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Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a forecasting technique that relies on questionnaires sent to a panel of experts anonymously over multiple rounds. It aims to build consensus among experts by having them refine their predictions based on the group's collective responses. Key steps involve choosing a facilitator, selecting experts, defining the problem, and conducting three rounds of anonymous questioning and feedback. Advantages include focusing on ideas rather than individuals, saving travel costs, and allowing more participation. Disadvantages include the time-consuming coordination and risk of participant drop-outs.

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152 views

Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a forecasting technique that relies on questionnaires sent to a panel of experts anonymously over multiple rounds. It aims to build consensus among experts by having them refine their predictions based on the group's collective responses. Key steps involve choosing a facilitator, selecting experts, defining the problem, and conducting three rounds of anonymous questioning and feedback. Advantages include focusing on ideas rather than individuals, saving travel costs, and allowing more participation. Disadvantages include the time-consuming coordination and risk of participant drop-outs.

Uploaded by

avi2015
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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DELPHI METHOD

What is Delphi method?

A forecasting method based on the


results of questionnaires sent to a panel
of experts.

Several rounds of questionnaires are sent


out, and the anonymous responses are
aggregated and shared with the group
after each round.

The Delphi method was developed at the


beginning of the cold war to forecast the

Steps involved in Delphi


technique

Step1: Choose a facilitator.


Step2: Identify your experts.
Step3: Define the problem.
Step4: Round one questions.
Step5:Round two questions.
Step6:Round three questions.
Step7: Act on your findings.

Advantages

Focus is on idea rather than individuals.


Time and cost of participants travelling to
meetings is saved, while still enabling
their participation.
More participants can be involved than a
face to face method allows.
The anonymity of participants is
preserved.
Provides a structured way for a group of
people to make decisions

Disadvantages

Process is time consuming to coordinate


and manage.
Dunham (1998) states that coordination of
the Delphi technique using email with 20
participants and the processing of three
questionnaires could utilize 30 40 hours of
the coordinators time.
It can be difficult to maintain active
participation by participants the whole way
through, and so drop outs are more likely
than at one off meetings.

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