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CHAPTER 4: Example 1: Forecasting Moving Averages - 3 Period Moving Average

This document provides an example of using a 3 period moving average to forecast demand over a 12 month period. It includes the actual demand data, the forecasts generated by the moving average model, and various error metrics to evaluate forecast accuracy including MAD, MSE, MAPE, and absolute percentage error. A graph is also shown comparing the actual demand to the forecasts over time.

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278 views3 pages

CHAPTER 4: Example 1: Forecasting Moving Averages - 3 Period Moving Average

This document provides an example of using a 3 period moving average to forecast demand over a 12 month period. It includes the actual demand data, the forecasts generated by the moving average model, and various error metrics to evaluate forecast accuracy including MAD, MSE, MAPE, and absolute percentage error. A graph is also shown comparing the actual demand to the forecasts over time.

Uploaded by

MM
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CHAPTER 4: Example 1

Forecasting

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Data
Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Forecasts and Error Analysis


Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14

11.67
13.67
16.00
19.33
22.67
26.33
28.00
25.33
20.67

4.33
5.33
7.00
6.67
7.33
1.67
-10.00
-9.33
-6.67
6.33
0.70

Total
Average
Bias
Next period

16

Squared

4.33
5.33
7.00
6.67
7.33
1.67
10.00
9.33
6.67
58.33
6.48
MAD
SE

18.78
28.44
49.00
44.44
53.78
2.78
100.00
87.11
44.44
428.78
47.64
MSE
7.83

Abs Pct Err

27.08%
28.07%
30.43%
25.64%
24.44%
05.95%
55.56%
58.33%
47.62%
303.13%
33.68%
MAPE

Forecasting
35
30
25
20
Value

15
10
5
0
1

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

11

12

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