2009 Smart Grid System Report PDF
2009 Smart Grid System Report PDF
System Report
U.S. Department of Energy
July 2009
SEC. 1302.
SMART GRID SYSTEM REPORT
The Secretary, acting through the Assistant Secretary of the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy
Reliability (referred to in this section as the OEDER) and through the Smart Grid Task Force
established in section 1303, shall, after consulting with any interested individual or entity as
appropriate, no later than one year after enactment and every two years thereafter, report to Congress
concerning the status of smart grid deployments nationwide and any regulatory or government barriers
to continued deployment. The report shall provide the current status and prospects of smart grid
development, including information on technology penetration, communications network capabilities,
costs, and obstacles. It may include recommendations for State and Federal policies or actions helpful
to facilitate the transition to a smart grid. To the extent appropriate, it should take a regional
perspective. In preparing this report, the Secretary shall solicit advice and contributions from the
Smart Grid Advisory Committee created in section 1303; from other involved Federal agencies
including but not limited to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (Commission,) the
National Institute of Standards and Technology (Institute), and the Department of Homeland
Security; and from other stakeholder groups not already represented on the Smart Grid Advisory
Committee.
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, December 19, 2007
Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Section 1302 of Title XIII of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 directs the
Secretary of Energy to report to Congress concerning the status of smart grid deployments
nationwide and any regulatory or government barriers to continued deployment. This
document satisfies this directive and represents the first installment of this report to Congress,
which is to be updated biennially.
The state of smart grid deployment covers a broad array of electric system capabilities and
services enabled through pervasive communications and information technology, with the
objective to improve reliability, operating efficiency, resiliency to threats, and our impact to
the environment. By collecting information from a workshop, interviews, and research of
existing smart grid literature and studies, this report attempts to present a balanced view of
progress toward a smart grid across many fronts. The Department of Energy sponsored a
workshop, Implementing the Smart Grid, that engaged stakeholders from utilities,
reliability coordinators, electricity market operators, end users, suppliers, trade organizations,
and state and federal regulators, as well as the National Institute of Standards and Technology
and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The workshops outcomes provide a
foundation for the metrics identified in this report. In addition, the Departments Energy
Advisory Committee and their Smart Grid Subcommittee were consulted along with the
inter-agency Smart Grid Task Force that includes representatives from NIST, FERC, the
Department of Homeland Security, and the Environmental Protection Agency among others.
While future reports will improve the measurement and perspective of this progress, the
investigation done for this first report reveals the following key findings.
Key Findings
Distributed energy resources: The ability to connect distributed generation, storage,
and renewable resources is becoming more standardized and cost effective. While the
penetration level remains low, the area is experiencing high growth. Several other
concepts associated with a smart grid are in a nascent phase of deployment these
include the integration of microgrids, electric vehicles, and demand response initiatives,
including grid-sensitive appliances.
Electricity infrastructure: Those smart grid areas that fit within the traditional
electricity utility business and policy model have a history of automation and advanced
communication deployment to build upon. Advanced metering infrastructure is taking
automated meter reading approaches to a new level, and is seen as a necessary step to
enabling dynamic pricing and consumer participation mechanisms. Though
penetration of these systems is still low, the growth and attention by businesses and
policymakers is strong. Transmission substation automation remains strong with
greater levels of information exchanged with control centers. Cost/benefit thresholds
are now encouraging greater levels of automation at the distribution substation level.
While reliability indices show some slight degradation, generation and electricity
transport efficiencies are improving.
Business and policy: The business cases, financial resources, paths to deployment, and
models for enabling governmental policy are only now emerging with experimentation.
This is true of the regulated and non-regulated aspects of the electric system.
Understanding and articulating the environmental and consumer perspectives also
iii
remains in its infancy, though recent reports and deliberations indicate that significant
attention is beginning to be given to these issues.
High-tech culture change: A smart grid is socially transformational. As with the
Internet or cell phone communications, our experience with electricity will change
dramatically. To successfully integrate high levels of automation requires cultural
change. The integration of automation systems within and between the electricity
delivery infrastructure, distributed resources, and end-use systems needs to evolve from
specialized interfaces to embrace solutions that recognize well-accepted principles,
methodology, and tools that are commonly recognized by communications, information
technology, and related disciplines that enable interactions within all economic sectors
and individual businesses. The solutions to improving physical and cyber security,
information privacy, and interoperability (conveniently connect and work within a
collaborative system) require disciplines and best practices that are subscribed to by all
stakeholders. A cross-disciplinary change that instills greater interaction among all the
stakeholders is a necessary characteristic as we advance toward a smart grid. Progress in
areas such as cyber security and interoperability is immature and difficult to measure,
though improved approaches for future measurements are proposed.
Some aspect of
the electricity
system touches
every person in
the Nation.
management of the generation and delivery infrastructure at the various levels of system
coordination (e.g., transmission and distribution control centers, regional reliability
coordination centers, national emergency response centers),
the information networks themselves (e.g., remote measurement and control
communications networks, inter- and intra-enterprise communications, public
Internet), and
the financial and regulatory environment that fuels investment and motivates
decision makers to procure, implement, and maintain all aspects of the system
(e.g., stock and bond markets, government incentives, regulated or non-regulated
rate-of-return on investment).
(1) Items in parentheses such as this indicate source material listed in Section 6.0 References.
iv
Executive Summary
Some aspect of the electricity system touches every person in the Nation. The stakeholder
landscape for a smart-grid is complex. The lines of distinction are not always crisp, as
corporations and other organizations can take on the characteristics and responsibilities of
multiple functions. Stakeholders include the following: end users (consumers), electricservice retailers, distribution and transmission service providers, balancing authorities,
wholesale-electricity traders/brokers/markets, reliability coordinators, product and service
suppliers, energy policymakers, regulators, and advocates, standards organizations, and the
financial community.
The approach is
to identify key
indicators that can
provide a sense of
smart-grid progress
while balancing
detail and
complexity.
Besides describing the 20 metrics, the table summarizes a broad indication of the penetration
level (if a build metric) or maturity level (if a value metric), as well as the trending direction.
Build metrics describe attributes that are built in support of a smart grid, while value metrics
describe the value that may derive from achieving a smart grid. While build metrics tend
to be quantifiable, value metrics can be influenced by many developments and therefore
generally require more qualifying discussion. The indication levels used in the table for build
metrics refer to level of penetration: nascent (very low and just emerging), low, or moderate.
Because smart grid activity is relatively new, there are no high penetration levels to report on
these metrics. The value metrics indicate whether the present state is nascent or mature. The
trend (recent past and near-term projection) is indicated for either type of metric as declining,
flat, or growing at nascent, low, moderate, or high, levels.
As smart-grid concerns are future-looking, several of the metrics represent areas where
deployment activities are just being explored. Finding baseline status information for these
areas is difficult. This is the case with several metrics in the Distributed Resource Technology
area and Information Networks. Microgrids, electric or hybrid vehicles, and grid-responsive,
non-generating demand-side equipment fall into this category. In the Delivery Infrastructure
area, dynamic line limit technology deployment is also emerging; though the concept and
pilots have been around for several years, the value proposition keeps it at the nascent level.
Cyber security and open architecture/standards metrics are also listed as nascent. Even
though attention is being paid to these areas, the application of a disciplined approach to
cyber security and interoperability issues is new. A development and operational culture that
addresses these concerns needs to mature and better methods are needed to measure progress.
Other smart-grid metrics are in areas that have been receiving attention for several years, and
while the technology deployment may be low or moderate, implementation paths have had
v
time to mature. The area of Delivery (T&D) Infrastructure is a good example. Substation
automation has a long history of progress in the transmission area and is now beginning to
penetrate the distribution system. Advanced metering infrastructure has a low level of
penetration today, but the attention given to this area by utilities and regulators has resulted
in significant investments with large near-term deployment growth projections. Though not
as dramatic, advanced measurement systems, such as synchro-phasor technology deployment,
are also growing.
Venture capital
funding of startups
grew at an average
annual rate of 27%
In the Area, Regional, and National Coordination area, the metrics indicate a moderate level
of activity, though the penetration level is low and regional progress is diverse. Policy makers
are naturally cautious in making dynamic-pricing and rate-recovery decisions as value
propositions remain immature, untested, and therefore, risky. Distributed-resource
interconnection rules and procedures vary significantly across different service regions.
Distributed energy resources, including renewable and non-renewable generation, storage,
and grid-responsive load are being integrated, but at low penetration level.
The report monitors the following value metrics that pertain to the Delivery Infrastructure
area: reliability, capacity, operating efficiency, and power quality. While operating efficiency
has seen some improvement,the trends for the other indices have been flat or deteriorating
over recent history. Though these values are difficult to cleanly associate with steps toward a
smart grid, we expect improvement of these trends.
To convey the present situation of smart-grid deployment, the report uses a set of six
characteristics derived from the seven characteristics of the National Energy Technology
Laboratory (NETL) Modern Grid Strategy project and documented in Characteristics of the
Modern Grid (NETL 2008).(1) The metrics listed in Table ES.1 provide insights into
progress toward these characteristics. Nearly all of the metrics contribute information to
understanding multiple characteristics. The main findings are summarized below:
Enables Informed Participation by Customers: Supporting the bi-directional flow of
information and energy is a foundation for enabling participation by consumer
resources. Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) is receiving the most attention in
terms of planning and investment. Currently AMI comprises about 4.7% of all electric
meters being used for demand response. Approximately 52 million more meters are
projected to be installed by 2012. A large number of the meters installed are not being
used for demand response activities [Metric 12]. Pricing signals can provide valuable
information for consumers (and the automation systems that reflect their preferences)
to decide on how to react to grid conditions. A FERC study found that in 2008
slightly over 1% of all customers received a dynamic pricing tariff [Metric 1], with
nearly the entire amount represented by time-of-use tariffs. Lastly, the amount of load
participating based on grid conditions is beginning to show a shift from traditional
interruptible demand at industrial plants toward demand-response programs that either
allow an energy-service provider to perform direct load control or provide financial
incentives for customer-responsive demand at homes and businesses [Metric 5].
Accommodates All Generation and Storage Options: Distributed energy resources
and interconnection standards to accommodate generation capacity appear to be
moving in positive directions. Accommodating a large number of disparate generation
and storage resources requires anticipation of intermittency and unavailability, while
balancing costs, reliability, and environmental emissions. Distributed generation
(carbon-based and renewable) and storage, although a small fraction (1.6%) of total
(1) The sixth characteristic is a merger of the Modern Grid Initiatives characteristics a) Self- Heals and b) Resists
Attack. The same metrics substantially contribute to both of these concerns.
vi
Executive Summary
summer peak, appear to be increasing rapidly [Metric 7]. In addition, 31 states have
interconnection standards in place, with 11 states progressing toward a standard, one
state with some elements in place, and only 8 states with none. Unfortunately, only
15 states had interconnection standards that were deemed to be favorable to the
integration of these resources [Metric 3].
Enables New Products, Services, and Markets: Companies with new smart-grid
concepts are receiving a significant injection of money. Venture-capital funding of
startups grew from $58.4 million in 2002 to $194.1 million in 2007, yielding an
average annual rate increase of 27% [Metric 20]. Electric utilities are finding some
incentives from regulatory rulings that allow them rate recovery for smart-grid
investments [Metric 4]. Some of these rulings have allowed AMI deployments to move
forward and more information is being obtained to characterize the consumer benefits
from the emerging new products and services. Great interest and investment in electric
vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, is changing the future complexion of transportation
and represents a significant demand for new products and services, including
bi-directional information flow as being supported in AMI systems and smart charging
systems. Today only 0.02% of light-duty vehicles are grid-connected, but most
forecasts estimate ultimate penetration of this market at 8-16%, with some aggressive
estimates at 37%, by 2020 [Metric 8]. A smart grid will also include consumeroriented smart equipment, such as thermostats, space heaters, clothes dryers, and
water heaters that communicate to enable demand participation. This smart equipment
and related demand participation program offerings are just emerging, primarily in
pilot programs [Metric 9].
Provides the Power Quality for the Range of Needs: Not all customers have the same
power-quality requirements, though traditionally these requirements and the costs to
provide them have been shared. While the state of power quality has been difficult to
quantify, the number of customer complaints has been rising slightly [Metric 17].
Smart grid solutions range from local control of your power needs in a microgrid
[Metric 6] and supporting distributed generation [Metric 7], to more intelligent
operation of the delivery system through technology such as is used in substation
automation [Metric 11] (see next bullet). As mentioned earlier, distributed energy
resource deployment is trending upward, while microgrid parks are just emerging and
are mostly represented in pilot programs.
Optimizes Asset Utilization and Operating Efficiently: Gross annual measures of
operating efficiency have been improving slightly as energy lost in generation dropped
0.6 % to 67.7% in 2007 and transmission and distribution losses also improved slightly
[Metric 15]. The summer peak capacity factor declined slightly to 80.8% while overall
annual average capacity factor is projected to increase slightly to 46.5% [Metric 14].
Contributions to these measures include substation automation deployments. While
transmission substations have considerable instrumentation and coordination, the value
proposition for distribution-substation automation is now receiving more attention.
Presently about 31% of substations have some form of automation, with the number
expected to rise to 40% by 2010 [Metric 11]. The deployment of dynamic line rating
technology is also expected to increase asset utilization and operating efficiency;
however, implementations thus far have had very limited penetration levels [Metric 16].
Operates Resiliently to Disturbances, Attacks, and Natural Disasters: The national
averages for reliability indices (outage duration and frequency measures SAIDI, SAIFI,
and MAIFI) appear to be trending upward [Metric 10]. Smart-grid directions, such as
demand-side resource and distributed-generation participation in system operations
vii
discussed in the first two bullets are expected to more elegantly respond to disturbances
and emergencies. Within the delivery-system field operations, substation automation
(discussed in the previous bullet) is showing progress [Metric 11]. At the regional
system operations level, advanced measurement equipment is being deployed within the
delivery infrastructure to support situational awareness and enhance reliability
coordination. Deployment numbers for one technology, synchro-phasor
measurements, have increased from 100 units in 2006 to roughly 150 in 2008.
Lastly, cyber-security challenges are beginning to be addressed with a more disciplined
approach. NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection security assessments are more
common with about 95% of companies interviewed for this report indicating that
they have conducted at least one security assessment of their operations [Metric 18].
This characteristic is a merger of the Modern Grid Initiatives characteristics a) SelfHeals and b) Resists Attack. The same metrics substantially contribute to both of
these concerns.
Different areas of the country have distinctions with regard to their generation resources, their
business economy, climate, topography, environmental concerns, and public policy. These
distinctions influence the picture for smart-grid deployment in each region, provide different
incentives, and pose different obstacles for development. Where appropriate, the report
discusses progress and issues associated with the state of smart-grid deployment measures
on a regional basis.
A smart grid
challenge is the
uncertainty of the
path that its development will take.
Among the significant challenges facing development of a smart grid are the cost of
implementing a smart grid, with estimates for just the electric utility advanced metering
capability ranging up to $27 billion (Kuhn 2008), and the regulations that allow recovery of
such investments. For perspective, the Brattle Group estimates that it may take as much as
$1.5 trillion to update the grid by 2030 (Chupka et al. 2008). Ensuring interoperability
of smart-grid standards is another hurdle state and federal regulators will need to leap.
Major technical barriers include developing economical storage systems; these storage systems
can help solve other technical challenges, such as integrating distributed renewable-energy
sources with the grid, addressing power-quality problems that would otherwise exacerbate
the situation, and enhancing asset utilization. Without a smart grid, high penetrations of
variable renewable resources may become more difficult and expensive to manage due to the
greater need to coordinate these resources with dispatchable generation and demand.
Another challenge facing a smart grid is the uncertainty of the path that its development will
take over time with changing technology, changing energy mixes, changing energy policy, and
developing climate change policy. Trying to legislate or regulate the development of a smart
grid or its related technologies can severely diminish the benefits of the virtual, flexible, and
transparent energy market it strives to provide. Conversely, with the entire nations energy grid
potentially at risk, some may see the introduction of a smart grid in the United States as too
important to allow laissez-faire evolution. Thus, the challenge of development becomes an
issue of providing flexible regulation that leverages desired and developing technology through
goal-directed and business-case-supported policy that promotes a positive economic outcome.
Executive Summary
Report Content
The Smart-Grid System Report is organized into a main body and two supporting annexes.
The main body discusses the metrics chosen to provide insight into the progress of smart-grid
deployment nationally. The measurements resulting from research into the metrics are used to
convey the state of smart-grid progress according to six characteristics derived from the NETL
Modern Grid Strategys work in this area. The main body of the report concludes with a
summary of the challenges to smart-grid deployment including technical, business and
financial challenges.
The first of two annexes presents a discussion of each of the metrics chosen to help measure
the progress of smart-grid deployment. The second summarizes the results of interviews
with 21 electricity-service providers chosen to represent a cross-section of the nation in
terms of size, location, and type of organization (e.g., public or private company, rural
electric cooperative, etc.). The interview questions were designed to support many of the
identified metrics and the results are incorporated into the metric write-ups to support
measurement estimates.
ix
Metric Title
Type
Penetration/
Maturity
Trend
low
moderate
moderate
moderate
moderate
moderate
low
moderate
low
low
nascent
low
low
high
nascent
low
nascent
low
build
build
build
build
build
build
build
build
build
Distributed-Energy-Resource Technology
value
mature
declining
11
build
moderate
high
12
build
low
high
13
build
low
moderate
14
value
mature
flat
15
value
mature
improving
16
build
nascent
low
17
value
mature
declining
18
build
nascent
nascent
19
build
nascent
nascent
20
Venture Capital: total annual venture-capital funding of smartgrid startups located in the U.S.
value
nascent
high
CA
CAIDI
CBL
CHP
CIP
CPP
CPUC
Control Area
Customer Average Interruption Duration Index
customer baseline load
combined heat and power
critical infrastructure protection
critical peak pricing
California Public Utilities Commission
DC
DER
DG
DLR
DMS
DOE
District of Columbia
distributed energy resources
distributed generation
dynamic line ratings
distribution management systems
Department of Energy
eGRID
EIA
EIOC
EMS
EPA
EPAct
EPRI
ERCOT
EV
FERC
GW
GWAC
HAN
IED
IEEE
IOU
ISO
IT
KVAR
kWh
KilovoltAmpere Reactive
kilowatt-hours
LBNL
xi
xii
MAIFI
MDMS
MW
MWh
NASPI
NERC
NETL
NIST
NRDC
OEM
OWL
PG&E
PHEV
PMU
PQ
PSC
PUC
RCC
RFC
RFP
RTO
RTP
SAIDI
SAIFI
SCADA
SDG&E
SERC
SPP
T&D
TCP
TOU
TW
TWh
UML
VAR
volt-amps reactive
WAMS
WECC
XML
Contents
Contents
Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... iii
Acronyms and Abbreviations ...........................................................................................xi
1.0 Introduction . ............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Objectives............................................................................................................. 1
xiii
xiv
Contents
Figures
1.1 Scope of Smart-Grid Concerns.................................................................................. 2
1.2 Stakeholder Landscape............................................................................................... 4
1.3 United States Portions of NERC Region Representation Map.................................. 5
1.4 EPA eGRID Subregion Representational Map.......................................................... 6
3.1 Overview of AMI Interface...................................................................................... 14
3.2 Demand Response by NERC Region...................................................................... 17
3.3 Yearly Installed DG Capacity by Technology Type.................................................. 19
3.4 Projected DG Capacity in GW................................................................................ 21
3.5 State Interconnection Standards............................................................................... 22
3.6 Favorability of State Interconnection Standards....................................................... 22
3.7 Venture-Capital Funding of Smart-Grid Startups.................................................... 25
3.8 Interoperability Categories....................................................................................... 30
3.9 Measured and Predicted Peak Summer, Peak Winter,
and Yearly Average Generation Capacity Factors in the U.S.................................... 36
3.10 Generation Efficiency for Various Fossil Fuel Sources over Time............................. 36
3.11 Current/Future Plans for Connecting EMS/SCADA/DMS Systems
to Other Data Systems............................................................................................. 38
3.12 North American Electric Power T&D Automation Expenditures,........................... 39
3.13 Winter Peak Demand for the Contiguous U.S........................................................ 39
3.14 Electricity Flow Diagram 2007................................................................................ 40
3.15 Current/Future Plans for Connecting EMS/SCADA/DMS Systems
to Other Data Systems............................................................................................. 42
3.16 Networked Phasor Measurement Units in the North American Power Grid........... 43
3.17 Trends for 55 Utilities Providing Data Between 2000-2005.................................... 45
xv
Tables
2.1 Summary of Smart Grid Metrics and Status.............................................................. 8
2.2 Smart-Grid Characteristics....................................................................................... 10
2.3 Map of Metrics to Smart-Grid Characteristics......................................................... 11
3.1 Number of Entities Offering and Customers Served
by Dynamic Pricing Tariffs...................................................................................... 15
3.2 Capacity of Distributed Generators by Technology Type 2004 and 2008................ 20
3.3 EV and PHEV Market Penetration.......................................................................... 27
3.4 Capacity of Microgrids in 2005 .............................................................................. 34
3.5 Entities Offering Load-Management and Demand-Response Programs.................. 35
3.6 Measured and Projected Peak Demands and Generation Capacities
for Recent Years in the U.S., and Calculated Capacity Factors................................. 37
3.7 Summary of the NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection Standards...................... 47
3.8 Sample Security Question from Service Provider Interviews.................................... 47
xvi
1.0 Introduction
1.0 Introduction
Section 1302 of Title XIII of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 directs
the Secretary of Energy to, report to Congress concerning the status of smart grid
deployments nationwide and any regulatory or government barriers to continued
deployment. The first report is to occur no later than one year after enactment. This
is the first installment of this report to Congress, which is to be updated biennially.
Please note that this report does not include impacts related to the American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
1.1 Objectives
The objective of Title XIII is to support the modernization of the Nations electricity system to
maintain a reliable and secure infrastructure that can meet future load growth and achieve the
characteristics of a smart grid. The Smart Grid System Report is to provide the current status
of smart-grid development, the prospects for its future, and the obstacles to progress. In
addition to providing the state of smart-grid deployments, the legislation includes the
following requirements:
1. report the prospects of smart-grid development including costs and obstacles;
2. identify regulatory or government barriers;
3. may provide recommendations for state and federal policies or actions; and
4. take a regional perspective.
In the process of developing this report, the advice of the Electricity Advisory Committee
and its Subcommittee on Smart Grid has been solicited, in addition to the advice from the
Federal Smart Grid Task Force, an inter-agency group that includes representation from U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE), Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), National
Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), U.S. Department of Homeland Security
(DHS), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and other involved federal agencies.
As the first in a series of biennial smart-grid status reports, aspects of this report are expected
to form the framework for future reports. However, such future reports will be able to go into
greater assessment detail using this framework and measure smart-grid-related progress based
on the baseline established in this report.
A smart grid uses digital technology to improve reliability, security, and efficiency of the
electric system. Due to the vast number of stakeholders and their various perspectives, there
has been debate on a definition of a smart grid that addresses the special emphasis desired by
each participant. To define the scope of a smart grid for this report, we reviewed application
areas throughout the electric system related to dynamic optimization of system operations,
maintenance, and planning. Figure 1.1 provides a pictorial view of the many aspects of the
electric system touched by smart grid concerns.
The following areas arguably represent a reasonable partitioning of the electric system that
covers the scope of smart grid concerns. To describe the progress being made in moving
toward a smart grid, one must also consider the interfaces between elements within each area
and the systemic issues that transcend areas. The areas of the electric system that cover the
scope of a smart grid include the following:
Area, regional and national coordination regimes: A series of interrelated,
hierarchical coordination functions exists for the economic and reliable operation of
the electric system. These include balancing areas, independent system operators
(ISOs), regional transmission operators (RTOs), electricity market operations, and
government emergency-operation centers. Smart-grid elements in this area include
collecting measurements from across the system to determine system state and health,
and coordinating actions to enhance economic efficiency, reliability, environmental
compliance, or response to disturbances.
Distributed-energy resource technology: Arguably, the largest new frontier for
smart grid advancements, this area includes the integration of distributed-generation,
storage, and demand-side resources for participation in electric-system operation.
Consumer products such as smart appliances and electric vehicles are expected to
1.0 Introduction
Supporting Organizations
Product and service suppliers
Policymakers and regulators
Operational Stakeholders
Policy advocates
Standards organizations
Financial community
Gen/Load
Wholesalers
Wholesale
Market Operators
Energy Service
Retailers
End Users:
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
Transmission
Providers
Reliability
Coordinators
Distribution
Providers
Balancing
Authorities
NERC
crisp, as corporations and other organizations can take on the characteristics and
responsibilities of multiple functions.
Stakeholders include the following:
end users (consumers): industrial, commercial, residential
electric-service retailers: regulated and unregulated electricity and other service
providers (including service and resource aggregators)
distribution-service providers: generally electric distribution utilities (public and
private)
transmission providers: generally electric transmission owners and operators
(public and private)
balancing authorities
generation and demand wholesale-electricity traders/brokers
wholesale market operators
reliability coordinators including North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC)
products and services suppliers including information technology (IT) and
communications
local, state, and federal energy policymakers (regulators, legislators, executives, and
related offices)
1.0 Introduction
Different regions
will deploy smart
grid capabilities to
varying degrees.
The main body of the report is supported by two annexes. The first presents a discussion of
each of the metrics chosen to help measure the progress of smart-grid deployment. The
second summarizes the results of interviews with 21 electricity-service providers chosen to
represent a cross section of the nation in terms of size, location, and type of organization
(e.g., public or private company, rural electric cooperative, etc.). The interview questions were
designed to support many of the identified metrics and the results are incorporated into the
metric write-ups to support measurement estimates.
As mentioned earlier, throughout this discussion, special concerns of stakeholders and
regional influences are described. As this is the first edition of this biennial report to
Congress, recommendations for further investigation and improvements for future
reports are also provided.
Metric Title
Type
Penetration/
Maturity
Trend
low
moderate
moderate
moderate
moderate
moderate
low
moderate
low
low
nascent
low
low
high
nascent
low
nascent
low
build
build
build
build
build
build
build
build
build
10
value
mature
declining
11
build
moderate
high
12
build
low
high
13
build
low
moderate
14
value
mature
flat
15
value
mature
improving
16
build
nascent
low
17
value
mature
declining
nascent
nascent
nascent
nascent
nascent
high
Distributed-Energy-Resource Technology
18
build
19
build
20
Venture Capital: total annual venture-capital funding of smartgrid startups located in the U.S.
value
The table includes two columns to indicate the metrics state (penetration level/maturity) and
trend. The intent is to provide a high level, simplified perspective to a complicated picture. If it
is a build metric, the penetration level is indicated as nascent (very low and just emerging), low,
or moderate. Because smart grid activity is relatively new, there are no high penetration levels to
report on these metrics. If it is a value metric, the maturity of the system with respect to this
metric is indicated as either nascent or mature. The trend (recent past and near-term projection)
is indicated for either type of metric as declining, flat, or growing at nascent, low, moderate, or
high, levels.
Other observations about selecting metrics follow:
Metrics can be combined in various ways to provide potentially interesting insights into
smart-grid progress. The same metric is used multiple times in this report to explain
progress with respect to smart grid characteristics.
The selection process strove to identify fundamental metrics that can support more
complex combinations.
Metrics can be
combined in various
ways to provide
potentially interesting insights into
smart-grid progress.
Though the list of metrics is flat, headings are used to group metrics into logically-related
areas that support balanced coverage of smart-grid concerns.
For each metric, serious consideration is required regarding how measurements can be
obtained. In some situations (particularly with value metrics), qualifying statements tend
to dominate how a smart grid may influence the measurement.
Wherever appropriate, metrics should be expressed on a proportional basis.
Description
1.
Enables Informed
Consumers become an integral part of the electric power system. They help
Participation by Customers balance supply and demand and ensure reliability by modifying the way
they use and purchase electricity. These modifications come as a result of
consumers having choices that motivate different purchasing patterns and
behavior. These choices involve new technologies, new information about
their electricity use, and new forms of electricity pricing and incentives.
2.
Accommodates All
Generation and
Storage Options
A smart grid accommodates not only large, centralized power plants, but
also the growing array of distributed energy resources (DER). DER
integration will increase rapidly all along the value chain, from suppliers to
marketers to customers. Those distributed resources will be diverse and
widespread, including renewables, distributed generation and energy storage.
3.
4.
Not all commercial enterprises, and certainly not all residential customers,
need the same quality of power. A smart grid supplies varying grades of
power and supports variable pricing accordingly. The cost of premium
power-quality (PQ) features can be included in the electrical service
contract. Advanced control methods monitor essential components,
enabling rapid diagnosis and precise solutions to PQ events, such as arise
from lightning, switching surges, line faults and harmonic sources. A smart
grid also helps buffer the electrical system from irregularities caused by
consumer electronic loads.
5.
Optimizes Asset Utilization A smart grid applies the latest technologies to optimize the use of its assets.
& Operating Efficiency
For example, optimized capacity can be attainable with dynamic ratings,
which allow assets to be used at greater loads by continuously sensing and
rating their capacities. Maintenance efficiency involves attaining a reliable
state of equipment or optimized condition. This state is attainable with
condition-based maintenance, which signals the need for equipment
maintenance at precisely the right time. System-control devices can be
adjusted to reduce losses and eliminate congestion. Operating efficiency
increases when selecting the least-cost energy-delivery system available
through these adjustments of system-control devices.
6.
Operates Resiliently to
Disturbances, Attacks, &
Natural Disasters
10
characteristic for emphasis. The table indicates the characteristic where a metric is emphasized
as emphasis. The other characteristic cells where a metric plays an important role are
indicated by mention. This should not be interpreted to be of secondary importance, only
that a metric finding is mentioned under that characteristic in order to reduce redundancy of
material in explaining the status of smart grid deployment.
The interviews with 21 electric-service providers also provide insight into a measure of the
metrics and how they relate to the smart-grid characteristics. The interview questions were
designed to gather information related to the metrics of interest. The interview results are
presented in Annex B and the information gained from these interviews is woven into the
metric write-ups in Annex A as well as the smart-grid status descriptions presented for each
characteristic in the next section.
Table 2.3. Map of Metrics to Smart-Grid Characteristics
Metric
No.
Metric Name
Enables
Informed
Participation
by Customers
Accommodates All
Generation &
Storage
Options
Enables New
Products,
Services, &
Markets
Emphasis
Mention
Mention
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Provides
Power Quality
for the Range
of Needs
Optimizes
Asset
Utilization &
Efficient
Operation
Dynamic Pricing
DER Interconnection
Regulatory Policy
Load Participation
Microgrids
DG & Storage
8
9
10
T&D Reliability
11
T&D Automation
12
Advanced Meters
13
Advanced Sensors
Mention
14
Capacity Factors
Emphasis
15
Emphasis
16
17
Power Quality
18
Cyber Security
19
Open Architecture/Stds
Emphasis
20
Venture Capital
Emphasis
Operates
Resiliently to
Disturbances,
Attacks, &
Natural
Disasters
Mention
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Emphasis
Emphasis
Mention
Mention
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Mention
Electric Vehicles
Mention
Mention
Emphasis
Grid-responsive Load
Mention
Mention
Mention
Mention
Mention
Mention
Mention
Mention
Mention
Mention
Emphasis
Emphasis
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Mention
Emphasis
Mention
Emphasis
Emphasis
11
12
Related Metrics
1*, 3, 5*, 7, 8, 9, 12*
13
Home Area
Network
Load Control
Devices
Smart Meter
Distribution
Mgmt System
Consumer
Portal Layer
DMS
Gateway
Operations
Metering
Layer
Communications
Layer
DER
Local Area
Network
AMI Interface
Load Control
Devices
Smart Meter
Communications
MDMS
Customer
Service
One recent experiment that focused on the smart device concept in combination with
smart-grid technologies and dynamic pricing was conducted in the Olympic Peninsula of
Washington State by the U.S. Department of Energy (Hammerstrom 2007). In the
experiment, thermostats, washers, dryers, and water heaters were fitted with smart gridresponsive equipment and were programmed to respond to peak loads. The results of the
experiment were promising; the smart devices reduced load fluctuations, decreased peak loads,
and significantly reduced energy costs.
The technology exists today to implement grid-responsive equipment. Industrial plants and
modern, large commercial buildings are generally well-equipped to respond to incentives to
change their demand because they have energy management systems. However, in residences
and small commercial buildings, there is little supporting installed technology to
communicate to the equipment, though products are emerging.
A primary issue to increasing demand participation in electric system operations centers on
incentive offerings. Smart grid related technology, such as advanced meters, has enabled
dynamic pricing programs implemented across the U.S. [Metric 1]. Generally, these tariffs
take the following forms:
Increasing demand
participation in
electric system
operations centers
on incentive
offerings.
Time of use (TOU). Under TOU, prices are differentiated based solely on a peak
versus off-peak period designation, with prices set higher during peak periods. TOU
pricing is not dynamic because it does not vary based on real-time conditions. It is
included here though because it is viewed as an intermediate step towards a more
dynamic real-time pricing (RTP) tariff.
Critical peak pricing (CPP). Under a CPP tariff, the higher critical peak price is
restricted to a small number of hours (e.g., 100 of 8,760) each year, with the peak price
being set at a much higher level relative to normal conditions.
Real-time pricing (RTP). Under RTP, hourly prices vary based on the day-of (real
time) or day-ahead cost of power to the utility.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission conducted an extensive survey of demand
response and advanced metering initiatives in 2008. The FERC survey was distributed to
3,407 organizations in all 50 states. In total, 100 utilities that responded to the survey
reported offering some form of a real time tariff to enrolled customers (Table 3.1), as
compared to 60 in 2006 (FERC 2008).
FERC also found through its 2008 survey that 315 utilities nationwide offered TOU rates,
compared to 366 in 2006. In those participating utilities, approximately 1.3 million
residential electricity consumers were signed up for TOU tariffs, representing approximately
1.1% of all U.S. customers (Table 3.1). In 2008, customers were enrolled in CPP tariffs
offered by 88 utilities, as compared to 36 in 2006. No studies were found to estimate the
total number of customers served by RTP and CPP tariffs.
Table 3.1. Number of Entities Offering and Customers Served by Dynamic Pricing Tariffs
Method of Pricing
Number of
Entities
100
88
Time of Use
315
Customer Served
Number
Share of Total
1,270,000
1.1%
15
The interviews conducted for this report included 21 companies with an annual peak capacity
of 150,000-175,000 megawatts. The respondents were asked two questions relevant to
dynamic pricing. The first question asked respondents: Do you have dynamic or supply
based price plans?
Seven companies (35 percent) indicated no dynamic price plans were in place.
Twelve companies (60 percent) indicated they had TOU plans.
Three companies (15) percent offered CPP plans.
Seven companies (35 percent) indicated they had both dynamic price plans and the
ability to send price signals to customers.
The respondents were also asked whether their utility had automated response to pricing
signals for major energy using devices within the premises. Responses were as follows:
Nine companies (45 percent) indicated there were none.
Eight companies (40 percent) indicated that automated price signals for major energy
using devices were in the development stage.
Three companies (15 percent) indicated that a small degree of implementation
(10-30 percent of the customer base) had occurred.
Utilities could
realize enormous
cost savings over
the long term.
Smart grid also facilitates the bi-directional flow of energy, enabling customers to generate or
store energy and sell it back to the grid during peak periods when prices are highest to the
utility. For example, solar panels installed on rooftops by homeowners can safely generate
power at a current cost of $10 to $12 per watt. In the future, as electric vehicles (EVs) and
plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) penetrate the U.S. light-duty vehicle market, these
alternative-fuel vehicles could also advance load shifting through their energy storage
capabilities [Metric 8]. Finally, the more than 12 million backup generators operated in the
U.S., representing 200 GW of generating capacity, could also be used to help alleviate peak
load, provide needed system support during emergencies, and lower the cost of power
provided by the utility [Metric 7] (Gilmore and Lake 2007).
Utilities that facilitate the integration of these resources and use them effectively could realize
enormous cost savings over the long term. Most projections show increasing deployment of
these resources, especially in the commercial sector where power quality and reliability are a
serious consideration. Smart grid technologies may be required, along with DG-friendly
regulatory structures, in order to integrate DG technologies.
Consumer participation of DG can be facilitated with agreed upon policies for
interconnection to the grid. A 2008 EPA study found that only 15 states have favorable
interconnection standards, with 12 states being neutral. There are five states classified as
having unfavorable policies towards distributed generation [Metric 3] (EPA 2008).
16
Traditionally, demand participation has principally taken place through interruptible demand
and direct control load management programs implemented and controlled by electricity
suppliers. Nationally, demand-response participation is low. Potential load managed is 1.5%
based on 2008 projections. [Metric 5]. Figure 3.2 shows the aggregate demand response by
type and region in 2006 and 2007. From this graph one sees the general increase in direct
load control, with little or no increase in interruptible demand.
Though dynamic-pricing and demand-response programs have historically been responsible
for modest levels of load shifting, current research suggests that there is significant potential
for the programs to manage supply and demand in the future. For example, a recent study,
sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Edison Electric Institute
(EEI), estimated that 37 percent of the growth in electricity sales (419 TWh) between 2008
and 2030 could be offset through energy-efficiency programs and 52 percent of peak demand
growth (164 GW of capacity) could be offset by a combination of energy-efficiency and
demand-response programs. More specifically, approximately 2,824 MW of peak demand
could be offset by 2010 through price-responsive policies, 13,661 MW of peak demand
could be offset through price response by 2020, and 24,869 MW could be offset by 2030.
The largest share of the price-response benefits are forecast to take place in the residential
sector (10,838 MW or 43.6% of the offset in 2030), with the commercial (8,350 MW or
33.6% of the offset in 2030) and industrial sectors (5,681 MW or 22.8% of the offset)
trailing behind (Richmond et al. 2008).
17
Related Metrics
1, 3*, 6, 7*, 8, 9, 12
18
The primary metrics that measure progress for this characteristic include grid-connected
DG and storage, progress in connecting diverse generation types, and a standard distributedresource-connection policy. There are a number of the other metrics that describe the current
ability of a smart grid to accommodate all generation and storage options.
Distributed generation and interconnection standards to accommodate generation capacity
appear to be moving in positive directions. Distributed-generation (DG) systems are noted
for their smaller-scale local power-generation (10 MVA or less) and distribution systems, and
generally have low installation and maintenance costs. DG includes power generators such as
wind turbines connected at the distribution system level, micro hydro installations, solar
panels, diesel, etc. DG also covers energy-storage devices such as batteries and flywheels
which could be used to store energy produced or purchased during off-peak hours and then
sold or consumed during on-peak hours. Distributed generation, although a small fraction
(1%) of total available summer capacity, appears to be increasing rapidly [Metric 7]. In
addition, 31 states have interconnection standards in place, with 10 states progressing towards
a standard, 1 state with some elements in place, and only 8 states with none. The bad news is
that only 15 states had interconnection standards that were deemed to be favorable to
distributed generation [Metric 3]. More complete details on the metrics discussed in this
section can be found in Annex A.
Another measure that impacts this category is dynamic pricing. In this case, time-of-use
pricing seems to be gaining momentum, at 1.1% of customers served, and real-time tariffs
appear to be slowing increasing. Real-time tariffs would seem to drive the most efficient use
of DG, bringing it on-line when prices are high and using more cost-effective central capacity
when loads are more manageable [Metric 1] (FERC 2006). The use of smart meters, a driving
force behind being able to evaluate grid load and support pricing conditions, has been
increasing significantly, almost tripling between 2006 and 2008 to 19 million meters,
although the increase from 2007 to 2008 was slower [Metric 12]. Grid responsive load is just
beginning to develop with 10% of utilities indicating limited entry into this field, with 45%
saying it is in development and 45% having no plans [Metric 9]. The business case for
microgrids needs to be made [Metric 6] before commercial capacity will be developed.
Currently, universities and petrochemical facilities comprise most of the capacity in
microgrids. However, both grid responsive load and microgrids can play a larger role once
dynamic pricing and interconnection standards are universally available.
Accommodating distributed resources impacts a wide range of stakeholders, including endusers, service providers, regulators, and third-party developers. The interests of these
stakeholders will need to be balanced to ensure appropriate evolution of a smart grid while
improving the cost efficiency of grid resources (DOE/OEDER 2008b). For example, endusers who implement grid-connected distributed-generation devices will directly affect utilities
and service providers whose revenues may decline. Both end-users and service providers must
see recovery of investments in distributed resources, smart meters and other smart-grid
accessories that allow the grid resources and entities to communicate and respond to changing
grid conditions (DOE 2006). Otherwise, end users and service providers will not invest.
The following sections describe distributed generation and storage and interconnection
standards in more detail.
19
0.22 percent of winter peak. Intermittent renewable-energy resources such as wind may not
be effective countermeasures for peak-demand reduction, although solar has the potential to
be more coincident with summer peak-demand periods. Central wind farms are not included
in grid-connected wind DG resources; central wind farms are connected at the transmission
level rather than at the distribution level.
Table 3.2. Capacity of Distributed Generators by Technology Type 2004 to 2006 (count and MW) (DOE/EIA 2009b)
Internal Combustion
Combustion Turbine
Steam Turbine
Hydroelectric
Capacity
Capacity
Capacity
Capacity
Capacity
Number of
Capacity
2,169
1,028
1,086
1,003
137
5,863
5,423
2005
4,024
1,917
1,831
998
994
17,371
9,766
2006
3,625
1,299
2,580
806
1,078
5,044
9,641
2007
4,614
1,964
3,595
1,053
1,427
7,103
12,702
Period
2004
(*)
Total
(*) Distributed generator data in 2005 includes a significant number of generators reported by one respondent that may be for residential
applications.
Note: Distributed generators are commercial and industrial generators that are connected to the grid. They may be installed at or near a customers
site, or at other locations. They may be owned by either the customers of the distribution utility or by the utility. Other Technology includes
generators for which technology is not specified.
Interviews conducted for this report (see Annex B) indicated the following about gridconnected DG:
Grid connected DG was reported by only 0.9 percent of the customers of the
companies interviewed.
Three entities indicated they have some customers with storage capacity which
comprised about 0.3 percent of their total customer base
Non-dispatchable renewable generation was reported by only 1.4% of total customers.
Battery storage continues to pose cost-effectiveness problems by requiring a large degree of
maintenance and adding significantly to the overall costs of building DG systems, and thus
increasing the payback period. PHEVs are unlikely to play a significant role as a storage mode
or as a distributed generator in the near term due to cost considerations. Some forecasts
indicate that it will be at least 2020 before PHEVs hit the market in significant quantities
(DOE/EIA 2008b). Microgrids could eventually provide resource capacity to supplement
low-cost centralized facility power. Currently the number of microgrids is very small but is
expected to grow to 5.5 gigawatts by 2025 [Metric 6].
Forecasts of utility-owned-and-controlled DG capacity indicate DG will reach 5.1 GW by
2010 (DOE/EIA 2007b) (see Figure 3.4). This forecast accounts for only about one-fifth of
total DG based on 2006 data, which indicates the DG had more than 9 GW total. The trend
however, is positive and significant.
20
state and non-state utilities to consider adopting interconnection standards based on Standard
IEEE 1547. IEEE 1547, which was published in 2003, looks strictly at the technical aspects
of distributed generation interconnection, providing a standard that limits the negative
impact of these resources on the grid [Metric 3] (Cook and Haynes 2006). In part to address
some of the permitting aspects of interconnection, the FERC issued FERC Order 2006,
which mandated that all public utilities that own transmission assets provide a standard
connection agreement for small generators (under 20 MW) (FERC 2005).
While compliance with the FERC 2006 order is mandatory for public utilities that own
transmission assets, other utilities have come under similar legislation at the state level. The
progress in developing these laws, however, has been fairly slow. Even states complying with
the mandatory FERC order have taken over two years to enact these relatively simple rules.
States that have taken aggressive action on distributed generation have tended to do so for
other reasons, such as meeting renewable-portfolio standard requirements.
In February 2008, the EPA did a study of the 50 states and the District of Columbia,
assessing their standards for interconnection. They found 31 states with standard
interconnection rules for distributed resources, and 11 additional states in the process of
developing rules (see Figure 3.5). Of these, the EPA found that 55% had standard
interconnection forms, 29% had simplified procedures for smaller systems, 35% had a set
timeline for application approval, and 45% had larger system-size limits (over 10 kW for
residential and over 100 kW for commercial systems) (see Figure 3.6) (EPA 2008b).
By multiplying the percentages above by the number of utilities in each state, it is estimated
that roughly 61% of utilities have a standard interconnection policy in place, and that 84%
of utilities either have a policy in place or will have one soon based on pending legislation
or regulation (DOE/EIA 2002).
21
The EPAs study based its criteria for favorability on whether or not standard forms were in
place, time frames for application approval, insurance requirements, distributed resource sizes
allowable, and interconnection study fees. With these factors considered, only 15 states were
classified as having favorable interconnection standards, with 27 states either being
favorable or neutral. The fact that there are five states with unfavorable policies towards
distributed generation is also cause for concern, although it is worth noting that that these
states are all in the southeast region of the United States perhaps indicating a regional issue.
There are currently about 10 states with new DG interconnection standards under
consideration (AK, DC, IA, ID, IL, KS, MD, SD, TN, and WV). Most projections show
increasing deployment of these resources, especially in the commercial sector where power
quality and power reliability are of increasing concern.
States and regions may have different regulations for the quality of the power being sold or the
way the power is produced. Some states may value DG capacity differently from others and
offer different subsidies and/or taxes based on those values. For example, Oregon state law
has specific plant site emissions standards for minor sources emitting pollutants such as NOx,
SO2, CO, particulate matter (PM), etc. whereas Ohio relies on the Best Available Technology
(BAT) standard with specific limitations for PM and SO2 based on location, generator type,
and size (EEA 2004). The following are further examples of different policies for
interconnection standards:
Only 15 states
were classified as
having favorable
interconnection
standards.
23
maximum potential. Once favorable interconnection standards are completed, DG will have
more opportunity to expand. Currently, less than one-third of (only 15) states have standards
that are favorable to DG and 27 states have interconnection standards that are neutral to
favorable.
Related Metrics
1, 3, 4*, 6, 7, 8*, 9,
12, 17, 19*, 20*
Markets that are correctly designed and operated can efficiently reveal benefit-cost tradeoffs to
consumers by creating an opportunity for competing services to bid. A smart grid accounts
for all of the fundamental dynamics of the value/cost relationship. Some of the independent
grid variables that must be explicitly managed are energy, capacity, location, time, rate of
change, and quality. Markets can play a major role in the management of those variables.
Regulators, owners/operators, and consumers need the flexibility to modify the rules of
business to suit operating and market conditions.
While the primary objectives for implementing a smart grid may encompass environmental,
energy efficiency, and national security goals, the effort falls short if utilities are unable or
unwilling to make an effective business case to regulatory agencies. Smart-grid investments
are often capital intensive, expensive, and include multiple jurisdictions within a utilitys
service area. While smart-grid investments can enable numerous new products (e.g., advanced
meters, solar panels, electric vehicles, and smart appliances) and operational efficiencies (e.g.,
reduced meter reading costs, fewer field visits, enhanced billing accuracy, improved cash flow,
and enhanced response to outages), such benefits may be difficult to quantify and to build
into business cases given the nascent stages in which these technologies often exist, and the
lack of industry standards and best practices for integrating smart-grid technologies.
Because a smart grid holds great potential for enabling new products, services, and markets,
public and private interests have aligned in support of smart-grid technologies. For example,
the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) provided incentives for utilities to
undertake smart grid investments in Section 1306, which authorizes the Secretary of Energy
to establish the Smart Grid Investment Matching Grant Program. This program was designed
to provide reimbursement for up to 20 percent of a utilitys investment in smart grid
technologies. Section 1306 of EISA also defined what constituted a qualified investment and
outlined a process for applying for cost reimbursement. Section 1307 of EISA encouraged
states to require utilities prior to investing in non-advanced grid technologies to demonstrate
consideration for smart grid investments. Section 1307 also encouraged states to consider
regulatory requirements that included the reimbursement of book-value costs for any
equipment rendered obsolete through smart grid investment [Metric 4].
The private sector is also supporting smart grid investment [Metric 20]. This interest is
spurred by several investment drivers:
Significant increases in fossil fuel prices
Peak demand growing at a time when energy infrastructure is in need of updating and
replacement
New infrastructure costs to meet load of approximately $500B over the next 20 years
24
(1) per email communication with Brian Fan of the Cleantech Group on September 10, 2008.
25
Approximately 4.7%
of all U.S. customers are currently
served by AMI.
A smart grid enables new products and services through automation, communication sharing,
facilitating and rewarding shifts in customer behavior in response to changing grid and market
conditions, and encouraging development of new technologies (e.g., AMI, plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles). For example, Carnegie Mellons Electricity Industry Center reports that
there are now approximately 12 million backup generators in the United States, representing
200 GW of generating capacity [Metric 7]. This backup generating capacity is growing at a
rate of 5 GW per year (Gilmore and Lave 2007). A smart grid, by enabling the bi-directional
flow of energy in combination with programs allowing customers to use these backup
generating devices to sell energy back to the grid during high-cost peak periods, could
enhance the market for these new products and the services they provide.
A smart grid that incorporates real-time pricing structures and bi-directional information flow
through metering and information networks is expected to support the introduction of
numerous technologies into the system [Metric 20]. Enabling AMI technology itself
represents a major driver in smart-grid investment, as evidenced by several large-scale
deployment programs:
The three largest utilities in California are installing millions of smart meters at homes
and businesses and charging customers $4.6 billion for the enhanced service.
Duke Energy is installing 800,000 smart meters.
Texas utility Oncor is installing smart meters at a cost of $690 million.
Pacific Gas and Electric is retrofitting 9 million meters with communications
electronics to enable TOU pricing.
The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power has purchased 9,000 smart meters to
enable transmission of real-time data through public wireless networks (Wesoff 2008).
Approximately 4.7% of all U.S. customers are currently served by AMI with states in the
Mid-Atlantic and Midwest experiencing the highest rates of usage at around 8-11 percent.
Pennsylvania has the highest penetration with 23.9 %.
The smart grid also supports the deployment of new vehicle technologies (e.g., EVs and
PHEVs) [Metric 8].(1) Real-time pricing enabled through AMI would allow customers to
recharge vehicles at reduced cost during off-peak hours. Bi-directional metering would enable
customers to purchase energy at off-peak hours and sell unused, stored energy back to the
utility during peak periods at higher rates. These two elements could feasibly enhance the
customers return on investment (ROI) for EV and PHEV technologies, and accelerate
market penetration. Note, technical challenges with regard to battery performance due to
charge and discharge cycles need further investigation and remediation.
(1) The PHEV is a hybrid electric vehicle with batteries that can be recharged when plugged into the electric wall
outlet and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries require recharging.
26
The market penetration of EVs and PHEVs demonstrates the potential application of a new
technology enabled by the smart grid. Table 3.3 shows that the number of EVs reached
28,891 in 2006, representing roughly .01 percent of all light-duty vehicles in use. Light-duty
vehicles include automobiles, vans, pickups, and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) with a gross
vehicle weight rating of 8,500 pounds or less.(1) The U.S. DOE does not estimate current
PHEV sales. There are several companies that perform aftermarket conversions (e.g.,
Amberjac Products, Hybrids-PlusTM, Plug-In Conversions Corp.) but there are no originalequipment manufacturers (OEMs) currently marketing PHEVs. Recent announcements by
the automotive industry suggest that PHEVs and EVs will be commercially available in the
2010 to 2012 timeframe. PHEV sales are forecast by DOE to reach 237, 212 (1.4% of lightduty vehicle sales) by 2020 and 443,207 (2.2% of light-duty vehicle sales) by 2030.
Table 3.3. EV and PHEV Market Penetration (DOE/EIA 2009c)
EVs On-Road
PHEVs On-Road
Year
Total in Use
% of Light-Duty
Vehicles
2006
28,891
0.01%
2010
24,247
0.01%
35,526
2015
17,840
0.01%
2020
11,453
0.00%
2025
6,787
0.00%
2030
4,351
0.00%
EV Sales
Total Suites
% of Light-Duty
Market
0.00%
173
0.02%
130
442,570
0.18%
1,322,438
0.51%
2,701,419
4,282,767
PHEV Sales
Total Sales
% of Light-Duty
Vehicles
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
35,526
0.26%
149
0.00%
139,164
0.86%
153
0.00%
237,212
1.43%
0.98%
165
0.00%
350,386
1.95%
1.44%
184
0.00%
443,207
2.21%
Total in Use
Table 3.3 presents a forecast to 2030 of the number of EVs and PHEVs operating on-road
based on the Energy Information Administrations (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2009, Early
Release. As shown, the number of light-duty EVs in use reached nearly 29,000 in 2006 but is
forecast to decline to 4,351 by 2030. The decline in EVs in use does not reflect a trend away
from alternative vehicle technologies but rather a transition towards more competition among
alternative technologies, some of which have not yet entered the marketplace (e.g., PHEVs).
The PHEV share of on-road light-duty vehicles is forecast by U.S. DOE to grow slowly
through 2030, reaching 4.3 million (DOE/EIA 2008b).
The U.S. DOE forecast presented in the Annual Energy Outlook is conservative compared to
a small number of recent forecasts prepared by industry. While most forecasts estimate
ultimate hybrid-electric and EV penetration of the light-duty vehicle market in the 8-16
percent range, (Greene et al. 2004), the EPRI and Natural Resources Defense Council
(NRDC) were more aggressive, estimating PHEV market penetration rates ranging between
20% and 80% by 2050 (medium PHEV scenario estimate of 62% in 2050). EPRI
and NRDC used a consumer choice model to estimate market penetration rates
(EPRI/NRDC 2007).
A report recently prepared for the U.S. DOE presented and examined a series of PHEV
market-penetration scenarios given varying sets of assumptions governing PHEV market
potential. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representatives
contacted for the U.S. DOE report and data obtained through a literature review, annual
market-penetration rates for PHEVs were forecast from 2013 through 2045 for three
(1) The definition of light-duty vehicles includes motorcycles. Although electric motorcycles are commercially
available, plug-in hybrid motorcycles are unlikely to be pursued as a product. Therefore, we omitted
motorcycles from this analysis.
27
scenarios. Under the scenario that examines market penetration assuming all the current U.S.
DOE goals for PHEV development are achieved (e.g., $4,000 marginal cost of PHEV
technology over existing hybrid technology, 40 miles all-electric range, 100 miles-per-gallon
equivalent, and that PHEV batteries meet industry standards regarding economic life and
safety), PHEV market penetration is forecast to ultimately reach 30 percent of new light-duty
vehicle sales, reaching 9.9 percent by 2023 and 27.8 percent by 2035 (Balducci 2008).
The forecasts in Balducci (2008) and EPRI/NRDC (2007) were designed with scenarios based
on increasingly aggressive assumptions. These scenarios assume that the PHEV will ultimately
become the dominant alternative fuel vehicle. The EPRI/NRDC study was focused on the
potential environmental impact of PHEV market penetration. Therefore, aggressive
assumptions were required under some of the scenarios to generate a reasonably significant
and measurable environmental impact. Neither study presents the scenarios as definitive or
assigns probabilities to their outcomes. Rather, the studies are designed to measure the
impact, or in the case of Balducci (2008) estimate the penetration rate, given certain sets of
assumptions. If the goals outlined in Balducci (2008) are not reached, market penetration
rates would certainly be lower than estimated. DOE estimates are generated by the National
Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which does not use aggressive assumptions to determine
the market potential of PHEVs. Instead, the light-duty alternative fuel vehicle market is
forecast by NEMS to be dominated by diesel, flex fuel, and hybrid electric vehicles, not
PHEVs.
A smart grid will also enable consumer-oriented smart equipment, including
communicating thermostats, microwaves, space heaters, refrigerators, clothes washers and
dryers, and water heaters [Metric 9]. This equipment will be fitted with signaling software, or
more specifically firmware, which enables the device to communicate with other components
of a smart grid. These technologies will allow the customer and/or the utility or other
authorized third parties to dynamically control the devices energy consumption based on
energy prices and grid conditions.
In addition to specific appliances, this category of equipment encompasses other devices
including meters, switches, power outlets and various other controllers that could be used to
retrofit or otherwise enable existing equipment to respond to smart-grid conditions. For
example, a new smart water heater may be equipped with a device that coordinates with the
facilitys energy management system to adjust temperature controls within user-specified
limits based on energy prices. These technologies are under development but not yet
commercially available on a widespread basis.
There are a number of other technologies that are currently commercially available that take
advantage of smart grid features. For example, solar panels can be easily installed on rooftops
by homeowners and safely generate power for years. Solar power can generate power at a cost
of $10 to $12 per watt [Metric 7c] (Solar Guide 2008). These costs could be much lower in
the future.
The new products and services highlighted in this section depend on regulatory recovery for
smart grid investments. Historically, utilities have been rewarded for investment in capital
projects and energy throughput. That is, expanded peak demand has driven the need for
additional capital projects, which increase the rate base. As energy sales grow, revenues
increase. Both factors run counter to encouraging smart grid investments. Thus, regulatory
frameworks can discourage energy efficiency, demand reduction, demand response,
distributed generation, and asset optimization (Anders 2007).
28
Electricity service providers participating in interviews conducted for this report indicated
that, on average, they are recovering 8.1 percent of their investment through rate structures
but predict that regulatory recovery rates will expand significantly in the coming years,
ultimately reaching 90 percent. In addition, there are opportunities for expanded smart grid
investment when sales are decoupled from revenues. When states decouple sales from
revenues, a significant disincentive for utility investment in energy efficiency measures,
including those that may be enabled by smart grid, is removed. In addition, consumer
concerns that efficiency measures should reduce electric bills also needs to be addressed. This
may be done in part by energy efficiency programs.(1) There are currently 10 states with
energy efficiency programs where decoupling is not used, 11 states with energy efficiency
programs where decoupling was proposed but not adopted, three states plus the District of
Columbia with energy efficiency programs where decoupling is being investigated, nine states
with energy efficiency programs where decoupling has been approved for at least one utility,
and one state with no energy efficiency program where at least one utility has been approved
for decoupling [Metric 4].
(1) A policy and program framework to encourage greater end-use energy efficiency can be found in (EPA 2008c).
29
Demand-response equipment also enables the design and function of new markets. Demand
response attempts to capture why consumers want electric power, when they want it, and how
much they are willing to pay for this consumption. Demand response is typically viewed from
a system operations point of view as a form of additional capacity and is discussed in terms of
MW. Thus, a 2008 FERC survey estimated that the potential reduction due to such demandresponse programs is approximately 41,000 MW per year, an increase of 9 percent and 5.8
percent of U.S. peak demands (FERC 2008).
Microgrids also represent a new smart grid-enabled market area [Metric 6]. A microgrid is a
distribution system with distributed energy sources, storage devices and controllable loads,
which may generally operate connected to the main power grid but is capable of operating as
an island. From the grids perspective, the primary advantage of a microgrid is that it can
operate as a single collective load within the power system. Customers benefit from the quality
of power produced and the enhanced reliability over relying solely on the grid for power.
In the U.S. Department of Energys vision of the electric power infrastructure (Grid 2030),
microgrids are one of the three technical cornerstones. Microgrids are envisioned as local
power networks that use distributed energy resources and manage local energy supply and
demand. In 2006, less than 0.1% of the nations generation capacity was met by microgrids,
indicating that this is a nascent aspect of smart grid deployment.
The ability to better manage where power is going, how it is being used, and when it is being
used also enables markets for premium power [Metric 17]. That is, managing load served by
service type, such as firm service or interruptible service and their corresponding tariffs will
enable utility and government agencies to differentiate between consumer types, enable
demand curve estimation, and identify energy consumption schedules.
The cost of connecting and configuring smart devices and systems into the electric grid
remains an obstacle to the high volume penetration levels anticipated. For automation
components to connect and work, alignment is needed in communications networks,
information understanding, business processing, and business and regulatory policy
(see Figure 3.8). This alignment results in interoperability and it is aided by integration
methods, tools, as well
as adherence to standards
and agreements that
cover all these aspects
[Metric 19]. Given the
fast pace of change in
technology, the evolving
and competitive
approaches to conducting
business, and the local,
state, and federal aspects
of policymaking,
interoperability cannot
rest on a fixed set of
standards, but requires
a flexible framework,
much like contract law.
Progress is being made
at technical levels with
openly available communications architectures and standards, while work is just beginning to
understand the information and business processes involved in application areas such as
demand response.
Determining a quantifiable measurement of progress to improving interoperability for a smart
grid is difficult; however, significant progress has been made in educating stakeholders on the
nature of the issues and their importance. In the Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007, NIST was given the directive to develop an interoperability framework of protocols and
standards to support a smart grid. Stakeholders are assembling to contribute and align their
ideas for such a framework. As interoperability improvement is akin to software quality
improvement, a more quantifiable measurement based upon a Capability Maturity Model
(SEI 2008) is proposed for future reports. With such a model, assessments can be made by
interviewing a representative sample of smart grid projects.
Premium-power programs
Demand-response programs
Storage devices (e.g., batteries, flywheels, superconducting magnetic energy storage)
31
Related Metrics
5, 6*, 7, 9, 11, 17*
Together, these technologies and other elements of a smart grid could offer tremendous
benefits to energy consumers through cost avoidance and associated productivity gains.
While PQ is generally viewed in terms of both disruptions and disturbances, this section
focuses entirely on PQ issues relating to power disturbances. See Section 3.6 for a discussion
of power disruptions.
32
Comparing the studies and assessing trends, however, is more difficult, as each study uses
different definitions, parameters, and instrumentation. NPL filtered data to compare it with
that of IBM and then the AT&T surveys in their PQ paper to examine trends in disturbances
and outages. When the data examined by NPL were compared to both the IBM and AT&T
studies, the NPL research team found a decrease in total disturbances per month but an
increase in outages and sag disturbances. Thus, the data suggest the electrical grid has
improved in terms of its ability to provide clean power free of disturbances but has become
less capable over time to meet the growing demand placed on it and provide an uninterrupted
power supply to electricity consumers.
A loss of power or a fluctuation in power causes commercial and industrial users to lose
valuable time and money each year. Cost estimates of power interruptions and outages vary.
A 2002 study prepared by Primen concluded that power quality disturbances alone cost the
US economy between $15-$24 billion annually (McNulty and Howe 2002). In 2001 EPRI
estimated power interruption and power quality cost at $119 billion a year (EPRI 2001), and
a more recent 2004 study from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) estimated the
cost at $80 billion a year (Hamachi LaCommare and Eto 2004).
Smart-grid-enabled
distributed controls
and diagnostic tools
help the system
dynamically
respond to power
imbalances.
Microgrids are also serving to enhance PQ at specific sites [Metric 6]. Technologic,
regulatory, economic, and environmental incentives are changing the landscape of electricity
production and transmission in the United States. Distributed production using smaller
generating systems, such as small-scale combined heat and power (CHP), small-scale
renewable energy sources (RES) and other DERs can have energy efficiency, and therefore,
environmental advantages over large, central generation. The growing availability of new
technologies in the areas of power electronics, control, and communications supports efforts
in this area. These new technologies enable small power generators, typically located at user
sites where the energy (both electric and thermal) they generate is used, to provide sources of
reliable, quality power, which can be organized and operated as microgrids.
A microgrid is defined as a distribution system with distributed energy sources, storage
devices, and controllable loads, that may generally operate connected to the main power grid
but is capable of operating as an island. Currently, approximately 20 microgrids can be found
at universities, petrochemical facilities and U.S. defense facilities. According to RDC (2005),
the microgrids provided 785 MW of capacity in 2005. They noted additional microgrids that
were in planning at the time as well as demonstration microgrids. RDC also noted that by
examining the Energy Information Administrations database they could determine
approximately 375 potential sites for microgrids if they werent already microgrids. Outside
of the petrochemical microgrids, there are no commercial microgrids in the United States
33
(PSPN 2008). Given EIAs net summer capacity of 906,155 MW and assuming no
devolution of microgrid capacity from 2005, the percentage of capacity met by microgrids
is about 0.09% in 2006.
Table 3.4. Capacity of Microgrids in 2005 (MW) (RDC 2005)
Capacity (MW)
University
Petrochemical
DoD
322
455
Navigant Consulting, in their base case scenario, projected 550 microgrids installed and
producing approximately 5.5 GW by 2020 (Navigant 2005) or about 0.5% of projected
capacity (DOE/EIA 2009a). Navigant (2005) predicts a range of 1 13 GW depending on
assumptions about pushes for more central power, requirements and demand for reliability
from customers and whether there is a environmental requirement for carbon management.
Grid-connected distributed generation (DG) and storage technologies can enhance PQ due
to their smaller scale, localized support for power generation and distribution systems, and
potential ability to respond to power disruptions and disturbances (e.g., islanded operation).
These technologies include power generators, such as wind turbines connected at the
distribution system level, micro hydro installations, solar panels, and gas microturbines.
These distributed generators produce power for onsite or adjacent consumption and could sell
surplus power back into the grid under an established fee-in tariff. These technologies also
include energy storage devices such as batteries and flywheels, which could be used to store
energy produced or purchased during off-peak hours and then sold or consumed on-peak.
While these technologies have considerable potential for enhancing PQ, distributed
generation capacity is currently a small part of total power generation, with combined
total distributed generation capacity reaching 12,702 megawatts in 2007 [Metric 7]
(DOE/EIA 2007).
The ability to track where power is going, what is being done with it, and when it is being
used is paramount to addressing PQ issues. Further, the tracking of load served by service
type, such as firm service or interruptible service, and their corresponding tariffs (fixed or
marginal-cost based) will enable utility and government agencies to discriminate between
consumer types, enable demand-curve estimation, and identify energy-consumption
schedules.
According to estimates published in the 2008 Annual Energy Outlook, residential and
commercial energy sales are expected to outpace industrial energy sales (DOE/EIA 2008a).
With both residential and commercial energy demands approaching approximately double
their 1995 values by 2030, the ability to disaggregate and track not only who is consuming
the most energy, but how it is being consumed, will become an increasingly more valuable
asset of a smart grid as utility and government agencies strive to further increase energy
efficiencies, manage ever-increasing loads, and provide high PQ.
Load management involves demand-response equipment that can respond to load conditions
[Metric 5]. There are a number of organizations (e.g., Electric Reliability Council of Texas,
Public Utility Commission of Texas) that act to balance and curtail loads to avoid and manage
power disruptions and disturbances. Nationally, however, demand response is low. Table 3.5
shows the number of entities with demand response programs.
34
Number of
Entities
209
Interruptible/Curtailable
248
136
81
Demand Bidding/Buyback
57
Ancillary Services
80
Related Metrics
2, 3, 5, 7, 11*, 13,
14*, 15*, 16*
One of the key features of a smart grid is its lower costs of operations, maintenance, and
expansion compared with those of traditional forms of operation. A smart grid is able to
optimize operating efficiency and utilization of assets by employing advanced information and
communication technologies; this allows better monitoring of equipment maintenance,
minimizes operation costs, and replaces iron with bits (DOE/OEDER 2008b) by reducing
the need for increased generation and infrastructure through demand-response measures and
other technologies.
This section looks at asset utilization and operating efficiency of the bulk generation,
transmission and distribution delivery infrastructure, and the distributed energy resources in
the electric system. It concludes with an overall view of system efficiency.
Figure 3.10. Generation Efficiency for Various Fossil Fuel Sources over Time
(DOE/EIA 2007a)
Table 3.6 shows the 2006 and projected 2008 peak demand and generation capacities. The
grid currently runs with a generation capacity factor of about 46%.
36
Table 3.6. Measured and Projected Peak Demands and Generation Capacities for
Recent Years in the U.S., and Calculated Capacity Factors (NERC 2008)
Measurement
2006 Measured
2008 Projected
789,475
801,209
954,697
991,402
82.69
80.82
640,981
663,105
983,371
1,018,124
65.18
65.13
3,911,914
4,089,327
46.08
46.46
(1) The average of the NERC (2006) summer and winter capacities was used for this calculation.
A significant component of the measurement, analysis, and control of the T&D infrastructure
relates to control centers at the transmission and distribution levels of the system (SCADA,
energy management systems EMS, and distribution management systems - DMS).
According to a recent survey by Newton-Evans Research, almost all utilities with over 25,000
customers have SCADA/EMS systems in place, while only about 17% of utilities have DMS
systems (Newton-Evans 2008). One smart grid trend is to integrate other functions with
these centers. For example, about 30% of the SCADA/EMS systems are linked to
Distribution Automation/DMS. Figure 3.11 shows the projected integration of EMS/
SCADA/DMS systems to a variety of other data systems.
The investment in T&D
automation can be
estimated either from
total industrial output of
specific automation
products to US markets
or from the receiving
demand side (utility
company) as purchases.
Market statistics for
T&D investment already
exist and could be readily
utilized. Newton-Evans
Research provides
market-volume estimates
on automation products
aggregated to categories
such as shown in
Figure 3.12. The figure
shows that significant
increases in T&D
Figure 3.11. Current/Future Plans for Connecting EMS/SCADA/DMS Systems to Other
automation are expected
Data Systems (Newton-Evans 2008)
between 2007 and 2010.
For example, spending on distribution automation is expected to almost triple by 2010 to
nearly $180 million. Protective relays are expected to increase 25% to $235 million, feedswitch investment by 225% to $65 million, control-center upgrades by 29% to $155 million;
and substation investment by 35% to $540 million (Newton-Evans 2008).
Data sharing from the field and between control centers and reliability coordination centers
improves the true operational view of the system. Without an accurate view, operating
procedures are developed with engineering buffers that allow for inaccuracy or unpredictable
situations. The level of situation awareness is also being raised by advanced measurements,
such as synchro-phasors, that are beginning to be shared across large regions of the country.
The North American Synchro-Phasor Initiative (NASPI) reports that in 2008, 175 phasor
measurement units are operating in North America [Metrics 2, 13]. In addition, control
centers have more data to gather from the field with the growth in T&D automation. This
further reduces the number of system disruptions, the downtime from a disruption, and the
total impact of such an occurrence [Metric 11]. Distribution automation investment is
expected to triple to almost $180 million in 2010, while transmission automation investment
is expected to increase by 35% to $540 million.
38
Figure 3.13. Peak Demand for the Contiguous U.S. (DOE/EIA 2007c)
39
near future. For example as shown in Figure 3.13, the Energy Information Administration
predicts that the winter peak demand for energy will increase to almost 700,000 megawatts by
2011 (DOE/EIA 2007c).
Figure 3.14. Electricity Flow Diagram 2007 (Quadrillion Btu) (DOE/EIA 2007a)
40
development of additional, distributed generators. This will be especially true in the case of
renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and small hydro generation, as current regional
initiatives support the focus and development of these technologies.
Resiliency is
embedded in
operational culture:
policy, procedures,
and vigilance.
Given the great numbers of automation components interacting with a smart grid, an
important operational paradigm going forward is distributed decision making. That is,
equipment and smart-grid subsystems need to share actionable information so that local
decision making not only serves local self-interest, but collaboratively supports the overall
health of the system. As individual components of the system fail, including processing and
communications components, the remaining connected components have the ability to adapt
and reconfigure themselves to best achieve their objectives much like a society of devices.
Though hierarchical command-and-control approaches will continue to occupy important
roles in system design, distributed decision-making approaches are becoming more prevalent.
The strength of our electricity system does not lie in its ability to optimally reach a predefined
mission or objective, but in the fact that its business and infrastructure components can adapt
and evolve to meet the changing needs of an unpredictable future. As in nature, disturbances
may impact portions of the ecosystem to varying degrees, and in the case of natural disasters,
render regions incapacitated; however, the remainder of the system reacts to contain the
damage, and amass a reconstruction effort once the event has past.
Operational resiliency has three basic descriptive properties (Caralli et al. 2006):
1. ability to change (adapt, expand, conform, contort) when a force is enacted,
2. ability to perform adequately or minimally while the force is in effect,
3. ability to return to a predefined, expected normal state whenever the force relents or is
rendered ineffective.
41
Related Metrics
1, 2*, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9*,
10*, 11, 12, 13*, 16,
18*
attacks. In particular, critical-peak and real-time pricing programs provide a mechanism for
system operators and reliability coordinators to access these resources to enhance operational
resiliency. In a 2006 survey, FERC found that approximately 1.1% of the total customer base
was served by time-of-use price offerings [Metric 1], nearly all of which were residential
customers.
Finally, situational awareness of grid behavior is being transformed by wide-area-measurement
networks. Initiatives in the western interconnection have been underway for many years and
have contributed to reviews of major outages and questioned system dynamics models for
planning and operations. Only recently have time-synchronized, high quality measurements
(from phasor measurement units PMUs) worked their way into operating rooms of
reliability coordinators and balancing authorities [Metric 13]. The North American
Synchro-Phasor Initiative (NASPI), led by NERC and supported by DOE, is advancing
the coordination of the deployment of PMUs and the networking of their measurements
for wide-area situation awareness and other applications. Currently there are approximately
165 PMUs installed. In the eastern interconnection, there are 104 PMUs with 89 networked
and 61 PMUs in the western interconnection (Dagle 2008). One trade source indicates there
were 150 PMUs installed in early 2008 within the eastern and western interconnections
(Galvan et al. 2008) up from the 100 PMUs indicated in 2006 (DOE 2006a).
Figure 3.16 shows, as of 2007, the existing and planned PMU deployment locations in North
America. There are many PMUs installed that are not networked across organizations not
shown on the map, with many more projected in the future.
Figure 3.16. Networked Phasor Measurement Units in the North American Power Grid
(PNNL/EIOC 2008)
43
Only about 8% of
customers are
involved in some
form of incentivebased program.
44
45
Data from utilities across the nation show a clear trend of increasing T&D automation and
increasing investment in these systems [Metric 11]. Increases in investment in T&D
automation systems should lead to greater operational resiliency in the delivery infrastructure.
Recent research shows that while 84% of utilities had substation automation and integration
plans underway in 2005, and about 70% of utilities had deployed SCADA systems to
substations, the penetration of automation at the distribution-feeder level is still limited to
about 20% (ELP 2008; McDonnell 2008). This suggests a large area for growth in smart-grid
deployment.
Another important trend within the electricity-delivery infrastructure is the rollout of
advanced meters [Metric 12]. The capabilities of these systems promise to dramatically
increase the accuracy of data to pricing policies, demand forecasts, and consumer applications,
as well as increase the ability of the grid to respond to emergency occurrences such as
blackouts and brownouts. Because AMI can play an enabling role in load participation in
system operations it can have a significant influence on operational resiliency. Currently, AMI
composes about 4.7% of total U.S. electric meters (FERC 2006a). Activity in the use of
advanced metering has been increasing rapidly, growing nearly 700% from 2006 to 2008.
While it is difficult to assess precisely which functions these AMI deployments support, the
penetration rates indicate that this enabling technology is being positioned to support greater
participation by distributed energy resources to the benefit of operational resiliency.
An increase in the penetration of dynamic line ratings and the associated measurement
equipment will also contribute to understanding the status of the deployment of a smart
grid [Metric 16]. The capacity of transmission equipment is not static, but can change
significantly according to several variables, most notably conductor sag caused by thermal
properties. Sensors for measuring the impact on sag are appearing more frequently,
particularly in pilot programs for critical corridors. Though the number of miles of
transmission with dynamic ratings is anticipated to increase, it is so small now as to be
negligible on an interconnection basis.
A vigilant security
culture needs to
permeate the stakeholder base to
continually assess
evolving cyber
threats, risks,
and response.
46
Economic forces and technology development are making the power system more dependent
on information systems and external communications networks. The interconnected nature
of the communications systems that support regional and interregional grid control, and the
need to continue supporting older legacy systems in parallel with newer generations of control
systems, further compound these security challenges. Additionally, with the advent of
inexpensive microcontrollers and smart-grid implementation, there is a growing trend for
increased intelligence and capabilities in field equipment installed in substations, within the
distribution network, and even at the customers premises. This increased control capability,
while vastly increasing the flexibility and functionality to achieve better economies, also
introduces cyber-vulnerabilities that have not previously existed and presents a significantly
larger number of targets.
An understanding of component and associated system vulnerabilities will be necessary to
quantify cyber-security issues inherent in smart grid deployments, particularly when these
systems can be used to control or influence the behavior of the system. Assessments will be
needed, both in controlled laboratory and test-bed environments, and in actual deployed field
conditions, to explore and understand the implications of various cyber-attack scenarios, the
resilience of existing security measures, and the robustness of proposed countermeasures.
Vendor and operator adoption of these countermeasures will be critical in broadly influencing
the installed base of future deployments. The asset owners remain responsible for their
legacy systems as smart grid technologies are deployed. A security culture that is vigilant to
continually assess evolving threats and risks, then balance those with countermeasures needs
to permeate the stakeholder base.
The interviews with service providers in Annex B of this report offer a sampling of data with
regard to industry compliance with NERC cyber-security standards, including percentage of
utilities that have conducted assessments at various frequencies for NERC Critical
Infrastructure Protection (CIP) Standards 002 through 009 (see Table 3.7). The interviews
indicate 5% of the utility respondents have never conducted an assessment. Its not clear
whether this is because these utilities are not large enough to have an impact on the bulk
electric power system or because they are still in the process of phasing in their compliance.
As the timeline for mandatory compliance of all entities associated with the bulk electric
system becomes fully implemented, and NERC establishes procedures for more formally
tracking compliance with these standards, it will become increasingly easier to gather data for
this metric and assess it for trends.
Table 3.7. Summary of the NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection Standards
NERC Standard
Subject Area
CIP-001-1
Sabotage Reporting
CIP-002-1
CIP-003-1
CIP-004-1
CIP-005-1
CIP-006-1
CIP-007-1
CIP-008-1
CIP-009-1
Affirmative Responses
a. Intrusion detection
65.0%
50.0%
c. Encrypted communications
70.0%
d. Firewalls
95.0%
30.0%
47
48
There may be
smaller sub-markets
that would be
better served if
differentiated power
quality standards
existed.
50
storage and transmissions are tamper proof, reliable, and do not corrupt or break down over
the lifetime of an appliance. Devices that communicate wirelessly with their facility energymanagement systems must broadcast powerful-enough signals, or other technical barriers to
effective communication must be resolved. For example, a washer/dryer located in a houses
basement attempting to communicate with an energy-management system on the far side of
the building will require a stronger signal than a closer device on the ground floor. Therefore
communication equipment may need a flexible and dynamic range of broadcast strengths.
Finally, aggregating and sharing system data involves its own concerns; for example, providing
infrastructure to communicate wide-area measurement data across the grid requires agreement
by the stakeholders on the information network architecture, the supported functions, data
exchange interface definitions, and legal conditions for granting use of the data.
Since the technology and value propositions are emerging, utility companies may be reluctant
to expend the significant amount of capital required to move toward a smart grid, especially
because expected cost-recovery timelines are only theoretical and have no precedent.
Currently, regulated utilities and their flat-rate customers have no risk or reward signal.
Regulation makes it difficult for them to raise rates and recover costs, and makes them
reluctant to change. Moreover, transmission-planning difficulties may or may not offset
revenue losses incurred from reduced transmission; with uncertainty about market penetration
of DG these effects can be difficult to model. Without effective cost recovery mechanisms in
place, increased market penetration of DG will translate into lost demand for utilities. The
uncertainty about market penetration is increased when utilities start to consider the time and
cost of training a new smart-grid-skilled labor force (NERC 2007). Thus, utilities seeking to
balance costs and operating efficiency will seek to increase asset utilization through the
implementation of demand response measures and AMI technology, as opposed to expensive
infrastructure upgrades. Further, as more and more devices become web enabled and move
toward becoming fully smart devices, the inclusion of electronics in these devices, as well as
the development and maintenance of this hardware and its respective software, will require
manufacturers to reevaluate these devices life-cycle costs. A smart grid will require service
providers to operate in new ways and be willing to take reasonable risks for reasonable
rewards. Regulators will need to design rules such that customers who do not change are not
worse off, but that businesses can pursue advantageous arrangements between participating
suppliers and consumers.
51
Aside from making a strong analytical business case with existing distribution models, the first
few successful deployments of these new smart technologies will be pivotal to ensuring deep
market penetration. Not all of these technologies are necessarily complementary. For
example, when metering residential customers, drive-by and walk-by meters (AMR) are
considered a competing technology and currently are out-shipping AMI products. Other
than the more-convenient data gathering over traditional meters, AMR meters offer very few
to none of the benefits and functions necessary to enable residential customers to
meaningfully participate in a smart grid. However, implementing smart-grid technologies is
daunting; the cost to implement AMI technology alone has been forecast between $19 and
$27 billion (Kuhn 2008). Customers desire good value for the investments reflected in their
power bills and they may want more options to manage their energy usage and bills, especially
during a rate increase.
While utilities must be able to recover their investment costs, the potential savings from some
of these technologies is considerable. For example, use of data from wide-area measurement
systems (WAMS), including synchro-phasor measurements, could have mitigated or even
avoided the estimated $4.5 billion in losses suffered by over 50 million people in the 2003
blackout of the northeastern U.S. and Canada (DOE 2004). To fully realize these benefits,
high levels of market penetration must be encouraged; to accomplish this, new technologies
will need simple, streamlined user interfaces, plug-and-play setups, and cost models that
accurately forecast a reasonable payback period for newly developed and installed technologies
for both utility companies and consumers, followed by reports on actual and successful
deployments. Prior to successful deployments, important questions remain, including
identifying winners and losers with bulk system reliability, evaluating those losses and gains,
and how reasonable investments are recouped.
As consumer participation increases, a higher level of distributed-generation resources are
expected to become available (Eynon 2002). The costs of making these DG resources
dispatchable are estimated to be high and vary significantly between utilities. Storing energy
generated by DG resources will continue to be a problem until a cost-effective, lowmaintenance solution is introduced. Trends suggest this might be done with highly efficient
batteries or by pre-heating and cooling buildings. Until then however, viable payback
strategies, such as storing generated power during off-peak hours and selling it back into the
grid during high-price on-peak hours, will not be feasible. The lack of cost-effective, lowmaintenance batteries is a particular hindrance for renewable energies such as solar and wind
generation, because their generation varies over time and may not match demand patterns.
Lastly, consumer concerns about hybrid electric vehicles including price, insufficient power,
and dependability will need to be addressed by PHEV and EV manufacturers. The cost to
convert a hybrid vehicle to a PHEV is currently considered prohibitive; it can vary between
six and eight thousand dollars and consumers may consider the payback period too long.
Because of these concerns, PHEVs will be unlikely to penetrate all markets, leaving heavyduty and long-range vehicles, such as semi-trucks, and high-performance vehicles such as
sports cars requiring contemporary infrastructure, such as gas stations, while PHEVs and EVs
require new supporting infrastructure, such as charge stations. Economies of scale for these
services may or may not exist.
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In addition, future reports require the development of assessment models that support those
metrics that are difficult to measure, particularly regarding progress on cyber-security and
automation-system interoperability related to open architecture and standards. Other models
and tools to measure smart grid progress may also be useful.
Besides reviewing the progress of measurements to the metrics identified in this report, future
reports should consider addressing the following potential improvements:
Track significant smart grid demonstration and deployment projects.
Review progress toward resolving smart grid challenges, identify new challenges, and
describe places where opportunities to advance smart grid concepts are taking place.
Track the evolvement of legislative and regulatory decisions and structures to describe
how government agencies are embracing smart grid objectives and are working on paths
that enable and support smart grid advancement.
The sixth characteristic in the table is a merger of the Smart Grid Implementation
Workshop characteristics a) Addresses and Responds to System Disturbances in a SelfHealing Manner and b) Operates Resiliently Against Physical and Cyber Attacks and
Natural Disasters. Though this report found that the same metrics substantially
contribute to both of these concerns, future reports may find it advantageous to keep
these characteristics separate.
Support a glossary of terms related to smart grid deployment status.
Further recommendations specific to each metric can be found in Annex A, which presents
the detailed results of investigation into the metrics. The end of each metric description
includes a subsection on metric recommendations. Future reports should include a review of
these recommendations in addition to those summarized above.
A final consideration for future reports on the status of smart grid deployments is perhaps
more of a warning; attempts to be comprehensive about all things related to a smart grid can
overwhelm the investigation effort and threaten to create so much material that the report
compromises its ability to convey the major aspects of smart grid progress. Care should be
taken to avoid the tendency to proliferate the number of metrics. In deciding if a new metric
is merited, consideration should be given to how it fits with the other metrics, if a previous
metric can be retired, and the strength of a metrics contribution to explaining the smart grid
progress regarding the identified characteristics.
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