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Chapter3 Output Variability

This document discusses output variability in manufacturing systems and how it affects the service level. It defines service level as the probability of meeting a customer order of a certain size within a given due date. An example is provided to estimate the service level for different order sizes to be delivered within 8 days, based on production data from a sample period. Graphs illustrate how the service level varies with order size, due date, and across different order size and due date combinations.

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Anan Aghbar
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© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
12 views

Chapter3 Output Variability

This document discusses output variability in manufacturing systems and how it affects the service level. It defines service level as the probability of meeting a customer order of a certain size within a given due date. An example is provided to estimate the service level for different order sizes to be delivered within 8 days, based on production data from a sample period. Graphs illustrate how the service level varies with order size, due date, and across different order size and due date combinations.

Uploaded by

Anan Aghbar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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2/19/2013

Manufacturing Output Variability


and the Service Level
Output variability occurs in manufacturing systems
due to:
Manual labor performance variability
Machines failure and repair mechanisms

Output Variability at Scania Engine


Production Line
200

Number of parts produced

175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0

10

20

30

40

50
Day

60

70

80

90

100

2/19/2013

The main output variable of interest is the total


amount of parts produced by the system during the
time period [1,t]
This variable, denoted with Zt, is random with
expected value E[Zt] and variance var[Zt], which both
depend on the time period of evaluation as they are
increasing functions in t.

The Service Level

Zt approximately normally distributed


This enables calculating the Service Level (SL) which
is, the probability to meet a certain customer order
(composed of x products) within a certain due time t.
x Rp t

SL( x, t ) PZ t x 1
v t

where,
v lim
t

varZ t
t

2/19/2013

Example
An industrial engineer collected and reported to you
the daily production quantities from a production line
over a period of two weeks. Estimate the SL of the
system for orders 350, 940 and 1012 products to be
delivered within 8 days?
Day
Q(daily)

10

122

165

95

135

88

126

177

125

78

93

Example
Daily Rp = avg [122, 165, 93] = 120.4 product/day

v var[122,165 , 93] / 10 = 107.8 product2 /day


350 120.4 8
SL(350,8) 1
1
107.8 8

940 120.4 8
SL(940,8) 1
0.785
107.8 8

1012 120.4 8
SL(1012,8) 1
0.05
107.8 8

2/19/2013

SL vs. order size (x) for due date = 8


days
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

Order size

SL vs due date (t) for an order of


900 products
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

due date

900
940
980
1020
1060
1100
1140
1180
1220
1260
1300
1340
1380
1420
1460
1500
1540
1580
1620
1660
1700
1740
1780
1820
1860
1900
1940
1980
2020
2060
2100

2/19/2013

SL as a function of (x,t)
1

0.8

0.6
0.8-1

0.6-0.8

0.4
0.4-0.6

0.2
12
0.2-0.4

0
10

0-0.2

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