The Laws of Migration Author(s): E. G. Ravenstein Reviewed work(s): Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol.

52, No. 2 (Jun., 1889), pp. 241-305 Published by: Blackwell Publishing for the Royal Statistical Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2979333 . Accessed: 10/02/2012 10:33
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1889.]

241

She

LAWS

of MIGRATION. By E. G. RAvENSTEIN, ESQ., F.R.G.S.

SECOND PAPER.1

the Royal StatisticalSociety, 16thApril,1889. [Read before The President,Dr. T. GRAHAM BALFOuiX,F.R.S., &c., in the Chair.] CONTENTS: GeneralScope of the Paper ........ 241 Birth-place and "Nationality" .... 242 " Dispersion " and " Absorption" 244 Gains and Losses due to Migration244 Countries unequal in Population, nor comparable ........................ 245 The UnitedKingdom .................... 246 German Empire .................... 247 Netherlands 253 ............... Belgium 253 ............... ILuxembnrg...... 254 ......... Switzerland ...... 254 ......... Austria ............... , 2'5 Hungary ..... .......... 259 The Balkan Peninsula ............... 263 Denmark ..... 265 .......... Norway.... 265 ........... Sweden... 266 ,, Finland........ 267 Russia .. 267 ...... France .. 269 ...... Italy ........ 272 Spain and Portugal .................... 274 A GeneralSurveyof Europe ........ 274
IN
PAGE

NorthAmerica......................... 278 Canada ........... 278 .............. The UnitedStates........................ 280 Conclusions whichmay be Drawn fromthe factspresented as to the Laws of Migration ............ 286 Remarks.................... 288 Cotncluding Appendix (Tables I-X) ............ 290 1. WesternEurope: the ForeignElement. 2. Western Europe: Regions of Disand Absorption. persion 3. Canada and the United States: the ForeignElemnent. 4. Canada and the UnitedStates: Regionsof DispersionandAbsorption. 5. Dispersion of Migrants from Virginia and Quebec. 6. Absorption of Migrants by Iowa and Manitoba. With an inset Map illustrating theAbsorption of Migrants by Kentucky.
MAPS.

PAGE

March, 1885, I had the honour of reading beforethis Society a paper which I perhaps somewhat ambitiouslyheaded " The Laws " of Migration." To that title I still adhere, notwithstandingthe objections that may be raised against it. Of course I am perfectly aware that our laws of population, and economic laws generally, have not the rigidity of physical laws, as they are continually being interferedwith by human agency. Currents of migration which would flow naturally in a certain direction traced out for them in the main by geographical features,may thus be diverted, or stopped altogether,by legislative enactments. Even London, notwithstandingits unique geographical position,and the advan' In the preparation of this paper I am indebtedto my young friend Mr. G. Philip for assistancein computing the tables and for several of the illustrative diag,.ams.

242

Laws of Migrationw. RAvENSTEIN-TAe

[June,

tages derived fromits being the centreof a vast empire,would not have grown to the size it has if an enactment of the reign of Queen Elizabeth in restraintof its growthhad been enforceddown to the presentday. Instances of towns and even of countrieshaving been stunted in their growththrough a mistaken policy can be foundas easily as can instances in which a wise legislation has partly neutralised all these exceptions, natural disadvantages. But notwithstanding I hope to be able to prove that similar conditionsproduce similar migratorymovements,whetherwe examine into this question on this side of the Atlantic or on the other. In my firstpaper I confinedmyself to the United Kingdom. On the present occasion I propose to extend my inquiry to the principal countries of continental Europe and to North America. I shall firstof all place before you the leading results of some recentcensuses, in as far as they throw light upon the distribution of the populationaccording to birth places, and I shall then discuss these results with a view of discovering the principles, if any, which underlie migratorymovements. If my success in the latter respect should turn out smaller than I could wish, I hope that my statisticalsummarieswill be accepted at least in part compensation for this deficiency. In dealing with my subject I shall adhere, as far as possible, to the lines of my formerpaper, so as to facilitatecomparison. I shall therefore,first of all, divide the population of each country, province, or parish into its constituent elements, as determinedby place of birth. I thus call "Parochial Element" thoseinhabitantswho resided at the time of the census in the parish in which theywere born. I apply the terms " Provincial Element," " National Element," or " Foreign Element " in the same setise. Unless otherwise.statedthese " Elements" are determinedby place of birth,and not by " nationality,"or admission to the privileges of citizenship. All persons bornwithin the limits of the German Empire thereforepass with me for German,whethertheirmother tongue be German, French, or Polish. On the other hand, the childrenof Germans born in France, are counted by me as Frenchmen, or rathernatives of France, whetherenumeratedin Germany or elsewhere,or whethertheyhave " opted " for the French nation. ality, or secured that of their parents. Fortunatelythe numberof to the total population of a country such persons proportionately is nowherevery considerable. There are however censuses which classifythe population not according to place of birth, but according to " nationality," the distinctionmade being between "citizens " or " subjects " on the one hand, and legal " foreigners" on the other. These distinctions

1889.]

RAxENSTEIN-The

Laws of Miqrttion.

243

are not by any means confinedto persons born abroad, but apply also to natives who may have changed their " place of settlement," as the English poor law has it. Where the process of naturalisation and the acquisition of civic rights are easy, or attended by material advantages, there must naturally arise a very great differencein the numbersgiving places of birthon the one hand, and nationalityor "place of settlement" on the other. This difference, in the case of a few countries,is exhibitedin the followingtabular
statements:Population. Natives. or Suhjects Difference.

United Kingdom........ 34,884,848 France . ... 37,930,759 ...... GermanEmpire ........ 46,855,704 ...................... 15,642,102 Hungary Italy ............................ 28,459,628

36,969,573 46,421, 179

15,400,677

34,535,095

2z8,358,807 28,419,592

46,482,912 15,502,976

34,859,240 36,804,228

+ 324) 145 - I65,345 + 6 5,733

+
+

02,29

60,785

in the last column of this little table are due The differences to the naturalisation of foreignersand the presence of natives of colonies in the mother country,and they are not very great. Their amount depends of course upon legislation, and not upon any natural or economic law. In England every person born in the country,as also the children of British subjects born abroad, are treated as British subjects,whilst in France and elsewhere the born in the countryfollowthe nationalityof childrenof foreigners theirfather. These differenceshowever become really formidable when we descend to parishes or "places of settlement," as shown by the following statement of the elements of the population of Hungary:
According to Placeof Birth. Parochial element ........
County National Foreign
, , ,

to According Placeof Settlement. go982

95 79
99 23

14-60
9030 98-55 145

........ ........ ........

0-77

It is obvious that figuresbased on the "place of settlement" are altogether misleading in the case of Hungary; they obscure or even obliteratethe great migratory currents, and should thereforebe used with caution or not at all. Having determined the elementsof population of each country, I shall endeavour to trace and point out the results of migration, firstly in general, and secondlywith referenceto selected localities.

244

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration.

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I considerthe case of a province If, for instance, containing ioo,oooinhabitants and xo,ooo born persons outside (9o,ooo natives of it), and I find that throughout the country there wereenumerated 1So,ooo natives of that province, I safelyconcludethat 6o,oooof its nativeshave migrated to other partsof the country, and thatthisloss has only been compensated forby an inflow of 10,ooo strangers from beyond. The absoluteloss due to migration wouldamount to 5o,oo0 persons, equal to 50 percent.ofthepopulation. Such a province I term a province of " dispersion." Where thereverse process takesplace,that is, where thetotal population of a province is larger than the number of its nativesthroughout the country, we haveto deal witha province of "absorption." It is clear thatthegainsand lossesfrom migration ascertained in thismanner apply onlyto migratory movements whichgo on within thelimits of a State or country. Theytake no accountof thelosses suffered by emigration to foreign losseswhichare parts, more especiallyseverein the case of frontier provinces. These losseshowever can be expressed if we compare thenaturalgrowth of a population, or that'increasewhichis due to an excess of births over deaths,with the actual growth as determined by the census. Where this naturalgrowthis in excess of the actual growth we have before us the process of " dispersion ;" where the reverse is the case we are dealing witha case of absorption.2 As an illustration I select the Duchyof Anhalt, whichhad 232,592 inhabitants in 1880, and 248,i66 in 1885, exhibiting thus an increase of 15,574inhabitants, equivalent to I 29 percent. annually. But as during the same periodthe birthsexceededthe deathsto the numberof 16,738,the naturalgrowth, had therebeen no wouldhave amounted emigration, to 1-38per cent.annually. The loss therefore due to emigration and not compensated for by immigration amountedto 139 - 129 = o-io per cent. This loss would have beenstillmoresevereif in return forthe 59,290 native Anhalters who left their country for other parts of Germany and for foreigncountries, therehad not been a cominflow of 57,500 Germansand foreigners.And thus pensatory whilst Anhaltis clearlya " countyof absorption," and a gainer to the extentof 1'3 per cent., as long as we confine ourselvesto the migratory movements going on withinthe bordersof the GermanEmpire,it shouldbe classedwith counties of dispersion if we desirein additionto thisto takeaccountof the emigration to foreign parts.
2 The methodof computingloss and gain by migration, and emigration, immigration in combination, has been largely used in censusreturns (see, for instance, the various censusreports forthe German Empire, as also the censusof Englandand Wales, 1881, IV, p. 51).

1889.]

Laws of Migration. RAVENSTEIN-The

245

Whenever practicable I have availed myself of both methods of stating " losses" and "gains," and I must confess that the method described last presentsundoubted advantages. There is one other feature in my paper against which I feel bound to warn you, viz., the temptation of looking upon the figureswhich I give as being in the strictsense of the word comparable. My figures are simply relative,and proportional to the total populations to which they refer. It is obvious that the appato the smallrent rate of migrationmust increase proportionately ness of the units of the population with which we deal. The larger or more populous the districts into which we divide a country,the less active will the process of migration appear to be, until by taking a whole country the effectsof migration,if we confineour attention to what is going on among the natives absolutelyneutralise residingwithin the boundaries of the country, each other,exhibitingneither loss nor gain. If foreign residents in the countrybe taken into account, the gain will amount to the numbers of these strangers,and to no more. I will endeavour to make this clear to you by means of a few simple diagrams. Each of the rings (A, B, C, D) in Fig. 1 is supposed to representa parish of Ioo inhabitants,20 of whom are not natives; the circle enclosing each parish we suppose to measure = 1. If now we consolidate these four parishes into a single
FIG. 1. FIGi.2. FIGi.3.

one, the circle enclosing this united parish would be = 2, and not = 4; and although the total numberof inhabitantswould still be 400, yet there would be fewer strangers,for those amongst them who had migrated fromone parish to another would no longer be counted as strangers. If we suppose the rate of migrationto have remained the same, its amount must have diminishedproportionately to the reduced extent of the boundary by which the united parish is brought into contact with outlying parishes. Thus if 8o migrants crossed the boundaries of four separate parishes measuring 4, only half that number are likely to cross a boundary measuring only 2. And thus, whilst the foreign element in each of the separate parishes amounted to 20 per cent.,it amounts to io per cent. only in the united parish, or, in other words, the parochial elementhas increased from8o per cent. to go per cent.

246

RAVENSTEIN- Tie Laws of Migration.

[June,

If instead of consolidating four parishes,we consolidate nine, the result will still be the same if we arrange them symmetrically, placing three to each row. The boundaries of the individual parishes would be = 9, that of the consolidated parish = 3. The strangers, counted for each parish separately, would number 9 X 20 = i8o, but those in the consolidated parish would only number 6o, or 6&66 ... per cent. of the consolidated populationas compared with 20 per cent. in the individual parishes. The reduction is therefore proportional to the reduction in the extent of the line of contact with adjoining outlying parishes, viz., at the rate of 9: 3 = 3: I = 20: 6-66 .... I had hoped to have been able to utilize this simple mathematical illustration for the purpose of reducing the multiplicityof parishes and other divisions with which I have to deal to standard divisions of the same number of inhabitants,but in this I failed, for it is applicable only where these divisions admit of a certain symmetrical arrangement. As such an arrangement rarely, if ever, exists in nature, all attempts to deduce the migrationof any division from that which is going on in another division having a different population must lead to quite misleading results. I very much doubt whether any of our mathematical members would be more successfulthan I have been. Nevertheless the illustrationswhich I have made use of illustrate sufficiently the facts of the case. If for instance you will look at Table I of the Appendix, you will findthat in the separate States of Thuringia the native element varies between 7f+2 and 84+4 per cent., whilst in a consolidated Thuringia it rises to 88-82 per cent.,having been strengthenedin consequence of the natives of one State not being accounted strangersin the others. The UnitedKingdom. Before proceeding to the substance of my paper, I shall place beforeyou a summaryof the migration statistics for the United Kingdom, referringyou for furtherdetails to my formerpaper, published in our Journalfor 1886. The United Kingdom in 1881 had a population of 34,884,848, of whom 34,535,095,or 98,99 per cent., were natives, and 350,800, or i-O1per cent., were persons born abroad. These latter however included all persons born in British colonies, withoutdistinctionof race, and as many as 2I4,I45 of them had been born to, or had acquired the privilege of calling themselves "British subjects." The number of "foreigners" was thereforeonly I36,655, or 0-39 per cent., a very small number compared with the number of foreignersto be found in most other States. This no doubt is to be accounted for by the insular position of the United Kingdom,

1889.]

RAVENSTEINT-Tze

Laws of Migration.

247

of theseforeigners, which whichaccountstoo forthe distribution in countries differs muchfrom whatis to be found havingextended count heads, merely land frontiers.Still,as our census officials of these it is possible thattheinfluence and do notweighqualities, forgoodorevilmaybe muchgreater thanthatexercised foreigners enumerated in other countries. number by a similar ourselves to migration within thelimits of theUnited Confining we findthatEngland, and amongst thenativesthereof, Kingdom, and, to a smallerextent,Scotlandhave been the gainers,they as 78I,I I 9 nativesof Ireland,of whom havingabsorbedas many for which thecounter 562,374 fellto theshareof England;inreturn only carried91,7io natives of England, currents of migration lossofthatcountry Wales,and ScotlandintoIreland,the absolute equivalent to 12-7percent.of amounting thus to 689,409persons, takenas a whole, is thus a vast its population in 1871. Ireland, we take account If howeverin additionto home migration it will be found thateach of the three of international migration, of dispersion, kingdomsmust be placed among those countries the emigration fromwhich is far in excessof the immigration. By naturalgrowthalone, that is by the excess of birthsover deaths, the United Kingdomwould have increasedits population of 13-7per cent., between1871-81to the extent and as theactual an activeinflow of personsbornabroad, increase, notwithstanding to Io-8 per cent., exchangehas this international only amounted resulted in the seriousloss of 2z9 per cent.in the courseof ten years. The German Empire. I begin my surveyof continental Europe with the German Empire, as statistics available for that purposeare exceptionally complete. I oughtto statethat,forobviousreasons, several I haveformed " States" into" geographical of thesmaller provinces." 188.S, had a population The German Empireon 31st December, of 46,855,704, as follows: distributed
Parochial in the 28,263,OOO3 603Z3 enumerated element (persons in which wereborn) . ........ parish they in the 42,279,325 90z 3 enumerated Provincial element (persons in which were born) ....J............ province they National in German} born element (all persons 46,421,179 99-07
093

region of dispersion.

Per clit.

Empire). Foreignelement(bornabroad).434,523

in 1871. At thepresent taken 3This is an estimate baseduponthecensus weaker. is probably somewhat time theparochial element

248

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

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In Table I appendedto this paper the resultsof migration throughout Germany can be clearly traced. I have been able to indicatethe resultsof migration withinthe empire, as also the gains or losses if emigration into foreign countries be takeninto account. If we do not look beyondthe limitsof the empire it will be found that Berlin, Schleswig-Holstein, Elsass, Royal Saxony,Rhineland, and Westphalia have mostlargely profited by an importation of thesurplus population ofother provinces and by the immigration of foreigners, whilstSilesia,Brandenburg (without Berlin),PrussianSaxony,Posen,EasternPrussia,Pomerania, and Mecklenburg have suffered the severest lossesin their natives, notwithstanding an inflow offoreign elements whichhas beenvery considerable in some of these provinces. It shouldhowever be noted that some of the provinces namedabove are frontier provinces,and that we have not therefore taken into accountthe migrants which have gone fromtheminto neighbouring foreign countries. It is obvious, forinstance, thatif we assumethe number ofnativeAlsatians at present in Franceto amountto 200,000, thatprovince, insteadof exhibiting a gain of io per cent.,would reveala loss of 2z8 per cent. of its population. And as thegains of all theseprovinces willbe reduced if emigration intoneighbouring foreign partsbe takeninto account, so also will the losses of frontier provinces be intensified. Posen, as an integralpart of the GermanEmpire,exhibitsa loss of 6-4 per cent.,but would exhibit a loss of 12X2 per cent. if we assumed ioo,ooo native Posenersto have emigrated intotheneighbouring Poland. If international migration be takenintoaccount, thegeographical provinces willfollow each other in a very different orderto that which theyoccupy in mytable,forin that case Berlinand Royal Saxony alone will exhibita gain, realised at the expense of all otherprovinces as wellas of someforeign countries, whilst Posen, West Piussia, Mecklenburg and Pomerania will be foundat the bottom of the list,theyhavingsuffered the severest losses. Had therebeen neither emigration nor immigration the population of the German Empirewouldhave increased at the rate of iU13 per cent. per annum between1880-85,instead of increasing at the reducedrateof 0o70per cent..4 thus exhibiting a loss due to the excessof emigration to 0-43 percent. amounting abound in Germany Short-journey migrants as theydo elsegoing on (1880-84) most activelyfromPomerania(x122 per cent.of population per annum),West Prussia (IxIS per cent.), Schleswig-Holstein (o8 7 per cent.), Posen (ow87per cent.),and Mecklenburg. Between1872 and 1881 the annual increaseamountedto I107, the natural growthto i24 per cent.,and the loss to 0- 17 per cent. consequently
4 The actual loss (1880-85) amounted to 980,212 of whom souls, 443,535 were females.Fromother datawe learn thattrans-Atlantic hasbeen emigration

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

249

where. This is amplyprovedby many instances given in the censusreturns. Thus, out of 120,784 Royal Saxonswho German as manyas 37,057 had goneno furmigrated intoother provinces, of PrussianSaxonyand Silesia. districts therthanthefivenearest in consequence of thismigration townsincrease Thatthelarger at townsand theruralpartsis an a quickerrate thando the smaller undoubted fact,and theydo so at an increasing pace. In 1871 townsof over 2,000 inhabitants onlycontained32-1 per cent.of the population,whilst in 1885 they contained43 7 per cent. between 1880-85increased Towns of over ioo,ooo inhabitants whilst at the rate of 2 41 per cent., annually villagesor parishes of under 2,000 inhabitants decreased0o02 per cent. This looks of the rural parts,whichis not, verymuchlike a depopulation however, peculiarto Germany therefore alone,and cannot without be ascribedto the actionof the land laws, examination further is concerned. as faras the UnitedKingdom thosemigrants Femalespredominate who go onlyshort among and even in entireprovinces, as in Schleswig-Holstein distances, whence are drawn to theneighbouring and Oldenburg, they Hanse fordomestic in whichthe demand servants is considerable. towns, Amonglong-journey migrants theyforma decidedminority, for out of 1,ooo women outsidetheir enumerated, only88 werefound native province,whilst the proportion among men similarly was io6. situated of persons of foreign birthis not so large as for The number so to illustrateby its instancein France, but it is sufficiently the migratory distribution geographical underreview. phenomena the map preparedby me, you will findthat this If youexamine all sides, whether from has invadedGermany element foreign the be formed boundary by thesea or be drawnacrossthe land;. and currents aremost thattheinflowing wherever powerful geographical orinvite andthatthey facilitate features losein strength intercourse, we tracethemintotheinterior. There are of course thefarther to thisrule,butthe onlyones of any importance a fewexceptions are the capitalof the empire (Berlin), and thedistricts of which are the centres. But even in these Wiesbaden and Frankfurt places,whichattracted many foreign settlers notwithstanding that the foreign the census was taken in midwinter, elementis far to what it is in some of the frontier inferior forwhilst districts, in Berlinit onlyconstitutes I135percent. of the population, and it risesto farhigher in WiesbadenI 04 per cent., proportions in such districtsas GermainLorraine (5,o8 per cent.) Hamburg (3 62), Upper Alsatia (3-4I), Upper Bavaria (2 43), Aix la Chapelle (2-40 per cent.), Bautzen (2 28) and others,which the advantage of beingmostaccessible in additionto enjoying to

250

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

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foreigners, are in some instances also great seats of commerceor industry. Of course a large proportionof these foreign migrants may be classed as long-journeymigrants,but the great bulk of them neverthelessshares the peculiarity of all migrants,viz., that they go no further from their homes in search of work than is absolutelynecessary. Hence the bulk of the persons of foreign birth is to be found in the provincesborderingupon the countries fromwhich they came.5 Thus of 155,33i Austrians, I 19,464were found in the frontierprovinces of Bavaria, Saxony (Royal), and Silesia; of the 48,853 Russians, 30,802 were enumerated in Prussia, Posen, and Silesia; of the 45,270 Dutch, 31,785 were resident in Rhineland, and 5,585 in Westphalia. The Swiss abound most in Baden and Elsass; the French6 in Elsass and Lorraine, where 20,345 out of a total of 36,708 have made theirhomes,thus largely compensatingfor the loss of the Alsatians who have migratedinto France; the Danes are most numerousin Schleswig-Holstein and at Hamburg and so on. Only those immigrants who have travelled long distances to reach Germany, such as the English and Americans,are more widely distributedover the country. In further illustrationof the process of migrationgoing on in Germany,I propose to present some details for Berlin, the great centre of absorption,and for East Prussia, a province fromwhich migrationproceeds most actively. The following table furnishesthe informationfor Berlin, its firstpart exhibitingthe elements representedin the population of Berlin, whilst the second part shows to what extent natives of Berlin have found their way into all parts of Germany: x Austrians, r55,35 48,853 Russians,45,Z70 Dutch,36,go2 Swiss, 36,708 Frenclh, 20,848 Danes, 15,007 Americans, 14,889 English, Irish, and Scotch,11,309 Swedes,11,067 Luxemburgers, 8,234 Italians,6,775 Hungarians, 8,844.Belgians, &c. x,865 Norwegians, G Theseare persons bornin France. Thenumber of Frenchmen in Germany whobave retained theirnationality onlyamounts to 24,24I.
5

Totalnumber of persons of foreign birth in Germany, 434,5Z5; including

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN -The Laws of Migration.

Elements in thePopulation ofBerlin. Berlin. ElementsinthePopulationof

251
throughoutGermany.

Distribution of Native Berliners

Geographical Provinces.

Natives of PerCent. Per Cent. PerCent. Per Cent. Per Cent. PerCent. each of of of of of of Province Population of Migrants Number. MigrantsPopulation PopulationNatives Enumerated of of each each from each outside ofeach in Berlin. Berlin. Province. Province. Province. Berlin. Province.
42'3 7

Berlin.557,226 Brandenburg. Pomerania . Silesia.99,743 251,646 81,663 45,324 41,183

42-37

83'o5

557,2zz6

42'3 7

19-13

East Prussia West , . Prussian ... Saxony Mecklenburg

Posen .58,776

6:z I 7 59 4-47 3'44 5 93 0-95 0-97

0o46 0-97 313

77,857
12,450 6,101

Saxony, Kingdom. 12,821

Schleswig Holstein

1X85 040 0-42 0-25

035

2-75

231 2-92

3-42

74 5-42 2-42

1o26
3-2z 2.15

2 2-3

5'04

5600 35-10 27-55 22-28 22-26

59,610
5,130 7,058

24-59
11-01 9-68 9-20 5'98 5-25

z-83 z.58 i 68 0-43

0.42
0-09 030 04I

2 702 1,644
2,276

5299 4-56 6-27

2-40

Z 54 O034 0.I7 oI6 o'o8

o0i6

11-63

9,2X11

I,3P6 3,89I
4,425

1'46 2'04 8X19 1-17

3 46

0oI9

O*33

o I2
,11I

Hanover.12,705 Rhineland. Elsass-Lorraine... Thuringia

11,105

1,306
7,155 7,012

o084
0o10 054 0.53

Hesse and Nassau. Bavaria .3,479

. Westphalia

6,984 1,624
17,516

Baden .1,571 Wiirtemberg

Foreignparts Total .

o0-o

0-27 O I2

0-53

0-08

0-68 031 0-27 006 0110

0-09

o0z6

o065 o-o6 o-o8

0 I0 02z7

4*44 4'10 319 2-03 1'79

_

4-67

3,532 905
2,243

3,496 1,335
1,570

3.93 3'11 3-14

oz6

1-58

1,038 703 395

_

062 0 35

1-19 1-40 2-00 0 92

0-80

o-o8
0'07

OI 3

Oo04

0-09 o0oz 0.04 c o0

C33
-

1,315,287 I00o00

2|79

1570

669,705 100-00 |145

fromit onlyCarried awaywith themI 12,479 native Berliners. Berlin constitutes thus undoubtedly a great and important centre of absorption,although the currentsflowing into it give rise to countercurrentsof no inconsiderable strength: in fact, I6-70 per cent. of the native Berliners live outside Berlin, and this is a higher proportion than the average for all Germany: and all the more remarkable, as Berlin is growingat a rate farin excess of its natural growth. It appears to show that the natives of large towns are as a rule more enterprising, and consequentlymore ready to migrate than are the nativesof smaller towns. By farthe largestcontingent of strangers enumerated in Berlin is furnished by the provinces immediately surrounding the capital, and if the supply from some more distant provinces,such as Prussia, is in excess to what might be expected from their geographical position, this is due to their being frontierprovinces. The supply from Thuringia and Westphalia, on the other hand, is curtailed by diverting

We learnfrom this table thatwhilstBerlin absorbed740,571 nativesof other partsof Germany, the counter-currents emanating

252

Laws of Migration. RAVENSTEiN-The

[June,

currents which draw many of the migrants from these provinces into the more accessible manufacturingdistricts of Saxony and Westphalia. There is also a disturbing element in the large garrison maintained at Berlin, which notwithstandingthe local character of the military forces of Germany, includes natives fromall parts of the empire. Speaking generally, however, the bulk of the migrants who have swelled the population of Berlin have come from the neighbouring provinces, and similarly the Berliners who have forsakentheir native place for other parts of Germanyhave gone no furtherthan the neighbouring provinces, as many as 53 per cent. of them being found in rural Brandenburg. Females form a majority of the migrants who have settled in Berlin, but this majority has been secured solely at the expense of the more accessible provinces. Females too form a majority among the native Berlinerswho have gone to residein otherpartsof Germany. In the next table we show the dispersion of the migrantsfrom Eastern Prussia:
Natives of East Prussia in each. Per Cent. of Migrants. Percentage of Population of each Province.

Province.

................. Westphalia Schleswig-Holstein........ Pomerania................. Mecklenburg................. Rhineland ................. Hanover ........... Posen ............................ Saxony,Prussian ............ ........ Elsass ......... . Silesia ......... Hesse and Nassau ........... Saxony,Kingdom............ ........... Thuringia . Baden. ................5 Bavaria ................. Wiirtemberg................. Total ................

Berlin ................. Brandenbur .................

East Prussia . ................ ................. West ,

1,903,043 54,173
45,324

26 63
22z26 8*74 705

97-12
3,84 3 44
0-76

17,794

14,324 13,420 7,753

2,735 9,417

70 3'8i
I34

0-61

15,900

4,125 2,334

2,323

6,794

6,5169

4-63 3x34
I14 2x02

1*32

0-37 0-31
0-15

0.51 0,41

0,60

2-54

0,24

0 30

2,575 598 82 747 283

z6 0.30 oz8 o036

014
I00 00

V14

0 09 0-08 006 004 0 01 0 01

010

2)106,413

There too we find that the bulk of the migrants have not proceeded very far, but that large manufacturingcentres like Westphalia and the Rhineland do not fail in their attractive power, notwithstanding their distance from the centre of dispersion.

1889.3

RAYENSTEIN-T7he

Laws of Migration.

253

-The Netherlands.
4,012,693

The Netherlands,on 31st December, 1879, had a population of souls, distributedas follows:
Parochial element ................ 2,697,495 67r2z per cent. Provincial ,. ........... 3,551,976 88-51 , National ................ 3,936,118 98C ,, ,................. Foreign 75,380 91 Of unknown 1,195 birthplace

The foreign element included, in addition to 7,604 natives of Dutch colonies, 42,o26 Germans, I8,8i6 Belgians, i,6i4 English, and 5,320 personsof other nationalities. As the increase of population between 1869 and 1879 amounted to 433,i64 souls, whilst the natural growthwould have yielded an increase of 449.864, there resulted a small loss of i6,700 souls, which is due to international migration. An examination of Table II in the Appendix clearly shows that Holland proper, with its big and growing towns, has been the great absorbentof population, whilst Limburg, Overyssel, and Gelderland, notwithstandingtheir strong foreign elements, have been the most active centres of dispersion. The towns throughoutthe country increased (1870-79), 17-25 per cent. in population, the rural parts only 6-8 per cent., proportionswhich tell their own tale. Females are as usual greater migrants than men, forwhilst throughoutthe kingdom the two sexes are equal, there are only 94 females to o00 males among those persons who were found to live in their native parishes. Migration is steadily increasing. The parochial element, in 1849, still mustered69 og per cent. of the population; by 1879, as we have seen, it had been reduced to 67-22 per cent. Foreigners are most numerous in Limburg, a German border province of great length and little width, and in the maritime province of Zeeland. Dutcb emigrationis directedmainlyto European countries,and the number of Dutchmen in Germany,Belgium, and France, is double that of the Dutchmen enumeratedin the United States. Belgium. Belgium, on 31st December, 1880, had 5,520,009 inhabitants, distributed according to place of birth and residence in the followingmanner:Parochialelement............ National ,..............
Foreign
,

............

3,709,977 67'zo per cent. 5,376,748 99 7,,

143,261 ohz6

No details as to the distribution of the natives of each province are given, but we are safe in assuming that home-migration flows
VOL. LII.
PART II. S

254

Laws of Mligration. RAVENSTEIN-Tlte

[June,

towards the provinces which increase most rapidly in population, namely, Antwerp, Brabant (with Brussels), and Liege. As the natural growth exceeds the actual increase of the population, Belgium is a loser by emigration. This emigrationhoweveris not countriesas to the neighbouring so much directedto trans-Atlantic countryof France, where 432,265 " Belgians " were enumeratedin 1881, although all the natives of Belgium living outside Belgium did not probably exceed half a million. The parochial element in is given, viz., Antwerp the only two towns for which information and Brussels, is exceptionally strong, mustering 66-ii and 5I'03 per cent. respectively; the foreign elements attaining at the same time the high percentagesof 8-47 and 8-53 per cent. Migration is increasing, for the parochial element has fallen from69-4 per cent. in 1886, to 67-2 per cent. in 1880, and women exceed the men among short-journeymigrants. This is clearly proved by the fact of there being only 97 females to ioo males in the parochial element, whilst among the total population of the countrythe two sexes exactly balance each other. to Persons of foreignbirth"are most numerous,proportionately the population,in the provinces of Liege, Antwerp, Luxemburg, and Brabant, the firstthree being frontierprovinces, the last the see Table III in the seat of the capital. For detailed information Appendix. Luxemburg. The Grand Duchy of Luxemburg has within recent years become a great centre of dispersion, and if its population is of popuneverthelessstill increasing,this is solely due to an inflow lation from beyond its borders. Between 31st December, 1880, and 1st December, 1885, the number of natives enumerated in Luxemburg actually fell from I97,027 (940oo per cent.) to i95,68i (91 74 per cent.), whilst the foreign element rose from 12,543 to 17,602.8 In 1871 there were 3,220 natives of Germany in the Grand Duchy; in 1880, 8,412; in 1885, I[,863. The number of native Luxemburgers residing in other European States probably reaches 50,000, including zs,000 (?) in France, I i,ooo in Germany, 8,ooo in Belgiam, &c. Switzerland. The federal census taken in December, 1880, only distinguishes the inhabitantsaccording to civil rights or " place of settlement,"
34,196 Germans(I8,z68 in Liege), 7,760 Luxemburgers (i4,z63 in Antwerp), 3,799 English,5,011 others. (4,227 in BelgianLuxemburg), 8 Viz., I1,863 Germans, 3,028 Belgians, 1,313 French,496 Italians, 41S and Hungarians, Austrians 745 Swiss,68 Dutch,34 English.
7 51,104

Frenclh (16,735

in Hainant, 12.085 in Brabant), 41,391

Dutch

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

255

in Switzerland are perhaps to settlement and as the laws referring the most illiberal in all the world, and vary fromcanton to canton, the figurespresented give a most distorted picture of the migration that is going on. Birth in a canton gives no claims to citizenship in that canton, and thus it happens, that full civic rights are of the inhabitantsof Switzerland, and enjoyed only by a minority local taxes are voted and expended without the majority of taxpayers being in any way consulted. The results for three recent censuses are as follows (in per cent.): 1850. .64-5 element Parochial Cantonal
,.

1870. 546

1880. 49-3
79.3

90A4 30

833 943 5.7

.973 All Swiss citizens ". "Foreigners

92,6 74

Comparing the natural with the actual growth, it would appear that between 1870 and 1880 69,930 natives of Switzerland emigrated, and that 56,94i foreignerstook up their residence in Switzerland, the actual loss amounting thus to I2,989 persons. The numberof natives of Switzerland in other European countries appears to be larger than that of the Swiss in the resb of the world. In the four States borderingupon Switzerland the ascertained numberof Swiss amounted about 1880 to 132,000,whilst in the United States they numberedonly 88,6oo. Austria. The Census Returns for Austria furnish no informationon the place of birth of the inhabitants, but merely classify them according to their " Zustiindigkeit,"that is place of settlement. Bohemians, for instance,who settle in Vienna, and acquire the privileges of citizens there, are counted as Viennese. We are justifiedin believing that the bulk of the migrantsdo not trouble themselvesabout these civic rights. Still the number of those who do must be sufficiently large to materially tone down the picture of migrationwhich we present. In Vienna, forinstance, 6,755 persons were granted the rights of citizenship in 1884, bult this included 4,852 dependents,many of whom may of course have been Viennese by birth. Austria,on 31st December, 1880, had a populationof 12,144,244 souls, distributedas follows:s2

256

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

Number.

Percentage of Population ofAustria.

15,237,343 17,790,241 ,, Provincial ......... 20,398,228 National ........ 21,794,331 183,422 Hungarians ................
Germans ...............

Parochial element ....... District ,.........

69.7z 8 1C25 98.4z o.83

0-42

93o0Z

Otherforeigners ........
* Among whom were 40,152 Italians,

93,442

73,149*
I i,654 Russians,

0-33

Romanians,2,347 Turks,2,287 French, 1,988English,&c.

5,885 Swiss, 2,667

An examination of Table IV (in the Appendix) shows very rates in the distinctlythat migrationproceeds at vastly different various provinces constituting the Austrian monarchy. This is exhibited by the not merelyto be gathered from the differences parochial element,but more especially fromthe numbersbelonging to each province who were enumeratedin provinces in which they had not acquired civic rights at the time the census was taken. In the case of frontier provinces, however, it should not be forgotten that they would occupy a different position were we able to trace the migrants who have gone from them to foreign parts, even though it be merelyto the nearest parish lying beyond the frontier. Vorarlberg,the Tyrol, and the Bukowina would not then rank among provinces which have gained frommigration,for they have gained only if we do not look beyond the political boundaries of the empire. Austria at large may fairly be classed among those countries whose natural incrementis in excess of the actual growth of its population, but this excess is not very considerable, the births between the last censuses having exhibitedan excess over deaths of I,8i8,ooI, as compared with an actual increase of 1,749,264 souls. And whilst other countries send their surplus population across the ocean, Austria sends hers mainlyto neighbouringStates, Hungary and the German Empire alone containing 354,ooo residents of Austrian birth, whilst the whole of the United States only contain 124,000. The main currentsof this frontiermigration flowinto Germany and Hungary, but especiallyinto Germany, either up the valley of the Danube, down that of the Weser, or across the Ore mountains into Saxony. The two currents which flowinto Hungary, the one down the valley of the Danube towards Budapest, the otherbetweenthe valleys of the Drave and the Save, are almost if not wholly neutralised by contrarycurrents, which cross the Austrian boundaries at the same places and elsewhere, and which result in the exchanges of natives almost balancing each

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

237

other,198,I I4 Austrians having been enumeratedin Hungary, and 183,422 Hungarians in Austria. Had Hungarians by birth been counted in Austria, instead of Hungarians by nationality,a much closer balance would have been foundto exist. The map exhibiting the foreignelementsof the population clearly exhibits the manner migration is going on: how the in which this trans-frontier they penetrateinto migratorycurrentslose in strengththe further until at lengththeydie away altogether. the interiorof the country, occupies in Austria,as in othercountries, The bulk of the foreigners the frontier districts,the onlyexceptionsbeing certaintownswhich and industry, are centresof commerce and attractwhat I have called long-journeymigrants. Comparing the various provincesof the empire,one is struck with the fact that the migratorymovement appears to be more most and industry are flourishing actively going on wherecommerce freely. If Bohemia is not among these provinces,it is because of its heterogeneouscomposition. The Bohemia of popular imagination, with its factoriesand glass works,lies to the north and the northeast, and is no doubt a region which absorbs migrants,but the greater part of Bohemia is an agricultural country,which sends forthswarmsofmigrantsto otherparts ofthe empireand beyondits borders,but withinwhich migrationgoes on but slowly. Moravia and Silesia occupy prettymuch the same positionas Bohemia, and their losses would be more considerable still, had they not largely been balanced by an inflow of foreign elements from Prussian Silesia, Poland, and Hungary. Apart from portionsof other provinces, Carniola is perhaps most typical as a centre of dispersion, having increased but slowly, notwithstandingthe retentionof a very considerable provincial element,amounting to 97 per cent. of featuresof the Tyrol. on the the total population. The migratory other hand, appear to bear out the general belief that the Tyrolese cling with especial love to their mountainhome, forout of 801,139 enumeratedthroughoutAustria, only24,036 or 3 per cent. Tyrolese, were found outside their native province,whilst of Bohemians as many as 7-7 per cent. were found living outside Bohemia. Of course,in neither case have we been able to take account of the natives of these provinceswho have migrated beyond the borders of the empire,but it may safely be assumed that their numbers would not materially change these relative proportions. Comparing the German half of the Tyrol with the Italian half,we find that the Germans are less sedentaryin their habits than their Italian countrymen,though both enjoy the advantage of being able to cross the frontierinto provinceswhere their respective languages are spoken. The parochial element in the German Tyrol only amounts to 66-5 per cent. of the population,whilst in the Italian

258

RAVENSTEIN-TDie

Laws of Migration.

[June,

Tyrol it reaches 87-5 per cent.; the provincial elements being respectively95-4 and 97-9 per cent. The " Wandertrieb," which the Teutonic race sometimesclaims as a characteristicpeculiar to itself,therefore makes itself feltalso in the Tyrolesehills,or ought to the greatersterility and we not, rather,to ascribe this difference smaller resources of the German Tyrol ? Those provinces of Austria which appear to profit most largely from the migration going on within the empire, as well as from fromabroad, are Lower Austria,Styria, Salzburg, and immigration the city of Trieste. Lower Austria owes this position mainlyto the Kaiserstadt, Vienna, which shares with other large cities the peculiarityof growing largely at the expense of the surrounding country. Vienna in 1881 had 726,1i5 inhabitants,of whom 250,872 (34-5 per cent.) were Viennese citizens,whilst94,439 (X3 per cent.) had their "legal settlement" in other parts of Lower Austria. Every province of Austria furnished a contingent to swell its " (i2@9 per cent.) the population, whilst among " foreigners Hungarians (66,578) and Germans (i8,201) were most largely represented. But as Vienna shorn of its suburbs presents a less favourable object for tracing the currents of migrationin Austria than does the province at large of which it formspart, I preferdealing with the whole of Lower Austria at once. The population of this province (2,330,62 i) included the followingelements:
Natives from Provinces, &c. eachProvince in Lower Austria. of Percentage all Natives of eachProvince. of Migrants Percentage eachProvince from Austria.

Lower Austria ................ 1,551,691 ........... ......... CStyria C Upper Austria ................ . Bohemia................... 309,960 Moravia ............................ 176,025 ................... 113,992 Hungary
I

96,9
ri69 4-60
5-2Z -

34,479

19,115

44.0

7z 6

5514 68-1

73,0 67-7 14-9 22-9 32-6 43-3

20-2 13-2

| Salzburg................... ................... Germany .................... |Silesia

.................... rCarinthia

{Dalmatia ...................

4,654 2,510 30,455 32,935 ~alicia ................................ .22,077 Oarniola ........................... 5,787 982 Trieste ............................... Istria ............ 406 ......... 630 Gorz ................. 5,581 Tyrol. 486 ................... Vorarlberg Croatia, &c................... ,178 Bukowina ..................... Foreign parts (excluding Hungaryand Germany)

I-33
5-6i 1I3

.74

0-37 1.

0-27

O-I4 0.70

34

15-3 2-9 23-3 151 31-6 12-8 16*3

2-1

0-48 5
019

1,024 11915 1

391

o-o8

5-1

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration.

259

It will thus be seen that the bulk of the migrants to be found in Vienna have come from the adjoining provinces, which have been the most liberal contributaries, absolutely,as well as relatively to the numberof migrantswhich theyhave sent forthaltogether. If Bohemia contributedso much more largely than otherprovinces which apparentlyenjoy greater geographical facilities,this is due to the positionof that countryon the frontier. We can take into account only those Bohemians who have been enumerated in Austria, but not the large numberto be foundin the neighbouring districts of Bavaria, Saxony, and Prussian Silesia. And what applies to Bohemia applies equally to other frontierprovinces,and more especially to Salzburg, Silesia, and Galicia. The percentages allotted to these provinces would have been lower had we been able to take account of the whole of the natives of these provinces, instead of only those among them who resided in Austria when the census was taken. That such is really the fact is amply proved if we convert Styria into a frontierprovince, by looking upon. Carniola, Carinthia, the Tyrol, and all outside them as a foreign border land. By doing this the Styrians enumerated in Lower Austria would form 75 8 per cent. of the migrants from that province,instead of formingonly 44 per cent. At all events our table, although presenting a distorted picture of the facts, neverthelessproves that the bulk of the migrantsfromthe border provincesfindtheir way into Lower Austria, and that distance and facilities of access are important factors, even in the face of divertingcurrentsproduced by other centres of attraction. As to femalemigration,the Austrian statistics show once more that females form a majority among short-journey migrants, for 73 per cent. of the Austrian males were enumerated in their own parish, whilst the proportionof -womenin a similar position was only 7i. Among migrants going longer distances, however, the females are in a decided minority.
Htungary.

The kingdom of Hungary, including Croatia and Slavonia, had in 1880 a population of 15,642,102 souls, constituted as to birthplaces in the followingmanner:
........ 11,653,392 74-6oper cent. Born in the parishin whichenumerated ,, ........ 14,103,460 90g30 county ,, ,, Total bornin Hungary...................... 15,400,677 9855 198,114 I-27 Born in Austria...........,.................. otherforeign countries ........................ 27,413 o-i8 , 15,898 Birthplace not known ...

I have given the details for each countyor " comitat" in the
Appendix (Table V). Unfortunately, although the inquiries as to

260

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

birth places were exceedingly minute, the results, as published, prove but a halting guide when inquiring into the laws which govern migration. The census publicationsenable us to determine us the elements of the countypopulations,but theyneitherinform as to the total number of natives of each county,nor as to their dispersionthroughoutthe kingdom. Nevertheless, the recorded number of births and deaths justifies us in placing Hungary among regions of dispersion, notwithstandinga very remarkable inflow of foreign elements. The natural growth between 1870-80 amounted to 486,359 souls, notwithstandingaui extraordinarysevere visitation of cholera9in 1872-73, whilst the actual growthonly reached 229,013. Hungary thus sufferedan absolute loss of 256,346 of her children. If am inclined to believe that the majorityof these emigrantsmust have been Non-Magyars, for if we examine an ethnological map of Hungary, we shall find that Slavs, Germans, and Romanians, occupy more especially the periphery of the kingdom, and that by merelycrossing the boundary they will findthemselvesamong kinsmen,speaking the same language and observing similar customs. Not so the Magyars of Central Hungary. If I am correct in this supposition, the process of migration should result in a, gradual Magyarization of the country,unless, indeed, we assume that the Magyars migrating into other districts of the same kingdom become denationalised, which is not probable. I am inclined,too, to believe that this outflowingcurrent largely sets in the directionof the Balkan peninsula. This outflowof natives is in a large measure made lp by an inflowof foreigners. The numberof " foreigners,"and especially of natives of the neighbouring provinces of Austria, is very considerable. Our map shows very clearly the method of this foreign invasion. One stream,and that the principal one, appears to follow the broad valley of the Danube, until the absorbent powerof the capital weakens its strength; another stream enters the country to the south-west,and spreads over the kingdom of Croatia and system Slavonia, which since the abolition of the militaryfrontier appears to have made considerable progressin wealth and populaof popution.10 The Carpathians form no obstacle to an overflow gate " and the passes lation from Galicia, and throughthe "Wiron of the TransylvanianAlps otherforeignershave found their way into the country. The preponderance of the Austrians amongst
9 Th 6 natural epidemic, wouldhaveamounted beenno cholera growth, had there to z,265,000 souls,beingat the annualrate of o07Z per cent. 10 In Croatia-Slavonia, between 1870-80exceeded theactualgrowth at all events, notwiththe natural to the extentof 5,932 souls,and this home-rule province, constitutes a of the empire,consequently on the frontier standingits situation centre percent. of absorption, to owo6 its gain amounting

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration.

261

these foreign residents in Hungary is very marked. Only in five countiesof distantTransylvania are theyoutnumbered by foreigners of other nationalities, namely, by Romanians. The tendency of this foreigninvasion is in the directionof the lower Danube and towards the Balkan peninsula,provingonce morethat geographical features constitute a very important element in determiningthe directionof migratory currents. But if we are pretty safe as to the character of the whole country,our available information does not enable us to divide the kingdominto regions of absorptionand dispersion. We are however safe in assuming that those counties which have increased their populations at an exceptional rate, must be numbered among "counties of absorption;" whilst those, at the other extremity, whose population has been dwindling, and which at the same time muster a strong native county element,are foremostamong counties of dispersion. The formerclass has increased its population far in excess of what could have been the result of natural growth; whilst in the latter natural growthhas been outstripped by migration into neighbouring counties holding out greater material prospects. We shall then findthat there exist two great regions of attraction in Hungary, viz., the counties bordering -uponthe Danube as far as and even beyond Budapest, and the more fertile portionof Croatia, as far eastwards as Peterwardein. Kronstadt in Transylvania mightperhaps be added to these as a minor centre of attraction. The counties which appear to have furnishedthe largest number of migrants are those lying in the mountainousregionsof the Carpathians and of Transylvania. The townsthroughoutthe country have grownat the expense of the surrounding rural districts, for between 1869-80 the towns of Hungary increased 457,244 souls in population, whilst the rural districtsactually suffered a loss of 318,484 souls. Women certainly are greater migrants than men, but they go shorter distances. Men actually constitute a majority of the parochial element, clearly showing that many more women than men must have left their native places to seek theirfortuneselsewhere. Among migrantshoweverwho have gone longer distances the men are, as a rule, in the majority. Budapest calls for special notice. The capital has grown with surprising rapidity since it became the centre of a kingdom,all but independent of Vienna. Its population between 1869 and 1880 increased 33-3 per cent., and if we examine into its elements we discover at once that this increase is not due to natural growth, which is very small indeed, but almost exclusively to an inflowof strangersfromall parts of the kingdom,as also from the neighbouring provinces of Austria. The Hungarian census returns do

262

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws

of Migration.

[June,

not enable me to analyse this population as I have been able to do in the case of many English towns, and I must therefore content myself with presenting the following summary, based upon information published in M. Joseph K6r6si's admirable "Die " Hauptstadt Budapest in Jahre 1881," where also a map is to be found illustratingthis process of recruiting:
Counties, &c. Natives of each in Residing Budapest. Budapest. Percentage a of Population of Budapest. Percentage of fPopulation Counties, &c.,named in the FirstColumn.

Budapest............ ....... 151,981 Pest, rural ................... 27,496 Srvuhlweissenburg (Feher).... 12,710 Komorn ........... ........ 6,292 Gran (Esztergom).2 . 2.449 Hont ......... .......... ,474 Raab (Gydr) ................... 3,516 . .................... Lipt Tur6cz ................... 4,628 1,480
?

4z-7 7'73
3-57
I

42-72
4-35 6-06

o269 0o98
0?99
c30

77

4-12 3148 3 00
3-20

4z

622

3-22

Rest of Hungary ................ 102,216 AustrianEmpire .......... 33,004 Otherforeign parts ........... 5,200 Not known............................ 1,236 Total ..............
355,682*

z8.74 9.z7

0 73
0-08

r46 036

100-00

* This is the "residential" population(Wohnbev6lkerung), whichdiffers to some extent fromthe actual civil populationgivenin the appendix.

easterly current is losingin intensity.

On examining this table it will be seen that the bulk of the migrants are derived from the counties immediatelysurrounding the capital, with a decided tendencyof the counties lying westward a larger contingent than the counties lying to the east furnishing and south-east. This only illustratesthe fact of a main currentof migration flowing from Austria down the Danube as far as Budapest, where its strength becomes exhausted." There are however, two counties (Lipt6 and Turocz) which lie far away in the Carpathians, but which nevertheless furnish a much larger contingent, proportionatelyto their population, than other counties which are geographicallymuch more accessible. This circumstance has led M. K6r6si to make the assertion that geographical position, that is to say distance from the centre of attraction, has nothing to do with migration. In this I believe he is mistaken. There are, of course, exceptional circumstances, but distance from the centre of attraction,modified by facilities of access, and the 11 A comparison of the censuses taken in 1869 and 1880 shows that this

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

263

would appear to be in all existence of rival centresof attraction, cases the principal factorto be taken into account. It is not with the population of these distant counties with which we ought to compare the migrantsfromthemwhich are to be found in Budapest, who have left these counties but withthe total numberof migrants to seek their fortuneselsewhere. As to sexes, we findthat the females preponderate among the Hungarian migrantswho come to Budapest-there are i i i females to ioo males-and that this is more especially the case with reference to the counties in the more immediatevicinity of the capital, which furnish the largest contingents of domestic servants. Among foreigners,on the other hand, the males preponderate largely, the only exceptions being the English, Swiss, and French migrants,amongst whom governessesare verynumerous. The huge currents of migrationwhich set in the direction of Budapest have naturallyproduced countercurrentsof weaker force, but still traceable. And these currents even Lipto and Turocz have experienced, notwithstandingtheir obscure position in the natives of Budapest, as many Carpathian hills. Out of I75,223 as 23,242 (I3yz6 per cent.) resided in 1880 outside their native town. The Balkan Peninsula. Our knowledge of the population of the States occupying the Balkan peninsula has very considerablyincreased since the great detailed to enable us war of liberation,but is not yet sufficiently to gain an insight into the currents of migration which are traversing it in various directions. Still, making the best use of the materials extant and within my reach, I do not hesitate to say that all these countries(with the exception of the provinces still under Turkish rule, concerningwhich we have no trustworthy knowledge) increase their populationat the expense of the neighbouring countries. The increase of the actual population of late years has throughoutbeen very considerable,and far in excess of the natural growth,as ascertained by a registrationof births and deaths:AnnuialIncrease. Countries. Actual Growth. Natural Growth Per cnt. Gain.

Bosnia and Herzegowina (1879-85).... Servia (1879-84) ........................... Romania (1860-84) ........................... Bulgariaand EastRoumelia(1881-87) Greece (1870-79) ...........................
,

Per cnt.

2-41 2-22

Per cnt.
0-

0 73 1-59 1-59

o-68 o083

I84

038

005

0-76

264

RAVENSTEIN-TThe Laws of Migration.

[June,

If these statisticscan be trusted,the provinces recently freed fromthe governmentby the Turks are more rapidlyincreasing in population than any other part of Europe, and this increase, at least in some of them,is undoubtedlydue to an inflowof population fromabroad. Bulgaria. Bulgaria, on 13th January,1881, had a population of 2,007,919 souls, of whom 37,635, or i-88 per cent., are stated to have been born abroad. This comparativelylarge proportionof persons of foreignbirth,in a country as yet so little developed, is accounted for by its extended boundaries,which bring it into contact with many foreign countries. The foreign element varies, in the between 1io and 9-9 per cent. It is smallest in districts, different the remote and least accessible regions of the Central Balkans, and most considerablein the east, where Bulgaria opens upon the Black Sea and along the Danube. The foreign element amounts to 9g9 per cent. in Varna, to 5 5 per cent. in the adjoining districtof Provadnaye (Provady), to .6 per cent. in Russe (Rushchuk), 4+6 per cent. in Silistria, to 2 and to 2V3 per cent. in Vidin. No details as to the origin of this foreign element are given, but we may safely conclude that it includes a large proportionof Austrians and Hungarians. Romania. Our informationrespecting the population of this interesting State is most incomplete. Births and deaths are registered,but no census has been taken since 1859-60, in which year the two principalitiesare supposed to have had a population of 4,424,96i souls. As 786,768 more persons were born between 1860 and 1884 than died, the population at the close of 1884 ought to have amounted to 5,2II,729 souls, if its increase had depended upon natural growthalone. If we can trust an estimateof the population made for1884, which places it at 5,268,ooosouls, the immigration between 1860 and 188-1must have much exceeded emigration. We are inclined to think that Romania is a countryof absorption, which receives large accessions to its population fromthe neighbouring States of Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria, and perhaps also fromRussia, but in the absence of a census, it is quite impossible to fixthe amount.'2
12 M. L. Cretzulesco(" Bulletin" of the Romanian Geographical Society, 1876) estimates the natural growthbetween1860 and 1873 at 365,900, the a gain of 282,ioo by immiat 648,ooo souls,and therefore actualgrowth assumes whichappearsto us to be far in excessof the truth. According to him gration, therelived in Romania,exclusiveof the Dobruja (1873) 85,ooo Slavs, 29,500 Hungarians,39,ooo Germans,8,ooo Armenians, &c. Many of 5,ooo Greeks, theseare,however, nativesof Romaniaand notmigrants.

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

265

these were natives of that district,and how many immigrants. Denmark.

2,471 Germans,&c., but it is quite impossible to say how many of

In the Dobraja therewere enumeratedin 1878 i6,22o Russians,

Denmark on 1st February, 1880, had x,969,039 inhabitants, distributedaccording to places of birth as follows: of Denmark Natives ..................
,,

. 1,904,750 96-79 percent. 1,306 o o5 ,, countries 3-16 it foreign .62,983

Iceland,Danish colonies ....

Amongst persons of foreignbirth there were 24,148 Swedes, Scbleswigers, I , 145 other Germans,and 2,823 Norwegians. Foreigners are most numerous in the capital, where they form 7-96 per cent. of the total population (nearly one-half Swedes), and they are least so in the rural parts of the kingdom (2-12 per cent.). As the natural growth (1870-80) amounted to 224,200, whilst the actual increase of the population only reached i84,298, Denmark, during this decade, suffereda loss of 39.902 natives, and consequently takes rank among regions of dispersion. The goal of a majority among the Danish emigrants is North America. The inflowv of natives of neighbouringcountriesis far larger than are the counter currents of migrantsissuing fromDenmark, and whilst the numberof Danes in Germany,Sweden, and Norway, is only 27,625, that of natives of these countries in Denmark amounts to 60,123. Norway. The population of Norway on 31st December,1875, was divided as followsas to place of birth and residence (see Table VI):22,007

District National Foreign

Parochial element................1,319,912 73'o5percent.

,,

,,.................
,,

................ 1,575,916 1,769,640 ................ 37,260

87'zI 98-94
z2o6

,, ,,

Total....................

1,806,900 ioooo

,,

As the natural growth of the population (1866-75) amounted annually to I-22 per cent., whilst the actual growthonly reached o-6o per cent., Norway must take its place amongst regions of dispersion, and the vast majority of Norwegians who have left their native country have found a new home in the United States.'3 Migration within Norway itself (see Table VI in the Appendix) has yielded the largest profits to the two cities of Kristiania and
13

Isles3,203, in the UnitedStates 18 1,729.

Norwegiansin Sweden 4,433, Denmark 2,823,

Germanyx,865, British

266

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration.

[June,

Bergen, and next to these rank the two northern districts of Tromsoe and Finmark, which owe their position mainly to an inflowof migrantsfromthe neighbouringdistrictsof Sweden and Finland. The greatest loss, on the other hand, was sufferedby Kristiansamt, a district shut off from the sea, and having no contact with foreign countries. That the towns are the largest gainers is most clearly shown by comparing the city of Bergen with the rural districtof Bergenhus which surroundsit. Females are greater migrantsthan the males, forthe parochial element only includes 104 females to ioo males, whilst among the rest of the population the proportionis as II 2 100, and throughout the countryas 1o6: 100. Of the 37,260 foreigners,as many as 29,340 were natives of Sweden. The foreignelement is strongestin Finmark (I1232 per cent.), and next to it in Kristiania (6 i9 per cent.), and the districts immediately adjoining the capital. A very strong current of migration sets fromSweden into Norway, whilst the outgoing currentsare strongerthan the inflowing ones as regards Denmark, Germany,and all other countries. Sweden. The population of Sweden included on 31st December, 1880, the followingelements: Parochial element................3,642,514 79'9zpercent.
District(Liin) element ........ 4,035,352 National element .................... 4,539,046 , Foreign .................... 18,582 Not ascertained .................... 8,040 4,565,668 88,54
04I
,,

99-59
,

iooC0

As the population of Sweden, between 31st December, 1870, and 31st December, 1880, increased 397,143 souls, whilst the natural growth yielded a surplus of 535,897 souls, that country, like the greater part of Europe, takes its place among regions of dispersion. It is supposed that 275,ooo natives of Sweden resided at the time of the last census in foreign countries, of whom 194,337 were enumeratedin the United States, 28,826 in Norway, 24,150 in Denmark, and ii,885 in Germany. Sweden therefore is a centre of dispersion,even though we take account only of her European neighbours,for the number of persons of foreign birth who have taken up their abode in Sweden is relatively very small. If we confineourselves to that migration which is going on within the limits of Sweden, we shall discover (see Table VII in the Appendix) that there exist four districts of absorption. The firstof these includes the maritimeregion from the Sound to the

1889.]

RAVEKSTEiN-The

Laws of Miigration.

267

Norwegianborder(with Gbteborg); the second includes the capital to the north-westof it; the (Stockholm), and the "h1ns " lyingf third is represented by North Bothnia (Norrbotten); and the to the island of Gotland. It should however he fourthis confined observed that the "hins " of Jomtland and North Bothnia lie on the frontier,and that many of their natives have crossed into Norway. By adding these emigrants to the migrants actually enumeratedin Sweden, these two " ians " would take their place among regions of " dispersion." by migrationat the expense of the rural parts of Towns profit the country, for whilst between 1871 and 1880 the loss due to home and internationalmigrationamounted to I38,754 souls,' the towns actually made a gain of i00,875 souls. Female migrants are more numerous than male migrants, for there are only 10o48 females to ioo males in the parochial element, whilst there are Io6-I7 in the district element,and io6-i5 in the national element. Migrationhas undoubtedlyincreased since the development of means of communication,for in 1860 the district element still formed 92-8 per cent. of the population, whilst in 1880 it only in 1860 only 7 per formed88-4 per cent. Or, to put it differently, cent. of the native population lived outside their native district,as compared with i i I per cent. who did so in 1880. their number is small, and the bulk of them As to foreigners, namelyDenmark (4,575), countries, has come fromthe neighbouring Norway (4,433), Finland (3,401), and Germany (3,289). They are most numerousin such towns as Stockholm,Malm6, and Goteborg, districts. as also in the frontier Finland. Finland, on 31st December, 1880, had 2,046,730 inhabitants,of whom only 14,052 (o-68 per cent.) were of foreignbirth,including 7,947 Russians, 3,693 Swedes, 522 Germans, and i,890 others. The natural growth of the population is considerable,for between 1870 and 1880 it amounted to I '49 per cent. yearly, but as the actual growth is larger still (i *S per cent.), Finland, notwitbstanding its remote position, and apparent poverty in natural resources,is one of those countrieswhich increase to some extent at the expense of their neighbours. The gain, however, is not very large, having amounted between 1870 and 1880 to only 10,905 souls. Russia. The population returns from the Russian Empire still leave lossof 239,629 souls. greater a correspondingly suffering parts
14 Actual growth397,143, naturalgrowth531,897, loss 138,754,

therural

268

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

much to be desired,and theyleave us altogetherin doubt as to the birth-places of the inhabitants. We are however in possession of apparently trustworthyreturns of those persons, whether who have openly crossed the frontiers, Russians or foreigners, and these afford us some insight into the " exchange " which is going on between European Russia on the one hand, and the outer world on the other. We gather from these returns that the number of foreigners who enteredEuropean Ruqssiabetween 1851 and 1886 was greater who left that empire, by I,733,44I than the number of foreigners thus exhibitinga very considerableinflow of population. On the otherhand, 846,931 more Russians left their native countryduring the period under review than entered it. Balancing profitsand losses, we thus find that Russia in the course of these thirty-six years gained an accession of 886,5io souls to her population. These gains (or losses) fluctuate considerably during different epochs, as may be seen fromthe followingtabular statement:Gainfrom Foreign Immigration. 1851-60 '61-70 '71-80 '81-86
......, 'I7772

Lossfrom Russian Emigration. 234,038 44,998 349,516 218,379

Result. Ultimate

....... ....... .......

461,302 609,863 531,504

Loss 1O2,z66 Gain4i6,304

,,
,,

260,347 3I3,1z5

Total...

I,73344I

846,931

Gain 886,50

These figuresshow very plainly that Russia in Europe is one of the countrieswhich absorb population, and our expectation that the elements absorbed should in the main be derived from the border countries is fully borne out by the available statistical for among the foreign immigrants in excess of the emireturns, grants of foreignbirth (or nationality?) as many as 95i,896 were Germans,677,054 were Austrians, and 41,o83 Romanians, leaving only 63,408 for the rest of the world,the British Islands furnishinog 12,765 towards that residue. That this inflow of migrants should of migration or "out-flow" is plainly create a counter-current seen, not only fromthe Russian returns, but also from those of other countries. The bulk appear to have settled in the neighbouring countries (Germany and Austria), for trans-oceanic emigration from Russia is still in its infancy. Of the net loss in native population which Russia suffered in 1871-86, only 175,934 persons are recorded as having arrived in the United States, whilst 391,96i persons found a home elsewhere. An inquiryinto the natural growthof the population of Russia leads to the same conclusion,forwhilst the actual growthbetween

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration.

269

1871-82 amounted to I-46 per cent. annually, the natural growth would only have yielded an increase of 133 per cent.,the difference (amounting to I, 120,000 souls) having been made up by immigration. Poland, owing to its geographical position, was a larger gainer fromthis immigrationthan Russia proper. Whatever errors there may exist in these figures, they appear to me to point plainly to the fact,that a steady stream of immigrants flows into Russia, notwithstanding irksome police regulations and the unattractivepolitical conditionof that country; and I feel no doubt that if we could trace these migratorycurrentsto their ultimate destinations, and place on record the migration which is going on within the limits of the Empire, we should find that as steady a flowof migrantsleaves it on its eastern frontiers, as is that which enters it from the west. It is thus the vast and promising territories of Siberia, and the re-peopledvalleys of the Caucasus, make their influencefelt even in the heart of Europe. Of a flowof Russian migrants into the Balkan Peninsula I can findbut little trace.
France.'5

The populationof France amounted in May to 37,930,759 souls, divided according to place of birth into the following elements:Parochial element ................... 22,490,482 element ................ 31,245,908 Departmental National element................... 36,969,258 Foreign ,, ................... 961,501 56-6oper cent. 79,70 ,, 9, 7
2-53

The national element as here given includes the natives of French colonies. According to " nationality" there were:
French citizensby origin ........ 36,700,342 NaturalisedFrenchcitizens .... 103,886 Foreigners.................................... 1,126,531 96-76per cent.
O27 2-97
,,

These "foreigners" however include 431,413 natives of France or of French colonies-the children of foreignparents who have not sought naturalisation, but many of whom have nevertheless become merged in the general population. This element of the population is especially numerous in the frontier departments. Among " French citizens by origin" born abroad (266,393) there are many Alsatians born since the loss of that province in 1871. An examinationinto the results of home migrationis rendered next to impossible, as the census returns do not furnishus with the natives of each department enumerated throughout France. It appears to be assumed in France that this home migrationflows
15 For an account of Frenchmigration between 1876 and 1881, see M. Toussaint Loua's paperin Journat of theStatistical Society, 1885, p. 652.

VOL. LMI.

PART 11.

270

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration.

[June,

inwhichthepreponderance outofthosedepartments mostactively or, in other of the femalesex is mostmarked,16 words,that the as distances males take the lead in migration evenforsuchshort to another. Such no doubt is the those fromone department which case in some departments, as in thatof the Creuse, exports numberof men into otherpartsof France, an ever increasing be the mostof its women. It cannothowever whilstretaining of notin the case of the department and notably case everywhere, butwhich are slightly in excess, the Seine,in whichthe females of absorption and not one of thisfactis a centre notwithstanding of one sex or of theother dispersion. In fact the preponderance unless we learn at the same explainsnothing, in a department by a was broughtabout,whether time how this preponderance offemales. ofthemales,or by an inflow departure of to trace the currents But if we are unable satisfactorily to estimate the gain and loss we are in a position homemigration, migration jointly. Between homeand international from resulting of the 1881,and 30th May,1886,the naturalgrowth December, to 376,io8 souls had therebeen wouldhave amounted population to 525,469 souls, amounted no emigration, theactual growth whilst theimmigration of personsbornabroadthus balancingnot only but leaving in additiona all losses resultingfromemigration, of I49,36i souls. Full detailsas to the gainsor profit handsome will be found in Table VIII of the losses of each department Appendix,and it will there be seen that the great regionsof clusterround Paris and Lyons,and the coast of the absorption of Marseille; whilstthe remotely in the direction Mediterranean as regionsof disperare most prominent situated departments
sion.

censusresults the published On one other resultof migration upon to its effects withreference namely, us sufficiently, enlighten of thetownsand ofthe ruralpartsof the country. thepopulation growth a natural 1881-86exhibited The townsof Francebetween of 43,665 souls, the rural parts of 332,443 souls,yet when the were countedin 1886 the townswere foundto have inhabitants madea gain of 626,30Isouls,whilstthe ruralpartshad sustained to the a loss of 455,554. The gain of the townsproportionately of the loss of the amounted to 1881, 4f78 per cent.; population raral partsreachediP87per cent. In manyof thelargetownsthe a minority.In Paris the nativetownelement nativesmustform only mustered349 per cent.; the accessionsfromthe outlying to 3-I per cent.; of the Seine amounted partsof the department of France reached 53-9I but the contributions of the remainder
tion.
la

" Rdsultatsstatistiques de 1886," p. 80 of the introducdu d6nombrement

1889.]

RAYENSTEN-The

Laws of M7igration.

271

per cent., and those from foreignparts 89og per cent.17 Between 1881 and 1886, the rural parts have absolutely decreased in population (from 24,575,506 to 24,452,395), but I am not yet prepared to describe the loss by so ugly a word as " depopulation" of the rural districts. On one other point the French census reports furnisha satisfactory answer,namely,as to whethermigration is increasing. In 1866 the departmentalelementof the population still amounted to. 88-24 per cent.; in 1872 it had fallen to 86-25 per cent., and in 1886 to 840oo per cent., thus exhibiting a steady decrease, which can onlyhave been broughtabout througha correspondingincrease in the number of migrants. Persons born abroad are more numerous in France than in any othercountryof Europe. Their influence in modifyingthe character of the people, though slow, should not be underrated,and the population of France would exhibit only a very small increase were it not for these formidable reinforcementsreceived from abroad. The number of these foreignmigrantsis increasing,and is all the more potent as theirnatural growth,nottheir influence withstandingthe preponderanceof men among them,appears to be greater than that of the native population. If there existed statistics as to the parentage of all natives of France, such as we have for Canada and the United States, the result would possibly surprisein morethan one respect. But even withoutthese statistics, the influenceof these foreign elementsis sufficiently apparent in the foreignnames of many personswho have achieved eminencein France. Speaking broadly,persons of foreign birth are most numerous in the frontier departments and in certain maritime towns. Their nationalityin these localities corresponds with that of the nearest foreign country,in fact, as concerns migration,political boundaries do not appear to exist: Germans, notwithstanding the hostile feeling supposed to be entertained towards them, have nevertheless crossed the frontiersin considerable numbers, whilst natives of France have not allowed themselvesto be deterred by rigorouspassportregulationsfromcrossingthe French boundary into neighbouringparts of Germany. Paris, no doubt, with its manifoldattractionsto migrantsof a more select type, has attracted more foreign settlers (proportionatelyto its population) than many of the frontier departments. But whilst the foreign element in Paris only amounts to 8-og per cent.,it reaches 9-33 per cent. in Meurthe-et-Moselle, ioN5 in the
17 I should withtheelements ofthepopulation havelikedto havedealt of in thecaseofother as I havedone butthematerials Parisas fully at large towns, donotadmit ofthis. mycommand

T 2

272

Laws of Migration. RAVENSTEIN-The

[June,

Nord, and I9z98 in Belfort. Passing fromGerman Lorraine in the directionof Paris, the foreign element amounts to 9-33 per cent. in the frontier departmentof Meurthe-et-Moselle, to 2-72 per cent. in that of the Meuse, to 3-74 per cent. in that of the Marne, to 3-0I per cent. in that of the Seine-et-Marne,and to 7-72 per cent. in that of the Seine. Persons born abroad are not classified according to their place of birth: instead of this we are furnishedwith the number of " foreigners " distinguished according to nationalities. We thus learn that these "foreigners" included 482,26I Belgians, 264,568 Italians, ioo,1i4 Germans, 79,550 Spaniards, 78,584 Swiss, 37,149 Dutch and Luxemburgers,36,134 English, &c. *Italy. According to the census taken in Italy on 31st December, 1881, the population of that kingdom (28,459,628) included:Personsbornin Italy ............ 28,358,807 ,, abroad ............... 100,821 99-64per cent. ,, o36

Of these latter only 59,956 were "foreigners." No details are given which would enable us to trace the migratory movements going on,18 but we are furnishedwith ample informationon the geographical distributionof persons of foreignbirth. This distribution exhibits the usual features, viz., a massing of these foreign migrants in the frontierprovinces, at certain sea ports (Leghorn, Naples), and at a few favoured localities in the interior (Rome and Florence). Thus in Liguria persons of foreign birth constituteI 33 per cent. of the population (due, in a measure,to the presence of wintervisitors on the Riviera) ; in Venetia they formo64 per cent., in Piedmont o055 per cent., in Lombardy 0-53 per ceut.,and in Tuscany, notwithstandingLeghorn and Florence, only 044 per cent. The city of Rome, with 2-34 per cent. of persons of foreignbirth,formsan exception; but notwithstanding its attractions to holiday makers, lovers of art and religious pilgrims, it scarcely ranks before Milan (2-i8 per cent.), which enjoys the advantage of being near the frontier. A majority of settle in the towns,for the foreign element in the these foreigners populationof the districtcapitals mustered I-22 per cent.,whilst in the rural parts of Italy it did not rise higher than o1i9 per cent. As the population of Italy increased 1,658,474 souls between the censuses of 1871 and 1881, whilst the recordednatural growth
18

of Rome (300,467), 134,156 persons (44-65 per cent.) wereborn in Rome,and 7,037 (2X34 per cent.) were born abroad. In Milan (population 32x,839) ofMilan, whilst natives 1I55,714 (48'38 per cent.) were 7,028 (2I8 per cent.) werenativesof foreign parts.

andMilan. Ofthe total ofRome infavour made were Exceptions population

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration.

273

amounted to 2,020,789 souls, Italy must be classed with those countries which send forthlarger numberof emigrantsthan they receive in return. In this exchange Italy is generally the loser, as far as European States are concerned: in other words,the number -States, including Spain, France, of Italians in all the neighbouring Switzerland, Austria, and Hungary, is larger than that of natives of these States in Italy. The same may be said of the countries constituting the African and Asiatic seaboards of the Mediterranean. Nay, even the Italian contingentssent across the Alps into Germanyand other remote regions appear to be larger than those received in return,and the Italian migrantsenumeratedin Germanyare almost visiblyincreasing,having risen from at most 5,604 in 1880, to 8,234 in 1885. Italian emigration is annually and the Italian element in America, assuming vaster proportions, especially in the Argentina and Brazil, is steadily rising. In an officialvolume entitled " Censimento degli Italiani all' estero " (Rome, 1884), we are furnished with the following estimate of Italians residing outside Italy:
Total. America. Asia. Australasia.

Europe.

Africa

Italians by birth ............. 42,314 ,, bornabroad ........ 26,981 whose ,, birthplace} is not known 311,057 Total. 380,352

6 1,990 14,373 226,618 1,73 655 191,618 2,722 35,145 160,806 3,167 232
I 2,685

287,031 234,954 510,907

62,203* 579,335t 7,6z5 2,877 1,032,392

# Of whom33,693in Algeria,Ii,io6 in Tunis,and i6,302 in Egypt. t Of whomz54,388in the Argentina, i70,000 (?) in the United States,and 82,196 in Brazil.

Amongst these Italian emigrants the male sex preponderates throughout,there being only 65 females to every loo males, and this preponderanceincreases generallyspeaking with the distance fromItaly. A distributionof these emigrants amongst the provinces in which theywere born is scarcelypracticable, owing to defective returns,but as far as our informationgoes it would appear that those provinces which receive the largest accession of migrants fromabroad furnishthe heaviest contingents;and that the Italians who migrateinto northernAfrica are largely natives of Sicily and of Southern Italy generally. For further particularson this subject I must referto the work quoted above.

274

RAVENSTEIN-lTe Laws of Migration.

[June,

Spain and Portugal.

I

computed per cent. Duringthe same period the naturalgrowth, that to showing per cent., amounted data, imperfect from o038 very the gains exceeding slightly a loss in herchildren sustained Spainof immigration.Many,if notthe majority, foreign derivedfrom a homein Franceand in northern find theseSpanishimmigrants Africa (Algeria), ratherthan in Spanish coloniesand daughter between States."' The Spanishcensusfor1877 onlydistinguishes nativesof Spain and personsborn abroad, of whomthere were very are nowhere 40,741.20 Our map showsthattheseforeigners in whichtheyexceeded and that the only provinces numerous, i per cent. are Cadiz, Huelva, and Guipuzcoa. These are not but they are at the same time onlyreadilyaccessibleprovinces, (mining). That the and industry of muchcommerce the centres is currents barrierto migratory formidable Pyreneesforma very on our map. plainlyindicated but As to Portugal, are scantyin the extreme, our statistics statistics, of the vital and emigration examination aftera careful annuallysustainssevere therecan be no doubtthat this country losses by emigration. The annual increase of the population between1864 and 1878 only amountedto o059 per cent. per have been less than thenaturalgrowthcan hardly whilst annum, to drifts the ruralpopulation o073per cent. There,as elsewhere, and eitherremainsthere,or is carried towns, the large sea-port theocean. crossing currents further by migratory of Europe. A General Survey it seemsonlyproper America, BeforeleavingEuropeforNorth thus far. This I have donein the resultsobtained to summarise table: thefollowing
19 Ibaiez (Espafia,1888) estimates the Spaniards residingabroadat 346,485, including 114,320in Algeria,73,781 in France, 59,ooo in the Argentina, 39,730 &c. in Uruguay, 20 French17,657, Portuguese 7,94i, English4,771, Italians 3,497.

5,673,536 to I6,625,860 souls,being an annual increaseof o034

from Spain between1860 and 1877 increasedin population

1889.]

RAvENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

Elements of thePopulation. Annual Increase.

275
Difference
(Result

States. States.

Paro- County Pro- Foreign. Period. Actual. Natural Migration). chial. orDistrict.vincial. Percut. Percnt. Per cut.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

79-92 Sweden,1880 . .............. Portugal,1877.. ...-.'64-77 United Kingdom, 1881. Belgium,1880 ............ 67'20

German Empire, 1885. 60(32

1885 ........ 84-0 Luxemburg, Norway,1875............... 73 05

9174
87'21
-

8-26 0.93 roI o6

3.I6

8854
73.80
-2

90 23
-

z2o6

1881-85 o03 5 '65-75 o 6o

'81-85 '70-80
070 o-901

1-10 1-22
1-13

Loss. o 6o
0.43 0-27
0-26 00-20

0-75

041 0

Dennmark,1880...Hungary, 1880 ............ 90 30 4_ Italy, 1881.. Austria, 1880 ............... 69-72 81l25 Switzerland, 1880 ........ 49 30 79'30 Spain, 1877....

'77-80 '70-80
'70-80 '71-81 '70-80 '70-80 '70-79 '60-77

'71-81

o-6o 1.03 o-8o

o99 0. 4 0-75 I.15 0-34 0-73

0173
1-29
1'00 0-29 0073 080
0-73

1119

o0z8 zo

1 19

I5

93-02

1879........ 67-22 Netherlands,

88-51

0-36 I;8 740 i*9i 0_z4

-

o-6o

o0l5
0lI3 005 0o05 0-04

o-68

0'38

1-19
0-68
1-33 1o84 0Q83

o004 Gain
o0o5
o-11

Romania ............... -. _ Finland, 1880 ............... France, 1886 ............... 56-60 -.-.'71-82 Russia, 1882.Servia ...................-......Bosnia .
Greece............................

7970
-

-?

o68 _ -3

1860-84 . '71-90 '82-86 1879-84 '79-85 '70-79

I55

0-;Z
146

021

1-49

o o6
013

I-

.o5

z2 z
2-4 -1

0'38
o076

i.5p9

On glancing throughthis table it will be seen that the States of a loss from Europe form two groups, of which one has suffered combined European and extra-European migration,whilst the other has been a gainer. The latter group includes the Russian Empire, with Finland, the whole of the Balkan peninsula, and France. In these States the actual growth of the population has been greater than would have resulted from an excess of births over deaths, that is from natural growth. In nearly every case the natural growth has been considerable, not to say excessive. France, in the very heart of Western Europe, occupies quite an exceptionalposition among these States. But in France the birthrate is low, and if there are no great currents of emigration crossing the Atlantic, the demands upon the population are nevertheless more considerable than is generally supposed. It should never be forgottenthat there exists in Algeria (1886) a French colony of 26i,59i persons of French " origin," though not all natives of France, and that the maintenanceof this colonyhas until recentlydemanded heavy sacrifices. France, having no considerable surplus population to draw upon, is thus compelled to make up for her losses, trifling though they are, by drawing within her borders the outflow populationfromneighbouringcountries. Very

276

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of M1tigration.

[June,

to this is the position in which Russia and the countries different of the Balkan peninsula find themselves. There the population increases rapidly,but the undeveloped resources of these countries, although not equal to those of some favouritetrans-oceanicfields of emigration, are such as to produce a considerable inflow of population fromthe rest of Europe. The " losses " recorded in our table are largely due to transoceanic emigration,or they are at all events aggravated by it. This is more especially the. case as regards the United Kingdom, the German Empire, and Scandinavia. Whether Italy's losses are more largely due to migrationwithin the borders of Europe than to trans-oceanicemigration I am not prepared to decide, seeing that our statistics are so veryimperfect. The number of natives of Italy who live in other parts of Europe is about 342,ooo, and I believe this exceeds the natives of Italy who live outside Europe. Italian emigration is however assuming ever increasing proportions, and Italy gradually gains upon other countries which send of migrantsinto other parts of the world. There huge contingents can be no doubt however that the losses sustained by Belgium, Luxemburg,and Hungary are ascribable mainly to an emigration to neighbouringEuropean States. If we confine ourselves to migration within the limits of Europe, we shall find that some countries have lost in this exchange of natives of the soil, whilstothershave been the gainers. As no data for Russia and the Balkan States are available, I am compelled to confinemyselfto Western Europe. It will then be found that about the time the latest censuses were taken, 2,655,700 natives of Western Europe lived outside the State in which theyhad been born.21 Among this total therewere
452,300 Germans, 447,800 Belgians, 404,1oo Austrians, 327,600 Italians, 202,700 Frenchmen, 194,100 Hungarians. 126,900 Swiss, 97,900 Netherlanders, 95,900 natives of the United Kingdom, 91,200 Spaniards, 74,700 Swedes, 46,900 Luxemburgers, 34,200 Danes, 30,500 natives of Man and the Channel Islands, &c. Of

course these losses were in many instances more than made up by an inflowof migrantsfromother parts of Europe, and where this was not the case they were at least considerably reduced in amount. In the followingstatement I have arranged the various States of Western Europe into two groups, of which the first includes those States which have gained in population as a result of the migration going on within the limits of Western Europe, whilst the second group is formed of States which have been the consideration. under of thefacts representative fairly
21

The figures I give are

merely rough estimates,

but I believe themto be

1889.]

Laws of Migration. RAVENSTEIN-The

277

losers. Gains and losses are expressed pro mile of the actual populationat the time of the last census. Migration. haveGainedfrom First Group. Stateswhich
Gain.
Net Gains, being the

Emigration. over Per Mille Excessof Immigration of Countries. Contributory Principal Number. Population.

Switzerland ................61,900 France.732,300 Norway.23,400 Denmark .26,800 .13,700 Portugal Hungary........................18,700 United Kingdom 27,400

2617

Germany(51,100),
(

I 96 I3 9
Iz 2-Y

Belgium(350,900),Italy (207,800), Germany(49,300), Luxemburg

(26,7oo)

1Austria

(6, ioo)

Italy (zz,ooo),

13-7

o'8

Sweden(23,900) , (I 9,500),Germany(i 2,400) Spain (I2, 00) Austria(14,700), Germany (2,000) [Germanv(26, roo), Man and Channel islands (i8,8oo), NetherI lands (4,400)

Lossesthrough Migration. suffered SecondGroup. Stateswhich

Loss. NetLosses, the being

Immigration. over Per Mille Excess ofEmigration Countries. Recipient Principal Number. of Population. Finland .700 GermanEmpire .......... 92,300 Spain .41,000 Austria .76,100 Netherlands .32,400 Italy..........................247,000
X

0-3

o0 2-4 34 8i 87

Switzerland United Kingdom _ (26,I00), Belgium (25,400) France (49,300) German Empire(62,100), Hungary
(49,300), (5i,i00), (14,700), Switzerland (6,i00)

France

Sweden Sweden

.29,600 Luxemburg

Belgium.308,200

ManandChannel Isles

58,100 ........................8,10 In7 4,300

83.

.
30-3

Belgium'(22,600) Switzerland France (207,800), Austria(13.400) l(2z,ooo), JNorway(23 (I 9500), ,9oo), Denmark lGerman Empire (7,800) France (350,900)
(z6,700),

United (i8,800) Kingdom

I39*0

(4,800) Belgium

Switzerland owes its position at the head of this list no less to its character as a region of transit,lying betweenfourgreat States, than to its small size, which intensifiesall migratorysymptoms. France and Belgium, however, are fair representativesof West European extremes,the one being a receptacle into which flows the surplus population from surroundingStates, whilst Belgium, whose inhabitants are fairly obeying.the Mosaic injunction, are pouring their thousands annually into France.

278

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

and Germanywould of course occupy Hungary,Austria., different places in our list were we to embraceRussia and the Earope," Balkan Stateswithin these " United States of Western for the number QfWestern Europeansin theEast is undoubtedly " in thewest. muchlargerthanis thatof " Easterlings
America.

of the migration statistics BeforeI proceed to a consideration of Canada and the United States,withwhichI proposeto close it appears to me to be desirable 'thatI shoulddraw my survey, whichdistinguish these attention to severalpointsof difference, European regions of the new world from our old-established States. In Europe, or at all events in WesternEurope,nearly all the land capable of being cultivatedhas been occupiedand of this,our greatmigratory currents peopled. As a consequence of commerce and industry are produced either by thedevelopment in certainlocalities, of emigrants, whoseplaces or by an outflow are filled make up bylocal currents of migration. These agencies feltalso in NorthAmerica,but in additionto them themselves knownin Europe, whosepoweris hardly thereexistsone factor attraction the powerful exercised by vast areasof cultivnamely, of bycultivators. able land notyettakenpossession Another difference is this: whilst with us in Europe the " constitutes of the population, "foreign element a merefraction in the new world. Here in Europe it assumesvast proportions by an everyinflow of foreign elementsis largelycompensated butin thenewworldtheinflowing currents are outflow ofnatives, whilstthe compensatory countercurrents overpoweringly strong, are ofthefeeblest proportions. be bornein mind when should constantly These differences migration. Theyhave been discussingthe statistics of American mostmarked in the past,and are verystriking still. In courseof untilat last thenew time, however, theywill becomeless glaring, world shall have becomeassimilated to the old in its migratory no less thanin other uponthepopucurrents respectsdepending lation havingattaineda densitycommensurate with the natural ofthe country. resources TheDominion of Canada. of Canada at the timeof the of the Dominion The population last census(1881) was composed as follows:Dominion

Provincial element ......................

,.3.....................
,.

3,584,266 .8z88percent.
8,715,492 77,753 531,565
85z9l ,, ,, V79 ,, 14'o9

American

...................... elements.................... Otherforeign

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

279

By the term "American" elementI mean natives of the United States, whilst the " otherforeignelements" include all personsborn outside the Dominion who are not " Americans" as defined by me. These foreignelementsinclude consequently470,092 natives of the United Kingdom,25,328 Germans,6,376 Russians, 4,596 Newfoundlanders, 4,839 French, and fractionsof many other nationalities. The Dominion as a whole absorbs the surplus population of other parts of the world, although not to the same extent as is done by her more powerfuland pushing neighbour, who at the same time, and notwithstandingthat the shortest route from Europe to the East passes throughCanada, is much more favoured by geographical positionand physical features. in the power considerable difference There exist, nevertheless, of absorption exhibited by the several provincesof Canada, and if we exclude the accessions received from foreign parts, there are even some amongst them, whose native (Dominion) element is smaller in numbersthan are their natives scatteredthroughoutthe Dominion. (See Table IX in the Appendix.) These provinces, named in the order of their losses, are the Territorieswhich have most (8-43 per cent.), owing apparentlyto the removal of suffered Quebec (3 55 per cent.), Nova Scotia, manyIndians to reservations, and Prince Edward Island. The greatestgainer has been Manitoba (6ooz per cent.), and next to it rank British Columbia (7-20 per cent.), Ontario (1-71 per cent.), and New Brunswick. The double effects of geographical distance and facilityof proare very clearly brought out by these curing land for settlement, Canadian statistics, although we shall see them more freely at play in the wider area of the United States. Still the underlying principle of all this migration appears to be that the bulk of to a long one, and that the more migrantsprefersa short Journey long-journeymigrants are the exceptionsand not the enterprising rule. This at least would appear to be shown by tracing the 58,734 natives of Quebec who were enumerated in 1881 outside their native province.
Provinces Enumerated. inwhich Ontario ................. Numbthe Nme. 50,407 3,1z7 Per Cent. oalMirns from Quebec. 85-85 of PerCent. Canadian Population of theProvinces Enumerated. in which 3'83 o0XI
Io8

New Brunswick ................ Nova Scotia 0................. PrinceEdward Island ... Manitoba ................. BritishColumbia ........... Territories ..................

44 I

177

5,32 074 0 30 6.95 0,67 0,17

oi8

4,o85 396 0

1C13 019

83 3

280

RAvENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

that most of the migrants Whilst the table shows very distinctly from Quebec went no furtherthan the neighbouring province of Ontario, it shows at the same time that a minor currentproceeds from Quebec towards Nova Scotia, and that the main current which carries so many of its sons and daughters into Ontario has not lost all strengthwhen it has reached the westernextremityof that province, but still sweeps onward, though with diminished force,and only dies away when it reaches the shore of the Pacific. This is the nature of all these westerlycurrentsin North America. They are like mightyrivers,which flowalong slowly at the outset, and after depositing most of the human beings whom they hold in suspension, sweep along more impetuously, until they enter one of the great westernlake reservoirs(in our case Manitoba), on leaving which they are nearly limpid. If on the other band we inquire whence a province like Manitoba has drawn the many migrants which entitle her to so prominent a place as a centre of absorption,the answer is once more fromthe nearest available surplus population. Of the 98,992 natives of Canada enumerated in Manitoba in 1881, 18,020 were natives of Manitoba itself,19,125 had come from Ontario,6,422 fromthe Territories,and 4,o85 fromQuebec. In 1885, when another census was taken, it was found that the natives of the otherprovinces had increased considerably,but the furnishedby each provincehad hardly contingentsproportionately which had themselvesbecome changed, except that the Territories, more desirable places for agricultural settlers,furnished a much smaller contingent. In other words, the migratorycurrent bad retained its strengthwhilst passing over Manitoba, carryingmore beyond it. migrantsthan formerly

The United States.

The population of the United States, classified according to birth places, included the followingelementsin (1880):State element ..... .... Nationalelement......... Foreign ,,.......... 33,789,498 43,475,840 6,679,943 67 37 per cent. 86 69 ,,
13*31 ,1

Full details for each State and territorywill be found in Table X of the Appendix. That which strikes us most in examining this table is not so much the large numberof persons of foreignbirth,than the great mobilityof the native Americans. They are greater wanderers, less tied to home associations, than are the inhabitantsof Europe. This fact is sufficiently accounted for by the vast extent of unoccupied land, and the great natural resources of the country,

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The

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281

only i62,886 were due to an excess of births over deaths, whilst immigrationfrom other States added 182,150 souls to the population, and foreignimmigrationI25,122 only. If we bear in mind that the natural growthwould have been much slower had there been no foreign immigrantsto contributetowards it, we shall be able to estimatethe foreignelementat its full value. Had we any trustworthy statisticsof birthsand marriages for everyState of the it would be found that the actual increase of Federal territory, population in some of them is virtually dependent upon foreign immigration. Take Maine as an instance. In that State the actual increase of population between 1870 and 1880 amounted to 22,000 souls, viz., 12,000 natives of the United States, and io,ooo foreigners. Assuming the excess of births over deaths to have been the same as in the three States of New England for which we have vital statistics, the natural, growth during the period under consideration must have amounted to 46,ooo souls, clearly showing that in the case of Maine the time when its population shall cease to increase must be close at hand. If we divide the United States into two regions, one of dispersion and the otherof absorption,it will be found that the former includes eighteen States and territories,all of them, with the exception of New Mexico, lying to the east of the Mississippi. This is taking account of the native element only. If we include the foreignelement it will be found that fourof these States, viz., New Hampshire, Connecticut,Pennsylvania,and New York, have recovered their loss in consequence of the arrival of numerous foreign immigrants,who at the time of the last census resided within their boundaries. The losses have been most severe in Vermont,Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine, whilst the gains in the North were most considerablein the newlyopened territories West (see Table X, and map).

whichhave as yethardly beentouched. Have we not witnessed on an equallysurprising migrations scale whenthe value of the ironoresof Furnessand of Cleveland first cameto be recognised ? Puttingaside personsof foreign birth,we findthatthe State element includes75-4 per cent. of the totalnative populationof in Austriaand Germany, withprovinces theUnitedStates,whilst fairly comparable, the provincial element reaches93 and go per cent.respectively. If we compare the censusreturns for1870withthosefor1880, we shallfindthat everyState and territory in popuhas increased lation, but,on examining intothecausesof thisincrease, it will at oncebecomeapparent thatit is due,in a largemeasure, to foreign immigration.Thus the StatesofMassachusetts, Connecticut, and of 470,158souls,of which Rhode'Island exhibit an actualgrowth

282

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

of the processof dispersion In illustration going on in the whose exhausted soil appearsno UnitedStates,I selectVirginia, a rapidly longerto be able to support increasing population. Of nativeVirginianstherewere enumerated throughout the United States2,1 a home i8,460, of whomas manyas 683,336had found outsidetheirnptiveState. Of these migrants 285,422(41v74per thanone of the border cent.) had goneno further States; 268,818 a borderState and had settledin a (39 33 percent.) had crossed State just beyondit; whilst 129,096 (x8'93 per cent.) had gone a mapexhibiting to other the partsof the Union. If we examine of thesemigrants, we shall findthat of the currents distribution whichpass out of Virginia,that which flowsin a of migration towardsthe thinlypeopled territories to the westerly direction, is the most powerful. Anothercurrent west of the Mississippi, and followsthe valley of the swervesroundto the south-west, crossesSouth to the Gulf of Mexico. A thirdcurrent Mississippi thatwhilst CarolinaintoGeorgia. It is quiteobvious geographical influence featureshave exerciseda preponderating upon these ofacquiring economical suchas the facility currents, reasons, land, modified these. Virginian have verymaterially migration presents ofthenatives as the migration of Quebec. in factthe samefeatures we findthat nearlyone half of the Tracingthewesterly current, 26 per cent. migrants Virginia, (47 per cent.) settledin Western in Kentuckyand Tennessee,2n were enumerated 19 per cent. in
Missouri, 5 per cent. in Kansas, and only 3 per cent. further westward. The leading numerical facts in connectionwith this migration fromVirginia are exhibited in the followingtabular statement:
22 Kentucky, track. Indiana and Southern Illinoislie on the western Southern for Illinoisand As I have no figures Tennessee forpartsof States,I substituted Ohio.

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The

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283

StatesandTerritories.

of Number Proportion of Proportion Americans ofMigrants Proportion Native Native to oftall ofal iii the every in which the J0 quare Virginian Migrants. States Miles Migrants Migrants. were Enumerated. of Land. Per cnt. Per cnt. Per cut.
Z

Maryland............................26,754 DistrictColumbia. 29,009 West Virginia.................. 135,599 .................. 36,515 Kentucky Tennessee.................. 38,059 NorthCarolina .................. 19,486 BorderStates ........... 285,422 Delaware .. New Jersey.. Pennsylvania .. Indiana.24,538 Illinois.27,904 Missouri.54,058 Arkansas. Mississippi.28,816 Alabama .24,279 .14,606 Georgia South Carolina .4,058 .. .. .. 642 4,789 20,189

19-84 5-34 5'57 2z85 41-74

010 0?70

424

390

3-14 18-07 22 51 2-28 2 49 1-39 4 66 0447 0-53 0-55 1-18 1-44 1-12 2-76 2-57 1l94 095 0-41 1-39 029 0-82 0'20
1l68

225,998 .55
91 40 173
9I

271

Ohio..

.... 51,647
13,292

410

3 59

7.56

2'95

127

33 64 45 68
50

3-55 268,818

4.z2

7-91 1.94

21I4

0?59 39 35 6-67 7-65 683,336

Ioo000
1.49

78 25 62 47 25 13

54
I n 5
14
24 9

NorthEasternStates. Western ,. PacificStates .10,267 SouthernStates.52,524

20,776 45,529

302

0-96

1P62

natives of Iowa, and 62 5,659 natives of other parts of the federal territory. The migrantsof American birth thus constituted54 per cent. of the total American born population. There is not a State or a territory which has not contributedtowards these inflowing currentsof migrants,but the largest contributions proportionately to their means of supply were made, with one exception, by the nearest States; that exception is Missouri, which lies in the very

On examining theproportions in the last column, it shouldbe bornein mindthatall land,whether fitforcultivation or not,has been included. Had I been in thepossession of data enabling me to eliminate unoccupied but cultivable land,the proportions would have comeout verydifferently, especially in the case of thePacific Statesand territories. In illustration of the process of absorption of migrants as in theUnitedStates,I have selected proceeding Iowa. That State in 1880 had a populationof 1,624,614, of whom 737,306were

284

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migrahtor.

[June,

centre of the great westerly current,and whose resources have so largely been drawn upon in the peopling of the neighbouring migrants who went forth State of Kansas. Out of i,202,371 from the six border States, as many as 173,662 (14-4 per cent.) were found at the last census to have taken up their residence in Iowa. If Missouri be excluded, the proportionrises to I6'7 per cent. Including withinthe next zone all those States and territories any portion of which lies within 300 geographical miles fromthe Iowa border, we find that they sent forth 2,564,26i migrants (who were alive in 1880), of whom 2I3,3i8 or 8 3 per cent. were but enumeratedin Iowa. A third zone, lying outside the former, within 600 miles of Iowa, out of 4,524,763 migrantscontributed 201,606, or 4-4 per cent., towards the population of that State. Lastly, there remains an outer zone, of whose natives 1,267,728 were enumerated in other parts of the union, including 46,984 (3 7 per cent.) in Iowa. If we examine into the details of each zone we shall findthat there exist considerable differences. It will be found, for instance, that the frontierand maritime States furnish larger contingents than might be expected from their distance fromthe centre of absorption. This is more especially noticeable in the case of those New England States which are centresof dispersion. It is obvious, however,that the proportions of these States would be reduced considerablyif we took account of the migrantswho have left them forthe neighbouringprovinces of Canada. For further details I refer to the accompanying map. If any further proofwere wanted that migrationin the United States proceeds on the same lines as in Europe, it is furnishedby considering the interstate migration. Looking at my small diagram illustrating the migration of native Americans into Kentucky, it will be seen at once that the number of immigrants, proportionatelyto the whole of the American-bornpopulation,is considerablein the border counties, and that the migratory most, currents flow along certain well defined geographical channels. This preponderanceis most strikingin the westernmostcounties, which forma kind of pan-handle,and are accessible from three directions. The featuresare exactly the same as have been found to exist in European provinces. In America, as with us, the shortjourney migrants constitute a majority, and no mere change of this fact. political boundaries would affect on the comparano information The American census furnishes us an insight of men and women,but it affords tive migratoriness into migration as it affectsthe large cities. I think I am safe in assuming that the time has not yet arrived in the United States when the cities, as with us, are being fed at the expense of the

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The

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285

ruralpartsof the country. Of courseeveryone of theAmerican its boundaries nativesof the rural parts of citiescontainswithin onlygive thenativesof States, butas the censusreturns theState, theproportion whichtheybear to the we are notable to determine population. If we are toldthatthe inhabirestof the State-born in 188022V5 per cent.oftheAmerican tantsofthetownsnumbered withonly209 per cent.in 1870,we as compared bornpopulation, of cities,during the tenyears mast bearin mindthatthenumber from 226 to 286. On increased thetwocensuses, lie between which thatthe citypopucan be no doubtwhatever hand,there theother than are the immigration lationsare morelargelyfed by foreign ruralpartsof the country. Rural Americais far moreintensely per thanare thecities. In 1870 the citiescontained national 34+8 theUnited enumerated bornpersons throughout cent.ofall foreign slightas it is, States,and in 1880 34+2 per cent. This decrease, are beginning to appearsto pointto the factthat ruralAmericans it is the at all events, moveintothecities. But forthe present, towardsthem. who are mostlargelyattracted immigrants foreign the hometQus if we compare brought This factis mostdistinctly element throughout of the citieswiththe foreign element foreign thatthe the Statein whichtheyare situated. We shallthenfind in the cities (proportionately to the total numberof foreigners offoreigners throughis muchlargerthanthenumber population), illustrate thisfact: examples outthe State. The following
.Foreign Cities. Citis. Element in eachCity. Percnt. Element Foreign eachState. throughout Percnt.

New York ........... Philadelphia ........ ................ Brooklyn Baltimore .... . Boston.................... St. Louis ........... Cincinnati ........... New Orleans ........ Washington ........ ........ San Francisco

Chicago ...........

40 7

39 7 25-0 314

z238 13.7 27z

i8'9

16-9 316 30 0 291 191 9.7 4646

8-8 Z4 9
Iz3

9-8

5.7 96 33:9

overall partsof the Union,and may These citiesare dispersed the existingconditions. be looked upon as fairly representing thosewho are mostinclinedto settlein cities foreigners, Among the are the Poles (52-43 per cent.of all enumerated throughout (38 7I per cent.), Union),theIrish (45 26 per cent.),the Germans and the Bohemians(38-71 per cent.). Least inclinedfor a city the Swedes,and the Canadians. lifeare theNorwegians,
VOL. L1I. PART 11. U

286

RAVENSTEIN-Th

eLaws

of Migration.

[June,

General Conclusions. Having thus placed beforeyou a vast array of facts and figures, I ventureto deduce from them certain principles or laws which movements. I do not question appear to me to guide all migratory for a moment that the principal, though not the only cause of has to be sought forin over-populationin one part of the migration, country,whilst there exist elsewhere undeveloped resourceswhich hold out greater promise for remunerative labour. It is obvious that this is not the only cause. Bad or oppressive laws, heavy taxation, an unattractiveclimate, uncongenial social surroundings, all have produced and even compulsion(slave trade,transportation), and are still producing currents of migration, but none of these currents can compare in volume with that which arises fromthe desire inherentin most men to "better" themselves in material respects. It is thus that the surplus population of one part of the countrydriftsinto anotherpart,where the developmentof industry and commerce,or the possibilityof procuringproductive land still in a state of nature, call for more hands to labour. But how is this call supplied? Suppose there exists a surplus of labour in one province and a deficiencyin another,whilst the intervening provinces are able to find remunerativeoccupation for all their inhabitants. Will the labourer,in search of work, travel across these interveningprovinces,in order to supply the deficiency? I say, no! the immediateneighbourhood, 1. The want will be supplied from and its effect will travel from province to provinceuntil it makes itself felt in the most remote among them. Of course there arise such as have exceptional wants as also exceptional opportunities, been pointed out in the case of the United States, but under movementwill be a gradual one; normal conditionsthe migratory fromprovince it will proceed step by step, and will be transmitted to province. I may be permitted to liken this movementto that which is produced in a cistern of water after the tap has been turned on. 2. Tf this really is so, then the bulk of the migrants ought to travel short distances only,and that they really do this even in America, where the conditions are quite exceptional, I believe to have amply proved. No better proof of it could be found than in among whom long-journey the invasion of a countryby foreigners, migrants must obviously be more numerous than among other classes of migrants. If you will carefullyexamine my tables and the illustrativemaps, you will find that foreign emigrantsare for the most part content with going no further than the nearest foreign province or the most convenientcentre of absorption. If

1889.]

RAYENSTEIN-The

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a mapwereto be drawn of migrants exhibiting thestream passing into another,it would clearlyshow that the fromone country lost in strength in proportion current to its distancefromthe of supply. Of coursetheremayoccureddiesand shallows source and localities in sucha current, whereit hurries alongor slackens its speed to deposita largernumberof the humanbeings who alongby it; butits broadfeatures are carried are such as I have wouldbe stillclearer described. The phenomenon to thebeholder if theredid notexistin mostcountries scattered centres ofabsorptionwhichgive rise to currents of theirown,and divertothers, untilit becomes to tracethem. difficult 3. I also believethat I have provedthat each main current a counter current offeebler produces strength. As I have dealtat of myinquiry withthisbranch in myformer length paper,I need say no moreaboutit on the present occasion. 4. The question ofwhether ourlargetowns growat theexpense of theruralpartsof thecountry, evento the extent of producing " of theruralparts, a " depopulation has recently been dealtwith beforethis Societyin an able manner. My inquiriesjustifyme in asserting thatin all settledcountries the townsdo increasein

increment only,they would increasevery slowly,and in some instancestheywould even retrograde.Nothingcan provethis more clearly than the proportion whichthe native townelement of ourlarge towns. The number bearsto the totalpopulation of in someof the inhabitants is as follows nativesamonga thousand principal townsof Europe
66i ....... Antwerp London ....... 629 Hamburg ........- 543 ....... Copenhagen 54 . ....... 513 Glasgow Milan........................ Rome ....... 446

this way. If left to their own resources,if dependentupon natural

Kristiania ...... Budapest ...... Berlin ...... Stockholm . Vienna ......

425
424
424

46

49 ...Stockholm....... 349

345

We shall be prettysafe in assumingthat one half of the of our large towns are not natives of the town in inhabitants which they dwell. If the rest of the inhabitants had been supplied in equal proportions by all the provincesof a State, then our capitals might be fairlydescribedas presenting an epitome of a wholenation. But althoughlong-journey migrants moveby preference into our large cities,still the largershareof the increment is due to an inflow of the surrounding ruralpopulation,and thisaccounts forthefactthateventhe largestcitiesof Europepartakeof provincial characteristics. The local streams whichcarrythe ruralpopulations iito our u2

288

RAvENSTEIN-The

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[June,

of the larger streamsof quite independent towns arc sometimes theybecomemergedin them. In the but generally migration, and I suppose in othernewlysettled United States, however, of the thistendency resources, havinglargeagricultural countries towardsthe towns is hardlyperceptible. The rural population offoreign in consequence immigration. largely townsthereincrease in the If it were possibleto createor open up similarresources youwouldat onceputa stop countries, ruralpartsof ourEuropean to the rural exodus whichhas been proved to be going on in all partsof Europe,and whichis so justlydeplored. nearly migrants. among short-journey topredominate 5. Femalesappear to thisrule,but numerically to exceptions I have drawnattention migrants On the otherhand long-journey theyare insignificant. among females born in large towns, appear to predominate Paris,Vienna,and London; all thegreat Scotch towns, including abroadby manyothers. Someof theseladies are no doubtcarried but witha viewto theiradorningruralhomes, countercurrents in certain I am sure,are soughtfortheiraccomplishments many, ofindustry. branches in increase? I believe so! The exception 6. Does migration elementrose from74 o0 per cent. in wherethe county England, accountedforby 1871 to 75'I9 per cent. in 1881,is an exception with the normalprocessof of Irish immigrants the interference I was able to make a comparison I found migration.nWherever of and a development in themeansof locomotion thatan increase have led to an increaseof migration. and commerce manufactures within of a country In factyouneedonlyseekout thoseprovinces and you will either mostactively, is proceeding whichmigration or in a part of humanindustry, in the greatcentres find yourself becomeavailhave onlyrecently of the country whoseresources population able. Migration meanslife and progress;a sedentary stagnation. Remarks. Concluding One other remarkbeforeI conclude. Does the process of as illustrated by me, conveyany lesson of practical migration,
utility, as, for instance, with reference to the colonisation of tropical regions? 1 believe that it does. I have pointed out in the of Italians who have course of mypaper how large is the proportion settled in Northern Africa, as also is that of Spaniards, Southern Frenchmen, and Greeks. These migrants reached their present homes in the normal course of migration, that is to say, they " migrants. In exchanging their native land are " short-journey
23

iv,p. 51. andWales, of England Census

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

289

for the new countryin which they have settled down, they underwent no violent alterations of climatic conditions, and we are justified in asserting that they will thrive and flourish there, as have thelong-journey insteadof perishingprematurely, migrants, who left Alsatia and Germany for Algeria. And what is more, these natives of southern Europe not only attain a high age in their African homes,bat theyalso become the foundersof families. It strikesme that if tropical Africa or other tropical regions are ever to be " colonised " by European races, the rules instinctively followed by most of the migrantsshould be adhered to. A sudden transition from the temperate to the tropical world can yield no permanentresults. That world can be won only,if it is to be won, by a deliberate invasion persisted in during many generations of men. As regards northernAfrica in particular,those Europeans who are already seated upon the shores of the Mediterranean task. Working their appear to me to be most fitfor this difficult way inland, fromstage to stage, each stage marking a generation of men, these European coloniserswould followthe Nile valley and other available highroads traced out by nature, already availed of by their predecessors,until even the terrorsof a tropical climate would cease to be terrors to the far-off descendants of the men who first startedupon this mightyenterprise.

290

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

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APPENDIX. 6 xI; ofa Parish Population Average

of Proportion of Natives Elements of the eachProvince Enumerated lnumeatives eachuProvince , throughout outside I Native their 1885. the Province. Parochial. Empire. Province Empire. ~Per cut. Per cot. Percnt.* Provincxial. No. No. 669,705
I

TABLE I.-GERMAN

Provinces. Geographical

Berlin... . .......... 1,315,287 . . 1,736,585 Schleswig-Holstein 1,150,306 Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg.518,620 Ldbeck .67,658 Elsass-Lorraine .1,564,355 .3,182,003 Saxony,Kingdom Rhineland.4,344,527 .2,364,996 Westphalia Lippe .123,212 .37,204 Schaumburg Baden.1,601,255 Hanover.3,052,307 Hanover.2,172,702 Brunswick .372,452 .341,525 Oldenburg Bremen.165,628 Bavaria .5,420,199 Hesse .2,605,640 Hesse-Nassau .1,592,454 Hesse-Darmstadt 956,611 Waldeck.56,575 .2,061,905 Wiirtemberg Hohenzollern .66,720 West Prussia.1,408,229 Thuringia.1,055,621 .313,946 Saxe-Weimar ,, Meiningen 214,884 161,460 Altenburg Cob-Gotha 198,829 55,904 ReUis, sen ................ , jun.110,598 4,112,219 Silesia................. .2,342,411 Brandenburg .2,833,975 PrussianSaxony 2,428,367 Saxonyproper. Anhalt .248,166 . Schwarzb.Sond. 73,606 Rudol 83,836 ,, Posen .1,715,618 East Prussia.1,959,475 Pomerania .1,505,575 .673,523 Mecklenburg ......... GermanEmpire 46,855,704

2,993,751 4,I87,866
38,I12

1,34,645 3 I7,374 54,682 1,407,656

,511,7CI

2,287,713
134,670

3,o16,327 2,201,984

1,574,238 352,o69 346,2.14 i i6,o6o

7-04 10'80

16-70 4-38 11 10 2-1 26-3 2-10 4'30 5-10 7-45 16-10 17-90 6-10 4-3 14-40 3-8 3-20

46-58 6z.75 7o-69 59'76 66 oz 64 27 79-6o

71I66

5163 5OiO

83-21 87-13 63-73 59.93 88-20 89-92 91-52 91-64 91-90 92 83 91-87 78-74 86 78 60'37 96-46 92-43 88-45 90 78 89-77 96-71 89-10 90 18 88-82 84-08 85-82 82-21 84-88 77O07 74-49 95-68 85 50 82,52 88'60 76-57 82 97 84-15 92 47 97-12 92A49 92-97 90,23
90.40 84'82

42 37

75 93 6O094
6oc85 6O'23 I 64-8

5)399,079

53-94 6o-86 72.65 7 I1 8 74 98 7340

72-07 472

2,628,284
1,596,322

2,114,930

962,049 69,963

8'35 11-80 9 80 27A40 15,60 12-80 14 66 21-90 15 60 24 20 15,50 23 10 25 80 18-30 22,25 16-60 22'50 25'60 21,80 13,10 9 60 14 10 15 28 8-92
8 40 5.71

70,393 2,454,76o
1,099,024

337,875 2I8,988
175,139

I99,897
4,296,679
111,193

74'98 65.79 74-10

7I.70

72i16

78.67 It 7I-88

55,932

72-82 54'30

2,451,955
3,007,854 2,590,717 8I,647

244,846

52-33 6153 6O076 75 39 76-43 49'7I 47 4It 49*94 62.71 6o'3z

59'I5

89,644 1,82 5,353 2,IO6,413 1I,69,844 739,797 46,421,179

# :stimated fromthe censustakenin 1871.

1889.]

RAvENSTEIN-The Laws of Miigration.

291

APPENDIX.
EMPIRE. Of a Pravznce 2,342,784.
Results of Difference between Migration Actual Annual NaturalandActual Population. Home in proportion Growth of Population. toTotalPopulation. Increase _ of Population. Foreign. Gain. Loss. Gain. Loss. Per cnt. Per cnt. Percnt. Percnt. Percnt. Percnt. 1.33 2,^9 2-.17 2-48 3-I6 I 51
I2Z 02I

Provinces. Geographical

49-1

z o7

19-2 10 0 3-60 3'26

107 5-1

37-6

12'8 1-4
-

1'25 dec. 0 03 1-29 1.51 049 039 0.59 0 49 1'28 0-24 1 11 0-51 0-46 0 48 0 43 0 02 0-23 dec. 0-27 0 03 0-72 0-28 0 74 0-81 0-42 1,20 1-75 0-51 0-65 1-02 0-98 1-29 0-69 0-86 0-14 0-26 dec. 0 45 dec. 011
1-01 1-36

2-66

1-12 0-41

3'16

zsI 6

_ 010 0 81 071 _ 0 05 0 04

o I4 o o6
-

-52

0.44
Io5

?- 7

_ 9
-

24

_
-

045 0?3 7
P zO I*I3

O.5 1

0'94

1'2
-

30 0
0-9
-

5.5

.3

14 _
08 7

o023

0-61 0-51 059 086 017 0 39 053 0-49 0 56 1 l14 0 82 105 142 0 44 0 79 0 45 0-29 0-62 0 26 0-42 0-45 0-29 0-29 0 10 057 0 37 1-33 0 81 1-72 1-42 043
-

0191 0-27

Berlin Schleswig-Holstein Schleswig-Holstein Hamburg Libeck Elsass-Lorraine Saxony,Kingdom Rhineland Westpbalia Lippe Baden Hanover Hanover Brunswick Oldenburg Bremen Bavaria
Schaumburg

_ _ _

o'56

o064 o-46 o-6o

0.40 0oJ7

o-66 0o36 o033

02I

o024 o6 23-7 Z-57

4. I I

3-3 6
*19

7-

0o33 0.37 0.74

o0z8 0o23 0o23 o0z6 0o24 0o2 0o52
?

0.50
105
-

_
6-

8.5 o5o 005 051 45

4.7 I 7.1

0.44

1-3
-

109

0.55

6-9 6-4

Hesse Hesse-Nassau Hesse-Darmstadt Waldeck Wuirtemberg Hohenzollern West Prussia Thuringia Saxe-Weimar ,, Meiningen ,, Altenburg ,, Cob-Gotha Reuss, sen. jun. ,, Silesia Brandenburg PrussianSaxony Saxonyproper Anhalt Schwarzb.Sond. Rudol. ,,
Posen East Prussia

0?38 _ 0.93 0 93

J9

7-5 7.6 9.8

-

Pomerania Mecklenburg GermanEmpire,

070

t Includes both East and West Prussia.

292

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

TABIX

[June,

II.-NETHERLANDS.

Average Population of each Province 373,88!; of eachParish 3,561.

Provinces. Provinces. Elements of thePopulation. Annual Population, Increase of -____ -____ 8:1st 31stPopulation, December, Parochial.Provincial.National. Foreign. 1870-79. Per cnt. 1879. Percnt. Percut. Percnt. Per cut.

Drenthe ............ Utrecht ............ Groningen............ South Holland *North ,, .... Zeeland ............ Overyssel ............ Gelderland ............ NorthBrabant .... Friesland ............ Limburg............

118,845 191,679 253,246 803,530 679,990 188,635 274,136 466,805 466,497 329,877 239,453

6I.53 6.z,38

6z9 z 64:89 67'o3

67'7I 68*87

8180 79'87 91-68 85-04 84-81 93-58 86-51 88 67 92-55 95-62 89-73 1 88-51

98 3Z

98 78 98 47
98-47

98'z1
97'19

168 1-22 1 53 1 53 1-79 2 81 1-61 1.99 1-61 o040 6 73 1 91

ri8 099 I*I 7

I'55 1.63

98 39
98-OI 98.39 99-6o

o-6o O 76
o-76 o.84 I-ZI o.67

69 5z
69-8I

70oi8 71 IO 67-z

86 2.7 98 ?9

.... 4,012,693 Netherlands

11I4.

TABTEIII.-BELGIUM.

Average Population of eachParish 2,I36.

ofthePopulation. Annual Elements Increase . of Population, 31stDecember, Parochial. National. Foreign. Population, 1876.80. Paochial. ational.Foreign. 1880. 1880. Percnt. Percnt. Per cnt. PerCnt.

Provinces.

Brabant (Brussels) Li6ge.............. Antwerp .............. Hainaut .............. W. Flanders(Bruges) Namur .............. E. Flanders (Ghent).. Limburg.210,851 Luxemburg .209,118 Belgium ............

985,274 663,735 577,232 977,565 694,764 322,636 881,815

59 z 6z.3 66-o 68*o 68 5

7CI6

99-66 99 50 99-61 99 80 99-85 99 89 99 90 99'77 99 62 99u24 o-z6

o034 o.5o O'38 O02O 0 ,5 OII

OxO

1-2 112 17 0.5 02 05 05 07 05

73'4 74.1 76,o 67'2

0-23 o.38

5,520,009

07

TABLE

IV.-AUSTRIA.

Average Population of eachProvince 1,302,602;

Citizens
Population, of

of eachDistrict 6

of Proportion
Citizens

Elements of th

Provinces.

Enumerated 31stDecember, eachProvince outsideei Parochial. | District. Provini Eloha.Dsrc.PoicilNtoa.Hnain the ownProvince. 1880. throughout
Empire. Per cnt. Per cnt. Per cnt. Per cnt.

Trieste .144,844 Lower Austria ........ 2,330,621 .1,213,597 Styria .163,570 Salzburg .107,373 Vorarlberg Bukowina.571,671 Istria .................... 292,006 759,620 Upper Austria Dalmatia.476,101 Galicia.5,958,907 Carinthia .348,730 Silesia.................... Moravia.2,143,407 Carniola.481,243 Bohemia . Gtlrzand Gradisca Empire ... l 565,475 5,680,819 211,084 22,144,244 l

73,308 1,6I 6,657

1,132,697

No.

143,486 100,453 549,535 283,996

747,950 80iI39

.805,176 Tyrol

8478 4'02 3 83 7 66 3-07 1-45 4 89 8-32

46 85 42 o8 56.46
56'5I

473,845 5,985,435 350,646 586,988 2,268,329 511,486 5,935,786

230,505

3 00

759 3 89g03 8577 56-53

1-62 l

94 I9

7586

51-31 76-72 75-27 8651 91-56 87-97 76-53

6658 89'75 8i o6
92'50 9028

94-73 96'51 97 92 I
9922Z 9I16 I
9450

go968

8678
95 93

1-22 8-88 12'94 10-63 8 54 7 67 13-00 6549

89 44 6 2z 63 88 69-oo 8z'8i 5958 84+63 697z2

93 78 81 10 82 72 82 46 90 10 7-69 91-11

90?37

96.99 98'54
95-00
02

1|,794,23

81-25 |

980

294

RAvENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

TABLI V.-EUNQARY.

Average PopuZation of each County Parish87. 198,oo0; ofeach

Civilian :Elements of thePopulation. which Counties Population, Increase, in Population. 1stJanuary, 1869-80. Parochial.County.Foreign.Austrian. Increased 1880. Percnt. Percnt. Percut. Per cnt. Percnt.

Budapest (capital) ........ 360,551 Peterwardein* ................ 114,115 Brod* ........... ..... 86,725 }reuz (K6ros) ................ 120,416 Eisenburg(Vas)* ........ 360,590 Yazygia ..... 278,443 B6kes ................ 229,757 Gradiska* .............. 61,699 Zala* ................ 359,984 Wieselburg (Moson) *.... 81,370 Gran (Esztergom) ........ 72,166 Belovir................ 135,962 Komorn ................ 151,699 Somogy(Simeg) ............ 307,448 (Odenburg*................ 245,787 Stuhlweissenburg(Feher) 209,410 293,414 Baranya ................ Tolna.234,643 Varasdin* ................ 220,663 ajdu .173,329 Csongrd ................. 228,413 Raab (Gy~3r).109,493 Pressburg* ................ 314,173 Sohi (Z61yom)................ 102,793 ................ 258,691 Agram* Bacs-Bodrog . 638,063 ........... Csanad .......... ...... 109,011 Bars ........ 142,139 ........ Petrinia(Bni)* ............ 134,225 208,487 Veszpr6m................ Marmaros* ................ 227,436 * Neutra (Nyitra) 370,651 Poiega ........... ..... 75,257 TurOcz ................ 45,933 Pest, rural ................ 627,069 Xronstadt(Brasso)* .... 88,929 381,304 ra'sso* ... EOnt ........ ........ 115,787 Borsod ................ 195,311
*

33-3
205 I I 13

8.7 8-6 8i 8-1 8'o 7-8 7-7 7-7 73 6-9 6-8 6-7 6-6 6.3 6-i 59 5-8 5-6 5.6 5-o 4.8 4. 6 4.6 3-6 3-6 3*5
3.I 2-7 2-5

424 67-3 68-4 78-2 68-6 81-3 70-6 67-2 72-1 72-2 79 5 71-2 60-1 75-5 67-1 68-8 75-7 82-9 81-2 81-9 66-0 67-6 77-1 73-4 79-8 71-3 71-2 79.5 69-6 85-3 73-2 62-5 70 3 77-1 777 82-5 69-3 74-4
81'4

5O03

77 4 78-9 9 14 94 7 go-6
91-3

10 86 2 47 2-16 1-59 0-28 0-51

308

285 1.95 oz_3 0-46 2,zI o-89 2.76

31 2 I.I4 1-51

9-35 I76

83.7

90g9

86 8 86-o 96-9 87-8 93 0 89-9 9* 6

92'0 90o5

95 Z 88.3 85.6 78.o 9z 8 86-7 957 8z25

902 90-7

94:3 88-7 96.3

9-z3 90'4

I*z

1o07
0-4

IcO

76.9 92 O 84-O 92-6 86-6 88-4

OI

0-98 3-40 1-27 2-90 1 08 0-68 2-32 0-80 1-79 038 2-37 0-54 0-76 1-16 4-04 0-86 5-74 0-41 0 44 0-83 1-23 0-48 1-08 1-95 8-77 1-12 0 89 2 00 1-49 0-80 0-69

2'31

0-58
2.15

0 9Z

0 70 i 6i 2 0-3

0o46
054 1-00

Z-29

o075 0-43

o'38

0-75 541 3I

3*74

v 16

o g8 r183 8-55 1-o6 o,74 I o4j O069 o 6I

vI5

or maritime Frontier county.

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

295

TABLE V-COntd.

Elements of thePopulation. Civilian Population, Decre1se, which Counties in Population. 1stJanuary, 1869-81. Parochial.County. Foreign.Austrian. Decreased 1880. Percnt. Per cut. Percnt. Percut. Per clt.

................ Udclvarhely Haromszek* ................ Syrmia ................ Zips (Szepes)* ................ Arva* ................ ................ :Bistritz Trencsen* . ............... Verocze . ............... Abauj ................ . Torda ... Torontal*................ Fogaras* ................ Hermannstadt* ............ Elausenburg (Kolozs) .... Szabolcs . ............... .............. Ugocsa .. Fiume* ................ Bereg* ................ Hunyad* ................ Saros* ................ Heves ................
Nagy-KiikIll6 ................ TUng*................

105,520 125,277 121,893 173,957 81,643 95,017 244,919 180,763 163,786 137,031 530,988 84,571 141,627 196,307 214,008 65,377 102,051 153,615 248,464 168,889 208,420
158,999 126,700

O04 0o5

o6 oc8
1*3
I>3

0-7

z26
2.7 2-7 2-7

2.5

a*6 1-7

81-8 80 0 65-1 77-6 87 3 82 5 81-0 65-2 63 9 82-0 74-8 88-4 87-9 77-4 64 8 76-5 78'6 74 6 83-2 75.5 77.5 74-1
84-9 70 5

75>3 94*9 97 3
96 1 929
9V23

97-2

95 9

0-22 0 29 1*31 1-38 1 06 1 05

1-58

017
OIO9

o087
I.55 2.98 0o6o
I -9

1-29 I103

79 4 85 4
90g2

95'* 95 8
89 1

94-3

Temes*................
Maros ................

396,045

132,454

3-4 3-5 3-5 3-7 3.8 38

38 3-9

3-0 3.I

2-9

83-8 88.3 93 8 960o

94-2

90g0

952. 91I0

192,590 N6grad ................ ...... 165,268 Glm6or.......... Szatmar . ............... 293,092 Weissenburg . ............. 178,021 303,964 Arad ............... Lipt6 (Liptau)* ............ 74,758 Csik*............. .. 110,940
Zemplen Ogulin* . .............. 150,278

39 4-7 5.
5 1

777
I

66-8 71P5 73-4 82-9 75-9 87-8 85-9 82-2 80-1 71-4 76-2
79-1 70 3 85-4

94 I 88-I 92.6

86z>

0-52 036 0-55 0-60 0-67 0-31 7-41 1-04 0'71 1-39 0 37 0 50 0 33 1-24 0-39 0 44 0-29 1-00 0-57 1'04 0-14 0-20 0-20 0 49 0 10 0*35
1-45 187 0 38 0 34

0-13 1'22

3 21 1-32

I*I6

O037 o0I4 03 1

0.48 o-6I
o02Z

o099

6.44

O.52 I *33
03I 0.34 o0 9
O.25

Kis-akuI..ll ................ Szolnok . .............. Torna . .............. Bihar . ..............

...............

273,102

5.6 5.6 57 5-9 79 8-o 97

6.7

88.5 94-5 97.6

90?9

97 7 94.0

92-5

ro6 I 034 039

O2 3 o083 o052. 034

0-71
ioIO

Szilggy ............... Gospic (Lika)* ............ Total ....

92,214 193,627 20,913 446,777

171,079

io07
jz21

93.8 95 7 87.o
92-9

151,045

I42.

86 7
74-6

95-o

98-9
90?3

o0og o-i6 0oig o04Z 0o0 7

0-33
V2

15,642,102

+iO144

Frontieror maritime county.

296

RAVENSTF.IN-The Laws of Migration.

[June,

TABLE VI.-NORWAY.

Average Populationof eachDistrict or "Amt" 90,395; of eachParish 3,515.

Population,
,

Districts (Amts).

Annual of 31st per District outside Pion theDistrictParo Cent. P1oula' December, Nati-I opa 1875. thial District. in throughout I Foreign. o 1866-75 Born. n. Norway.which Perent. Pe Percnt. Percnt. Per cnt. Percnt. Population. Percot.
each enumerated Migra,

Natives of

Pro ortion ofNatives

Elements of thePopulation.

Result

of

increase

Iristiania (city) ... Bergen (city)........ Tromsoe........... Finmark........... Akershus ...........

76,054 33,830 54,019 24,075 116,365

44,976 28)479 48,98I I9,283

107,302

No.

287 25-2 5-8 8-2 18'2

4.7

42.48 63,o8

93*81 6-19 40-8 98-62 1-38 I8-8

Gain.

3-19 2-10 1-84 1-74 0-82 1P48 0-80 0-24 0-56 0-67 0-89 0-14 0-51 1-17 dec. 0-03

75-82 85-52 97-z8 2-72

9-3

6A246 73-60 87-68 12-32 20z0 60-48 75.44 972 9 771I3 89 89 988 8. 69-80 86-65 97 49
642z I 84-61

3-71 115 2-51

4-43

7.8 5-8 47 3.o 2.3

Nordland ........... 104,151 Nedenaes ........... Jarlsberg ........... 73,415 87,506

98,070 67,962 84,850 io8,467 114,634 1o6,904 83,o67

121,499

7.9 12-7 2-1 914 14-2 7-4 8-6 15-2 11-1

95 47

Stavanger ........... 110,965 SouthTrondhjem.. 116,804 Smaalenene ........... 107,804 Bratsberg ........... 83,171

73.8I 93-0 199 35 73-96 88-96 99 45 63.92 85-50 9229 74-z6 92'44 9821

0-65

0-55 IV9 7-71 1-69 o-8 o-I Loss.

1I9 C9
2-2

South Bergenhus 119,303 Romsdal........... 117,220 NorthTronddhjem 82,271 Buskerud ........... 102,186 Lister and Mandal 75,121

82zo6 93-33 99-76 0-24

77'03

115,048 84,104 Io6,738 78,332

128,750

93-11 99.84 0-16 0-65 1-39 0-79 1-55 0 05

75o01 90-88 99 35
75?00 88-94 99.5I

15-0
10-4 12-1 10-5 12-6 11-6

2-4

0-18
0-17 0Q02 dec. 0 01
,,

77'15 93-39

99 21

4'3 6.7 8.5 9,6

Gain.

Hedemarken........ 120,618 NorthBergenhus Xristians ........... 86,208 115,814

8 1-46 93-80 99 45 86-85 97,23 99 95 85.82 9583

93,599 I26,965 1,769,640

99-69 0-31

0-71 0-59

Norway ..-1,806,900

73o05 87-21 98-94 2-06

zct

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

TABLE VII.-SWEDEN.

297

1,818. Average 182,627; ofeachParish ofeachDistrict Population

of Natives Population, e 31st December District llecember, 1880. Proportion of Natives ofthePopulation. Elements niiua_
__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _-

Districts Districts (Lin).

outside the District Paro- DitittionNati-

enumerated

Result of Home Anua s

Migra-

ofre per ptpnla ofu Cent.

onal. chial. 1871-80. Born. Per wlrdgD. tion. Per cnt. Sweden. which Percnt. PopulaPercnt. cut. Percnt. Percnt. Foreign.
No. Gain.

Absorption. Stockholm(city) 167,847 Gefleborg ........... 178,077 BOhUS.b 260,483

93,01I

158,866
235,171

25-0 5-8 4-9

41'56 41-56 990o2 1 8o049 83 98 99,7 78-I8 85-89 76-36 92-58 81-40 91-54
99-25

198 0 29 075 0 84 0-31 1-07

0-09

44 59
O173

2-18 1-94 1-18 2-31 1.14 1173 1-20 1-01

1101

9.72 8-oo 6.5z

322

Vesternorriand.... 168,131 Stockholm(rural) 146,182 83,282 Jemtland ........... Vestmanland.... ... 128,342 Malmbhus ........348,738 110,749 Uppsala ........... Gotland ........... 54,550 Norrbotten ........... 90,753 Halland ........... 135,018

I154,684 136,653 8o,603 124, 5I 3 339,68O 108,3I1 53,639 89,753

T34,756

3-6 85.71 18-4 74 24 4-3 91*28 16.1 760o7 6-3 8I*63 18-8 6-6 20 80 90 12-0 10 1 11 6 5-8 18-0 12 0 13'5 16'3 12 4 11-7 11-7 13 9 11-1

88 70 991i6 99-69 98'93 99-9I

991I8

299

73 33 79*40 99 82 86-z6 91-88 99'87 971I6 96B95 99.I2 88-O9 91 80 99 7I 85-26 91-22 99-74 8z 98 9043 99 86 90o18 92 69 99-79 88-95 91 22 99'6i 96-38 97-93 99-85 79 95 86,24 99-86 88-04 93 24 99 88 820O9 91 70 85'40 89 39 93 69 9107 9o 84 94 73 91i68 95 07 91.41 92 78 79 92 99 85 99 9 I 99 86
99*92

0 82 2-6O 0-18 Z 20 0,13 1.67 0?88 029 0-26 0-14 021 039 0 15 0,14 012 0 15
0'09 I'Io 0O19 Loss.

0 11
1-78

0-62 0 87 049 0 80 038 1'48 0-78 0 50 0-87 0-84 0 34 0-57 0 30 0 66 0.91

Dispersion.
Blekinge........... Eopparsberg ........ Kristianstad ........ Vesterbotten ........ .... SWdermanland Kalmar ............ ........... Jbnk6ping Orebro ........... Elfsborg........... Skaraborg ........... Vermland ........... Kronoberg........... 137,360
137,810

033

Ostergbt]and ........ 266,984 190,059 230,474 106,432 147,076 244,997 196,159 182,193 288,048 257,676 268,315 169,703

274,373
195,902 237,792 110,567 154,77 I
259,521

2'77 3 07
31I 7

3.88
5.27

207,971 I 94,475 307,920

276,366 289,043 I 82,895

99-57 99-65

014 0 08 0-43 035 0 41

5 93 6 oz 6 74 6 9O 7'26 7-73 7 77
Gain. 0.41

4,557,628* 4,539,O46

88-54 99-59

is not kown. # Exclusiveof 8,040 personswhosebirth-place

298

RAVEN.STEIN-The Laws of Migration.

TABLE

[June,

Average Population of a Department 435,985; ofa Parish 1,058.

Elements of thePopulation.
- _______ -

VIII.-FRANCE, 1886.

International Departments. ~~~ ~~~~~~of Departments. Parochial. Dmepnata National. Foreign. Population, Migration, N1881-86. 1881-86. Deptart. &cc.,
Percnt. Per cut. Per Cut.' Per cnt. Percut. Percuit.

or Decrease

Increase

by Home and

GainorLoss

Seine-et-Oise.. (Paris) ..... Rh6ne . . Maritime Alpes.. Haute Rhin (Belfort) ]Bouches-du-Rhbne Gironde . . Indre-et-Loire ........ Meurtheet Moselle Aube . . Seine-et-Marne .. Eure-et-Loire Marne . . . Finistsre. Seine Inferieure .. . Drome . Meuse . . Haute Garonne .. . Vo ses . Var . .58-9 Hautes Alpes.. Puy du Dbme.. Cantal . . Loire Inf6rieure Maine-et-Loire Pas-de-Calais .. Vaucluse . . Herault . . Calvados.... . Aude . . .. Lot-et-Garonne Tarn-et-Garonne Gard . . Eure . . Oise . . Sarthe . . C6te d'Or .. Iioiret . . Haute Vienne.. Yonne . . .58-0 Ain . Manche . . Nord . . - . Creuse Corsica -85-6 Aisne -55-2 Somme -64-5 Indre . . Basses Alpes ...

41-1 31-4 46-9 64-1 48-1 54-6 543 49-8 49-1 55-20 48-8 50-3 474 73-4 44-8 8-1 60-6 64-3 599 71-6 745 744 70-1 56-5 64-7 88-3 53-8 58-0 68-1 86-8 46-2 46-4

6o5 38.9 652 777 63.7 65.9 726 79-2 73 0 80-5 73'5 828 74'o 83.6 85.6 8zz 84.o 86.4 8 7.z 94 5
9 21
77.I

95z

67-7 53-1

85z 87-o 87.; 95'4

84.6

90.4

9686 92-28 9729 8650 70-02 91'04 90'07 99-58 90-67 98-64 96-99 99-42 99'26 99.93 98-95 99 35 98-28 99-01 95-83 93-71 97-26 99-83 99-82 99 79 99-80 98-16

3.14 7A72
2.71 I3.41

I9*98

8 96 9 93 0 4z 9'33 1V36 0o58 3'74 1.05 o 65 272

0.07
3.01

41I7

0o99

9947

8z8
89'2

85.3 93'9 79.6

98-84 99i25 97-39

o-I8 ozI o0:o I-84 05 3

01I7

6-29 2-74

i i6

- 056
-

6-98 5678 4-22 5-06 7.43 2-69 3-68 3-58 2-95 0-60 1-76 1-29 1'82 3-86 2-38 0'27 073 0-66 1-68 - 1-68 0-93 0-87 2 35 2-92 2-78 4-21

Gain. 7.9o 4.87 4'74 4'73 4'35 4.i6 3-68

3'04 227 z2oo tc8z I8 I
I17 1.05 09I

1.45
4z

0o99

0'97

48-9

55-0 64-0
53-5 61-9

77 1 87o 8z 8 8o-6
87.I

99-67 99-20 99-23 97-23 99-82 99-62 99-91

98-49

c075 z-6I

o8o 2V77 oii8 0-38 oop 0.49 I*39 o022

1o.52 148 0.59 094 0.77

033

1/51

99-06

90-7

99-51
98-61

0i59 1-26 - 1-44 - 1-38 0-35 - 1-50 - 1-35 -0-64 - 0-33 1-72 3-96

o-6 I o.56
0-53

085 o.84 o83 o 8z o 8e o-8r o-69 o63

o047
041

o024 0-20 0OI9

0o41

0O0

0.15

0-47

OO OO OO

61-2
60-4

68-3

950o

82-5 94'4

87'I 92-2

99-28
89-48 96-63 98-52 99-84 97-39

99-92

60-6 69-7

89o 89-6 89-9

84.8

oo8 3 37

0-26 - 105 4-16 2-16 0-17 2-94

Loss. o o6
0o09 Oro 0O10 0.14

2-22

99-41

ox 6 z6i

--

0-34

-1-84

0o29
0.31

0-29

o027

1889.]

RAVENSTEIN-The Laws of Migration.

299

TABLE

VIII-Contd.
or Decrease

Elements of thePopulation. Departments.

Increase GainorLoss

of International Parochial. Depart- National. Foreign. Population, Migration, Deptart.N1881-86. &c.,1881-86. Per cnt. Percnt. Per cnt. Percnt. Percnt. Percot. 63'8 94f0 95.8 87.6 94 1 90g0 92'3 90g0 93.8 9Z 7

by Home and

Vendee .............. Loir-et-Cher............ Correze .............. Orne .............. PyreneesOrientale.. Savoie .............. Isere .............. Ile-et-Vilaine ............ Haute Loire ............ l Savoie ............ Morbihan ..............
Tarn ..............

53-2 82 3 73-8 67 6 62 8 77-1 76A4 71P3

66f1

84.4

56-9

86 3

99.93 99 81 99 83 96 87 96 95 99.43 99-68 99 94 96-76 93-12 99 82 99 78 98 93 99 82 98-41 97-31 99-86

99 91 99 95 99 88 99 99

o0o7
O? I oI7 3.I 8 3*05 0-5 7
0oI9

3814 1 27
-2 2-97

Loss.

83'o

oo6

o032

3-24 0-05
o0I 2

-1-14

36 1 14 0-37 0-24 0-96

O45 o.5 I 1 O05 `5 2 o08z

O093 r .o3 I07 I

o.41 o4

o 62 o 68 o 85
og98 0o4

Ardennes .............. 58-2 Deux-Sevres ............ 57 0 52-1 Allier. Hautes Pyrenees 74... 42 59 8 Nibvre .............. Gers.............. 55-4 59 6 Doubs .............. .............. Charente 52-4 52-1 .............. Mayenne 54-6 Cher .............. 6141 Jura .............. 61P0 Vienne .............. 681, Ardeche .............. 72-0 .............. Aveyron COte du Nord............ 72 1 CharenteInf6rieure. 681
Basses Pyrenees 71....... Lot ........ .......

83.3 876
87.5
91I1

927

6 88 oa 8
o02 2

- 013 - 027

O034 2-61

86-5 85.z
8 7-I 88'9 88-i 8. I

88 4

0.07 oxI8

99-86
98-58

56-7 Loire ........ ..... Haute SAone............ 65-1 Haute Marne............ SAone-et-Loire ........ .. Arihge Landes ............. Dordogne ............. Lozbre . France........
97-1

14

2 26 961i 92,9 go- 8 99 4

88.4 93*3

99-80 99.84 9986 99-91 99 50

97-00

o.I4 o o9 O-14 I 4z

z*69

1I59

1-04 188 - 020 0-02 2-54 0 04 - 117 1-39 0 73 - 0 37 0-11 0 77

018 - 140 1P14

o099

I.I4 21 124 133

o ,o
014

oi 6 0o09

i49 Ir8i I*8z I*89

I*91 I

o5o
300

94 _o-z
2V04 2.I4

8o o 88'9
90?3 94 0 85-0
9CI0 951,

58-4 551 76-5 67-9 67-5

77-9

8z 8

99-62 98 71 99-88 98-66 99-78 99-83 99172 99-22 99-20 97 47

o038 39
oIz

- 0-32

0-32 o0I7 O-28 o-8o

1r34

0-59 - 1-68 - 3-12 - 2178 0 05

- 1-28
-1

2 2I
2z26

o78

0-38 0 57
60

2z42 2.45 2-46 2.46 3o00 3.51 5.12 Gain. 0.45

56 6

79*7

2.53

1-40

TDLEI IX.-DOMINION

OF CANADA.

Average Population of each Province 540,60o;

of Natives
Provinces. Provinces1881.

Nativ

of thePopu Elements
_ _ _ _ _ _ _-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

P plto, Population,

throughout the Dominion.

each Province ec Poice-p

Provincial.
Per cut.

..American

Dominion.
Per cnt. 9TC25

(Unite

(Unite

Per

PrinceEdward Island ............ Nova Sootia ............. New Brunswick ............. Quebeo..*.............................

108,891 440,572 321,238 1,359,027

101,047

87-46 92-08 86A43 93 39 74 65 2732

420,o88 z288,z65 1,327,809 1,467,988 19,590

32,275

95'91 9027 94'65 77 65 274'34

01

Ontario................................... 1,923,228 .... BritishColumbia. Territories ........5 Dominion ........ Manitoba

65,954

2-

26

.49,459 |6,446 4,324,810

6506 24684 |
9174 8288

706
95-54

58,430

0-

3,715,492

85-91

11

tav enstzsn* laws o*Fi&r&tion.

WESTERN
DI6TR IB UT IO N
AU Asor, ofi v-fA

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OF
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Propoorion I 2. VAJ
to-*3j.

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3.

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77

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Rasvexstein

s laws

of MiAraon-

2.

WESTERN
COuNrRIE$ OF DISPERSION jJ

E UROPE.
AND
a ?Mrs nLAa.

ASSOIIPTIO
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Ste nMAuiu Aeapat adwo Aas Staics I>h14L sae. Ma-Age '

4-'.

XGqO9

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Rt'vtAetc;4Lls

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1889.]
TABLE

RAVENSTEIN-The

Laws of Migration. STATES OF AMERICA.

301

Averaye Population of eachStateor Territory 1,067,144.

Elements of thePopulation, 1880. orTerritory. State aeor or. State. Per cnt. Results ofMigration.* Among National. Foreign. Natives IncludingPersons ofForeign Birth. Per cnt. Per cnt. Per cnt.
only. Gain or Loss

X.-THE

UNITED

Percnt.

Colorado ............................ . . . Dakota Wyoming ... Montana ... Kansas .. ............... Nebraska ... Idaho . . . Arizona . . . Nevada ... ,Washington ... .. . Oregon California ... .. Columbia (district) Arkansas .................. Minnesota ... . . . Iowa West Virginia . ......... ... Michigan Florida ... Missouri ... . . . Illinois ... Louisiana Utah . . . ... Mississippi Indiana ... Wisconsin .... Rhode Island. . New Jersey ... Sassachusetts ... New Mexico . . Alabama ... Connecticut ... Maryland ... ... Delaware Pennsylvania ... Kentucky ... Tennessee ... New York ... NorthCarolinar.. Ohio . . . -SouthCarolina.. Maine. . New Hampshire.. ... Virginia Vermont ...
*

Texas

120 184 23 5 21-2 18-4 20 22 0 25-8 389 54-7 37-7 454 54 4 38-7 454 64-2 492 64-4 585 556 77-5 567 76-3 68-4 527 55'2 64-1 610 84-5 604 639 905 81'5 754 790 850 8469-9 961 70'7 956 877 69'9 94-8 75-7 67'37

13'6 13'1

79'5 719 7o'6 88 9 77-I 69'4 6O3 58-8 79o 8z'5 9z8 66' 98'7 957 76'3 96'3 943 69-4
99'2 902 8 ril 839 97"I 90'4
6I*7

20'5 28 1 29-4 11'1 22-9 30-6 39-7 41-2 21-0 175 7-2 339 9'6 1'3 43 16'1 29 23'7 3-7 98 18-9 5-7 30'6 08 73 30-8 27-2 197 249 6-7 0'7 209 0.7 8'8 6-4 13-7 3-3 1.1 23'8 03 12 3 0'7 9'1 13-4 1-0 12'3 13-71
38-3

72'8 68'7 68.5 68'o 65'9 6 '7 5O'1 45'4 43 4

381I

752Z

794

Gain.

83-6 82-6 77.9

8417

378 36'2 34'2 33*4 29'9 z6'7 z6'z

I

Z.5I 9'9 9'Z

92-7 69z 72'8

80'3 75'I

Georgia

...

93' 99'3 79-1 993 912 93. 6 86'3 96'7 989 76-z 997 87'7 993 90g9 86-6
99'0

87'7

+ 4'8 - 4-5 + 13-4 -11-5 2'4 - 6'1 + 2,3 13'3 i6'8 - 12'6 - 15'9 17-2 + 6-5 17-3 - 17-0 17'3 - 3-2 17'8 - 187 I9-8 - 14'7 z6'3 7 29-4 79 - 40-1 41I4 47 6 _ . 29 0
+ 13'71

1'z z'o 5'4 9'5 iz'z 1z4 iz'8

I.7 O04 O3 Loss.

78 7'8 58 2o

76-2 77.5 70-6 70-2 53-3 42'5 58-7 42-4 351 56-2 41-3 23'8 43'8 27-5 27-7 26'4 13-2 36-0 6-6 %93 32-0 27-0 19 9
- 23-9

71l9 75-0

86-69

Computed as follows:Colorado, nativeAmerican of Colorado population, 154,537; natives theUnion, gainn22,710 = 79 4 percent. throughout 3I,827; hence, of thenative popuation of 1880. of Colorado, Or,total population, I94,327; natives a gainof I62,490 = 83'6 percent. 31,827; hence,

VOL. LiI.

PART II.

302

[June,

DiscusSION ons MuR. RAVENSTEIN'S

PAPER.

MR. N. A. HUMPHREYS said that the paper to which they had just listened was one to be studied ratherthan discussed. There was however one point of interestwhich had not been dealt with in the paper, namely, the destination of all the emigrants from Europe, and especially fromthe United Kingdom. The last census report showed that nearly 4 millions of the natives of the United Kingdom were known to be in 1881 living elsewhere. One peculiaritywith regard to the emigrationfromEngland was that, so far as the census authorities had been able to find out, only ioo,ooo of the natives of the United Kingdom were in 1881 living in Europe, whereas nearly 3 millions were living in the United States, and nearly another million in the colonies. With regard to the contrastbetween England and France, the United Kingdom lost on the balance by migration between 1871 and 1881 164,000 persons,while France, on the otherhand, in part compensationfor the low birth-rate, actually increased its population by the balance of migration to the extent of 149,000. No doubt Mr. Ravenstein was correct in assuming that one of the reasons why England contained such a small proportion of foreignerswas its insular position. It was an interestingfact that whereas England had supplied prior to 1881 4 millions to the population of different parts of the world, she really only contributedto the populationof France the small amount of 36,447 persons. Aftercarefullyreading Mr. Ravenstein's former paper, and listeningto the presentone, he arrived at the conclusionthat migration was ratherdistinguished for its lawlessness than for having any definite law. He could not recogniseany law fromthe figuresthat Mr. Ravenstein had brought beforethem otherthan the simple fact that overcrowdingof population was a prelude to dispersion. The difficulty however of establishing the existence of a law of migration did not detract from the great value of the figures which Mr. Ravenstein had submittedto them. Mr. T. H. ELLIOTT said that the paper had ratherwhetted than appeased his curiosity,inasmuch as any laws of migration could probably be supported by a much larger number of proofs than were as yet available. It ought he thought to be remembered that in a countrywith a high birth-rate it was possible that there might be both a considerable increase in the population and a large amount of emigrationto other countries,and it therefore by no means followed that a countryof dispersion might not be in a better position than a country of absorption. Of course in any considerationof the laws of migration the economic conditionsof a countrymust also be taken into account. Where, as in America the attractionsof virgin soil are existing,the population would of

1889.]

Discussion on M3r. Rtvenstein'sPaper.

303

course flowthereto. He thought that too much importance had been attached to the blue patches on the border line. A great many facts had been submittedto the meeting,and he hoped that Mr. Ravenstein would on a future occasion analyse the causes which led to the existence of those facts. Mr. STEPHEN BOURNE said that although Mr. Ravenstein had spoken of " Laws of Migration," he had not formulated them in such a categorical order that they could be criticised. It was quite clear that the migrationmust be governed not by the size of the space included within the border line, but by the length of that borderline. The only law with which they were conversant was that where a population treads upon each other's toes, there was a disposition to seek more open spaces, and that was the reason why England sent forth so many of her inhabitants. If there was any peculiarity,such as the gold fieldsof Australia, or the virgin soil of the west of America, of course people would be attracted there. if Mr. Ravenstein would kindly collect together and give a tabular statementof the two classes of countries,those of dispersion and those of absorption,there would be something that they could investigate critically. Mr. Ravenstein had pointedly asked him (MIr.Bourne) why it was that Maine was a country of great dispersion? The real reason was that Maine was one of the earliest settled provinces of America, and as the inhabitants were prone to seek for unexhausted lands, they followedthe general rule and migratedtowards the otherseaboard. The theory that tropical Africa must be colonised from the old countrieson its borderswas not consonantwith the historyof the case. No doubt the firstinstinct of persons who migrated was to choose the countrywhich involved the least amount of labour and expense in travelling; but in a country like England, having portions of the empire all over the world, emigration was not confined to any particular locality. Our insular position too affordedmore easy transit to far distances. Tropical Africa was not at all likelyto be settledfromthe borderingnations of Europe, because those were not the nations in which the migratoryspirit was most prominent. He thought that tropical Africa would be reached fromthe Cape of Good Hope and the western and eastern coasts, followingthe streams into the interior,rather than from the old and decaying nations that bordered the Mediterranean. He did not quite gather any general law as to why female migrants were increasing so much. He could understand that they did not go long distances as a rule, because they were not so qualifiedfortravel as the male sex; but the reason why females migrated from large towns into the country was because the facilities of education and association attracted them from outlying districts. Sir R. W. RAWSON thought it was very doubtful that the peopling of Africawas likely to proceed fromthe northsouthward. The Sahara would be a barrier to the extension of population southward, except down the Nile. He agreed with Mr. Elliott x2

304

Discussion

[June,

theinterior within of be goingon as actively thatmigration might as acrossthe borders. But the governments a county or country and countycouncilsand poor law boards of different countries, in ascertaining the number wereinterested smaller within spheres, and passedout oftheir whoentered France jurisdiction. ofpersons that the governto such an extent, of absorption was a country must in regardto its politicstake into consideration mentthere in the socialcondition of itspopulation;whileon the thechanges it was sending of dispersion; was a country handGermany other a yearintoforeign countries. Four or out hundreds of thousands were tenand a half millionsof fiveyears ago he said that there and Mr. Ravensteinwas then out of Germany, Germans existing the number. The emigration thathe had understated of opinion mustto France,to Germany, have an of Italy to South America, in theconsideration of thepolitics of Italy and Europe. influence wishedto ask Mr. Ravenstein whether he Mr. A. K. DONALD fromGermany was did not thinkthat the excessiveemigration service ofmilitary there ? He was of due to thestrain verylargely thatmostof theartizanclass who leftGermany couldget opinion quiteas gooda livingthereas in Englandor in America. He did their but the amount notmeanthatnominally wageswereas much, of practicalcomfort they had was quite as great. One of the was causedby over-poputo think thatmigration seemed speakers their latedcountries population. Mostpeoplewouldthink spilling and yet therewas a verylargeinflux. A Londonoverpopulated, similarstate of thingsprevailedin other capital towns,where often couldnotbe obtained. livingwas dear,andwhereemployment thatvery a spiritof adventure often He was undertheimpression as themeredesirefor had quiteas muchto do withthemigration morebreadand butter. Too muchhad beenmadein thepaper of linesas showing anything veryextraordinary, because thedivision with the such lines mightbe made on any part of any country thelaws of migration were discovered the sameresults. Before and he fancied mustbe known, that thosein causesof emigration character, the first place would be foundto be of an economical extentdue to the spiritof adventure which and to a secondary mightexist in some races morethan in others. It was a very did notgo very fact that as a generalrule emigrants interesting to province;thispointed to but simply far, pushedfromprovince intoEngland as one of the causes of the of foreigners theinflux of Englishmen. emigration that Mr. Ravenstein Mr. R. HAmILTON considered had madea contribution to thatgeneralization and interesting very satisfactory them to makea law ofmigration whichwouldenable of particulars difficult hereafter. It was an exceedingly thingto knowwhereto of thisnature. It was drawthelinein preliminary investigations to note how easy means of communication between satisfactory countries intercourse in different was leading to more intimate verymanyways. It sometimes happenpdthat the wantsof one countrywere curiouslysupplied by the workmenof another.

1889.]

on illr. Ravenstein's Paper.

305

Thus for instance in the construction of the Forth Bridge, notwithstandingthe large amount of excellent labour to be obtained in England, Italian workmen had the preference in laying in comparatively deep water the foundations of the enormous buttresses required for that great work. English labourers are in their turn often required to do special kinds of work abroad. The subject of migration is a broad one, and important movements are going on in many other parts of the world. There was a strong migration from the north-westof Africa down by the valley of the Niger. There was also a strong influx on the eastern coast of the same continentfrom various causes, and the migratory spirit,which was so prominentall over the world ages ago, seemed to be very active at the presenttime. Many different phenomena would have to be generalised before they could have what in the proper sense of the word could be called a law of migration. Major CRAIGIE asked Mr. Ravenstein if it would not be possible to give some more informationwith regard to the movements of the foreignelementin the United States. So large a portion of the population of the newly settled Western States was made up of European immigrants, that a record of their primary destination and subsequent settlementwould add to the value of the paper. Mr. RAVENSTEIN, in reply, said that in preparing some of his maps of North America, he had left the foreign element out of rules from the native account,because it followed quite different population. The object was to show that the invasion of a district decreased in strengthas the interiorwas approached. He did not for one momentclaim to have discovered any great laws, and he had expresslystated that the origin of migrationwas economical. All he had tried to show was how the firstimpulse was being broughtinto action. It was next to impossible to trace Englishmen, Frenchmen, and Germans throughout the world. Some figures in the Canadian census had struck him as expressing impossibilities. That census pretended not only to give the elementsof population according to birth,but to trace them back for generations. However, that was so large an inquiry that he must leave it to some othermember of the Society. Of course he had considered birth-rates,as otherwise he could not have computed the absolute loss and gain in the population of a country. He thoughtthat an inquiryinto the birth-rates and natural growth of large towns, as compared with what was going on in rural parts, would furnishexcellent materials for a valuable paper, and would bring forthsome very strange results. He had no reason to thinkthat emigrationfrom Germany was largely due to military service. If it were there ought to be no emigration from this country,but a large emigrationfromFrance, where the conditions of military service were even more onerous than they were in Germany.