Mizuho Corporate Bank
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Mizuho Corporate Bank
1.475
1.47
1.465
1.46
1.455
1.45
1.445
1.44
1.435
1.43
38.2
1.425
1.42
1.415
1.41
1.405
50.0
1.4
30Sep09 07Oct 14Oct 21Oct 28Oct 04Nov 11Nov 18Nov 25Nov 02Dec 09Dec 16Dec 23Dec 30Dec 06Jan 13Jan 20Jan 27Jan 03Feb 10Feb 17Feb 24Feb 03Mar
Comment: Currently capped at 1.4200 and retreating to re-test the 50% Fibonacci retracement from April
2009’s low (not October 2008’s low). One-month at-the-money implied volatility appears to have based around
10.00% and should now squeeze up to 13.50%. Over the next few weeks we feel the Euro should stabilise and form
a new interim low but this could be a slow, nerve-wracking process.
Strategy: Possibly attempt very small longs at 1.4080; stop below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4180 but be
ready to re-buy on a sustained break above 1.4225 for 1.4400.
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance Direction of Trade
1.4071 1.4120
1.4050 1.4182/1.4195*
1.4029* 1.4220
1.4000** 1.4311
1.3900 1.4415