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Environmental Modelling An Introduction

Contenido Libro Environmental Modelling an Introduction

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Mario Jurado
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558 views

Environmental Modelling An Introduction

Contenido Libro Environmental Modelling an Introduction

Uploaded by

Mario Jurado
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF or read online on Scribd
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OXFORD | environmental - modelling an introduction Jo Smith « Pete Smith m@ CONTENTS PREFACE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1 Introduction 1.1 What if there was ife on Mars? 1.2 What is a model? 1.3. Why use models? 1.4 Which mode! should | use? 1.41 Determining what ype of mocel to use 1.4.2 Determining what type of mathematics to use inthe model 15. Choosing an existing model 1.5 How is a model made? Summary Problems How to develop a model 2.4 Choose the type of model 2.1.1 Why am doing his? 2.12 How shoul | dots? 2.13 The prinope of parsimony 2.14 What do | do now? 2.2. Draw up a conceptual mode! 22.1 Draw picture 222 Usall hypotheses 223 Ustall ssumptions 2.24 Set the boundary conditions 23. Attach a mathematical model 231 The parts ofa mathematical model 2.32 Linking together fied partes and input variables 233 Choasing the mathematical aproachta dev the model 234 trample 2.4 Construct a computer model 24.1 General sreadseets 2.42 Specialist modeling sofware 243 High-level programming languages 25. Andthen...7 Summary Problems Further reading 20 2B m4 26 a n u 29 30 ET 32 3 3 3B 35 36 36 38 40 45 52 55 6 2 8 65 vi CONTENTS References Web links 3 How to evaluate a model 31 32 33 34 35 36 Decide what type of evaluation is needed Plot the results (graphical analysis) 32. Plasto reveal the accuracy ofthe simulation 3.22 Plots toilustate the behaviour ofthe model congonents 3.23 Plats to estabsh the important model components Caleulate the accuracy ofthe simulation (quantitative anahsis) 33.1 Analysis of coincidence 33.2 Analysis of association 33.3 An exemple ofthe use of statistics to assess the accuracy of & mode: the mel of si Carbon change on Mars Examine the behaviour of the model (sensitivity analysis) 34.) Whats sensitivity anajsis and wy sit important? 34.2 Methads used in sersitiay analysis 3.4.3 Expressing sersvy Deterrine the importance of the model cormponents (uncertainty analysis) 35.1 Whats uncertainty analysis and why it important? 235.2 Methods used in uncetainyanalss 3.53 Representina variation in the input parameters and model outputs, 354 Bepressing uncertainty ‘Aad then... Summary Problems Further reading References Web inks 4 Now to apply a model ay 42 43 Scientific representation 4.1.1 Who is the end-user? 4.1.2 Hows the model used? 4.1.3 Guard against input eror 4.1.4 Guard against misinterpetation ofthe sasits 4.15 Documentation Expert and decision support systems 4.2.1 Who is the end-user? 4.2.2 How is the model wsed? 4.23 Guard against input ery 4.24 Guard against msinterpretaton ofthe results 425 Documentation Risk assessment 43.1 Who isthe end-user? 43.2 How is the model used? 67 67 69 70 a 2 76 78 a1 94 98 106 106 107 v7 109 109 110 110 m 1B 114 15 u7 wT "8 19 122 1B 124 126 128 ww 128 1 130 130 132 132 134 BS 136 Append Glossary INDEX 44 45 46 433 Guard aginstinpu ror 434 Guard against msiterpretation ofthe rests 435 Documentation Spatially-explicit applications 441 Who the end use? 4142 How's the model sed? 403 Guard againstnput ror 4.4.4 Guard against misintespretation of the results 445 Doeumenaticn Eplogue 4.5.1 How has life on Mars been improved? 452 The eal-arh aplcations ofthe mals used in his back Sos ths the end? summary Problems Further reading References Web links lix 1 Solutions to problems: uw 12 4B a4 Sokutions to problems in Chapter 1 Solutions to problems in Chapter 2 Solutions to problems in Chapter 3 Solutions to problems in Chapter 4 CONTENTS vii 13T BT 138 139 139 140 13 144 4 146 146 147 150 152 156 157 157 158 159 160 167 m 176 179

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