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Calculate Growth

The document contains a time-series dataset with actual and predicted values over 13 periods. It evaluates different growth formulas - constant annual growth rate, GROWTH, and LOGEST - in predicting the actual values. The best-fit is LOGEST, which estimates an exponential growth trend with R-squared of 0.99 and a constant growth rate of 9.84% that minimizes the variance between actual and predicted values. Breaking down total values into components like revenue and expenses allows for more accurate projection of each.

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hayek1984
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39 views14 pages

Calculate Growth

The document contains a time-series dataset with actual and predicted values over 13 periods. It evaluates different growth formulas - constant annual growth rate, GROWTH, and LOGEST - in predicting the actual values. The best-fit is LOGEST, which estimates an exponential growth trend with R-squared of 0.99 and a constant growth rate of 9.84% that minimizes the variance between actual and predicted values. Breaking down total values into components like revenue and expenses allows for more accurate projection of each.

Uploaded by

hayek1984
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Period

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Actual Predicted
100
100
105
110.03
110
121.07
140
133.22
147
146.59
163
161.30
167
177.48
196
195.29
215
214.89
247
236.45
260
260.17
282
286.28
315
315.00

Constant
Constant Annual
Annual Growth
Growth Rate
Rate Formula
Formula
(End
(End Value
Value // Start
Start Value)
Value) ^
^ (1
(1 // Periods
Periods -- 1))
1)) -1
-1
=(315
=(315 // 100)
100) ^
^ (1
(1 // (13
(13 -- 1)
1) )) -1
-1
=(B14/B2)^(1/12)-1
=(B14/B2)^(1/12)-1

10.034%

ula
ula
1))
1)) -1
-1

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Actual Predicted
100
97.51
105
107.60
110
118.73
140
131.01
147
144.56
163
159.51
167
176.01
196
194.21
215
214.30
247
236.46
260
260.92
282
287.91
315
317.68

GROWTH()
GROWTH() And
And LOGEST()
LOGEST()
GROWTH()
GROWTH() will
will estimate
estimate values,
values, LOGEST()
LOGEST() will
will
give
the
values
used
in
the
estimates
give the values used in the estimates (e.g.
(e.g. the
the
growth
growth percentage
percentage and
and R-squared).
R-squared).

10.34%

GEST()
GEST() will
will
es
es (e.g.
(e.g. the
the
.

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Actual
100
105
110
140
147
163
167
196
215
247
260
282
315

Predicted
100
109.84
120.65
132.52
145.56
159.88
175.62
192.90
211.88
232.73
255.63
280.78
308.41

Actual
350
300

f(x) = 97.512493906 exp( 0.09


R = 0.990178606

250
200
150

9.84%

100
50
0

Actual

7.512493906 exp( 0.0984228927 x )


90178606

10

12

14

Period

Actual
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Predicted

100
100
105 110.0382712
110 121.0842113
140 133.2389727
147 146.6138622
163 161.3313592
167 177.5262386
196 195.3468038
215 214.9562458
247 236.5341366
260 260.2780747
282 286.4054937
315 315.1556539

Estimated Growth:

10.04%

Variance
Squared
0
0
-5.038271 25.38418
-11.08421 122.8597
6.761027 45.71149
0.386138 0.149102
1.668641 2.784362
-10.52624 110.8017
0.653196 0.426665
0.043754 0.001914
10.46586 109.5343
-0.278075 0.077326
-4.405494 19.40837
-0.155654 0.024228
-11.50932 437.1634

Variance

Period

Actual
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Predicted

100
100
105 110.0328106
110 121.072194
140 133.2191379
147 146.5847616
163 161.2913331
167 177.473387
196 195.2789557
215 214.8709234
247 236.4285161
260 260.1489413
282 286.2491917
315 314.9680309

Estimated Growth:

10.03%

Variance
Squared
0
0
-5.032811 25.32918
-11.07219 122.5935
6.780862 45.98009
0.415238 0.172423
1.708667 2.919543
-10.47339 109.6918
0.721044 0.519905
0.129077 0.016661
10.57148 111.7563
-0.148941 0.022184
-4.249192 18.05563
0.031969 0.001022
-10.61818 437.0582

Variance

Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Actual GROWTH
(15.00)
Err:502
(13.45)
Err:502
(12.00)
Err:502
14.34
Err:502
17.57
Err:502
29.69
Err:502
29.69
Err:502
54.57
Err:502
69.33
Err:502
96.96
Err:502
105.46
Err:502
122.82
Err:502
151.04
Err:502

Basic Formula

#VALUE!

Actual
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0

10

(50.00)

Simple formula fails


GROWTH formula fails
Exponential trend line is greyed out.

Break whatever values you're projecting into their component pieces. For instan
revenue growth and expense growth. You can recombine them after analysis.
Period

Profit
Revenue Expenses
0
(15.00)
100.00
115.00
1
(13.45)
105.00
118.45
2
(12.00)
110.00
122.00
3
14.34
140.00
125.66
4
17.57
147.00
129.43
5
29.69
163.00
133.31
6
29.69
167.00
137.31
7
54.57
196.00
141.43
8
69.33
215.00
145.67
9
96.96
247.00
150.04
10
105.46
260.00
154.54
11
122.82
282.00
159.18
12
151.04
315.00
163.96

Revenu
350.00
300.00

f(x) = 97.512493906 exp( 0

250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0

50.00
0

ual

10

12

14

nt pieces. For instance, break profits into


m after analysis.

Revenue

Expenses
170.00
160.00

7.512493906 exp( 0.0984228927 x )

f(x) = 114.9982339686 exp( 0.0

150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
4

10

12

14

110.00
100.00
4

10

12

14

Expenses

982339686 exp( 0.0295554642 x )

10

12

14

10

12

14

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