Understanding Forecasts

UNDERSTANDING THE SHIPPING AND INSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
The Shipping Forecast and Inshore Waters Forecast both use a standard and abbreviated format to
pass a lot of information in a short period of time - by knowing what's being said and in what order
(always the same) it's possible to gain an understanding of the conditions, even in poor reception
areas if listening to the forecast on marine VHF. The terms used are standardised. The Coastguard
broadcasts Marine Safety Information (MSI) on marine VHF.
As well as marine VHF, weather bulletins for shipping are broadcast daily on BBC Radio 4. The
bulletins consist of a gale warning summary, general synopsis, sea-area forecasts and coastal
station reports. In addition, gale warnings are broadcast at the first available programme break
after receipt. If this does not coincide with a news bulletin, the warning will be repeated after the
next news bulletin.
Shipping Area Forecast

Example Shipping Area Forecast - this is
what you'll actually hear during a radio
transmission, or read on a text forecast.
Explanation (See also "Terms used")
THE SHIPPING FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MET

OFFICE, ON BEHALF OF THE MARITIME AND
COASTGUARD AGENCY, AT 1725 ON SATURDAY
02 JULY 2005
Time & date of the forecast.
THERE ARE WARNINGS OF GALES IN SHANNON

ROCKALL MALIN HEBRIDES BAILEY FAIR ISLE
FAEROES AND SOUTHEAST ICELAND
Any Gale Warnings are issued first, with details

of the Sea Areas to which they apply. See the
Sea Areas chart below.
THE GENERAL SYNOPSIS AT 1300

LOW JUST WEST OF ROCKALL 987 EXPECTED
BAILEY 983 BY 1300 TOMORROW
This is a general overview - at 1300 there is a

low pressure area to the west of Rockall - with a
barometric pressure of 987. It's expected to
move NE to Bailey with a barometric pressure of
983 by 1300 Sunday 3 July.
(Low pressure tends to produce unsettle, poor
weather - as I write this, it is!). The difference
between the pressures is of interest - in this
case, the relative similarity tells us that the
conditions won't change much.
THE AREA FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (Area forecasts run clockwise.) - See the Sea
Areas chart below. This is the detail of the
forecast relevant to the areas mentioned in the
forecast.
VIKING NORTH UTSIRE SOUTH UTSIRE

SOUTHEAST 4 OR 5 INCREASING 6 OR 7
VEERING SOUTH 4 OR 5 LATER. OCCASIONAL
RAIN. GOOD WITH FOG PATCHES BECOMING
MODERATE OR POOR
For the sea areas Viking, North Utsire and South

Utsire. These are located NE of UK.
Wind from the Southeast, windspeed Beaufort
force 4 or 5, increasing to force 6 or 7, veering /
changing in a clockwise direction to the South,
force 4 or 5 but not within the next 12 hours.
Occasional rain.
Visibility will be good / more than 5 nautical
miles, but with patches of fog and becoming
moderate / between 2 and 5 nautical miles or
poor / between 1,000 metres and 2 nautical
miles.
Mike Buckley - UKSEAKAYAKGUIDEBOOK.CO.UK
Inshore Waters Forecast

Example Inshore Waters Forecast - this is
what you'll actually hear during a radio
transmission, or read on a text forecast.
Explanation (See also "Terms used")
Issued by the Met Office at 0500 UTC on Friday

19 August. Inshore Waters Forecast to 12 miles
offshore from 0500 UTC to 0500 UTC.
Time & date of the forecast, and period of

validity.
From Cape Wrath to Rattray Head including

Orkney.
The MSI will cover the Inshore Waters relevant

to the Coastguard Station broadcasting the
forecast. The web based forecasts let you see all
the Inshore Waters areas.
24 hour forecast:
Wind: westerly 3 or 4 becoming variable 3,
becoming northwest 4 near Rattray head by
tomorrow morning.
A bit easier to understand than the Shipping

Forecast, the Inshore Waters forecast always
says what the information relates to. In this
case, the wind is coming from the West,
windspeed Beaufort force 3 or 4 but likely to
vary. In the area near Rattrray Head it'll become
Northwest 4 by tomorrow morning.
Weather: occasional rain or showers, mainly in

the east.
It'll rain a bit in the East.
Visibility: moderate or good, occasionally poor in

the east, with fog patches later in the Moray
Firth.
Visibility will be moderate / between 2 and 5

nautical miles or good / more than 5 nautical
miles, but with patches of fog, and poor /
between 1,000 metres and 2 nautical miles in
the Moray Firth area.
Sea State: smooth or slight, increasing moderate (As described - see the Beaufort Scale for more
or rough between Cape Wrath and Orkney, and
detail)
near Rattray Head.
Outlook for the following 24 hours:

The forecast then gives the outlook for the
Wind: north or northwest 3 or 4, becoming
following 24 hours, using the same format.
variable 2 or 3 for a time then south 3 or 4
overnight.
Weather: patchy rain in east, and later near
Cape Wrath.
Visibility: moderate or good, occasionally poor in
the east at first with fog patches.
Sea State: slight or moderate, occasionally rough
at first along the north coast.
Description of the terms used in the forecasts.

Term used
Definition
Gale Warnings
Gale
Winds of at least Beaufort Scale force 8 (34-40

knots) or gusts reaching 43-51 knots
Severe gale
Winds of force 9 (41-47 knots) or gusts reaching

52-60 knots
Storm
Winds of force 10 (48-55 knots) or gusts

reaching 61-68 knots
Violent storm
Winds of force 11 (56-63 knots) or gusts of 69

knots or more
Hurricane force
Winds of force 12 (64 knots or more)

Note: The term used is 'hurricane force'; the
term 'hurricane' on its own means a true tropical
cyclone, not experienced in British waters.
Timescales
Imminent
Expected within six hours of time of issue
Soon
Expected within six to 12 hours of time of issue
Later
Expected more than 12 hours from time of issue
Visibility
Fog
Visibility less than 1,000 metres
Poor
Visibility between 1,000 metres and 2 nautical

miles
Moderate
Visibility between 2 and 5 nautical miles
Good
Visibility more than 5 nautical miles
Movement of pressure systems

Slowly
Moving at less than 15 knots
Steadily
Moving at 15 to 25 knots
Rather Quickly
Rapidly
Very Rapidly
Moving at more than 45 knots
Pressure tendency in station reports

Rising (or falling) slowly
Pressure change of 0.1 to 1.5 hPa in the

preceding three hours
Rising (or falling)

Rising (or falling) quickly

Rising (or falling) v. rapidly
Pressure change of more than 6.0 hPa in the

Now rising (or falling)
Pressure has been falling (rising) or steady in the

preceding three hours, but at the time of
observation was definitely rising (falling)
Note: For those more familiar with the millibar, 1
hPa = 1 mb
Wind
Wind direction
Indicates the direction from which the wind is

blowing - see this Factsheet on understanding
wind direction.
Becoming cyclonic
Indicates that there will be considerable change

in wind direction across the path of a depression
within the forecast area
Veering
The changing of the wind direction clockwise,

e.g. SW to W
Backing
The changing of the wind in the opposite

direction to veering (anticlockwise), e.g. SE to
NE
UK Shipping Forecast Areas (Map image from Met Office)
Uk Inshore Waters Forecast Areas (Map image from Met Office)

Understanding Forecasts

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UNDERSTANDING THE SHIPPING AND INSHORE WATERS FORECASTS

Shipping Area Forecast

Explanation (See also "Terms used")

THE SHIPPING FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MET

Time & date of the forecast.

THERE ARE WARNINGS OF GALES IN SHANNON

Any Gale Warnings are issued first, with details

THE GENERAL SYNOPSIS AT 1300

This is a general overview - at 1300 there is a

VIKING NORTH UTSIRE SOUTH UTSIRE

For the sea areas Viking, North Utsire and South

Mike Buckley - UKSEAKAYAKGUIDEBOOK.CO.UK

Inshore Waters Forecast

Explanation (See also "Terms used")

Issued by the Met Office at 0500 UTC on Friday

Time & date of the forecast, and period of

From Cape Wrath to Rattray Head including

The MSI will cover the Inshore Waters relevant

A bit easier to understand than the Shipping

Weather: occasional rain or showers, mainly in

It'll rain a bit in the East.

Visibility: moderate or good, occasionally poor in

Visibility will be moderate / between 2 and 5

Outlook for the following 24 hours:

Mike Buckley - UKSEAKAYAKGUIDEBOOK.CO.UK

Description of the terms used in the forecasts.

Winds of at least Beaufort Scale force 8 (34-40

Winds of force 9 (41-47 knots) or gusts reaching

Winds of force 10 (48-55 knots) or gusts

Winds of force 11 (56-63 knots) or gusts of 69

Winds of force 12 (64 knots or more)

Expected within six hours of time of issue

Expected within six to 12 hours of time of issue

Expected more than 12 hours from time of issue

Visibility less than 1,000 metres

Visibility between 1,000 metres and 2 nautical

Visibility between 2 and 5 nautical miles

Visibility more than 5 nautical miles

Movement of pressure systems

Moving at less than 15 knots

Mike Buckley - UKSEAKAYAKGUIDEBOOK.CO.UK

Moving at more than 45 knots

Pressure tendency in station reports

Pressure change of 0.1 to 1.5 hPa in the

Rising (or falling)

Pressure change of 1.6 to 3.5 hPa in the

Rising (or falling) quickly

Pressure change of 3.6 to 6.0 hPa in the

Rising (or falling) v. rapidly

Pressure change of more than 6.0 hPa in the

Now rising (or falling)

Pressure has been falling (rising) or steady in the

Indicates the direction from which the wind is

Indicates that there will be considerable change

The changing of the wind direction clockwise,

The changing of the wind in the opposite

Mike Buckley - UKSEAKAYAKGUIDEBOOK.CO.UK

UK Shipping Forecast Areas (Map image from Met Office)

Mike Buckley - UKSEAKAYAKGUIDEBOOK.CO.UK