Assignment No. 02 Basic ProbabilitymT-330 P&s 1. (a) How many different positive three-digit whole numbers can be formed from the four digits 2, 6, 7, and 9 if any digit can be repeated? (b) How many different positive whole numbers less than 1000 can be formed from 2, 6, 7, 9iif any digit can be repeated? (c) How many numbers in part (b) are less than 680 (i.e. up to 679)? (d) What is the probability that a positive whole number less than 1000, chosen at random from 2, 6, 7,9 and allowing any digit to be repeated, will be less than 680? 2. Answer question 1 again for the case where the digits 2, 6, 7, 9 cannot be repeated. 3. For each of the following, determine the probability of each event: (a) a five appears in the toss of a fair six-sided die. (b) a red jack appears in draw of a single card from a well-shuffled 52-card bridge deck 3. An oil company is bidding for the rights to drill a well in field A and a well in field B. The probability it will drill a well in field A is 40%. If it does, the probability the well will be successful is 45%, The probability it will drill 2 well in field B is 30%. If it does, the probability the well will be successful is 55%. Calculate each of the following probabilities: a) Probability of a successful well in field A. b) Probability of a successful well in field B, ©) Probability of both a successful well in field A and a successful well in field B, d) Probability of at least one successful well in the two fields together) e) 2Probability of no successful well in field A, f) Probability of no successful well in field B, 2) Probability of no successful well in the two fields together (calculate by two methods), h) Probability of exactly one successful well in the two fields together. Show a check involving the probability calculated in part h. 4, In a group of 72 students, 14 take neither English nor chemistry, 42 take English and 38 take chemistry. What is the probability that a student chosen at random from this group takes: a) Both English and chemistry? b) Chemistry but not English? 5. A random sample of 250 students entering the university included 120 females, of whom 20 belonged to a minority group, 65 had averages over 80%, and 10 fit both categories. Among the 250 students, a total of 105 people in the sample had averages over 80%, and a total of 40 belonged to the minority group. Fifteen males in the minority group had averages over 80%. i) How many of those not in the minority group had averages over 80%? ii) Given a person was a male from the minority group, what is the probability he had an average over 80%? iil) What is the probability that a person selected at random was male, did not come from the minority group, and had an average less than 80%? 6. Two hundred students were sampled in the College of Arts and Science. It was found that: 137 take math, 50 take history, 124 take English, 33 take math and history, 29 take 1/5 syed Taugeer Ahmed HashmiAssignment No. 02 Basic ProbabilitymT-330 P&s history and English, 92 take math and English, 18 take math, history and English. Find the probability that a student selected at random out of the 200 takes neither math nor history nor English. 7. Among a group of 60 engineering students, 24 take math and 29 take physics. Also 10 take both physics and statistics, 13 take math and physics, 11 take math and statistics, and 8 take all three subjects, while 7 take none of the three. a) How many students take statistics? b) What is the probability that a student selected at random takes all three, given he takes statistics? 8. Of 65 students, 10 take neither math nor physics, 50 take math, and 40 take physics. ‘What are the fair odds that a student chosen at random from this group of 65 takes (i) both math and physics? (ii) Math but not physics? 9. 16 parts are examined for defects. It is found that 10 are good, 4 have minor defects, and 2 have major defects. Two parts are chosen at random from the 16 without replacement, that is, the first part chosen is not returned to the mix before the second part is chosen. Notice, then, that there will be only 15 possible choices for the second part. a) What is the probability that both are good? b) What is the probability that exactly one part has a major defect? 10. There are two roads between towns A and B. There are three roads between towns B and C. John goes from town A to town C. How many different routes can he travel? 11. Three balls are drawn one after the other from a bag containing 6 red balls, 5 yellow balls and 3 green balls. Whats the probability that all three balls are yellow if: a) The ball is replaced after each draw and the contents are well mixed? b) The ball is not replaced after each draw? 12. When buying a dozen eggs, Mrs. Murphy always inspects 3 eggs for cracks; if one or more of these eggs have a crack, she does not buy the carton. Assuming that each subset of 3 eggs has an equal probability of being selected, what is the probability that Mrs. Murphy will buy a carton which has 5 eggs with cracks? 13. Of 20 light bulbs, 3 are defective. Five bulbs are chosen at random. (a) Use the rules of probability to find the probability that none are defective. (b) What is the probability that at least one is defective? 14. OF flights from Saskatoon to Winnipeg, 89.5% leave on time and arrive on time, 3.5% leave on time and arrive late, 1.5% leaves late and arrive on time, and 5.5% leave late and arrive late. What is the probability that, given a flight leaves on time, it will arrive late? What is the probability that, given a flight leaves late, it will arrive on time? 15. Eight engineering students are studying together. What is the probability that at least ‘two students of this group have the same birthday, not considering the year of birth? syed Taugeer Ahmed HashmiAssignment No. 02 Basic ProbabilitymT-330 P&s Simplify the calculations by assuming that there are 365 days in the year and that all are equally likely to be birthdays. 16. The probabilities of the monthly snowfall exceeding 10 cm at a particular location in the months of December, january, and February are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6, respectively. For a particular winter: a) What is the probability that snowfall will be less than 10 cm in all three of the months of December, January and February? b) What is the probability of receiving at least 10 cm snowfall in at least 2 of the 3 months? ©) Given that the snowfall exceeded 10 cm in each of only two months, what is the probability that the two months were consecutive? 17. In a poker hand consisting of five cards, what is the probability of holding? a) Two aces and two kings? b) Five spades? OAK, Q,J, 10 of the same suit? 18. Three married couples have purchased theatre tickets and are seated in a row consisting of just six seats. If they take their seats in a completely random fashion, what is the probability that a) im and Paula (husband and wife) sit in the two seats on the far left? b} Jim and Paula end up sitting next to one another. 19. Three different machines Ml, M2, and M3 are used to produce similar electronic components. Machines Ml, M2, and M3 produce 20%, 30% and 50% of the components respectively. It is known that the probabilities that the machines produce defective components are 1% for M1, 2% for M2, and 3% for M3. If 2 component is selected randomly from a large batch, and that component is defective, find the probability that it was produced: (a) by M2, and (b) by M3. 20. A flood forecaster issues a flood warning under two conditions only: (i) if fall rainfall exceeds 10 cm and winter snowfall is between 15 and 20 cm, or (i) if winter snowfall exceeds 20 cm regardless of fall rainfall. The probability of fall rainfall exceeding 10 cm is 0.10, while the probabilities of winter snowfall exceeding 15 and 20 cm are 0.15 and 0.05 respectively. a) What is the probability that he will issue a warning any given spring? b) Given that he issues a warning, what is the probability that fall rainfall was greater than 10cm? 21. A certain company has two car assembly plants, A and B. Plant A produces twice as many cars as plant B. Plant A uses engines and transmissions from a subsidiary plant which produces 10% defective engines and 2% defective transmissions. Plant B uses engines and transmissions from another source where 8% of the engines and 4% of the transmissions are defective. Car transmissions and engines at each plant are installed independently. a) What is the probability that a car chosen at random will have a good engine? b) What is the probability that a car from plant A has a defective engine, or a defective syed Taugeer Ahmed HashmiAssignment No. 02 Basic ProbabilitymT-330 P&s transmission, or both? ©) What is the probability that a car which has a good transmission and a defective engine was assembled at plant 8? 22. In a small isolated town in Northern Saskatchewan, 90% of the Cola consumed by the townspeople is purchased from the General Store, while the rest is purchased from ather vendors. Records show 60% of all the bottles sold are returned. According to a special study, a bottle purchased at the General Store is four times as likely to be returned as a bottle purchased elsewhere. a) Calculate the probability that a person buying a bottle of Cola from the General Stare will return the empty bottle. b) If a Cola bottle is found lying in the street, what is the probability that it was not purchased at the General Store? 23. Three road construction firms, X, Y and Z, bid for a certain contract. From past experience, it is estimated that the probabllity that x will be awarded the contract is 0.40, while for Y and Z the probabilities are 0.35 and 0.25. If X does receive the contract, the probability that the work will be satisfactorily completed on time is 0.75. For ¥ and Z these probabilities are 0.80 and 0.70. a) What is the probability that Y will be awarded the contract and complete the work satisfactorily? ) What is the probability that the work will be completed satisfactorily? ©) It turns out that the work was done satisfactorily. What is the probability that Y was awarded the contract? 24, Two service stations compete with one another. The odds are 3 to 1 that a motorist will go to station A rather than station B. Given that a motorist goes to station B, the probability that he will be asked whether he wants his oil checked is 0.76. A survey indicates that of the motorists who are asked whether they want the oil checked, 79% went to station A. Given that a motorist goes to station A. what is the probability that he will be asked whether he wants his oil checked? 25. A machining process produces 98.6% good components. The rest are defective. Each component passes through a pneumatic gauging system. 96% of the defective components are rejected by the gauging system, but 5% of the good components are rejected also. All components rejected by the gauging system pass through a tester. The tester accepts 98% of the good components and 12% of the defective components which reach it. The components which are accepted by the tester go a second time through the gauging system, which now accepts 92% of the good components and 6% of the defective components which pass through it. The total reject stream consists of components rejected by the tester and components rejected by the second pass through the gauging system. The total accepted stream consists of components accepted by the gauging system in either pass. a) What percentage of all the components is rejected? b) What percentage of the total reject stream was accepted by the tester? ©) What percentage of the total reject stream is not defective? syed Taugeer Ahmed HashmiAssignment No. 02 Basic ProbabilitymT-330 P&s Answers: Qu: Q8: Qu18: a) 64 i 73 a) 1/15 b) 84 ii,__ 313 b) 1/3 48 Q.9: Q.19: d) 4/7 a) 3/8 a) 6/23 Q2: b)_7/30 b)_ 15/23 a) 24 Q.10: Q.20: b) 40 6 a) 0.065 26 Qt: b)_0.2307 d) 13/20 a) 0.0456 Q.21: b) 0.0275 a) 0.907 Q.12: b) 0.118 Q3: 0.198 c) 0.282 a) 0.18 Q.13: Q.22: b) 0.165 a) 91/228 a) 0.6488 c) 0.0297 b) 137/228 b) 0.21 d) 0.3153 Q.14: e) 0.82 a) 0.035/0.93 = f) 0.835 0.0376 Q.23: g) 0.6847 b) 0.015/0.07 = a) 0.28 h) 0.2856 0.2143 b) 0.755 Q4: Q.15: <)_0.371 a) 11/36 0.00021 Q.24: b) 2/9 Q.16: 0.953 QS: a) 0.192 Q.25: i 80 b) 0.344 a) 1.82% ii, 15/20 )_0.757 b) 29.6% ih, sever Q.17: ©) 26.7% Qé a) 0.00051 0.125 b) 0.00049 Q?: <) 0.000394 a) 26 b) 0.308 syed Taugeer Ahm d Hashmi