Traffic Progression Models

Lecture notes in Traffic Engineering And Management

Date: February 19, 2014
Contents

Introduction

Characterizing Platoon
o Variables describing platoon
o Platoon Ratio

Platoon Dispersion
o Platoon Dispersion Models
o Robertson's Platoon Dispersion Model

Conclusion

References

Acknowledgments

Introduction
A majority of the metro cities in India are facing the problem of traffic congestion, delays, which
have further resulted in pollution. The delays are caused mainly due to the isolated functioning of
the traffic signals at closely located intersections. For better regulation of traffic flow at these
intersections, the traffic signals need to be coordinated or linked. For the linking of signals, the

vehicle movement characteristics from upstream signal to downstream signal need to be

considered and simulated. Traffic Progression Models model the vehicle movement
characteristics and help in the linking of signals. First, the concept of platoon, platoon variables
is discussed and then platoon ratio is defined which is required for determination of arrival type.
Then, the phenomenon of platoon dispersion and platoon dispersion model is introduced for
understanding dispersion behavior of the vehicles. Finally, one of the platoon dispersion models
i.e., Roberson's platoon dispersion model is discussed, which estimates the vehicle arrivals at
downstream locations based on an upstream departure profile.

Characterizing Platoon
A vehicle Platoon is defined as a group of vehicles travelling together. A vehicle Platoon is
shown in Fig. 1.
Variables describing platoon
The various vehicle platoon characteristics or variables include platoon size, platoon headway,
platoon speed and inter-arrival headway. Platoon behaviour and distribution patterns could be
identified with respect to these parameters. The various platoon characteristics are illustrated in
Fig. 2.

Figure 1: A vehicle Platoon

Figure 2: Illustration of Platoon Variables

Platoon Size (Np): It is the number of vehicles in a platoon.

Platoon Headway (hp): It is the average value of headways within a platoon.

Platoon Speed (Vp): It is the average speed of all the vehicles within a platoon.

Inter-Arrival (IA): It is the headway between the last vehicle of the preceding platoon
and the first vehicle of the following platoon.

Various values of platoon headway and inter-arrival between consecutive platoons can be used to
determine appropriate critical headway for platoon identification and detection. Once the critical
headway is determined, platoon size and platoon speed can be detected to calculate the signal
timing adjustment to accommodate the approaching vehicle platoon. It is of great importance to
select a proper value of the critical headway since a small change in the critical headway will
generate tremendous changes in the resultant platoon characteristics. Use of a large critical
headway will result in a large average platoon size and require a large detection area in order to
detect large vehicle platoons. Consequently, a large detection area leads to an increase of detector

installation and maintenance costs. On the other hand, use of a small critical headway will result
in a small average platoon size, but may not provide sufficient vehicle platoon information.
Therefore, it is desired to find an appropriate critical headway so that sufficient platoon
information can be obtained within a proper detection area. Research has shown that headways
are rarely less than 0.5 seconds or over 10 seconds at different traffic volumes. Many
investigations have been done on finding the effects of critical headways of 1.2, 1.5, 2.1 and 2.7
seconds on platoon behaviour and these investigations have shown that a critical headway of 2.1
seconds corresponding to a traffic volume of 1500 vehicles per hour per lane (vphpl) can be
taken for data collection.
Platoon Ratio
The platoon ratio denoted as Rp, is a numerical value used to quantify the quality of progression
on an approach. The platoon ratio represents the ratio of the number of vehicles arriving during
the green phase to the proportion of the green interval of the total cycle. This is given by
(1
)

where, P = Proportion of all vehicles during green time, C = Cycle length, g = Effective green
time. Its value ranges from 0.5 to 2.0. It is used in the calculation of delays, capacity of an
approach. The arrival types range from 1 (worst platoon condition) to 6 (the best platoon
condition). The platoon ratio approximates the arrival type and the progression quality. For
example HCM (2000) has suggested the following relationship between platoon ratio and arrival
which is as shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Relationship between Arrival Type and Platoon Ratio
Arrival

type

Range of platoon

Default value

Progression quality

ratio

0.333

Very poor

0.667

Unfavorable

1.000

Random arrivals

1.333

Favorable

1.667

Highly favorable

2.000

Exceptional

Platoon Dispersion
As a platoon moves downstream from an upstream intersection, the vehicles disperse i.e., the
distance between the vehicles increase which may be due to the differences in the vehicle speeds,
vehicle interactions (lane changing and merging) and other interferences (parking, pedestrians,
etc.,). This phenomenon is called as Platoon Dispersion.
Dispersion has been found to be a function of the travel time from a signal to a downstream
signal (or other downstream location) and the length of the platoon. The longer the travel time
between signals, the greater the dispersion. This is intuitively logical since the longer the travel
time, the more time (opportunity) there is for different drivers to deviate from the average travel
time. A simple case of Platoon Dispersion is as shown in Fig. 3. From the figure, it can be
observed that, initially the peak of the platoon is high and the length of the platoon is
comparatively small, but as the platoon progresses downstream, the peak of the platoon
decreases and the length increases.

Figure 3: A simple case of Platoon Dispersion

Various traffic engineering software like TRANSYT (Traffic Network Study Tool) and SCOOT
(Split Cycle Offset Optimization Technique) have employed the phenomenon of Platoon
Dispersion for the prediction of Arrival Types. A flow profile obtained from TRANSYT-7F is as
shown in the Fig. 4. From this figure also, it can be observed that, initially the peak of the
platoon is high and the length of the platoon is small, but as the platoon progresses downstream,
the peak of the platoon decreases and the length increases.

Figure 4: A TRANSYT-7F Flow Profile

Platoon Dispersion Models

Platoon dispersion models simulate the dispersion of a traffic stream as it travels downstream by
estimating vehicle arrivals at downstream locations based on an upstream vehicle departure
profile and a desired traffic-stream speed. There are two kinds of mathematical models
describing the dispersion of the platoon, namely:
1. Normal Distribution Model - proposed by Pacey
2. Geometric Distribution Model - proposed by Robertson
One of the geometric distribution models is the Robertson's platoon dispersion model, which has
become a virtually universal standard platoon dispersion model and has been implemented in

various traffic simulation software. Research has already been conducted on the applicability of
platoon dispersion as a reliable traffic movement model in urban street networks. Most of the
research has shown that Robertson's model of platoon dispersion is reliable, accurate, and robust.
Robertson's Platoon Dispersion Model
The basic Robertson's recursive platoon dispersion model takes the following mathematical form
(2
)

where,
= arrival flow rate at the downstream signal at time t,
= departure flow rate at
the upstream signal at time t-T, T = minimum travel time on the link (measured in terms of unit
steps T =
),
= average link travel time, n = modeling time step duration,
smoothing factor given by:

is the

(3
)

= platoon dispersion factor (unit less)

= travel time factor (unit less) Equation shows
that the arrival flows in each time period at each intersection are dependent on the departure
flows from other intersections. Note that the Robertson's platoon dispersion equation means that
the traffic flow
, which arrives during a given time step at the downstream end of a link, is a
weighted combination of the arrival pattern at the downstream end of the link during the
previous time step
ago

and the departure pattern from the upstream traffic signal T seconds

Fig. 5 gives the graphical representation of the model. It clearly shows that predicated flow rate
at any time step is a linear combination of the original platoon flow rate in the corresponding
time step (with a lag time of t) and the flow rate of the predicted platoon in the step immediately
preceding it. Since the dispersion model gives the downstream flow at a given time interval, the

model needs to be applied recursively to predict the flow. Seddon developed a numerical
procedure for platoon dispersion. He rewrote Robertson's equation as,

(4
)

Figure 5: Graphical Representation of Robertson's Platoon Dispersion

Model

This equation demonstrates that the downstream traffic flow computed using the Robertson's
platoon dispersion model follows a shifted geometric series, which estimates the contribution of
an upstream flow in the
interval to the downstream flow in the
interval. A
successful application of Robertson's platoon dispersion model relies on the appropriate
calibration of the model parameters. Research has shown that the travel-time factor

is

dependent on the platoon dispersion factor

. Using the basic properties of the geometric
distribution of Equation 5, the following equations have been derived for calibrating the
parameters of the Robertson platoon dispersion model.
(5
)

Equation 5 demonstrates that the value of the travel time factor

is dependent on the value of

the platoon dispersion factor

and thus a value of 0.8 as assumed by Robertson results in
inconsistencies in the formulation. Further, the model requires calibration of only one of them
and the other factors can be obtained subsequently.
(6
)

where,
is the standard deviation of link travel times and
is the average travel time
between upstream and downstream intersections. Equation demonstrates that travel time factor
can be obtained knowing the average travel time, time step for modeling and standard deviation
of the travel time on the road stretch.
(7
)

Equation 7 further permits the calculation of the smoothing factor directly from the standard
deviation of the link travel time and time step of modeling. Thus, both
and
can be
mathematically determined as long as the average link travel time, time step for modeling and its
standard deviation are given.

Numerical Example 1
In a case study, the average travel time for a particular stretch was found out to be 22.8 seconds,
standard deviation is 5.951 and model time step duration is 10 sec. Find out the Robertson's
model parameters and also the flow at downstream at different time steps where the upstream
flows are as given as:
.
Solution
Given, The model time step duration n=10sec, average travel time (
deviation ( )=5.951. From equations above.

)=22.8sec, standard

Upstream Flows:
Since the modelling time step duration is given as n=10 sec, the given upstream flows can be
written as follows:

On similar lines ,

can be written.

Downstream Flows:
On the downstream, at 10 sec the flow will be zero since the modelling step duration is 10 sec.
Hence the downstream flows can be written as follows.

Similarly, downstream flows can be written till 80 sec. Note that since n=10 sec, T is taken in
units of n. The minimum travel time (T) is given as

Calculating on similar lines, we get

The total upstream vehicles in 60 sec is 89. And total downstream vehicles in 80 sec is 89. That
is, all 89 vehicles coming from upstream in 6 intervals took 7 intervals to pass the downstream.
Numerical Example 2
In a case study, the average travel time from the upstream point to 1st downward point (point in
between upstream and downstream) was found out to be 22.8 seconds and from upstream point
to downward point (end point) was found out to be 32.8 seconds , standard deviation is 5.951 and
model time step duration is 10 sec. Find out the Robertson's model parameters and also the flow
at downstream at different time steps where the upstream flows are as given below.
.
Solution
This problem is similar to the earlier problem. Only there are 2 downstream points given in this.
For the first downstream point, upstream values of flow given in the problem will be used,
whereas for the

downstream point, the flow from the

downstream point is to be used.

Hence at
downstream point, flow in the first interval is zero and at the
downstream
value, flow is zero for first 2 intervals. The calculations have been done in excel and the
following shows the results.

Upstream Vol. for (in sec.)

No. of Vehicles

10

20

20

10

30

15

40

18

50

14

60

12

89

Smoothing Factor F

0.783

Lag Time(For In Between Point)

20 sec

Lag Time(For End Point)

30 sec

Downstream Volume

Downstream Volume

At in between Point

At End Point

(in seconds)

(in seconds)

10

10

0.00

20

15.66

20

0.00

30

11.23

30

12.26

40

14.18

40

11.45

50

17.17

50

13.59

60

14.69

60

16.39

70

12.58

70

15.06

80

2.73

80

13.12

90

0.59

90

4.99

100

0.13

100

1.55

0.00

110

0.44

88.96

120

0.09

88.84
Four graphs are plotted below. The first graph shows the upstream profile, the second shows the
downstream profile at in between point, the third shows the downstream profile at the end point.
The last graph shows the comparison of all the three.

Conclusion
Initially, the concept of platoon and platoon variables was discussed. The platoon variables are
required for the determination of critical headway which further helps in platoon identification.
Then, the platoon ratio was defined which helps us in identifying the arrival type. Later, platoon
dispersion model was discussed which model the departure profile of the downstream vehicles
based on the upstream departure profile. Finally, Robertson's platoon dispersion model is
discussed with the help of numerical examples. The Robertson's platoon dispersion model
estimates the downstream volume at different time intervals which can be used for the linking of
the signals and optimization of signal timings.
References
1. Highway Capacity Manual. Transportation Research Board. National Research Council,
Washington, D.C., 2000.
2. Y Jiang, L Shou, and E Daniel. A Platoon-based Traffic Signal Timing Algorithm for
Major-Minor Intersection Types. Transportation Research Part B 40, 2006.
3. A Manar and K G Baass. Traffic Flow Theory and Traffic flow simulation models.
Transportation Research Record: 1566, 1996.
4. F Qiao, H Yang, and W Lam. Intelligent simulation and prediction of traffic flow
dispersion. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 35(9), 2001.

5. H Rakha and M Farzaneh. Calibration of TRANSYT Traffic Dispersion Model: Issues and
Proposed Solutions. Virginia Tech Transportation Institute, 2004.
6. R H Showers. Investigation and Enhancement of models that describe the flow of traffic
on arterial streets. A Ph.D. Thesis submitted to the University of Florida,4,73,97, 2002.
7. W Wey. Model formulation and solution algorithm of traffic signal control in an urban
network. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 24, 2000.
Acknowledgments
I wish to thank my student Mr. Chetan Kumar and Ms. K Sravya for their assistance in
developing the lecture note, and my staff Mr. Rayan in typesetting the materials. I also wish to
thank several of my students and staff of NPTEL for their contribution in this lecture.
Prof. Tom V. Mathew 2014-02-19