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DCF Model

The document performs a discounted cash flow analysis to estimate the total enterprise value of a company. It provides actual and estimated unlevered free cash flows from 2010 to 2017. Using these cash flows, it calculates a total net present value of $67.8 billion under two terminal value methods. Adding the present value of the terminal period to the net present values of the cash flows gives a total estimated enterprise value between $349.5-$376 billion. Accounting for net debt and other items yields an estimated equity value per share of $88.47-$96.34.

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psu0168
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109 views

DCF Model

The document performs a discounted cash flow analysis to estimate the total enterprise value of a company. It provides actual and estimated unlevered free cash flows from 2010 to 2017. Using these cash flows, it calculates a total net present value of $67.8 billion under two terminal value methods. Adding the present value of the terminal period to the net present values of the cash flows gives a total estimated enterprise value between $349.5-$376 billion. Accounting for net debt and other items yields an estimated equity value per share of $88.47-$96.34.

Uploaded by

psu0168
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

(in US$ millions)


Period Ending January 31

Actuals
2010A

2011A

Es
2012A

2013E

Unlevered Free Cash Flow


EBIT

27,888.4

Depreciation & Amortization

8,591.7

Deferred Taxes

715.9

Other

318.0

Changes in Working Capital

891.3

Capital Expenditures

(14,213.0)

Taxes

(9,203.2)

Total Unlevered Free Cash Flow

14,989.1

Net Present Value Calulation


Period

1.0

Discounted Cash Flow

5.16%

Total Net Present Value

67,814.7

Terminal Value
EBITDA Method
Exit Year EBITDA
Multiple
Terminal Value
Net Present Value
Perpetuity Method
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Growth Rate

41,851.9
8.7x
362,181.9
281,669.1
16,308.9
1%

Terminal Value
Net Present Value
Discounted Cash Flow Total Valuation
Total of Present Value of Cash Flows
Present Value of Terminal Value
Total Enterprise Value
Net Debt, Non-controlling interests, preferred securities
Equity Value
Share Count (millions)
Estimated Equity Value per Share

14,254.1

396,263.5
308,174.4
EBITDA Method
67,814.7
281,669.1
349,483.8
51,727.0
297,756.8
3,365.7
$88.47

Perpetuity Method
67,814.7
308,174.4
375,989.1
51,727.0
324,262.1
3,365.7
$96.34

Estimates
2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

29,115.5

30,026.8

30,582.4

30,750.8

9,188.6

9,809.4

10,448.9

11,101.1

1,003.5

791.0

596.3

411.4

318.0

318.0

318.0

318.0

423.2
(14,923.7)

352.8

271.3

181.3

(15,520.6)

(15,986.2)

(16,305.9)

(9,608.1)

(9,908.8)

(10,092.2)

(10,147.8)

15,517.0

15,868.5

16,138.5

16,308.9

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

14,032.4

13,646.6

13,198.2

12,683.5

Cost of Capital
Risk Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Beta
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt
WACC

2.93%
6.00%
0.42
5.45%
5.625%
5.16%

Debt YE 2012
Stock Price
Shares Outstanding
Equity Value

53,427
73.82
3,366
248,459.0

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