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Reliability & Probability

The document provides examples of calculating system reliability using the product rule of reliability and unreliability. It defines component and system reliability. For a system of 10 identical components each with 0.95 reliability, the system reliability is 0.5987. For a system requiring 0.999 reliability using 0.7 reliability components, the minimum number of components is 6. It also shows a general method for deriving unreliability expressions for series and parallel systems using reliability block diagrams.

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Jamie Samuel
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23 views4 pages

Reliability & Probability

The document provides examples of calculating system reliability using the product rule of reliability and unreliability. It defines component and system reliability. For a system of 10 identical components each with 0.95 reliability, the system reliability is 0.5987. For a system requiring 0.999 reliability using 0.7 reliability components, the minimum number of components is 6. It also shows a general method for deriving unreliability expressions for series and parallel systems using reliability block diagrams.

Uploaded by

Jamie Samuel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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10/19/2012

Example:
A system consists of 10 identical components, all of
which must work for system success. What is the system
reliability if each component has a reliability of 0.95?
Component reliability,

R = 0.95

Number of components, n = 10

Using Product Rule of Reliability,


System Reliability, Rs = Rn
= (0.95)10 = 0.5987

Example:
A system is to be designed with an overall reliability of 0.999 using
components having individual reliabilities of 0.7. What is the minimum
number of components that must be connected in parallel?
System Reliability,

Rs = 0.999

Component reliability, R = 0.7


Number of components, n = ?
System Unreliability,

Qs = 1 - Rs = 1 0.999 = 0.001

Component Unreliability, Q = 1 R = 1 0.7 = 0.3

Using Product Rule of Unreliability,

Qs = Qn

i.e.

0.001 = (0.3)n

therefore, n = ln (0.001) / ln(0.3) = 5.74


since n is an integer,

n=6

10/19/2012

Series/Parallel Systems
Telcom. Repeater Station
Power Supply System

0.10

0.01

DG

Rectifier

3
1
4

Cable
0.01

Battery Bank

Network Reduction Technique


RX = R2.R3
QY = QX.Q4
RY = 1 - QX.Q4
= 1 (1-RX).(1-R4)

0.07

X
1
4

RS = RY.R1

= 0.98245

Example:
Derive a general expression for the unreliability of the model
shown below, and hence evaluate the unreliability of the system
if all components have a reliability of 0.8.

input

Output

Reliability Network Model (Reliability Block Diagram) of the System

10

10/19/2012

Ri = 0.8 for i = 1 to 5

Q8 = Q7 . Q5
= (1 - R7). Q5
= (1 - R1 . R2 . R6). Q5
= [1 - R1 . R2 . (1 - Q6)]. Q5
= [1 - R1 . R2 . (1 - Q3 . Q4)]. Q5
Q8 = [1 0.8 x 0.8 (1 0.2 x 0.2)]x 0.2 = 0.07712
11

Example:
Derive a general expression for the unreliability of the system whose
reliability model is shown below.

2/3

1
3

input

Output

7
Reliability Network Model (Reliability Block Diagram) of the System
13

10/19/2012

2/3
4

1
3

Q 8 = Q2 . Q 3
1

10

If Components 4, 5 and 6 are identical,


each with reliability R,
R9 = R3 + 3R2Q
Otherwise
R9 = R4 R5 R6 + R4 R5 Q6 + R4 Q5 R6 + Q4 R5 R6

R10 = R1 R8 R9

11

Qs = Q10 . Q7
= (1 R10). Q7
= (1 - R1 . R8 . R9). Q7
= [1 - R1 (1 Q8).R9 ]. Q7
14
= [1 - R1 (1 Q2 .Q3). R4 R5 R6 + R4 R5 Q6 + R4 Q5 R6 + Q4 R5 R6 ]. Q7

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