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Lecture-10 Hands On Exercise SDSM 2012

SDSM ppt presentation

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Mian Waqar Ali Shah
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190 views38 pages

Lecture-10 Hands On Exercise SDSM 2012

SDSM ppt presentation

Uploaded by

Mian Waqar Ali Shah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr.

Akm Saiful Islam


WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk
Management
Akm Saiful Islam
Lecture-9: Handson Exercise using
SDSM to downscaling Temperature of a
selected station of Bangladesh
March, 2013
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Lecture Topic
Download and Installation of SDSM
Download of GCM data
Preparation of Station data
Consistency of station data
Calibration and validation of model
Future scenario generations

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Getting Started
http://co-public.lboro.ac.uk/cocwd/SDSM/
First
Register yourself
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Installing the software
https://co-public.lboro.ac.uk/cocwd/SDSM/software.html
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Statistical Downscaling Input
http://cccsn.ca/?page=sdsm
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Statistical Downscaling Input
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
(25x 25y)
(25x 26y)
(90, 25)
(90, 22.5)
Dhaka BMD station
(90.38 , 23.78)
Box # ??
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
H3A2a_1961-2099 (Hadley Centre Climate Model 3 Emissions Scenario A2 -
pessimistic)
h3a2mslpas.dat
h3a2p5_fas.dat
H3B2a_1961-2099 (B2 - optimistic)
h3b2mslpas.dat
h3b2p5_fas.dat etc
NCEP_1961-2001
ncepmslpas.dat
ncepp5_uas.dat etc (26 files)
Statistical Downscaling Input
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Statistical Downscaling Input
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
[source] [variable] [grid box] . Dat
nceprhumee.dat ??????
h3b2p8_zsw.dat ??????
h2ggp_thas.dat ??????
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Station Data Preparation
(1961 -2000)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Select Settings
Check Calendar (366)
Uncheck Allow -ve values
Event threshold = 0(temp)
= 1 (rainfall)
Data 1/1/1961 12/31/2000
Save the settings
For Easy selection
Select the source directory of your station data
Select the folder that has your predictand /data
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Click on advance of settings
Option None for temperature
Others for rainfall (i.e., fourth root)
Save the settings
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Click Quality Control
Then Select file
Open the input station data
Click on the Check file
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
If OK appears, quality check is complete.
Manually use the judgment by checking the maximum difference of the temperature
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Data Transformation
Change of predictors (optional)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Screen Variables
Select station data as the predictand file (i.e Tmax_dat)
Select your data period (61-00) and analysis period (i.e. Annual)
Check your process condition (i.e. conditional)
Amend the significance level (i.e. 0.05 for 5% significant value).
SELECT APPROPIATE COMBINATION OF PREDICTOR VARIABLES (<#12)
PRESS
ATTENTION
Temp Unconditional
Rainfall Conditional
ATTENTION
Select the NCEP_1961-2000
folder of appropriate Box
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Choose those combination of variables where
partial correlation (r) is high but with P value 0
Go back and PRESS
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Example: Dhaka Station
Analysis Results
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Scatter Plot
Station data V
s
1 Predictor
Example: Dhaka Station
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Dhaka Station (CALIBRATE MODEL)
Select
those
chosen
combination
1961-1980 for
Tmax_61-80.PAR
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Standard Error = 2%
(Average)
Explained Variance = 23.65%
(Average)
Dhaka Station (Calibration Results)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Weather Generator
(to Validate create output file from 1981-2000)
1/1/1981 for
Tmax_NCEP_81-00
From
Tmax_61-80.PAR
NCEP Files
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Summary Statistics
Go to Summary statistics and press
Select suitable statistics (maximum up to 8), and go back

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Summary Statistics
Click
1981-2000
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Compare Results
Check the results (i.e. mean Vs
mean)
If unsatisfactory, choose another
combination of screen variables and
repeat the above procedures.
Validation is an iterative process
If satisfactory, Go to
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Create Tmax_61-00.PAR with same screen variables combination (validated)
Use the data period 1961 2000
Calculate the Explained Variance

Explained
Variance = 26.04%
Create calibrated file
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Create Present Climatic data (NCEP_1961-1990)
NCEP Files
Calibrate Model
61-00.PAR-> NCEP_61-00.OUT
Summary Statistics
NCEP_61-00.OUT->NCEP61-00.TXT
Tmax_61-00.PAR
1/1/1961
Tmax_NCEP_1961-2000.out
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Creating Model Data
Change the settings calendar to 360 (GCM)
Create H3 A2 or H3 B2 model data (.out) through Scenario Generation
for the year 1961-2000
H3A2_1961-2000
Tmax_61-00.PAR
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Creating Model data (present
+Future)
Create text files (Tmax_H3A2_1961-2000.txt, Tmax_H3A2_2011-2040.txt etc.)
Summary statistics
Choose Statistics options
Analysis period will depend
on the desired (present or
future) data time
Choose Modelled
INPUT FILE
Tmax_H3A2_1961-2000.out
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Sample: Delta Stats Results
Choose Modelled
INPUT FILE
H3A2_1961-2000.out
Analysis period 1961-2099
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Sample: Delta Stats Results Cont
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Sample: Generated output data
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Ensemble Mean (Q-Q plot)
Ensemble Member 1 (FA)
Sample: Frequency Analysis
Tmax.dat as the observed data
H3A2_1961-2000.out as the modelled data

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