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Forecasting Models

The document presents three different exponential smoothing techniques: simple exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, and exponential smoothing with seasonal adjustment. Simple exponential smoothing is applied to occupancy data with an alpha of 0.5. Exponential smoothing with trend adjustment is then applied to another occupancy data set with alpha=0.3 and beta=0.5. Finally, exponential smoothing with seasonal adjustment is demonstrated on monthly passenger data with alpha=0.2 and gamma=0.3.

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Vlad
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61 views

Forecasting Models

The document presents three different exponential smoothing techniques: simple exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, and exponential smoothing with seasonal adjustment. Simple exponential smoothing is applied to occupancy data with an alpha of 0.5. Exponential smoothing with trend adjustment is then applied to another occupancy data set with alpha=0.3 and beta=0.5. Finally, exponential smoothing with seasonal adjustment is demonstrated on monthly passenger data with alpha=0.2 and gamma=0.3.

Uploaded by

Vlad
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Simple Exponential Smoothing

Aug. 1
8
15
22
29
Sept. 5

0.5

t
1
2
3
4
5
6

Actual
Occupancy
At
79
84
83
81
98
100

Smoothed
Value
St
79.00
81.50
82.25
81.63
89.81
94.91
Total
MAD

Forecast

Error

Ft

At - Ft
79
82
82
82
90

5
2
(1)
16
10
32

|At - Ft|
5
2
1
16
10
34
6.86

Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment


=
b=

0.3
0.5
Week
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Actual
Occupancy
At
31
40
43
52
49
64
58
68

Smoothed
Value
St
31.00
33.70
37.44
43.58
48.25
56.13
61.03
67.00

Total
MAD

Smoothed
Trend
Tt
0
1.35
2.54
4.35
4.51
6.19
5.54
5.76

Forecast
Ft
31
35
40
48
53
62
67

djustment

Error
At - Ft
9
8
12
1
11
(4)
1

38

|At - Ft|
9
8
12
1
11
4
1

47
6.72

Exponential Smoothing with Seasonal Adjustment


=
y=

0.2
0.3

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Actual
passengers
At
1,651
1,305
1,617
1,721
2,015
2,297
2,606
2,687
2,292
1,981
1,696
1,794

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

1,806
1,731
1,733
1,904
2,036
2,560
2,679
2,821
2,359
2,160
1,802
1,853

Period
2013

Smoothed
Value
St

1794

Index
It
0.837
0.662
0.820
0.873
1.022
1.165
1.322
1.363
1.162
1.005
0.860
0.910

2014
1,866.59
2,016.38
2,035.76
2,064.91
2,050.40
2,079.84
2,069.29
2,069.46
2,061.47
2,079.17
2,082.35
2,073.22
Total
MAD

0.876
0.721
0.829
0.888
1.013
1.185
1.314
1.363
1.157
1.015
0.862
0.905

asonal Adjustment

Forecast

Error

Ft

|At - Ft|

1,235.35
1,653.53
1,776.79
2,110.11
2,388.53
2,748.75
2,819.80
2,405.48
2,071.05
1,788.32
1,894.55

496
79
127
74
171
70
1
46
89
14
42
1,210
109.96

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