Nikhil Goyal

Humanities Health and Development Report

15/10/13

YEAR 11

Development and Health

Report
Economic condition and Life expectancy
Nikhil GOYAL
10/15/2013

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Nikhil Goyal

Humanities Health and Development Report

Contents

Table of Contents.Page 1
Introduction. Page 2
Hypothesis.Page 2
MethodologyPage 2-3
Data Analysis.Page 3-6
Evaluation of Data......Page 6-7
Conclusion..Page 7
Appendix and Footnotes..Page 7-8

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Nikhil Goyal

Humanities Health and Development Report

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Health and development Report 2013

Research question:
Does a countrys GNI per capita affect its citizens Life expectancy?
Introduction:
Disparity. What does this mean? According to the Oxford dictionary, it is defined as a great
difference. The world we live in today is riddled with disparity. One rather disconcerting example is
the disparity in Global development. The World Bank defines development as reaching an
acceptable standard of living for all by improving economic and social conditions. In modern times
one of the prominent measures of development is the United Nations recognized, Human
development report. This report was introduced in 1990 by eminent Indian economist Amartya Sen
and Pakistani economist Mahbub-al-Huq, and has been published annually since. A major
component of this report, the Human Development Index (HDI) is one that is especially useful to
economists. The human development index is a composite indicator of development as it is an
average of countrys health, education and economy, producing a value from zero to one, with one
being the most developed.
Obviously, not every country is equally developed. The key to human development lies in the
improvement of social and economic conditions. More specifically, one needs to look employment,
income and access to social services. It is directly linked with health as an impoverished citizen may
not be able to afford the best health care and social stigma regarding diseases can have a negative
effect on the mental health of the individual. For this report I will be looking at two indicators, one
from the human development index and one healthcare. I will then compare the two, and their
impact on the world. The two indicators I have chosen are a countrys economic condition (GNI
adjusted to purchasing power parity In USD) and the life expectancy in years. I chose these indicators
because I feel it would be interesting to see how a countrys economic development translates into
the quality of care for their citizens. Life expectancy is a specifically relevant indicator as it takes into
account the quality of healthcare and nutrition right from a young age.
Hypothesis:
I expect a strong positive correlation in between the economic condition of a country and their life
expectancy. This is because if a country is doing well economically; they will have the resources to
feed their children well, keeping them well-nourished, and follow that through adulthood with good
maternal health and Oncology departments. Towards the end of a citizens life, they will be able to
deal with problems such as heart diseases, a problem of developed countries. In conclusion, if a
countrys economy is doing well, they are likely to have a higher budget for health care and provide
a good quality of healthcare for free (such as the National Health Service in the United Kingdom).
Methodology:
For this project I will select the data on random.org, a resource which puts various lists in a random
order. I will plug a list of all the countries on the world from Wikipedia into the website and select
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the first 50 countries that appear on the processed list. This random selection of countries will
ensure that there is not bias in my choice. In this report I want as diverse a data set as possible so by
selecting countries at random I will be able to achieve this in the best way. If I end up with a
country(s) with no data, I will repeat these steps until I end up with 50 countries with adequate data.
I will then draw up the data on excel, one column with the GDP per capita adjusted to PPP, and the
other with the life expectancy. This data will be procured from Gapmider.com, an online tool
through which one can make a map and graph of various humanitarian data. This is a reliable source
as it was started by economist Dr. Hans Rosling. After ticking variables and countries I got earlier
from the random.org, I should get a map which has circles on my countries. The size of the circle will
depend on the GNI per capita of the country and the color (from yellow to red) will depend on the
life expectancy of the said country. This is an excellent way to represent the data as not only gives a
regional understanding of how well a country fares but also a global comparison.
Data Analysis
Graph representing the data (Source: The World Bank via Gapminder)
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
R = 0.453

30000

Linear (Series1)

20000
10000
0
-10000

20

40

60

80

100

-20000

Data represented in a graph- This shows a very diverse range of life expectancy values in countries
with GNIs below USD10000. As the country gets wealthier, the range of life expectancy values gets
narrower. This is probably due to obvious reasons, as people can only live for so many years, no
matter how good the health care gets.

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10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000

Series1

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0

20

40

60

80

This is an enlargement of the above graph showing countries with a GNI per capita below USD10000.
The country with the highest life expectancy from this sample set is China (see appendix), though it
does not have the highest GNI per capita. That is probably due to the recent economic boom in
China, where the job market grew and the middle class grew. This new middle class now had money
to afford private health care pushing the overall life expectancy higher. At the same time, it is
important to note that poor people are still not able to afford the best healthcare. The lowest life
expectancy value is of Lesotho, which has an unemployment rate of 39.3% (Sourcetradingeconomics.com) in addition to corruption which plagues a lot of Africa.

Pearsons correlation:
As seen in the top graph, the r-squared value between the two variables is 0.453. This would give a
Pearsons correlation value of (defined as r) of
(value found by taking the square roots of
the r-squared value provided by Microsoft excel). Looking at the topmost graph , the general trend
is that change in life expectancy is directly proportional to the change in GNI per capita (adjusted to
Purchasing Power Parity terms) , the trend is positive. Since the general trend is positive, a negative
value will not make sense, so the Pearsons correlation value will be
. This value is defined as
a moderate correlation (range- 0.5-0.75).
As predicted, there is a correlation between the GNI per capita of a country and the life expectancy
of their citizens. However, I expected a strong correlation (defined with a Pearsons correlation
between 0.75 and 1). I this is an interesting trend, considering my prediction was that a country with
a higher Gross National Income will have the resources to take good care of its citizens.
General trends and comments observed from all countries in the sample size:

1. The life expectancy of an individual can only go so high for biological reasons, whereas there
is no such limitation on a GNI of a country. For example, the life expectancy of Qatar is
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similar to that of the United Kingdom, but Qatars GNI is 102% higher. However it is
important to note that Qatar is a very small country with a lot of natural resources but a fatrich diet, whereas the United Kingdom has a lot of migrant workers who earn little. One
reason for the UK having such as high life expectancy could be because they have the
National Health Service Scheme, where the government pays for all medical needs of a
taxpaying resident. In conclusion, government policies may allow for countries with
relatively lower GNIs to have a higher life expectancy.
2. A lot of developing countries have a growing GNI, such as India and China but the disparity in
the quality of healthcare for the poor and the rich is vast. While this is changing, countries
take time in translating the effects of a growing economy into the health of their citizens.
3. African countries particularly receive a lot of aid, so a lot of their healthcare budget comes
from foreign aid. This will improve the life expectancy of their citizens but wont cause an
increase in their GNI.
Data represented on a map:

Trends observed from the above map:

Europe- Most countries have a relatively high GNI and life expectancy. The Eurozone gives economic
security to the citizens and their governments which allows for free-trade and investment in foreign
countries which increases the GNI. Developed health care systems allow for good quality healthcare
for all.

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North America- Similar conditions to the Europe, both in terms of healthcare and Government
policies. A difference, though, is that healthcare is not complimentary in the United States and thus
needs to be paid for by the individual. However emergency procedures are performed anyway so
less people would be dying from problems such as heart disease, the number one killer in the world
(Source-The World Health Organisation).
Asia- In comparison to western countries, Asia has relatively lower life expectancies and GNIs per
capita. This however, is changing with the current economic boom (India and China Specifically) and
newer government policies are all set to change this. Malaysia and Indonesia, which are middle
income countries, have both better life expectancy and Gross National Incomes.
Africa- The lowest life expectancy and Gross National Income per capita in the world, particularly in
Sub-Saharan Africa. This region of the world has rampant corruption and bad governance that is not
very effective in improving the lives of their citizens. On the better side however, a lot of
international developmental aid is focused in this region which provides at least some of the daily
needs required for a healthy lifestyle.
There is not enough data in my sample to comment on Australia and South America.
Evaluation of Data:
Measures taken to ensure good data:
1. All data taken is from the same ultimate source and from the same year
2. Data taken from trusted sources
3. Taking a countrys gross national income (GNI) is more relevant when comparing it to life
expectancy because it also takes into account the said countrys income from overseas
sources. For example, Tata, an Indian automobile company owns Jaguar Land Rover (JLR).
Income from this subsidiary will contribute to Indias GNI but not gross domestic product
(GDP). Income from foreign sources is still helpful in building an economy.
While I made the best effort to get the best data possible, there are still some limitations to the
report. These include:
1. Gapminder uses data from different sources for its maps, graphs and spreadsheets. While
these are all reliable sources (see appendix for full list), there is still a higher chance of error.
If they were all from the same source, they were likely to be collected at the same time as
well (as part of a report or investigation). This consistency would have yielded the best data.
2. The data is from 2008. While this is still relatively recent, conversion rates to the US dollar
keep changing, and may not be as relevant in 2013. For example since 2008, the Indian
Rupee (INR) has depreciated 36% against the USD (source-xe.com), which would
automatically show an increase in GNI weather or not there is actually a change in the
countrys economy as such.
3. Life expectancy is only one of the indicators that should be taken into account when
assessing a countrys health system. Indicators reflecting maternal mortality and HIV are also
useful amongst others.
Suggested improvements:
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1. In addition to random selection of countries, one can also pick a few regional
representatives if they do not automatically appear in the list. This will further diversify the
sample.
2. Check the data reliability of the country. A lot of countries are known for manipulating data,
so one must be judicious when looking them up.
3. Focus the report more on Low Income and Middle Income Countries (LICs and MICs) as High
income countries (HICs) do not vary that much in their life expectancy values. A HIC can be
used for comparisons sake though.
Conclusion:
While I compared two basic economic and health indicators, some very interesting data was found.
My research question was answered positively to a certain extent, but there wasnt as strong a
correlation as I expected. If I was to improve upon my research question; I would change it to Does
a Middle or Low Income countrys GNI per capita affect its citizens Life expectancy. This is because I
realize that developing nations vary more in their life expectancy values, and citizens of developed
nations have reasonably similar life expectancies.

Appendix and footnotes:

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Nikhil Goyal

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Gapminder data sources:

Life expectancy

The data for GNI per capita came from one source, the World Bank.

Bibliography:

Works Cited
"China." Overview. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"Data in Gapminder World." Gapminder. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"Lesotho Unemployment Rate." TRADING ECONOMICS. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"Statistics and Monitoring." UNICEF. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"Statistics How To." Statistics How To RSS. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"The Top 10 Causes of Death." WHO. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"Traditional Qatari Cuisine." AngloINFO Qatar. Everything for Expats Living in or Moving to
Qatar. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"True Random Number Service." RANDOM.ORG -. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"XE Currency Charts." XE.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.
"Your Health, Your Choices." NHS Choices -. N.p., n.d. Web. 15 Oct. 2013.

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