ch09 Sec1
ch09 Sec1
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Bellringer
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Objectives
Describe how the size and growth rate of the human
population has changed in the last 200 years.
Define four properties that scientists use to predict
population sizes.
Make predictions about population trends based on age
structure.
Describe the four stages of the demographic transition.
Explain why different countries may be at different
stages of the demographic transition.
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Age Structure
Age structure is the classification of members of a
population into groups according to age or the
distribution of members of a population in terms of age
groups and helps demographers make predictions.
Countries that have high rates of growth usually have
more young people than older people.
In contrast, countries that have slow growth or no growth
usually have an even distribution of ages in the
population.
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Age Structure
Age structure can be graphed in a population pyramid, a
type of double sided bar graph.
The figure on the following slide shows typical age
structures for countries that have different rates of
growth.
Age-Structure Diagrams
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Survivorship
Survivorship is the percentage of newborn individuals in
a population that can be expected to survive to a given
age.
It is used as another way to predict population trends.
To predict survivorship, demographers study a group of
people born at the same time and notes when each
member of the group dies.
Survivorship
The results of these
studies are then plotted on
a graph and might look like
one of the types of
survivorship graphs below.
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Survivorship
Wealthy developed countries such as Japan and
Germany currently have a Type I survivorship curve
because most people live to be very old.
Type II populations have a similar death rate at all ages.
Type III survivorship is the pattern in very poor human
populations in which many children die.
Both Type I and Type III may result in populations that
remain the same size or grow slowly.
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Fertility Rates
A fertility rate is the number of births (usually per year)
per 1,000 women of childbearing age (usually 15 to 44).
Replacement level is the average number of children
each parent must have in order to replace themselves.
This number is slightly more than 2 because not all
children born will survive and reproduce.
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Fertility Rates
A graph of historical fertility rates for the United States is
shown on the next slide.
In 1972, the total fertility dropped below replacement
level for the first time in US History.
Fertility rates remained below replacement level for most
of the 1990s, but recently has been growing partly
because the children of the baby boom grew up and had
children.
Fertility Rates
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Migration
Migration in general, is any movement of individuals or
populations from one location to another.
Movement into an area is immigration and movement out
of an area is emigration.
The populations of many developed countries might be
decreasing if not for immigration.
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Migration
Migration between and within countries is a significant
part of population change.
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Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is the average length of time that an
individual is expected to live.
Life expectancy is most affected by infant mortality, the
death rate of infants less than a year old.
Expensive medical care is not needed to prevent infant
deaths. Infant health is more affected by the parents
access to education, food, fuel, and clean water.
Life Expectancy
The graph shows that
average life expectancy
worldwide has increased
to more than 67 years old.
But, new threats, such as
tuberculosis and AIDS are
arising as populations
become denser.
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Math Practice
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