Scribd
Upload
257 views1 page

ARDL Bound Test

This document discusses time series analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration and causality. It explains that the ARDL model can be applied regardless of whether the variables are integrated of order zero, one, or cointegrated. The model involves estimating error correction models and the bounds test approach is used to test for cointegration between the variables. The procedure involves testing for unit roots in the variables, then testing for cointegration using the bounds test F-statistic to investigate long-run relationships, and finally testing for Granger causality based on the cointegration results.

Uploaded by

himu6749721
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
257 views1 page

ARDL Bound Test

This document discusses time series analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration and causality. It explains that the ARDL model can be applied regardless of whether the variables are integrated of order zero, one, or cointegrated. The model involves estimating error correction models and the bounds test approach is used to test for cointegration between the variables. The procedure involves testing for unit roots in the variables, then testing for cointegration using the bounds test F-statistic to investigate long-run relationships, and finally testing for Granger causality based on the cointegration results.

Uploaded by

himu6749721
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 1

Data Analysis & Forecasting

Faculty of Development Economics

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS


BOUNDS TEST FOR COINTEGRATION WITHIN ARDL
MODELLING APPROACH
Another way to test for cointegration and causality is the Bounds Test for Cointegration
within ARDL modelling approach. This model was developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) and
can be applied irrespective of the order of integration of the variables (irrespective of
whether regressors are purely I (0), purely I (1) or mutually cointegrated). This is specially
linked with the ECM models and called VECM.

1. THE MODEL
The ARDL modelling approach involves estimating the following error correction models:
n

i =1

j=1

i =1

j=1

Yt = 0 y + 1y Yt 1 + 2 y X t 1 + i Yt i + j X t j + u yt
X t = 0 x + 1x Yt 1 + 2 x X t 1 + i X t i + j Yt j + u xt

(1)
(2)

Important note is the same as the Standard Granger Causality.

2. TEST PROCEDURE
Suppose we have Yt and Xt are nonstationary.
THE DYNAMIC GRANGER CAUSALITY is performed as follows:
Step 1: Testing for the unit root of Yt and Xt
(using either DF, ADF, or PP tests)
Suppose the test results indicate that Yt and Xt have different orders of integration.
Step 2: Testing for cointegration between Yt and Xt
(usually use Bounds test approach)
For equations 1 and 2, the F-test (normal Wald test) is used for investigating one or more
long-run relationships. In the case of one or more long-run relationships, the F-test indicates
which variable should be normalized. In Equation 1, when Y is the dependent variable, the
null hypothesis of no cointegration is H0: 1y = 2y = 0 and the alternative hypothesis of
cointegration is H1: 1y 2y 0. On the other hand, in Equation 2, when X is the
dependent variable, the null hypothesis of no cointegration is H0: 1x = 2x = 0 and the
alternative hypothesis of cointegration is H1: 1x 2x 0.
Step 3: Testing for Granger Causality?
Questions: How to explain the test results?
Phung Thanh Binh (2010)

You might also like