superior University of Pakistan

Lecture No. 18
of the course on
Statistics and Probability
by
Dr.Amjad Hussain
 IN THE LAST LECTURE,
YOU LEARNT
•Permutations
•Combinations
•Random Experiment
•Sample Space
•Events
•Mutually Exclusive Events
•Exhaustive Events
•Equally Likely Events
 TOPICS FOR TODAY
•Definitions of Probability:
•Subjective Approach to
Probability
•Objective Approach:
•Classical Definition of
Probability
• Relative Frequency
Definition of Probability
Before we begin the various
definitions of probability, let us
revise the concepts of:
•Mutually Exclusive Events
•Exhaustive Events
•Equally Likely Events
 MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Two events A and B of a single
experiment are said to be mutually
exclusive or disjoint if and only if
they cannot both occur at the same
time
i.e. they have no points in common.
 EXAMPLE-1
When we toss a coin, we
get either a head or a tail, but
not both at the same time.
The two events head and
tail are therefore mutually
exclusive.
 EXAMPLE-2
When a die is rolled, the events
‘even number’ and ‘odd number’
are mutually exclusive as we can
get either an even number or an
odd number in one throw, not
both at the same time.
Similarly, a student either
qualifies or fails, a person is
either a teenager or not a
teenager, etc., etc.
 Three or more events
originating from the same
experiment are mutually
exclusive if pairwise they
are mutually exclusive.
If the two events can occur at the
same time, they are not mutually
exclusive, e.g., if we draw a card
from an ordinary deck of 52
playing cars, it can be both a king
and a diamond.
Therefore, kings and
diamonds are not mutually
exclusive.
Speaking of playing cards, it is
to be remembered that an
ordinary deck of playing cards
contains 52 cards arranged in 4
suits of 13 each. The four suits
are called diamonds, hearts,
clubs and spades; the first two
are red and the last two are
black.
The face values called
denominations, of the 13
cards in each suit are ace, 2,
3, …, 10, jack, queen and
king.
The face cards are king,
queen and jack.
These cards are used for
various games such as
whist, bridge, poker, etc.
 We have discussed the
concepts of mutually exclusive
events.
Another important concept is
that of exhaustive events.
 EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS

Events are said to be

collectively exhaustive,
when the union of mutually
exclusive events is equal to
the entire sample space S.
 EXAMPLES:
1. In the coin-tossing
experiment, ‘head’ and ‘tail’ are
collectively exhaustive events.
2. In the die-tossing experiment,
‘even number’ and ‘odd number’
are collectively exhaustive
events.
 In conformity with what
was discussed in the last
lecture:
PARTITION OF THE SAMPLE
SPACE
A group of mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events
belonging to a sample space is
called a partition of the sample
space.
 With reference to any
sample space S, events A and
A form a partition as they
are mutually exclusive and
their union is the entire
sample space.
 The Venn Diagram
below clearly indicates this
point.
 Venn Diagram

S A

A is shaded
 Next, we consider the
concept of equally likely
events:
EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS
Two events A and B are said to
be equally likely, when one
event is as likely to occur as the
other.
In other words, each event
should occur in equal number in
repeated trials.
 EXAMPLE:
When a fair coin is
tossed, the head is as likely
to appear as the tail, and the
proportion of times each side
is expected to appear is 1/2.
 EXAMPLE
If a card is drawn out of a
deck of well-shuffled cards, each
card is equally likely to be
drawn, and the proportion of
times each card can be expected
to be drawn in a very large
number of draws is 1/52.
 Having discussed basic
concepts related to probability
theory, we now begin the
discussion of THE CONCEPT
AND DEFINITIONS OF
PROBABILITY.
 Probability can be
discussed from two points of
view: the subjective
approach, and the objective
approach.
 SUBJECTIVE
OR
PERSONALISTIC PROBABILITY:
As its name suggests, the
subjective or personalistic
probability is a measure of the
strength of a person’s belief
regarding the occurrence of an
event A.
 Probability in this sense is
purely subjective, and is based
on whatever evidence is
available to the individual.
It has a disadvantage that two
or more persons faced with the
same evidence may arrive at
different probabilities.
 For example, suppose that a
panel of three judges is hearing a
trial. It is possible that, based on
the evidence that is presented, two
of them arrive at the conclusion
that the accused is guilty while
one of them decides that the
evidence is NOT strong enough to
draw this conclusion.
 On the other hand, objective
probability relates to those
situations where everyone will
arrive at the same conclusion.
It can be classified into two
broad categories, each of which
is briefly described as follows:
 1. The Classical or ‘A Priori’
Definition of Probability
If a random experiment can
produce n mutually exclusive and
equally likely outcomes, and if m
out to these outcomes are considered
favourable to the occurrence of a
certain event A, then the probability
of the event A, denoted by P(A), is
defined as the ratio m/n.
 Symbolically, we write
m
P( A ) =
n
Number of favourable outcomes
=
Total number of possible outcomes
This definition was formulated
by the French mathematician
P.S. Laplace (1949-1827) and
can be very conveniently used in
experiments where the total
number of possible outcomes and
the number of outcomes
favourable to an event can be
DETERMINED.
 Let us now consider a
few examples to illustrate the
classical definition of
probability:
 EXAMPLE-1
If a card is drawn from an
ordinary deck of 52 playing
cards, find the probability
that
i) the card is a red card,
ii) the card is a 10.
 SOLUTION
The total number of possible
outcomes is 13+13+13+13 = 52, and
we assume that all possible
outcomes are equally likely.
(It is well-known that an
ordinary deck of cards contains 13
cards of diamonds, 13 cards of
hearts, 13 cards of clubs, and 13
cards of spades.)
 (i) Let A represent the event
that the card drawn is a red card.
Then the number of outcomes
favourable to the event A is 26
(since the 13 cards of diamonds
and the 13 cards of hearts are
red).
Hence
m
P( A ) =
n
Number of favourable outcomes
=
Total number of possible outcomes
26 1
= =
52 2
(ii) Let B denote the event that
the card drawn is a 10.
Then the number of
outcomes favourable to B is 4
as there are four 10’s
4 1
Thus P(B)= = .
52 13
 EXAMPLE-2

A fair coin is tossed three

times. What is the
probability that at least one
head appears?
 SOLUTION
The sample space for this
experiment is
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,
HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
and thus the total number of
sample points is 8
i.e. n(S) = 8.
 As the coin is fair, we
assume that each of these
outcomes is equally likely to
appear.
(Therefore we assign
equal probability of 1/8 to
each outcome.)
 Let A denote the event that at
least one head appears. Then
A = {HHH, HHT, HTH,
THH, HTT, THT, TTH}
and therefore n(A) = 7.
Hence
n( A ) 7
P( A ) = = .
n ( S) 8
 EXAMPLE-3
Four items are taken at
random from a box of 12 items
and inspected. The box is
rejected if more than 1 item is
found to be faulty.
If there are 3 faulty items in
the box, find the probability that
the box is accepted.
 SOLUTION
The sample space S contains
12 
  = 495 sample points
 4 12 
(because there are  
 4
ways of selecting four
items out of twelve).
 The box contains 3 faulty
and 9 good items.
The box is accepted if
there is (i) no faulty items, or
(ii) one faulty item in the
sample of 4 items selected.
 Let A denote the event the
number of faulty items chosen
is 0 or 1.
Then
 3   9   3  9 
n( A ) =     +    
 0   4  1   3 
= 126 + 252 = 378 sample po int s.
 m 378
∴ P( A ) = = = 0.76
n 495

Hence the probability that the

box is accepted is 76%
(in spite of the fact that the box
contains 3 faulty items).
The classical definition has
the following shortcomings:

i) This definition is said to

involve circular reasoning as
the term equally likely really
means equally probable.
Thus probability is defined
by introducing concepts that
presume a prior knowledge
of the meaning of
probability.
ii) This definition becomes
vague when the possible
outcomes are INFINITE in
number, or uncountable.
iii) This definition is NOT
applicable when the assumption of
equally likely does not hold.
 And the fact of the matter is
that there are NUMEROUS
situations where the assumption of
equally likely cannot hold.
And these are the situations
where we have to look for another
definition of probability!
 The other definition of
probability under the objective
approach is the relative
frequency definition of
probability.
 The essence of this definition is
that if an experiment is repeated a large
number of times under (more or less)
identical conditions, and if the event of
our interest occurs a certain number of
times, then the proportion in which
this event occurs is regarded as the
probability of that event.
 For example, we know that a
large number of students sit for the
matric examination every year. Also,
we know that a certain proportion of
these students will obtain the first
division, a certain proportion will
obtain the second division, --- and a
certain proportion of the students
will fail.
 Since the total number of
students appearing for the matric
exam is very large, hence:
•The proportion of students who
obtain the first division --- this
proportion can be regarded as the
probability of obtaining the first
division,
•The proportion of students who
obtain the second division --- this
proportion can be regarded as the
probability of obtaining the second
division,
and so on.
 IN TODAY’S LECTURE,
•Events: YOU LEARNT
•Mutually Exclusive Events
•Exhaustive Events
•Equally Likely Events
•Definitions of Probability:
•Subjective Approach to Probability
•Objective Approach:
•Classical Definition of Probability
• Relative Frequency Definition of
Probability
 IN THE NEXT LECTURE,
YOU WILL LEARN
• Relative Frequency Definition of Probability
•Axiomatic Definition of Probability
•Laws of Probability
•Addition Theorem
•Rule of Complementation
•Conditional Probability
•Multiplication Theorem
•Independent & Dependent Events
•Bayes’ Theorem