chartist to enter a reversal position too
soon.
Rounding Bottom
A rounding bottom, also referred to as a saucer bottom, is a long-term reversal
pattern that signals a shift from a downward trend to an upward trend. This pattern
is traditionally thought to last anywhere from several months to several years.
Figure 8
A rounding bottom chart pattern looks similar to a cup and handle pattern but
without the handle. The long-term nature of this pattern and the lack of a
confirmation trigger, such as the handle in the cup and handle, makes it a difficult
pattern to trade.
We have finished our look at some of the more popular chart patterns. You should
now be able to recognize each chart pattern as well the signal it can form for
chartists. We will now move on to other technical techniques and examine how they
are used by technical traders to gauge price movements.
Figure 1
Many individuals argue that the usefulness of this type of average is limited
because each point in the data series has the same impact on the result
regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. The critics argue that the most
recent data is more important and, therefore, it should also have a higher
weighting. This type of criticism has been one of the main factors leading to the
invention of other forms of moving averages.
Figure 2
Moving average trend reversals are formed in two main ways: when the price
moves through a moving average and when it moves through moving average
crossovers. The first common signal is when the price moves through an important
moving average. For example, when the price of a security that was in an uptrend
falls below a 50-period moving average, like in Figure 4, it is a sign that the
uptrend may be reversing.
Figure 4
The other signal of a trend reversal is when one moving average crosses through
another. For example, as you can see in Figure 5, if the 15-day moving average
crosses above the 50-day moving average, it is a positive sign that the price will
start to increase.
Figure 5
If the periods used in the calculation are relatively short, for example 15 and 35,
this could signal a short-term trend reversal. On the other hand, when two
averages with relatively long time frames cross over (50 and 200, for example),
this is used to suggest a long-term shift in trend.
Another major way moving averages are used is to identify support and resistance
levels. It is not uncommon to see a stock that has been falling stop its decline and
reverse direction once it hits the support of a major moving average. A move
through a major moving average is often used as a signal by technical traders that
the trend is reversing. For example, if the price breaks through the 200-day moving
average in a downward direction, it is a signal that the uptrend is reversing.
Figure 6
Moving averages are a powerful tool for analyzing the trend in a security. They
provide useful support and resistance points and are very easy to use. The most
common time frames that are used when creating moving averages are the 200-
day, 100-day, 50-day, 20-day and 10-day. The 200-day average is thought to be a
good measure of a trading year, a 100-day average of a half a year, a 50-day
average of a quarter of a year, a 20-day average of a month and 10-day average of
two weeks.
Moving averages help technical traders smooth out some of the noise that is found
in day-to-day price movements, giving traders a clearer view of the price trend. So
far we have been focused on price movement, through charts and averages. In the
next section, we'll look at some other techniques used to confirm price movement
and patterns.
There are also two types of indicator constructions: those that fall in a bounded
range and those that do not. The ones that are bound within a range are called
oscillators - these are the most common type of indicators. Oscillator indicators
have a range, for example between zero and 100, and signal periods where the
security is overbought (near 100) or oversold (near zero). Non-bounded indicators
still form buy and sell signals along with displaying strength or weakness, but they
vary in the way they do this.
The two main ways that indicators are used to form buy and sell signals in
technical analysis is through crossovers and divergence. Crossovers are the most
popular and are reflected when either the
price moves through the moving average,
or when two different moving averages
cross over each other.The second way
indicators are used is through divergence,
which happens when the direction of the price trend and the direction of the
indicator trend are moving in the opposite direction. This signals to indicator users
that the direction of the price trend is weakening.
Indicators that are used in technical analysis provide an extremely useful source of
additional information. These indicators help identify momentum, trends, volatility
and various other aspects in a security to aid in the technical analysis of trends. It
is important to note that while some traders use a single indicator solely for buy
and sell signals, they are best used in conjunction with price movement, chart
patterns and other indicators.
Accumulation/Distribution Line
The accumulation/distribution line is one of the more popular volume indicators
that measures money flows in a security. This indicator attempts to measure the
ratio of buying to selling by comparing the price movement of a period to the
volume of that period.
Calculated:
This is a non-bounded indicator that simply keeps a running sum over the period of
the security. Traders look for trends in this indicator to gain insight on the amount
of purchasing compared to selling of a security. If a security has an
accumulation/distribution line that is trending upward, it is a sign that there is more
buying than selling.
Aroon
The Aroon indicator is a relatively new technical indicator that was created in 1995.
The Aroon is a trending indicator used to measure whether a security is in an
uptrend or downtrend and the magnitude of that trend. The indicator is also used
to predict when a new trend is beginning.
The indicator is comprised of two lines, an "Aroon up" line (blue line) and an
"Aroon down" line (red dotted line). The Aroon up line measures the amount of
time it has been since the highest price during the time period. The Aroon down
line, on the other hand, measures the amount of time since the lowest price during
the time period. The number of periods that are used in the calculation is
dependent on the time frame that the user wants to analyze.
Figure 1
Aroon Oscillator
An expansion of the Aroon is the Aroon oscillator, which simply plots the difference
between the Aroon up and down lines by subtracting the two lines. This line is then
plotted between a range of -100 and 100. The centerline at zero in the oscillator is
considered to be a major signal line determining the trend. The higher the value of
the oscillator from the centerline point, the more upward strength there is in the
security; the lower the oscillator's value is from the centerline, the more downward
pressure. A trend reversal is signaled when the oscillator crosses through the
centerline. For example, when the oscillator goes from positive to negative, a
downward trend is confirmed. Divergence is also used in the oscillator to predict
trend reversals. A reversal warning is formed when the oscillator and the price
trend are moving in an opposite direction.
The Aroon lines and Aroon oscillators are fairly simple concepts to understand but
yield powerful information about trends. This is another great indicator to add to
any technical trader's arsenal.
When the MACD is positive, it signals that the shorter term moving average is
above the longer term moving average and suggests upward momentum. The
opposite holds true when the MACD is negative - this signals that the shorter term
is below the longer and suggest downward momentum. When the MACD line
crosses over the centerline, it signals a crossing in the moving averages. The most
common moving average values used in the calculation are the 26-day and 12-day
exponential moving averages. The signal line is commonly created by using a
nine-day exponential moving average of the MACD values. These values can be
adjusted to meet the needs of the technician and the security. For more volatile
securities, shorter term averages are used while less volatile securities should
have longer averages.
Another aspect to the MACD indicator that is often found on charts is the MACD
histogram. The histogram is plotted on the centerline and represented by bars.
Each bar is the difference between the MACD and the signal line or, in most
cases, the nine-day exponential moving average. The higher the bars are in either
direction, the more momentum behind the direction in which the bars point. (For
more on this, see Moving Average Convergence Divergence - Part 1 and Part 2,
and Trading The MACD Divergence.)
As you can see in Figure 2, one of the most common buy signals is generated
when the MACD crosses above the signal line (blue dotted line), while sell signals
often occur when the MACD crosses below the signal.
Figure 2
Figure 3
The standard calculation for RSI uses 14 trading days as the basis, which can be
adjusted to meet the needs of the user. If the trading period is adjusted to use
fewer days, the RSI will be more volatile and will be used for shorter term trades.
(To read more, see Momentum And The Relative Strength Index, Relative
Strength Index And Its Failure-Swing Points and Getting To Know Oscillators -
Part 1 and Part 2.)
On-Balance Volume
The on-balance volume (OBV) indicator is a well-known technical indicator that
reflect movements in volume. It is also one of the simplest volume indicators to
compute and understand.
The OBV is calculated by taking the total volume for the trading period and
assigning it a positive or negative value depending on whether the price is up or
down during the trading period. When price is up during the trading period, the
volume is assigned a positive value, while a negative value is assigned when the
price is down for the period. The positive or negative volume total for the period is
then added to a total that is accumulated from the start of the measure.
It is important to focus on the trend in the OBV - this is more important than the
actual value of the OBV measure. This measure expands on the basic volume
measure by combining volume and price movement. (For more insight, see
Introduction To On-Balance Volume.)
Stochastic Oscillator
The stochastic oscillator is one of the most recognized momentum indicators used
in technical analysis. The idea behind this indicator is that in an uptrend, the price
should be closing near the highs of the trading range, signaling upward momentum
in the security. In downtrends, the price should be closing near the lows of the
trading range, signaling downward momentum.
The stochastic oscillator is plotted within a range of zero and 100 and signals
overbought conditions above 80 and oversold conditions below 20. The stochastic
oscillator contains two lines. The first line is the %K, which is essentially the raw
measure used to formulate the idea of momentum behind the oscillator. The
second line is the %D, which is simply a moving average of the %K. The %D line is
considered to be the more important of the two lines as it is seen to produce better
signals. The stochastic oscillator generally uses the past 14 trading periods in its
calculation but can be adjusted to meet the needs of the user. (To read more,
check out Getting To Know Oscillators - Part 3.)
Figure 4
Technical Analysis:
Conclusion
This introductory section of the technical
analysis tutorial has provided a broad
overview of technical analysis.