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Population Forecast by Different Methods

This document provides worked examples for population forecasting methods, sedimentation tank design, rapid sand filter design, and Hardy Cross method for pipe flow analysis. The population forecasting example predicts population for years 1981, 1991, 1994 and 2001 using arithmetic progression, incremental increase, and geometric progression methods. The sedimentation tank example designs a rectangular tank to treat 2.4 million litres of water per day with a 3 hour detention period. The rapid sand filter example designs a filter to treat 10 million litres of water per day. The Hardy Cross method example calculates head losses and corrected flows in a pipe distribution network.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
63 views8 pages

Population Forecast by Different Methods

This document provides worked examples for population forecasting methods, sedimentation tank design, rapid sand filter design, and Hardy Cross method for pipe flow analysis. The population forecasting example predicts population for years 1981, 1991, 1994 and 2001 using arithmetic progression, incremental increase, and geometric progression methods. The sedimentation tank example designs a rectangular tank to treat 2.4 million litres of water per day with a 3 hour detention period. The rapid sand filter example designs a filter to treat 10 million litres of water per day. The Hardy Cross method example calculates head losses and corrected flows in a pipe distribution network.

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Archimor TruGo
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© © All Rights Reserved
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WorkedoutExamples:

Lecture
Quiz
PopulationForecastbyDifferentMethods
Design SedimentationTankDesign
Example

RapidSandFilterDesign
FlowinPipesofaDistributionNetworkbyHardyCrossMethod
TricklingFilterDesign
PopulationForecastbyDifferentMethods
Problem:Predictthepopulationfortheyears1981,1991,1994,and2001fromthe
followingcensusfiguresofatownbydifferentmethods.
Year
1901
Population: 60
(thousands)

1911
65

1921
63

1931
72

1941
79

1951
89

1961
97

1971
120

Solution:
Year
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
Netvalues
Averages

Population: Incrementper Incremental


(thousands)
Decade
Increase
60

65
+5

63
2
3
72
+9
+7
79
+7
2
89
+10
+3
97
+8
2
120
+23
+15
1
+60
+18

8.57
3.0

+=increase=decrease
ArithmeticalProgressionMethod:
Pn=P+ni
Averageincreasesperdecade=i=8.57
Populationfortheyears,
1981=population1971+ni,heren=1decade
=120+8.57=128.57
1991=population1971+ni,heren=2decade
=120+2x8.57=137.14
2001=population1971+ni,heren=3decade
=120+3x8.57=145.71

PercentageIncrement
perDecade

(5+60)x100=+8.33
(2+65)x100=3.07
(9+63)x100=+14.28
(7+72)x100=+9.72
(10+79)x100=+12.66
(8+89)x100=8.98
(23+97)x100=+23.71
+74.61
10.66

1994=population1991+(population20011991)x3/10
=137.14+(8.57)x3/10=139.71
IncrementalIncreaseMethod:
Populationfortheyears,
1981=population1971+averageincreaseperdecade+averageincrementalincrease
=120+8.57+3.0=131.57
1991=population1981+11.57
=131.57+11.57=143.14
2001=population1991+11.57
=143.14+11.57=154.71
1994=population1991+11.57x3/10
=143.14+3.47=146.61
GeometricProgressionMethod:
Averagepercentageincreaseperdecade=10.66
Pn=P(1+i/100)n
Populationfor1981=Population1971x(1+i/100)n
=120x(1+10.66/100),i=10.66,n=1
=120x110.66/100=132.8
Populationfor1991=Population1971x(1+i/100)n
=120x(1+10.66/100)2,i=10.66,n=2
=120x1.2245=146.95
Populationfor2001=Population1971x(1+i/100)n
=120x(1+10.66/100)3,i=10.66,n=3
=120x1.355=162.60
Populationfor1994=146.95+(15.84x3/10)=151.70
SedimentationTankDesign
Problem: Design a rectangular sedimentation tank to treat 2.4 million litres of raw
waterperday.Thedetentionperiodmaybeassumedtobe3hours.

Solution:Rawwaterflowperdayis2.4x106l.Detentionperiodis3h.
Volumeoftank=FlowxDetentionperiod=2.4x103x3/24=300m3
Assumedepthoftank=3.0m.
Surfacearea=300/3=100m2
L/B=3(assumed).L=3B.
3B2=100m2i.e.B=5.8m
L=3B=5.8X3=17.4m
Hence surface loading (Overflow rate) = 2.4 x 106 = 24,000 l/d/m2 < 40,000
l/d/m2(OK)
100
RapidSandFilterDesign
Problem: Design a rapid sand filter to treat 10 million litres of raw water per day
allowing 0.5% of filtered water for backwashing. Half hour per day is used for
bakwashing.Assumenecessarydata.
Solution:Totalfilteredwater=10.05x24x106=0.42766Ml/h
24x23.5
Lettherateoffiltrationbe5000l/h/m2ofbed.
Areaoffilter=10.05x106x1=85.5m2
23.55000
Providetwounits.Eachbedarea85.5/2=42.77.L/B=1.31.3B2=42.77
B=5.75mL=5.75x1.3=7.5m
Assumedepthofsand=50to75cm.
Underdrainagesystem:
Totalareaofholes=0.2to0.5%ofbedarea.
Assume0.2%ofbedarea=0.2x42.77=0.086m2
100
Areaoflateral=2(Areaofholesoflateral)
Areaofmanifold=2(Areaoflaterals)
So,areaofmanifold=4xareaofholes=4x0.086=0.344=0.35m2.
Diameterofmanifold=x0.351/2=66cm

Assumec/coflateral=30cm.Totalnumbers=7.5/0.3=25oneitherside.
Lengthoflateral=5.75/20.66/2=2.545m.
C.S.areaoflateral=2xareaofperforationsperlateral.Takediaofholes=13mm
Numberofholes:n(1.3)2=0.086x104=860cm2
4
n=4x860=648,say650
(1.3)2
Numberofholesperlateral=650/50=13
Areaofperforationsperlateral=13x(1.3)2/4=17.24cm2
Spacingofholes=2.545/13=19.5cm.
C.S.areaoflateral=2xareaofperforationsperlateral=2x17.24=34.5cm2.
Diameteroflateral=(4x34.51/2=6.63cm
Check:Lengthoflateral<60d=60x6.63=3.98m.l=2.545m(Henceacceptable).
Risingwashwatervelocityinbed=50cm/min.
Washwaterdischargeperbed=(0.5/60)x5.75x7.5=0.36m3/s.
Velocityofflowthroughlateral=0.36=0.36x104=2.08m/s(ok)
Totallateralarea50x34.5
Manifoldvelocity=0.36=1.04m/s<2.25m/s(ok)
0.345
Washwatergutter
Dischargeofwashwaterperbed=0.36m3/s.Sizeofbed=7.5x5.75m.
Assume3troughsrunninglengthwiseat5.75/3=1.9mc/c.
Dischargeofeachtrough=Q/3=0.36/3=0.12m3/s.
Q=1.71xbxh3/2
Assumeb=0.3m
h3/2=0.12=0.234
1.71x0.3
h=0.378m=37.8cm=40cm
=40+(freeboard)5cm=45cmslope1in40

Clearwaterreservoirforbackwashing
For4hfiltercapacity,Capacityoftank=4x5000x7.5x5.75x2=1725m3
1000
Assumedepthd=5m.Surfacearea=1725/5=345m2
L/B=22B2=345B=13m&L=26m.
Diaofinletpipecomingfromtwofilter=50cm.
Velocity<0.6m/s.Diameterofwashwaterpipetooverheadtank=67.5cm.
Aircompressorunit=1000lofair/min/m2bedarea.
For5min,airrequired=1000x5x7.5x5.77x2=4.32m3ofair.
Flow in Pipes of a Distribution Network by Hardy Cross
Method
Problem:Calculatetheheadlossesandthecorrectedflowsinthevariouspipesofa
distribution network as shown in figure. The diameters and the lengths of the pipes
usedaregivenagainsteachpipe.Computecorrectedflowsafteronecorrections.

Solution:Firstofall,themagnitudesaswellasthedirectionsofthepossibleflowsin
eachpipeareassumedkeepinginconsiderationthelawofcontinuityateachjunction.
Thetwoclosedloops,ABCDandCDEFarethenanalyzedbyHardyCrossmethodas
pertables1&2respectively,andthecorrectedflowsarecomputed.

Table1
ConsiderloopABCD
Pipe

Assumed
Diaofpipe
flow
in
in
din

d4.87
l/sec cumecs m
(1) (2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
AB

(+)
43

BC
CD

(+)
23

DA ()20

Lengthof
K
Q 1.85
HL= lHL/Qal
a
pipe(m) =L
K.Qa1.85
470
d4.87
(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

+0.043 0.30 2.85X10 3

500

373

3X10 3

+1.12

26

+0.023 0.20 3.95X10 4

300

1615

9.4X10 4

+1.52

66

0.020

0.20

500

2690

7.2X10 4

1.94

97

0.035

0.20

300

1615

3.23

92

2.53

281

3.95X10 4
3.95X10 4

2X10 3

()35

*HL=(Qa1.85L)/(0.094x1001.85Xd 4.87)
orK.Qa1.85=(Qa1.85L)/(470Xd 4.87)
orK=(L)/(470Xd 4.87)

ForloopABCD,wehave=HL/x.lHL/Qal
=()2.53/(1.85X281)cumecs
=()(2.53X1000)/(1.85X281)l/s
=4.86l/s=5l/s(say)
Hence,correctedflowsafterfirstcorrectionare:
Pipe
AB
Correctedflowsafter
+48
firstcorrectioninl/s

BC

CD

DA

+28

15

30

Table2
ConsiderloopDCFE
Pipe Assumedflow Diaofpipe
in
in
din
l/sec cumecs m
(1) (2)
(3)
(4)

DC

(+)20

+0.020

0.20

CF

(+)28

+0.028

0.15

FE

()8

0.008

0.15

ED

()5

0.005

0.15

d4.87

Length K=L Q 1.85


HL= lHL/Qal
a
4.87
ofpipe 470d
K.Qa1.85
(m)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

3.95
X10 4

500

2690

7.2X10

+1.94

97

+8.80

314

1.47

184

0.37

74

+8.9

669

9.7X10
5

9.7X10

300

6580

500

10940

300

6580

1.34
X10 3

1.34
X10 4

9.7X10

5.6X10

ForloopABCD,wehave=HL/x.lHL/Qal
=()+8.9/(1.85X669)cumecs
=()(+8.9X1000)/(1.85X669))l/s
=7.2l/s
Hence,correctedflowsafterfirstcorrectionare:
Pipe
Correctedflowsafter
firstcorrectioninl/s

DC

CF

FE

ED

+12.8 +20.8 15.2 12.2

TricklingFilterDesign
Problem:Designalowratefiltertotreat6.0MldofsewageofBODof210mg/l.The
finaleffluentshouldbe30mg/landorganicloadingrateis320g/m3/d.
Solution:Assume30%ofBODloadremovedinprimarysedimentationi.e.,=210x
0.30=63mg/l.RemainingBOD=21063=147mg/l.
PercentofBODremovalrequired=(14730)x100/147=80%
BODloadappliedtothefilter=flowxconc.ofsewage(kg/d)=6x106x147/106=
882kg/d
Tofindoutfiltervolume,usingNRCequation

E2=100
1+0.44(F1.BOD/V1.Rf1)1/2
80=100Rf1=1,becausenocirculation.
1+0.44(882/V1)1/2
V1=2704m3
Depthoffilter=1.5m,Fiterarea=2704/1.5=1802.66m2,andDiameter=48m<60
m
Hydraulicloadingrate=6x106/103x1/1802.66=3.33m3/d/m2<4henceo.k.
Organicloadingrate=882x1000/2704=326.18g/d/m3whichisapprox.equalto
320.

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