° 42304 CAN 0 BBM 07 Examination, May/June 2010 (RR Scheme) Decision Models Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 80 PART — A [Answer any three questions. 15 marks each.] 1. A company produces two articles X and Y. There are two departments through which the articles are processed viz assembly and finishing. The potential capacity of the assembly department is 60 hours a week and that of finishing department is 48 hours a week. Production of 1 unit of X requires 4 hours in assembly and 2 hours in finishing. Each unit of Y requires 2 hours of assembly and 4 hours of finishing. If profit is Rs. 8/- for each unit of X and Rs. 6/- for each unit of Y, find out the number of units of X and Y to be produced each week to give maximum profit, Verify your answer. 2. An assembly operation involves the completion of 11 jobs. The time required to — complete each job are given below. You are required to 1) Draw a network diagram. 2) Determine the critical path. 3) Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF, Total Float and Free Float. Show the calculations of ES, LF and free float. Job Job Time (in days) t=2 13 243 08 3-4 10 3-5 09 4-6 i 5-6 10 5-7 08 6-8 06 1-8 07 8-9 14 9-10 18 P.1.0.42304 es ‘i 3. Anelectric part produced by a company are inspected by a random method for a single quality characteristic. The results of inspection are given in the following table. Construct a P-chart and state your conclusion. Sample Number Nanas otunity Number of defectives inspected 1 200 22 BD 200 16 3 200 18 4 200 14 5 200 38 6 200 3 7 200 20 8 200 36 9 200 26 } 10 200 8 ul 200 0 12 200 19 4. A book store sells a particular book of Tax Laws for Rs. 100. He purchases the book for Rs. 80 per copy. Since some of the tax laws change every year, the copies unsold at the end of the year becomes outdated and can be disposed off for Rs. 30 each. According to past experience the annual demand for this book is between 18 and 21 copies. Assuming that the order for books is placed once during the year, prepare payoff table and Opportunities loss or Regret table. Suggest which is the best alternative under Laplace criterion.— = —— aaa oe —- ——e ‘AOTC A a 42304 5. Grow Fast Company is evaluating four alternatives single period opportunities, where returns are based on the state of economy. The possible state of economy and associated probability distribution is as follows : State : Fair Good Great Probability :| 0.2 0.5 (Nee! The retum of each investment opportunity and state of the economy are as follows : Alternative State of Economy Fair Good Great (Rs.) (Rs.) (Rs.) Ww 1000 3000 6800 x 500 4500 6800 Xi 0 5000 8000 Zz — 4000 6000 8500 Using the decision tree approach, determine the expected return for each alternative [EMV]. State which alternative maximises return. PART -B (Answer any two questions. 10 marks each.) 6. Briefly explain the process of decision making. 7. Explain the approaches of six sigma concepts.42304 ee ms 8. The following table shows the job of a PERT network with their time estimate in days. Job Duration days Lp Optimistic | Most likely | Pessimistic ra 3 6 15 1-6 2 5 14 223) 6 12 30 Dae 2 5 8 pee 5 ii 17 4-5 3 6 15 6-7 a 3 27 pas 1 4 7 Lae 4 19 28 i) Draw the project network. ii) Calculate the length and variance of the critical path. iii) What is the probability that the jobs on the critical path will be completed in 41 days ? [SQC table provided]. 9. Construct the Range chart (R-chart) for the following data : Sample Number Sample Size 32 | 36°] 42 28 | 32 | 40 39° | -satapauge 50 | 42 | 31 42 | 45 | 34 50.| 29 | 21 44 | 52 | 35 22% (235% | ome wer ANWRYN HE-5- 42304 PART —C (Answer all the questions, 3 marks each.) 10. What is a Dummy Activity ? 11, State any three differences between PERT and CPM. 12. Write a note on Master Black Belts. 13. Draw a network from the following : Job Predecessor A 2 B = Cc A D B = AB 14. State the features of Linear Programming. dag os3 wmr- 3 (cinaimacde ahadd sizyiert eogoa. dem 15 woeriv.) 1. work domain X abs) Y aoe adc skyrivay evenpabgel, dh akin eusyrem algcdoato tekigotaabod abe) dasitoebnd now ade deprind abner ach soerbga, wt oeoe Departs evsypiem magic, toch s00 60 rotiridd she Boartormotad made, s word SOE 48 riotrivy endogst. X akyas Fe noch suds eumPsd .topowmsae depridd, 4 rottris shay decirheembas ayend, 2 rotirid edmrbgs Y akhod ale worb suas eope .taplomabins aemrig2 roti hay nates nemoridD4 rote wewaTbS. 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Doo’, Das!42304 ‘A a VI Semester B.B.M. Examination, Nov./Dec. 2010 (Scheme : RR) Decision Models Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 80 PART-A (Answer any three questions. 15 marks each.) 1. A factory manufactures two types of electric machines, A and B and earns a profit of Rs. 20 per unit of A and Rs. 30 per unit of B. Each unit of A requires 3 motors and 2 transformers and each unit of B requires 2 motors and 4 transformers. The total supply of components per month is restricted to 210 motors and 300 transformers. How many of each machine should be manufactured per month so as to maximise profit ? n . The following table gives the activities and time duration of those activities of a programme. a) Draw a network diagram. b) Determine critical path. ©) Determine ES, EF, LS, LF, Total Float and Free Float. d) Show the computation of ES, LF and Total Float. Activity Duration (in days) Aneel -2 8 B 1-3 5 e 1-4 es D 3-5 12 E 4-5 6 F 32-6 6 G' 3-6 HT, H-~~5.—7. 9 I 6-8 8 J 7-8 2 aoe 2 P.T.O.42304 -2- 3. Mr. X wanted to invest in one of the three investment plans, shares, units and FD. A/c. The pay off matrix is given in the following table. Determine the best investment plan using each of the following criteria. 1) Maximin 2) Minimax 3) Laplace 4) Hurwiez criteria with co-efficient of 0.5. Alternative Investment Plan State of Nature | Shares | Units | F.D. Ale A, (Rs) | A, Rs) |_A, (Rs) Ss, 10000 7000 ‘| 3000 : s, 000 || 6000 | 1000 Ss, | 6000 /| 5000 6000 a ial? 4. Construct the P-control chart on a graph sheet for percentage defeetives ia following data of usual defects found at inspection of the first 10 samples ec 100 and state your conclusion. Sample number (cach of 100 items): 1 2 3 4 5 67 8 9 10 Number of defectives: 12 10 6 8 9 9 7 10 11 8 5. XYZ manufacturing company has to select one of the two products A or B for manufacturing. Product A requires investment of Rs. 20,000 and Product B, Rs. 40,000, The market research conducted by the company shows high, medium. and low demands with corresponding probabilities and return from sales, in rupees thousand, for the two products, in the following table : Probability Return from sales Market A B A B High 04 03 50 80 Medium | 0.3 0.5 30 60 Low 03 0.2 lo 50 Construct an appropriate decision tree. What decision the company should take ?3. 42304 PART -B (Answer any two questions. 10 marks each) 6. Explain how Six Sigma concept is implemented. 7. Briefly explain basic steps in PERT/CPM techniques. 8. A small project is composed of seven activities whose time estimates are listed in the table below : Estimated duration (weeks) Activity | Optimistic | Most likely _ | Pessimistic 2 1 ip 12 1 4 Z 1A 2 2 8 2-5 1 1 1 a5 2 5 14 4-6 2 oS 8 ey “ake 5 6 Jae. | a) Draw the project network. b) Find the expected duration and variance of each activity. c) Calculate early start and latest finish for each event. What is the expected project length ? 9. Construct R chart on a graph sheet for the following data : | Sample Observations Total Number 1 32 36 42 110 2, 28 32 40 100 3 39 52 28 119 \ 4 50 42 31 123 | 5 42 45 34 121 uy 6 50 29 21 100 7 44 52 35 131 8 22 35 44 10142304 di PART —C (Answer all the questions. 3 marks each.) 10. What is critical activity ? 11. Expand DMADV. 12. Draw a network diagram. Activity Predecessor A S b a c a d c . e bc Z i dc ae 13. What are the constraints in Linear programming? 14. What are merge and burst events ? | tae ey wn- 2 (canaicocidn 3 depen eugon. den 15 wore.) 1. tocbmame doi A shay B aow adi Satya t ccbog ida enisape, A amb toch osedestrt Ga. 20 soap B cd tock odaniert dia, 30 ened rierbych noch A abode eur 3 Hnetmotrivd Soy? emer mabr o'rish abe LoebB obese wvsyst2 sleetsotrid> sive 4 smatgmabrorriko eleeorbgs. exacrind e.emp eaggow wor Sorkert210 soesworrted abd) 300 emargosbr orien Aosogzinnc. sorousay shggien womb Sorien A sep Bo om} ccboairiveh vusaprieemoribgs onset dordemmetbo. 2. worb matbr otmenstrt dononan aenmerie menmincba sr dena asain debe. eciood ©) Sistatetr wznar, 0) Suet mach AGFOA. a) ES, EF, LS, LF, Total Float 3322 Free Float mvs ¢ozsto@0w00. 8) ES, LF 23 Total Float rv tomstoactsondobay zaeos,a; 423 meso (extv9,) A 1-2 8 B 1-3 5 © 1-4 13 D 3-5 12 E 4-5 6 B 2-6 6 G 5-6 P H 5-7 9 I 6-8 8 J 7-8 2 K 8-9 6 3. aad Baas Srensinivd sedorieo, coaanesrisd aos) F.D. smd ss Svcd gondd Boas nde» do. X dod esas. 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Ot@adot samp dvontad eatserivs cinabah ? ’ 14, AeOBaeyss sive) t.cdcb atactacdsl econ Rorksrivortects 742304 CONTROL ‘CHART CONSTANTS [art evrnes ‘Chant for Standard devitons Chart for ranges vo.ct | resem [reco] ‘aa fa ped rasan Observa- control limits for ‘control fimits: control fimits tions in ential central samples fine 0 A Aa ies 2 2.121 3.760 1.880 0.5642 3 |i7a2 2394 1.023 07236 4 1.500 1.880 0.72910.7979 i ‘a2 1,896 0.57/7.8407 6 1.225 1.410 0.438 10.8686 T 1.134 1.277 0.419 10,8882 8 1.061 1.175 0.373 j0.9027 3 1.000 1.084: 0.337 10.9139 10 10.949 *.028 0.308 }0.9227 {i fos 0973 0.285}0.9900 12 865 0.925 0.266}0.9359 13 fasse oge4 c.zs9fosst0 4 jO.802 O84E 0.5 10.9483 is foxzs ost 0.223}0s480 Standards Given Analysis of Past Data Statistics Central line Limits Central line x x X+Ao’ x ° Ce B,o},B,0" R 6 Dio’, D, 0" R42304 (0 A VI Semester B.B.M. Examination, May/June 2011 (R.R. Scheme) Decision Models Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 80 PART-A Answer any three questions. 15 marks each. 1. A manufacturer produces ‘P’ and ‘Q’ products, Each P requires 4 hours of machine Aand 2 hours of Machine B. Each Q requires 2 hours of Machine A and 4 hours of machine B, The available hours for Machine A is 20 and for machine B is 28, Profit per unit of P is Rs. 6 and that of Q is Rs. 8. What quantities of each should be produced and sold to maximise profit ? Solve by graphic method. nv .. The following table shows the jobs of a project with their duration in days. Time (days) 1 foie te wWoeINonraAw 2 3 a 4 Gea > 6 7 8 a 1 so From the above information you are required to 1) Construct a network diagram 2) Compute the earliest event time and latest event time 3) Compute total float free float for each activity 4) Determine the critical path and total project duration. P.1.0.42304 2 ‘U0 08 3. The following table gives the inspection data of completed plugs. Construct a P-chart on a graph sheet and state your conclusion : Sample Sample | Number of Number Size defectives 1 400 17 2 400 15 3 400 14 4 400 6 . 400 9 6 400 4 # 400 19 8 400 12 9 400 9 10 400 15 4.. A small firm produces a product at an average cost of Rs. 30 per box and sells at a price of Rs. 50 per box. The product is manufactured over the week end and is sold during the following week. Past experiences shows the weekly demand for the product varies from 797 to 800 units. You are required to formulate pay off table, Opportunity loss table and also suggest which is the best alternative under Minimax Regret criterion. 5. Acompany dealing with newly invented telephonic device is faced with the problem of selecting the following strategies. The profit in lakhs rupees that can be expected in each cases and the probabilities associated with the sales volume are shown in the following table : T Manufacture Sell the Event Probability a Royalty | Tights High Demand 02 100 40 20 Medium Demand 03 30 25 20 Low Demand 05 -10 15 20 Represent the companys problem in the form of a decision tree and determine the expected return (EMV) for each alternative and state which alternative maximises return. PART-B Answer any two questions 10 marks each. 6. Briefly explain decision making process.3 42304 4, The following table shows the jobs of a network along with their time estimates : Job Optimistic days_| Most aeteaty Pessimistic days 1 13 2 i 14 2 4 26 2 5 8 * 10 19 $ 5 7 5 8 29 3 3 9 8 7 32 Draw the project network and find the probability that project is completed in 40 days (SQC table provided). 8. Explain the approaches of six sigma concepts. 9. Construct the Range Chart from the following data : Sample Number Sample Size 2 46 45 4] 3 2 41 41 44 | 40 3 40 | 42 40 | 42 4 a2 43 42 | 45 5 45 47 43 | 44 6 42 44 47_| 47 (Control charts table provided.) PART -C Answer alll the questions. 3 marks each. 10. What are merge and burst events ? 11. Drawa network from the following : Activity Predecessor A7AMOOW>D MUOQW>>! a 12. What do you understand by decision tree ? 13. Write short note on CPM. 14, State the features of Linear programming.42304 4 CANO tae UalS wan- a conammdde sec Zuneri evga. se 15 wosried. 1, weyevapgieh ‘P’ abe) ‘Q” oow atxystety evan Oxogchand. wa ‘P” skys wusapit cidos, ‘WS 4 Motiv marin otes ‘ws 2 rotted teworbse, 3 ‘Q’ akgax euseart otdos, ‘aS 2 Motiv marta obog ‘wd 4 rlotined ciesorass. ocdog ‘o's 2. madara 20 notin core cbbog ‘ws Lt, madEr a 28 rosiied. Ja ‘P? Budd eneda. 6 more 2‘ sees ened da 8 aan, Gee aed) carpod reenP manoQ sryrlv omy, essa, mBO® QseeDd Bnariedoutiay sors BRO. 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Scheme) Decision Models Time : 3 Hours Max. Marks : 80 PART-A Answer any three questions, 15 marks each : 1. A manufacturer produces two products, namely, ‘P” and ‘Q’. Each product ‘P” requires 4 hours of grinding and 2 hours of polishing. Each product ‘Q’ requires 2 hours of grinding and 4 hours of polishing. The available hours for grinding is 20 and for polishing 28. Profit per unit of ‘P” is Rs. 6 and that of ‘Q’ is Rs. 8. ‘What quantities of each should be produced and sold to maximize profit ? Solve by using graph. 2. A programme consists of the following activities. You are required to 1) Draw a network diagram 2) Deterinine the critical path 3) Calculate ES, EF, LS, LF, Total float and free float. Show the calculation of ES, LF and free float. Activity | Duration in days 1-2 2 1-3 2 1-4 1 ae) 4 4-6 8 a= 9 5 4-6 — se 1 6-9 5 1s 4 8-9 3 P.1.0.42304 Sample Sample size Nimber| 4 | .o- | sullen eames 1 40 | 42 | 48 | so | 40 | 44 2 52 | 48 | 45 | 45 | 44 | 40 3 32 | 40 | 48 | 60 | 62 | 48 4 40 | 42 | 44 | 45 | so | 53 5 30 | 40 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 43 6 60 | 62 | 48 | 50 | 65 | 60 7 40 | 45 | so | 65 | 40 | 35 8 64 | 34 | 24 | 30 | 60 | 38 9 8] 038.-|°34° | 3a5)no5 abeae 10 | 40 | 38 | 42 | so | 30 | 20 ~~ 3. From the following table construct a R-chart and state whether the production process is under ¢ontrol or not. 4. A book store sells a particular book of tax laws for Rs. 100. He purchases the book for Rs. 80 per copy. Since some of the tax laws changes every year the copies unsold at the end of the year becomes outdated and can be disposed off for Rs. 30 each. According to past experience the annual demand for this book is between 18 and 21 copies. Assuming that the order is placed once during the year, prepare payoff table and opportunities loss or regret table. Suggest which is the best alternative under mini max criterion. problem of selecting one of the following strategies i) Manufacture the device itself ii) To give on royalty basis to another manufacturer iii) Sell the rights of its invention for a lumpsum. . A company dealing, with newly invented telephonic device is faced with theAe” 3 42304 ‘The profit in thousands rupees that can be expected in each case and the probabi associated with the sales volume are shown below : Event Probability gn Royalty Paes High Demand 02 100 40 20 Medium Demand 03 30 25 20 Low Demand 05 -10 15 20 Represent the company’s problem in the form of a decision tree and state which is the best alternative action. PART -B Answer any two questions, 10 marks each : 6. What are the features of linear programming ? Explain. 7. Explain briefly the process of decision making. 8. The activities involved in a PERT network of a project are given below : Duration days Activity t. t, t SG EL etaoey foe eee 7 1-3 1 4 t- 14 = [hoe | 2148 225 ie Sette RSs soaks || a a6. 12 sel de Tee | PE Rae a) Draw the pert network diagram b) Find the expected time and variance of each activity ©) Find the variance of the critical path f42304 ae 9. The following table gives the inspection data of cémpleted cables. Constict a P-chart on a graph sheet and state your conclusion Sample Sample Number of Number Size defectives Ed 200 20 3 2 200 14 3 200 16 4 200 12 5 200 36 6 200 3 7 200 18 8 200 34 9 200 0 10 200 8 PART -C Answer alll the questions, 3 marks each : 10. What is Dummy activity ? 11. What are merge and burst events ? 12. Write a note on minimax criterion. 13. Expand DMAIC and DMADV. 14. Draw the network from the following : Activity Predecessor ts = She c A D A E B F c Gi DE