Deloitte Valuations Workshop
Deloitte Valuations Workshop
Deloitte Valuations Workshop
Fundamentals of Valuation
Private and Confidential
November 5, 2014
Fundamentals of valuation
This evenings speakers
Ian Wanke
Vice President
Corporate Finance
(604) 640-3355
[email protected]
Ian is a Vice President in our mid-market corporate finance practice in Vancouver. Focused on
mergers and acquisitions, and financing for growth, Ian has led several transactions which have
involved strategic private and public acquirers, as well as, private equity acquirers. Ian has experience
working in manufacturing, food and beverage, mining, real estate, forestry, and other business to
business operations.
Prior to joining the corporate finance practice, Ian gained experience working for a local private equity
company, assisting with the successful close of mid-market acquisitions. Ian is a Chartered Accountant
and a Chartered Business Valuator and he holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree from the Sauder
School of Business. Ian serves as the Treasurer on the Board of the Dixon Transition Society and he
has been published by the Chartered Professional Accountants Association of BC for articles in M&A.
Kayli Clark
Senior Associate
Valuations
Vancouver
Direct: +1 604-640-4984
Email: [email protected]
Chelsea Jiang
Analyst,
Corporate Finance
Vancouver
Direct: +1 604-601-3496
Email: [email protected]
Kayli is a Senior Associate in our business valuations practice in Vancouver. During her time at Deloitte
Kayli has specialized in mining valuations in connection with mergers and acquisitions, disputes,
income tax planning and corporate restructurings. In addition to mining, Kayli has experience working in
manufacturing, forestry, healthcare and consumer goods.
Prior to joining the Valuations team at Deloitte, Kayli worked for a biotechnology investment fund
specializing in early stage medical device companies. Kayli is currently pursuing both her CA and CBV
designations and she holds an Honours Business Administration Degree from the Ivey School of
Business.
Chelsea is an Analyst in the Corporate Finance Advisory group in Vancouver. During her time at
Deloitte Chelsea has focused on research in the metals and mining sector, supporting public company
mergers and acquisitions, project financing and advisory mandates.
Prior to joining the team at Deloitte, Chelsea worked for an Equity Research firm in their metals and
mining team. Chelsea currently holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from the Simon Fraser
University.
Fundamentals of valuation
Agenda
Deloitte at a glance
Corporate finance part of a complete solution
Audit
Financial
Advisory
Industry
Financial Services
Manufacturing
Mid-Market
Corporate Finance
Private Equity
Valuation
Services
Forensic &
Dispute Services
Lender due
diligence
Purchase price
allocation
Forensic
investigations
Private equity
capital raise
Vendor due
diligence
Goodwill
impairment
Debt advisory
Acquisitions,
reverse takeovers
Structured finance
Analytic &
forensic
technology
Management buyouts
Public Corporate
Finance
Fairness opinion
Capital markets
and IPO advisory
Transaction
Services
Divestitures &
acquisitions
Options analysis
Consulting
Financial Advisory
Consumer
Business
Engineering &
Construction
Tax
Public Sector
Board advisory
Technology,
Media & Telecom
Shareholder value
analysis, strategic
partnerships and
joint ventures
Acquisition &
investments by
private equity
groups and
financial buyers
Business &
intangible asset
valuations
Reorganization
Services
Turnaround
Loan portfolio
management
Stressed and
distressed
advisory services
Dispute
consulting
Liquidation
Pricing analysis
Class action
services
Insolvency
services
Fairness opinions
Expert witness
Litigation support
Performance
Improvement
Anti-money
laundering
Merger
Integration
Business
intelligence
Anti-corruption
31%
69%
Advisory
Audit
Africa: Johannesburg
Europe: London, Paris, Madrid, Brussels, Oslo, Frankfurt, Berlin, Moscow, Munich, Rome, Warsaw
Capital Raising
Corporate Advisory
Outsource corporate
development
Strategic assessment
and analysis
Board, shareholder
services
Other
Capital raising
Fairness opinions
Option analysis
Capital projects
Private placements
Safety assessment
Strategic investors
Deloitte as one
David Lam
Partner, MidMarket Advisory
Dallas Mcmurtrie
Partner, M&A Tax
Advisory
Doug Beaton
Vice President &
Director
Europe
Austria
Belgium
Central Europe
Denmark
France
Finland
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
North America
Canada
Mexico
United States
- Chicago
- Dallas
- Detroit
- Los Angeles
- New York
South America
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Ian Wanke
Vice President
Ashton Scordo
Senior Analyst
Africa
South Africa
Nigeria
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Switzerland
Russia
Turkey
United Kingdom
Asia Pacific
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Middle East
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Qatar
Matt Miller
Analyst
Matt Meyer
Senior VP
Rob Olsen
Partner
Cahal Dowds
Vice Chairman
Los Angeles
Toronto
UK London
Simon Gisby
Partner, CF
New York
Will Frame
Senior VP
Ronald Chao
Partner
Avinash Gupta
Partner
Chicago
Beijing
India
Overview
Central
20 professionals
Chicago
Detroit
Proven track record under Mr. Hugh L. McColl Jr., former Chairman
and Chief Executive Officer of Bank of America
Northeast
15 professionals
New York
West
15 professionals
Los Angeles
Southeast
58 professionals
Atlanta
Charlotte
Mid-America
9 professionals
Dallas
Houston
Talent
Number of Partners/Principals/Directors: 25
has acquired
has acquired
has acquired
Has acquired
Has acquired an interest in
Has sold 50% of its interest in
Agrifoods International
acquired selected business locations from
has acquired
has acquired
Has acquired
invested in
Has acquired
&
Earths Own and Meadowfresh
INLAND PACIFIC DISTRIBUTORS LTD.
The undersigned acted as exclusive
advisor to Tom Harris Cellular
September 2012
The undersigned acted as exclusive
advisor to Kicking Horse Coffee.
Has acquired
Has acquired an interest in
Has invested in
Has acquired
Has acquired
Has acquired
a subsidiary of
Has acquired
Has acquired
Has acquired
Has acquired
Has acquired
Has acquired
10
Maple Ridge, BC
Line of business:
Ownership:
Private; 3 Entrepreneurs
Assignment:
RSTs products provide critical data and geotechnical measurement information for: civil
infrastructure projects, mine site construction and monitoring, oil and gas and pipeline
developments, as well as, environmental and utility projects. RST has customer around
the globe.
Process:
Prepped the business for sale, completed a vendor due diligence assignment, and
reached out to a list of 128 prospective purchasers developed by Deloitte.
Outcome:
We are glad to have Deloitte on our side. Their level of execution, experience and access to global investors ensured that we had all the right
players at the table. We have now secured a partnership for our company that will accelerate further growth and opportunities for us. From
transaction readiness, to marketing, to negotiations, the Deloitte team guided us every step of the way to achieve the best possible results. Thank
you Deloitte and a job well done to David and Ian.
Rob Taylor, President & CEO of R.S.T. Instruments Ltd.
11
Valuation concepts
12
Valuation concepts
Use of valuation
What is the purpose of a valuation exercise?
Value a purchase
Value a sale
13
Valuation concepts
Elements of value
What is the difference between Equity Value and Enterprise Value?
Fundamental valuation equation
Enterprise Value
= FMV of equity + FMV of debt Redundant assets
Re-arranged
Equity Value
= Enterprise value - FMV of debt + Redundant assets
14
FMV of Equity
= Common shares + Preferred
shares +Minority interest
Enterprise Value
= Discounted free cash flows +
Terminal value
Valuation concepts
Capital structure
Mortgage
(aka Debt)
Down
Payment
(aka
Equity)
Asset
Approach
Liquidation
Modified net
assets
Income
Approach
Capitalization
Discounted
cash flows
Market
Approach
Guideline
public
companies
M&A
transactions
Income approach
Market approach
16
17
Limitations
Risk of realization, limited historical information (e.g., start-ups), forecasting Income
When is it used?
When comparable companies / precedent transactions
are not available
When the cash flows are expected to change
significantly (i.e. Unprecedented growth)
When there are multiple business streams with different
levels of risk
For start-ups when the company does not have a history
of earnings
Major cornerstones
1. Cash is King
- If it dont jingle it dont count
2. Time value of money
- Opportunity cost
- Reflection of risk
3. Net present value
- Only undertake transactions with positive NPV
18
C$000
EBIT
Add:
Depreciation
EBITDA
Less:
Tax
Capital expenditures
Change in WC
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
2014F
100
2015F
119
2016F
141
2017F
169
2018F
209
2019F
274
20
25
32
38
40
25
120
144
173
207
249
299
(24)
(50)
(1)
(29)
(50)
(1)
(35)
(50)
(1)
(41)
(50)
(2)
(50)
(50)
(2)
(60)
(50)
(2)
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
Can start a DCF with net income, NOPAT, EBT, EBIAT, etc.
19
C$000
EBIT
Add:
Depreciation
EBITDA
Less:
Tax
Capital expenditures
Change in WC
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
2014F
100
2015F
119
2016F
141
2017F
169
2018F
209
2019F
274
20
25
32
38
40
25
120
144
173
207
249
299
(24)
(50)
(1)
(29)
(50)
(1)
(35)
(50)
(1)
(41)
(50)
(2)
(50)
(50)
(2)
(60)
(50)
(2)
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
Add back non-cash expenses and deduct non-cash gains. Remember Cash is King
20
C$000
EBIT
Add:
Depreciation
EBITDA
Less:
Tax
Capital expenditures
Change in WC
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
2014F
100
2015F
119
2016F
141
2017F
169
2018F
209
2019F
274
20
25
32
38
40
25
120
144
173
207
249
299
(24)
(50)
(1)
(29)
(50)
(1)
(35)
(50)
(1)
(41)
(50)
(2)
(50)
(50)
(2)
(60)
(50)
(2)
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
DCF is used to estimate how much the company is worth which includes impact of taxation
21
C$000
EBIT
Add:
Depreciation
EBITDA
Less:
Tax
Capital expenditures
Change in WC
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
2014F
100
2015F
119
2016F
141
2017F
169
2018F
209
2019F
274
20
25
32
38
40
25
120
144
173
207
249
299
(24)
(50)
(1)
(29)
(50)
(1)
(35)
(50)
(1)
(41)
(50)
(2)
(50)
(50)
(2)
(60)
(50)
(2)
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
Capital expenditure is a cash outflow required to support continued growth and working capital is the
cash required for day to day operations
22
C$000
EBIT
Add:
Depreciation
EBITDA
Less:
Tax
Capital expenditures
Change in WC
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
2014F
100
2015F
119
2016F
141
2017F
169
2018F
209
2019F
274
20
25
32
38
40
25
120
144
173
207
249
299
(24)
(50)
(1)
(29)
(50)
(1)
(35)
(50)
(1)
(41)
(50)
(2)
(50)
(50)
(2)
(60)
(50)
(2)
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
24
Ke = rf + (rm rf)
Regression analysis
Pre-calculated data sources
Comparable companies
25
Ke = rf + (rm rf)
26
27
Kd = * (1 t)
Sources:
28
Assumptions:
Kd = 7.0%
Tax rate = 20.0%
29
Cost of Debt
30
C$000
EBIT
Add:
Depreciation
EBITDA
Less:
Tax
Capital expenditures
Change in WC
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
0.5
2014F
100
1.5
2015F
119
2.5
2016F
141
3.5
2017F
169
4.5
2018F
209
5.5
2019F
274
20
25
32
38
40
25
120
144
173
207
249
299
(24)
(50)
(1)
(29)
(50)
(1)
(35)
(50)
(1)
(41)
(50)
(2)
(50)
(50)
(2)
(60)
(50)
(2)
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
140%
Factors to consider:
100%
Cyclicality
120%
80%
Representative year
Depreciation and CapEx
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
Utilities
Tobacco
Sporting Goods
32
High Tech
Terminal Value
C$000
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
0.5
2014F
1.5
2015F
2.5
2016F
3.5
2017F
4.5
2018F
5.5
2019F
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
1. Take the final year of cash flow and multiply by (1+ growth rate)
Free cash flow: 186 * (1+0.03) = 111
2. Divide the free cash flow by the (discount rate - growth rate)
Capitalized cash flow: 111/ (0.095-0.03) = 1,713
3. Discount the terminal value to present using the discount factor in the final year
Terminal value: 1,713*0.58 = 994
33
C$000
EBIT
Add:
Depreciation
EBITDA
Less:
Tax
Capital expenditures
Change in WC
FCFF
Discount factor
PV FCFF
Sum of FCFF
Terminal value
Enterprise value
0.5
2014F
100
1.5
2015F
119
2.5
2016F
141
3.5
2017F
169
4.5
2018F
209
5.5
2019F
274
20
25
32
38
40
25
120
144
173
207
249
299
(24)
(50)
(1)
(29)
(50)
(1)
(35)
(50)
(1)
(41)
(50)
(2)
(50)
(50)
(2)
(60)
(50)
(2)
45
64
87
114
147
186
0.91
41
441
994
0.83
53
0.76
66
0.70
79
0.64
93
0.58
108
1,435
Equity value: Enterprise value less net debt plus redundant assets
34
Common Assumptions
Sources
Growth
Rates
Revenue
Working Capital
Expenses
Tax
Rates
Margins
Gross margin
EBITDA margin
Analyst
Reports
Terminal
Value
Timing
Terminal growth rate
Management
35
Historical
Averages
Management
Estimate future
working capital and
capital expenditure
Compare results
Cash is King
Sensitivity analysis
36
37
Sale transactions
Limitations
Difficult to identify pure-play comparable companies or transactions
Market inefficiencies
Approach is often used as a quick methodology, and can be misapplied
38
Methodology
Advantages
Disadvantages
Price that the market is willing to pay for a dollar of cash flows or assets for companies
that have similar growth prospects or risk profiles
Include control premium and synergy assumptions, which are not public knowledge
and are often transaction-specific
Precedent transaction valuations are easily influenced by temporary market
conditions
39
Multiple
Price /
Earnings
Price /
Cash Flow
Enterprise
Value /
EBITDA
40
Attributes
Well known and widely used, easy to understand
Forward looking (forecasted earnings)
Hard to compare companies with low or negative earnings,
or multiple-sector corporations
Distorted by capital structure
Selection of proper comparables is key
Examples
Large caps
Blue chip stocks
Older, steady earnings companies
Multiple
41
Attributes
Examples
Price /
Net Asset
Value
Enterprise
Value /
Reserves
Mining companies
Oil & Gas companies
Enterprise
Value /
Revenue
Technology companies
Restaurants
Mining companies
Large asset bases
Ticker
Flagship Asset
Coal Type
Stage
Location
Market Cap
EV
Total
Resources
EV / Total
Resources
NAV*
(C$M)
(C$M)
(Mt)
(C$/t)
(C$M)
P / NAV
NYSE:RNO
Appalachia
Metallurgical
Production
117
192
356
0.54
n/a
n/a
TSX:SGQ
Mongolia
Production
109
211
912
0.23
585
0.19x
ASX:COK
Australia
Thermal
Production
63
104
1,892
0.06
n/a
n/a
Xinergy Ltd.
TSX:XRG
US
Thermal
Production
20
249
72
3.45
n/a
n/a
TSXV:PAK
Colombia
Thermal
Production
17
46
88
0.52
n/a
n/a
AIM:ATC
US
Metallurgical
Production
12
25
14.27
n/a
n/a
TSX:BUF
South Africa
Production
28
83
0.34
57
0.13x
Average
2.77
0.16x
1.02
n/a
Developers
Atrum Coal NL
ASX:ATU
Canada
Metallurgical
Feasibility
218
208
1,567
0.13
n/a
n/a
ASX:REY
Australia
Thermal
DFS completed
56
53
457
0.12
n/a
n/a
ASX:RES
South Africa
Development
72
39
3,031
0.01
n/a
n/a
TSX:FT
Canada
Metallurgical
Development
36
35
472
0.07
88
0.41x
ASX:CPL
Canada
Thermal
Development
15
86
756
0.11
1,593
0.01x
ASX:JAL
Canada
PFS completed
25
22
99
0.23
96
0.26x
ASX:SMR
Belview
Development
19
920
0.00
n/a
n/a
TSXV:GXS
Canada
Thermal
PEA completed
14
13
150
0.09
n/a
n/a
TSX:PCY
Mongolia
Thermal
Production
19
20
3,754
0.01
n/a
n/a
TSXV:MOX
Canada
PFS completed
11
10
120
0.08
n/a
n/a
TSXV:CAD
397
0.01
143
0.05x
TSX:CDU
Canada
Metallurgical
PFS completed
11
525
0.02
37
0.17x
EastCoal Inc.
TSXV:ECX.H
Ukraine
Thermal
Development
96
0.07
n/a
n/a
TSXV:CEC
Canada
PFS completed
131
0.01
n/a
n/a
Average
0.07
0.18x
0.06
0.16x
42
Precedent transactions
Theory and methodology
Looking at historical prices for completed M&A transactions involving similar companies
to get a range of valuation multiples
Methodology
Basis for a precedent transaction analysis is that a rational investor should place a
similar value on similar assets
Why do precedent multiples tend to be higher than comparable company multiples?
Advantages
Disadvantages
Include control premium and synergy assumptions, which are not public knowledge
and are often transaction-specific
Precedent transaction valuations are easily influenced by temporary market conditions
43