Test SA AP Statistics Name: Part I: Multiple Choiee. Civele she leer corresponding to the best answer 1, The probability that you will be ticketed for illegel parking on campus is about 1/3. During the last nine days, you have illegally parked every day and have NOT been ticketed (you lucky person!). Today, on the 10th day, you again decide to park illegally. Assuming the ‘outcomes are independent from day to day, the probability that you will be caught is 1 vply way 1 9 fa) 3 () (4) © 3 ) @ 70 ©) 10 2. A friend has placed a large number of plastic disks in a hat and invited you to select one at random, He informs you that they have numbers on them, and that one of the following is the probability model for the number on the disk you have chosen. Which one is it? (@) [No. [Prob.] () [No. [Prob.] (¢) [No. [Prob.] (a) [ No. [Prob] (e) [No | Prob. 1 [14 rt 1 I i | io ria 2 [14 2 | 2 2 [2 2 [0 2 [0 3 [14 3 [3 3 | 0 3 [35 3 [= 4 (4 a4 4 [3 4 |05 4 | 0 3 | 14 5 [3 5 [4 5 | 26 st Use the following for questions 3 The two-way table below gives information on seniors and juniors at a high schoo! and by which means they typically get to school Cor Bus Walk Totals Juniors 146 [106 | 48 | 300 Seniors 146 [64 [740] 250 Totals 292 170 88 += 550 3. You select one student from this group at random. What typically takes a bus to school? (a) 0.256 (b) 0.309 (c) 0.353 (d) 0.455 (e) 0.604 the probability that this student 4, You select one student from this group at random. If the student says he is a junior, what is the probability that he walks to school? (a) 0.073 (b) 0.160 (©) 0.455 (@ 0.600 (©) 0.833 5. You select one student from this group al random. Which of the following statement is true about the events “Typically walks to schoo!” and “Junior?” (@) The events are mutually exclusive and independent. (b) The events are not mutually exclusive but they are independent. (c) The events are mutually exclusive, but they are not independent. (@) The events are not mutually exclusive, nor are they independent. (©) The events are independent, but we do not have enough information to determine if they are mutually exclusive. © 2011 BFW Publishers ‘The Practice of Statistics, 4/e- Chapter 5 256. Event A occurs with probability 0.2. Event B occurs with probability 0.8. If A and B are disjoint (mutually exclusive), then (a) P(A or B)= 1.0. (b) P(A and B) = 0.16, (©) P(A and B) = 1.0. (d) P(A or B)= 0.16. (e) both (a) and (b) are true. 7. IF P(A) = 0.24 and P(B) = 0.52 and A and B are independent, what is P(A or B)? (a) 0.1248 (b) 0.28 (6) 0.6352 (d) 0.76 (c) The answer cannot be determined from the information given 8. People with type O-negative blood are universal donors. That is, any patient can receive a transfusion of O-negative blood. Only 7.2% of the American population has O-negative blood. If 10 people appear at random to give blood, what is the probability that at least 1 of them is a universal donor? (a) 0 (b) 0.280 (©) 0.526 (d) 0.720 @! 9. Of people who died in the United States in a recent year, 86% were white, 12% were black, and 2% were Asian. (We will ignore the small number of deaths among other races.) Diabetes caused 2.8% of deaths among whites, 4.4% among blacks, and 3.5% among Asians. ‘The probability that a randomly chosen death was due to diabetes is about (a) 0.96, (b) 0.107. (c) 0.042 (a) 0.038 (e) 0.030, 10. In your top dresser drawer are 6 blue socks and 10 grey socks, unpaired and mixed up. One dark moming you pull two socks from the drawer (without replacement, of course!). What is the probability that the two socks match? (a) 0.075 (b} 0.375 (©) 0.450 (@) 0.500 (©) 0.550 226 ‘The Practice of Statistics, /e- Chapter 5 © 2011 BEW PublishersPart 2: Free Response ( Show all your work. Indicate clearly the methods you use, because you will be graded on the correciness of your methods as well as on the accuracy and completeness of your results and explanations, 11. Many fire stations handle emergency calls for medical assistance as well as those requesting firefighting equipment, A particular station says that the probability that an incoming call for medical assistance is 0.81. This can be expressed as P(call is for medical assistance) = 0.81, Assume each call is independent of other calls. (a) Describe what the Law of Large Numbers says in the context of this probability. (b) What is the probability that none of the next four calls are for medical assistance? (c) You want to estimate the probability that exactly three of the next four calls are for medical assistance. Describe the design of a simulation to estimate this probability. Explain clearly how you will use the partial table of random digits below to carry out your simulation. © 2011 BFW Publishers ‘The Practice of Statistics, 4/e- Chapter S 2722k (d) Carry out 5 trials of your simulation. Mark on or above each line of the table so that someone can clearly follow your method 477 178 179 180 181 70348 24005 95063 11532 59618 72871 5214 55810 73186 03914 63419 26224 10470 92541 05208 57363 39078 ogo29 06915 84088 29685 80798 30025 72954 20426 43090 15220 29734 10167 39004 ‘The Practice of Statistics, c= Chapter $ 18763 31714 43186 00976 61181 72090 12142 26492 94582 87317 0.2011 BFW Fublishers12. Meadowbrook School surveys the families of its students and determines the following: if a family is chosen at random, the probability that they own a dog is 0.38, the probability they own a cat is 0.23, and the probability they own both a dog and a cat is 0.12 (a) Let D = randomly-chosen family owns a dog, and C = randomly-chosen family owns a cat. Sketch a Venn diagram or two-way table that summarizes the probabilities above. (b) Find cach of the following. ‘The probability that a randomly-selected family owns a dog or # cat ii, The probability that a randomly-selected family owns a dog or doesn’t own a cat, ii, The probability that a randomly-selected family doesn’t own a dog and doesn’t own a cat. 13. Suppose your schoo! is in the midst of a flu epidemic. The probability that a randomly- selected student has the flu is 0.35, and the probability that a student who has the flu also has a high fever is 0.90. But there are ather illnesses making the rounds, and the probability that a student who doesn’t have the flu does have a high fever (as a result of some other ailment) is 0.12. Suppose a student walks into the nurse’s office with a high fever. What is the probability that she has the flu? © 2011 BFW Publishers ‘The Practice of Statistics, 4e- Chapter $ 291. a The probability remains 1/3 every day regardless of previous days" events, 2. © This is the only option that sums to 1 and has all probabilities between and 1, inclusive. 170 3. b P(bus) =—— = 0.309 (8) = 59 4b P (wal | junior) = = =0 16 5. b Independent because P(walks) = (walks| junior) = 0.16, ‘not mutually exclusive because P(Walks and Junior) 4 0 6. a Correct by general addition rule, {(b) is not correct since the events are disjoint} 7. ¢ P(A or B)=0.24 + 0.52 ~ (0.24)(0.52) = 0.6352 8. © P(at least one type O-neg)=I ~ P(no type O-neg in 10 people) 9. @ P(diabetes’ 1=(.9280)'° 0.86)(0.028) + (0.12)(0.044) + (0.02)(0.035) = 0.030 10.8 BOB) RGAG)= £2 2.2 16 15 16 15 Part 2 11. (a) As the number of calls becomes larger and larger, the proportion of calls for medical assistance will get closer and closer to 0.81. (b) P(four non-medical assitance calls) = (0.19)' = 0.0013. (c) Assign the digits 0) through 81 to calls for medical assistance and 82 through 00 to other calls. Choose four two-digit numbers from the random digits table and determine how many of the four ealls are for medical assistance. Do this may times. The proportion of those trials that result in three calls for medical assistance is the probability estimate. (d) Let M = medical call and O = other call. Starting on line 177, the first five trials are: MMOM = 3 calls; MMMO = 3 calls; MMMM = 4 calls; MMOM = 3 calls; MMMM = 4 calls. Probability estimate is 3/5 = 0.60. 12, (a) Venn diagram and two-way table below. (b) i) P(DUC)=0.49. ii) P(DUCT)=0.89 iv.) P(DEAC*)=0.51 13. P(PhufFever) = PUP 0 Fever) ___(0.35)(05)_ 809 P(Fever) (0.35) (0.9) +(0.65)(0.12) cat yon Dog Y foazfori "8 N [026/051 242 “The Practice of Statisties, /e- Chapter 5 (© 2011 BFW Publishers,Part 2: Free Response Show all your work, Indicate clearly the methods you use, because you will be graded on the correcmess of your methodls as well as on the accuracy and completeness of your results and explanations. 11. Many fire stations handle emergency calls for medical assistance as well as those requesting firefighting equipment. A particular station says that the probability that an incomming call is for medical assistance is 0.81. This can be expressed as P(call is for medical assistance) = 0.81. Assume each call is independent of other calls, (a) Describe what the Law of Large Numbers says in the context of this probability Le and neared the Bed. will at ell oan fe 0.001% (c) You want to estimate the probability that exactly three of the next four calls are for medical assistance. Describe the design of a simulation to estimate this probability. Explain clearly how you will use the partial table of random digits below to carry out your simulation. ee rerrbiieet omaclans? aaron 01> 81 Aer a lhe for rersblnce. aatyn pe- oo to oti calla On ke dD us 2 per a bene on™ re A on Pot by yt pond AaTinrcunt hoi nec gre i neta (© 2011 BFW Publishers ‘The Practice of Statistics, 4e- Chapter 5 27(d) Carry out 5 tials of your simulation, Mark on or above each fine of the table so that someone can clearly follow your method. 177 70348 72871 63419 57363 29685 43090 18763 31714 178 24005 52114 26224 39078 80798 15220 43186 00976 179 85063 55810 10470 08029 30025 29734 61181 72090 180 11532 73186 92541 06915 72954 10167 12142 26492 181 59618 03914 05208 84088 20426 39004 84582 87317 yet yw 34 67 26 3 h yu ¥ ¥ a oe Ae 3 2 x *¥ y oe ett ne) Be “s gr orl > Seer ee Sree x 30 2 2 ef ¥ K eo 7 a5 eee tees v é % x m8 ‘The Practice of Statistics, 4e- Chapter 5 © 2011 BFW Publishers12. Meadowbrook School surveys the families of its students and determines the following: if'a family is chosen at random, the probability that they own a dog is 0.38, the probability they own a cat is 0.23, and the probability they own both a dog and a cat is 0.12 (a) Let D = randomly-chosen family owns a dog, and C = randomly-chosen fa cat. Sketch a Venn diagram or two-way table that summarizes the probabilities above. elected family owns a dog or a cat. - Ou ii. The probability that a randomly-selected family owns a dog or doesn’t own a cat. el euch) = obs D051 i 3) Be ii, ‘The probability that a randomly-selected family doesn't own a dog and doesn’t own a cat. ai \ rpipa ct) *@sD 13. Suppose your schoo! is in the midst of a lu epidemic. The probability that a randomly- seleoted student has the flu is 0.35, and the probability that a student who has the flu also has a high fever is 0.90. But there are other illnesses making the rounds, and the probability that a student who doesn’t have the flu does have a high fever (as a result of some other ailment) is 0.12. Suppose a student walks into the nurse's office with a high fever. What is the probability that she has the flu? at Bes Mh fever a 2 BIS “hy 7 “343 ce iz 3 ne high Fever > 9 gol ‘lo ~~ ngh feve™ ~~ . ore ee es cake paar Loved © 2011 BFW Publishers ‘The Practice of Statisties,4/e-Chapter 5 29