Housing Demand Projections, Saratoga County, NY

Prepared by: Alex Belensz, Edward J. Bloustein School, Rutgers University

For: Professors Mike Smart and Mi Shih, Methods of Planning Analysis II
10.22.2014

Saratoga County, NY
Saratoga County is located in east-central New York
State, north of the state capital of Albany. While
urban and suburban areas exist in the south-central
areas of the county, it is primarily rural. The northern
reaches of the county contain the foothills of the
Adirondack Mountains, and the southern border of the
Adirondack Park, the largest state park in the lower
48 states.1 The southern half of the county contains the
northern suburban fringe of the greater Albany area.
Much of the development here is within the Interstate
87 corridor (Map 1). Known as The Adirondack
Northway, it runs north from Albany and passes by
Saratoga Springs, a city of 26,586.2 Saratoga
Springs is the most prominent urban area in the county,
and functions as the countys cultural center. The citys
historic downtown and famous racetrack are among
the primary tourist draws to the county, in addition to
access to the Adirondack Park.3

Map 1: Saratoga County, NY. Source: NYS Geospatial Clearinghouse

Saratoga County Population: Now and Then

250,000
200,000

Population

Saratoga County has grown at a consistent rate since

1940 (Figure 1). Factors contributing to this growth
include the expanding suburban ring around Albany,
the presence of Saratoga Springs as an exciting urban
center and access to the Adirondack Park. The recent
establishment of a large technology campus in the
Town of Malta will likely encourage growth into the
future. Over 1600 jobs have already been created as
a result of the opening of a computer chip plant on the
campus.4 Growth projections prepared by the Capital
District Regional Planning Commission predict
continued population growth through 2040.5 Should
this continued growth be realized, the County and its
municipalities will have to plan to meet demand for
housing and government services.

150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1940

National Historic Landmarks Program. Adirondack Forest Preserve.

United States Census Bureau (2010). 2010 Decennial Census of Population.
3 Saratoga Springs Heritage Area Visitor Center. (2014). History of Saratoga.
4 Luther Forest Technology Campus. (2014). History of the Luther Forest.
5
Capital District Population and Projections, July 2012
1

1960

1980
Year

2000

Figure 1: Saratoga County Population, 1940 2010

Source: US Census Bureau

Population Pyramids and Historical Trends

The 1990 age-sex pyramid for Saratoga

County displays a bump in population for
the age cohorts between 25 and 45
(Figure 2). These cohorts comprise the
Baby Boomer generation, thus the bump is
not surprising. What is striking is the
relatively small size of the oldest cohorts,
and how rapidly the population tapers off
after the Baby Boomer cohorts. The male
85+ cohort had a population of only 452
in 1990. However, the size of this cohort
nearly tripled by 2010.

Cohort

1990

2000

10,000

1990

Female
Male

5,000

5,000

10,000

Population
Figure 2: Age-Sex Cohort, Saratoga County, 1990
Source: US Census Bureau

Cohort

The 2000 age-sex pyramid shows the

aging Baby Boomer generation shifting to
older cohorts (Figure 3). Another bump is
seen between the ages of 5 and 19; these
are likely the children of the Baby
Boomers. While slightly smaller than the
Baby Boomer cohorts, this growth of the
younger cohorts suggests the possibility
that many Baby Boomers found the county
a satisfactory place to remain raise a
family. The Baby Boomer cohorts also
grew from 1990. In 1990, the largest
cohort was 30-34, with 8,309 females
and 8,159 males. In 2000, the largest
cohort was 35-39, with 9,054 females
and 8,895 males, indicating that Baby
Boomers were migrating into the county.
One striking difference between 1990
and 2000 was the shrinking of the 20-24
age cohort, which lost 1,442 females and
1,439 males. This may indicate that few
young adults were moving into the area
between 1990 and 2000, or that many
college graduates were not returning
home.

85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10,000

2000

Female
Male

5,000

5,000

Population
Figure 3: Age-Sex Cohort, Saratoga County, 2000
Source: US Census Bureau

10,000

Evaluating Regression Models for Projecting Population

In order to determine the best model to use for estimates of future population, a variety of models were
tested against the observed historical populations for Saratoga County. The models were evaluated based
on the following outputs: R-Square, Mean Average Percent Error (MAPE), and absolute percent error (APE).
R-Square, which reports how well the data fit the outputted regression, was generated by running the
various regression models in Microsoft Excel. The MAPE was calculated by averaging the percent error
generated by each year in the projection. The APE was calculated by subtracting the predicted 2010
population from the observed population, and dividing the difference by observed population. The
formulas and outputs for each model are summarized in Table 1.
All of the models performed reasonably well, returning high R-Square values. The exponential model
performed the worst, overpredicting the 2010 population by 40,604 people, an absolute percent error of
18.5 percent. Interestingly, the exponential model had one of the lowest MAPE values at just 6.0 percent.
The moving average model also performed relatively poorly, underpredicting the 2010 population by
28,651 and returning an absolute percent error of 13.0 percent. This type of error is expected when using
a moving average model on a steadily changing population, since it calculates predictions from the
average of the two previous time periods. The power model returned the lowest R-Square, indicating a
higher degree of unexplained variation. The modified exponential model recorded the most accurate
2010 prediction, with an APE of 0.9 percent. However, the returned MAPE value of 20.3 percent indicates
it may not be reliable for other years. Going forward, the most appropriate model to use is either the
logarithmic or linear model (Figures 4 and 5, respectively). These models had nearly identical, high RSquare values (0.976 vs 0.977), low MAPE values (5.6 vs 5.5 percent) and low 2010 APE values (1.4 vs
1.8 percent). The low MAPE values are important, as they indicate a more consistently accurate prediction.

5.5%

Actual 2010
Population
219,607

Predicted 2010
Population
223,498

0.98431198

6.0%

219,607

260,211

18.5%

y=a+b*ln(x)

0.9759444

5.6%

219,607

222,730

1.4%

Polynomial

y=ax2+bx+c

0.9864957

4.6%

219,607

240,058

9.3%

Power
Moving
average
Modified
exponential

y=a*xb

0.91726820

10.2%

219,607

198,193

9.8%

yt=avg(yt-1,yt-2,yt-3,)

N/A

22.3%

219,607

190,956

13.0%

y=c-a*(b^x)

0.9540144

20.3%

219,607

221,660

0.9%

Model

Equation

R2

MAPE

Linear

y=ax+b

0.976822

Exponential

y=a*ebx

Logarithmic

2010 APE
1.8%

Table 1: Comparison of regression model outputs, Saratoga County population projections

25%

Percent Error

20%
15%
MAPE

10%

2010 APE

5%
0%

Linear

Exponential Logarithmic

Polynomial

Power

Moving
average

Modified
exponential

Figure 4: Comparison of mean average percent error (MAPE) and absolute percent error (APE) for different regression models, Saratoga County population projections

250,000
Observed Population

y=ax+b

Population

200,000
Predicted Population
150,000
2010 Predicted
100,000
2010 Population
50,000
Linear (Observed Population)
1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year
Figure 5: Comparison of observed and predicted values for linear population model, Saratoga County, NY: 1940 2010. Source: US Census Bureau

250,000
Observed Population

y=a+b*ln(x)

Population

200,000
Predicted Population
150,000
2010 Population
100,000
2010 Predicted
50,000
Log. (Observed Population)
0
1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year
Figure 6: Comparison of observed and predicted values for logarithmic population model, Saratoga County, NY: 1940 2010. Source: US Census Bureau

Evaluating the Cohort-Component Model for Projecting Population

The cohort-component projection is performed with respect to observed rates of birth, survival from one
cohort to the next, and estimated migration. Migration is estimated by taking the difference between the
2000 predicted and observed populations. This is a bottom-up projection.
The model was accurate at predicting overall population. The predicted value was 216,123 for the 2010
population, compared to 219,508 for the observed population, an APE of just 1.54 percent. This is
comparable to the best results from the regression models (Table 1). The small underestimation may be the
result of the recent spike in job growth in the county with opening of the Luther Forest Technology Campus.6
Several discrepancies emerge when comparing individual age cohorts. The most obvious instance is in the
male 85+ cohort, where the cohort component model predicted a value of 1,069, far under the observed
value of 2,753 (Figures 6 and 7, respectively). There were noticeable discrepancies in other older age
cohorts as well. However, the model was very accurate in the middle-age ranges. In the case of 30-34
males, the predicted population was off by just one person (6,365 predicted, 6,366 observed). The model
also did a reasonably adept job of predicting the youngest age cohorts. Overall, the age-sex pyramids
match each other well. This is not surprising, considering the consistent rate of growth the county has
experienced each decade since 1940.

Luther Forest Technology Campus. (2014). History of the Luther Forest.

10,000

Female
Male

5,000

5,000

10,000

Population

Age Cohort

Predicted

85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10,000

Observed

Female
Male

5,000

5,000

10,000

Population

Figure 6: Saratoga County, predicted age-sex cohort, 2010

Figure 7: Saratoga County, observed age-sex cohort, 2010

Source: US Census Bureau

Housing Demand Projections

Housing demand projections for
115,000
the County are based on the
projected 2020 population,
110,000
household demographic data
105,000
from the Census, building
permit data from Saratoga
Projected Shortfall
100,000
County, vacancy rates, and
Projected Need
rates of units lost to disaster,
95,000
Actual Projected
conversion and demolition. The
90,000
2020 population projection will
use the linear model. Rates for
85,000
unit loss were not available at
a county or state level for New
80,000
2000 Census
2010 Census
2020 Projection
York, thus national rates were
(Linear Model)
used. This model predicts that
Year
there will be an unmet demand
Figure 8: Summary of inputs for projecting unmet housing demand, 2011- 2020
for 8,754 units of housing in
Saratoga County between 2010 and 2020, nearly one-third of the projected number of housing units that
will be needed between 2000 and 2020 (Figure 8, Table 2). This potential level of unmet housing demand
in Saratoga County is concerning. Simple supply and demand economics tells us that housing prices will
increase if supply is overly constrained. This has potential negative ramifications for maintaining an
appropriate amount of affordable housing. Additionally, it could mean that recent college graduates may
be priced out of housing in the area, and may seek to live elsewhere.
Housing Units

Age Cohort

85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

Population Data and Projections

2000 Census

2010 Census

a. Total Population
b. Population in Group Quarters
c. Household Population
d. Average HH size
e. Number of Households
f. Total Housing Units
g. Occupied Housing
h. Vacant Units
i. Vacancy Rate

200,635
4,309
196,326
2.51
78,218
86,701
78,165
8,536
9.8%

219,607
3,950
215,657
2.44
88,384
98,656
88,296
10,360
10.5%

+11,848
+3,648
11,247
1,480
888
8,879
26,743
17,988
8,754

0.5%
0.3%
0.3%

Housing Demand
j. Change in the Number of Households 2000-2020
k. Change in the Number of Vacant Units 2000-2020
l. Units that Must be Replaced 2000-2020
m. Units Lost to Disaster 2000-2020
n. Units Lost to Conversion 2000-2020
o. Units Lost to Demolition 2000-2020
p. Total Number of Units Needed 2000-2020
q. Projected Housing Completions 2001-2020
Unmet Housing Demand 2011-2020

2020 Projection
(Linear Model)
238,579
3,591
234,988
2.37
98,549
110,611
98,427
12,184
11.2%

National Rates

Table 2: Summary of inputs for projecting unmet housing demand, 2011- 2020

Conclusion
Saratoga County has been growing at a consistent rate for the past seven decades. The age-sex pyramids
indicate a fairly normal age progression of the population, with the largest impact on the shape of the
pyramid coming from the Baby Boomer age cohorts and those of their children. Considering the effect of
the recent spike in tech job opportunities, this growth is likely to continue into the near future. Saratoga
County and its municipalities must be prepared to cope with the challenges of continued growth. The
County must plan for a continued increase in housing demand, without damaging the character that makes
it a desirable place to live. A future planning strategy that includes provisions for increasing housing
supply, providing affordable housing, and preserving the historical and natural areas of the county will
serve the area well.

References
Capital District Regional Planning Commission. (2012, July). Capital District Population and Projections.
Retrieved October 15, 2014, from Capital District Regional Planning Commission:
http://www.cdrpc.org/Proj-Pop.html
Luther Forest Technology Campus. (2014). History of the Luther Forest. Retrieved October 16, 2014, from
Luther Forest Technology Campus: http://www.lutherforest.org/about_concept.php
Program, National Historic Landmarks. (n.d.). Adirondack Forest Preserve. Retrieved October 15, 2014,
from National Park Service:
http://tps.cr.nps.gov/nhl/detail.cfm?ResourceId=677&ResourceType=Site
Saratoga Springs Heritage Area Visitor Center. (2014). History of Saratoga. Retrieved 15 2014, October,
from Saratoga Springs Heritage Area Visitor Center:
http://www.saratogaspringsvisitorcenter.com/about-saratoga-springs/history-of-saratoga
US Census Bureau. (2010). 2010 Decennial Census of Population.