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GDP Data

This document contains the results of regression analyses performed on GDP and its components (agriculture, industry, services) in India from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The regressions showed very high R-squared values, indicating a strong linear relationship between the log of each economic variable and time trend. The coefficients indicate annual growth rates of approximately 7.7% for GDP, 3.9% for agriculture, 7.1% for industry, and 9.2% for services over the period analyzed.

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Anubhav Bigamal
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94 views11 pages

GDP Data

This document contains the results of regression analyses performed on GDP and its components (agriculture, industry, services) in India from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The regressions showed very high R-squared values, indicating a strong linear relationship between the log of each economic variable and time trend. The coefficients indicate annual growth rates of approximately 7.7% for GDP, 3.9% for agriculture, 7.1% for industry, and 9.2% for services over the period analyzed.

Uploaded by

Anubhav Bigamal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.994934
R Square 0.989893
Adjusted R 0.98863
Standard Er0.024182
Observatio
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 0.458207 0.458207 783.5576 2.86E-009
8 0.004678 0.000585
9 0.462885

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 14.85888 0.01652 899.4718 2.61E-021 14.82079 14.89698 14.82079
X Variable 0.074525 0.002662 27.9921 2.86E-009 0.068386 0.080665 0.068386

Upper 95.0%
14.89698
0.080665

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.984528
R Square 0.969296
Adjusted R 0.965458
Standard Er 0.02188
Observatio
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
8
9

SS
MS
F
Significance F
0.12091 0.12091 252.5507 2.46E-007
0.00383 0.000479
0.12474

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 13.04686 0.014947 872.8639 3.32E-021 13.01239 13.08133 13.01239
X Variable 0.038283 0.002409 15.89184 2.46E-007 0.032728 0.043838 0.032728

Upper 95.0%
13.08133
0.043838

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.978945
R Square 0.958333
Adjusted R 0.953124
Standard Er0.046095
Observatio
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 0.390944 0.390944 183.9966 8.38E-007
8 0.016998 0.002125
9 0.407942

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 13.61415 0.031489 432.3494 9.17E-019 13.54154 13.68676 13.54154
X Variable 0.068838 0.005075 13.56453 8.38E-007 0.057136 0.080541 0.057136

Upper 95.0%
13.68676
0.080541

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.996664
R Square 0.993339
Adjusted R 0.992506
Standard Er0.023129
Observatio
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 0.638188 0.638188 1192.984 5.40E-010
8 0.00428 0.000535
9 0.642468

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 14.20805
0.0158 899.2368 2.62E-021 14.17162 14.24449 14.17162
X Variable 0.087952 0.002546 34.53961 5.40E-010 0.08208 0.093824 0.08208

Upper 95.0%
14.24449
0.093824

Actual Value at Constant 2004-05 Prices (in Rs. Crore)

Financial
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14

Gross
Domestic
Product
2,971,464
3,253,073
3,564,364
3,896,636
4,158,676
4,516,071
4,918,533
5,247,530
5,482,111
5,741,791

Agriculture

Industry

476,634
502,996
523,745
556,956
555,442
557,715
610,905
643,543
649,424
681,412

829,783
910,413
1,021,204
1,119,995
1,169,736
1,276,919
1,373,339
1,480,657
1,494,921
1,500,225

Services
1,576,255
1,748,173
1,923,970
2,121,561
2,333,251
2,578,165
2,827,380
3,013,041
3,222,680
3,441,017

log GDP
14.90457
14.99511
15.0865
15.17562
15.24071
15.32315
15.40852
15.47327
15.517
15.56328

Log
Agriculture
13.0745
13.12834
13.16876
13.23024
13.22752
13.2316
13.3227
13.37474
13.38384
13.43192

Log Industry

Log
Services

13.6289195
13.721653622
13.836492881
13.928834779
13.97228864
14.059960703
14.132755559
14.207996466
14.217583921
14.221125655

14.27056
14.37408
14.4699
14.56766
14.66277
14.76259
14.85486
14.91846
14.98572
15.05128

Trend
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Regression Model:

lnY= +(trend) +u

Growth rate

(exp()-1)*100

Beta for GDP


Growth rate

Beta for agri


Growth rate

Beta for Industry


Growth rate
Beta for services
Growth rate

0.07453
7.73723

0.03828
3.9025

0.06884
7.1263
0.08795
9.19361

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