Statistics Assignment Page 1 of 7 Binomial Problems Using Two Methods Binomial Situations and Experiments Which of the following are binomial experiments: A. How many fives would you get on 10 rolls of a fair die? B. How many students will pass a calculus course if 36 are enrolled but the course hasn't started yet? €. You randomly select 100 people from a population of 1,000 and find the blood type for each person. How many in your sample will have Rh-negative blood? D. For each day from December through April, you record whether it snows. The answers are: A and C. A binomial experiment has three defining qualities: 1. There's a known number of trials (the number of chances to succeed or fail). 2. The chance of success is the same for each trial 3. Each trial is independent. In example B, the odds aren't the same for each student. In example D, the odds will be different at different times of the year: it's less likely to snow in April than in December. When we record the number of successful outcomes of a binomial event, we refer to that process as a binomial experiment. In a binomial setting, the variable of interest is discrete: it's counted. The distribution 8(n, p, X) is comprised of the probabilities of getting any X number of successes in n trials of a binomial event with probability p for each trial. Recall that there are two ways to find binomial probabilities: 1. Use the exact binomial method, either by hand or using a calculator. This works well when you're dealing with a relatively small number of trials, but if you have a large n it can get cumbersome. 2. Use the normal approximation to the binomial. This is often easier because you can use Z-scores to find probabilities. As you continue to study inferential statistics, you'll find that the normal approximation is often more convenient than the exact binomial, since it's generally easier to work with 2 scores than binomial calculations. © Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc. All rights reserved. This material is Intended for the exclusive use of registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced or redistributed in any form without the express written permission of Apex Learning Ine.Statistics Assignment Binomial Problems Using Two Methods Exact Binomial vs. Normal Approximation Page 2 of 7 This table summarizes each method and type of distribution: Exact Binomial Normal Approximation When to use When n is small, usually less than | When nis large, and when doing 25 inference Important In sampling situations, your The expected number of successes and Population must be at least 20 times larger than your sample N>20n (This sampling situation is referred to as almost binomial—the trials aren't exactly independent, but p from one trial to the next is close enough to approximate the binomial.) failures must be at least 10 (NOTE: many textbooks say 5). np > 10 n(1 - p)2 10 NOTE: Many textbooks use the letter q in place of (1 ~ p), So you'll see it as ng > 10. How to find Calculator or binomial formula Calculator or normal curve table | probabilities Discrete or Discrete Continuous Because it's a discrete distribution, you can directly find probabilities for exact numbers of outcomes (such as P(X = 2)). When finding ranges of outcomes, it makes a difference whether the endpoints are included; that is, whether it's X < 3 or X < 3. Because It's a continuous distribution, if you want to find a probability for an exact number (such as P(X = 2)), you'd need to use the continuity correction and find the range from .5 below the number to .5 above the number. When finding probabilities for ranges of ‘outcomes, it doesn't make a difference whether the endpoints are included; that is, X < 3 is the same as X < 3. Because you're modeling a discrete distribution with a continuous one, the continuity correction will make your calculations more precise. Expected value for number of successes 7p mp Expected value for number of failures nd = p), or7ng nd = p), or ng Mean np. mp. ‘Standard deviation You usually don’t need to know it in this context, but it's Jnp(1-p) , or _{npq apt =p) , or inpq © Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc. All rights reserved. This material is Intended for the exclusive use of registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced or redistributed in any form without the express written permission of Apex Learning Ine.Statistics Assignment Page 3 of 7 Binomial Problems Using Two Methods Almost Binomial Remember the definition of a binomial event: 1. There's a set number, n, of identical trials. 2. The outcome of each trial is either a success or a failure. 3. The probability of success on a single trial is p. 4. The trials are independent. There are times the independence criteria might not be satisfied, but for all practical purposes the binomial distribution could still be used. The question is whether the total population is large enough relative to the number of samples. If the population size is at least 20 times larger than the sample size then it could be considered a binomial event. (Some textbooks use 10 instead of 20, and 10 Is also a valid criterion. The important thing is that you use a widely accepted standard when justifying that your situation can be considered binomial.) © Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc. All rights reserved. This material is Intended for the exclusive use of registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced or redistributed in any form without the express written permission of Apex Learning Ine.Statistics Assignment Page 4 of 7 Binomial Problems Using Two Methods Assignment Questions 1. Let X be a binomial random variable with n = 20 and p = .3. ‘A. Write the expression for P(X = 6) in terms of the formula (fhera -p)"* , then evaluate it using your calculator. (1 point) B. Using probability notation, P(x = x), write out all the probabilities you'd need to add up in order to calculate P(X < 6), and then evaluate it using your calculator. (1 point) . For part B, why did you choose the upper bound that you did? If you were using the normal approximation could you choose a different upper bound? Why or why not? (2 point) 2. You're taking samples of size 10 from a population of 20 marbles and recording the number of blue marbles in each sample. Why isn't th and why would it be almost binomial if you the same experiment with a population of 200 marbles? (2 points) 3. A psychiatrist believes that 80% of all Americans who visit doctors have problems of a psychosomatic nature; that is, they have a physical problem with a psychological cause. She decides to randomly select 25 patients to test her theory. A. Is this a binomial experiment? Explain why or why not, using the criteria for a binomial experiment. Since this is a sampling situation, be sure to mention whether it meets the criteria of an almost binomial situation. (2 points) B. Assuming that the psychiatrist's theory is true, what's the expected value of x, the number of the 25 patients who have psychosomatic problems? (In other words, what's the expected number of successes.) (1 point) . Using the exact binomial calculation, find P(X < 15) on your calculator and show what you entered. (1 point) 1) Say you gather a sample of 25 and find that X = 13. Using an exact binomial calculation and assuming that the psychiatrist's theory is true, what's the probability of finding that in a sample of 25, X = 13 .That is, find P(X=13). 2) Assuming this is a good sample, what would you conclude about the theory that 80% of all Americans who visit doctors have problems of a psychosomatic nature? (2 points) 4. Explain the term continuity correction. Why does it work, and how do you use it? (2 points) © Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc. All rights reserved. This material is Intended for the exclusive use of registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced or redistributed in any form without the express written permission of Apex Learning Ine.Statistics Assignment Page 5 of 7 Binomial Problems Using Two Methods © Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc. All rights reserved. This material is Intended for the exclusive use of registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced or redistributed in any form without the express written permission of Apex Learning Ine.Statistics Assignment Page 6 of 7 Binomial Problems Using Two Methods 5. Suppose that 10% of the fields in a given agricultural area with about 2,500 Ids are infested with the sweet potato white fly. One hundred fields in tt area are randomly selected and checked for white fl A. Can this be considered an almost binomial situation? Why or why not? (1 point) B. Using the exact binomial calculation, find the probability that from 4 to 16 randomly selected fields are infected. (1 point) C. Using the normal approximation, find the probability that from 4 and 16 randomly selected fields are infected, Be sure to check that np > 10 and n(1 - p) > 10. Find the probability in two ways: with and without the continuity correction. How do the answers from the two methods compare, and how do you account for the difference? (3 points) D. Sketch the probability distribution and the area you found when using the normal approximation with the continuity correction. (2 points) 6. A very common dahlia plant with red petals is crossed with another very common plant having streaky petals. The probability that an offspring from this cross has red flowers is .75. Let X be the number of plants with red flowers grown from 100 randomly collected seeds from a very large population (N > 10,000) of this cross. ‘A. Does the random variable X have a binomial distribution? If not, why not? If so, what are the values of n and p? What's the mean, or expected number of plants with red petals, and what's the standard deviation of the distribution? (1 point) B. Find P(X > 80) using the exact binomial calculation. (Use your calculator.) (1 point) €. Is it appropriate to use the normal approximation to the binomial probability for this problem? Why? Support your answer with numbers, and a test. (1 point) D. Using the normal approximation with the continuity correction, calculate the probability that you'll observe more than 80 plants with red petals. Indicate the X- values and z-scores involved. How does your answer compare with the one you got in part C, and how do you account for the difference? (2 points) © Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc, Al rights reserved. This material is intended for the exclusive use of registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced of redistributed in any form without the express written permission of Apex Learing IneStatistics Assignment Page 7 of 7 Binomial Problems Using Two Methods. ‘Acknowledgements Question 1: ‘This question is based on question 6.33 from page 234 of Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Tenth Edition, by W. Mendenhall, R. Beaver, and 8. Beaver. Copyright © 1999 by Brooks Cole, civision of Thompson Learning Incorporated. Further reproduction is prohibited without permission of the publisher. Question 3: This question is based on question 5.61 from page 209 of Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Tenth Edition, by W. Mendenhall, R. Beaver, and 8. Beaver. Copyright © 1999 by Brooks Cole, division of Thompson Learning Incorporated. Further reproduction is prohibited without permission of the publisher. Question 5: This question is based on question 5.26 from page 192 of Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Tenth Edition, by W. Mendenhall, R. Beaver, and B. Beaver. Copyright © 1999 by Brooks Cole, division of Thompson Learning Incorporated. Further reproduction Is prohibited without permission of the publisher. Question 6: ‘This question is based on question 5.67 from page 210 of Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Tenth Ealtion, by W. Mendenhall, R. Beaver, and 8. Beaver. Copyright © 1999 by Brooks Cole, division of Thompson Learning Incorporated. Further reproduction Is prohibited without permission of the publisher. {© Copyright 2000 Apex Learning Inc. ll rights reserved. This material Is Intended for the exclusive use of registered users only. No portion of these materials may be reproduced or redistributed in any form without the express written permission of Apex Learning Ine.