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Iviet Technology Company: Sale Forecast For 2010

The document discusses iViet Technology Company's sale forecast for 2010. It analyzes sales data from 2005 to 2009 and uses four methods (additive/multiplicative moving average models and additive/multiplicative regression models) to forecast sales for each quarter of 2010. The multiplicative regression model is identified as the most accurate, predicting sales of 54,579 units in Q1, 53,029 in Q2, 36,260 in Q3, and 51,324 in Q4. Based on past annual sales growth, the recommendation is for iViet to increase production to meet expected customer demand as forecast by the most accurate multiplicative regression model.

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Dat Truong
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26 views

Iviet Technology Company: Sale Forecast For 2010

The document discusses iViet Technology Company's sale forecast for 2010. It analyzes sales data from 2005 to 2009 and uses four methods (additive/multiplicative moving average models and additive/multiplicative regression models) to forecast sales for each quarter of 2010. The multiplicative regression model is identified as the most accurate, predicting sales of 54,579 units in Q1, 53,029 in Q2, 36,260 in Q3, and 51,324 in Q4. Based on past annual sales growth, the recommendation is for iViet to increase production to meet expected customer demand as forecast by the most accurate multiplicative regression model.

Uploaded by

Dat Truong
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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iViet Technology Company

Sale Forecast for 2010

SOME DATA OF SALES VOLUME

2005
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 48 46 27 45

2006
52 48 32 50

2007
54 55 42 52

2208
50 54 37 46

2009
55 50 36 50

THE RESTRUCTURED DATA OF SALES

FOUR METHODS FOR FORECASTING

THE FOLLOWING CONSISTING OF 4 METHODS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. THE CONSEQUENCE OF ADDITIVE MODEL (MOVING AVERAGE) 2. THE CONSEQUENCE OF MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL (MOVING AVERAGE) 3. THE CONSEQUENCE OF ADDITIVE METHOD (REGRESSION) 4. THE CONSEQUENCE OF MULTIPLICATIVE METHOD (REGRESSION)

1. THE CONSEQUENCE OF ADDITIVE MODEL (MOVING AVERAGE)

Year

Quarter

Trend

Forecast of actual sales

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

48,300 48,650

5,758 4,320 -11,742 1,664

54,058 52,970 37,258 51,014

2010

49,000
49,350

2. THE CONSEQUENCE OF MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL (MOVING AVERAGE)

Year

Quarter

Trend

Forecast of actual sales

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

48,300 48,650 49,000 49,350

113% 109% 74% 104%

54,579 53,029 36,260 51,324

2010

3. THE CONSEQUENCE OF ADDITIVE METHOD (REGRESSION)


The outcome of a and b a= 44.214 b= 235.338 To sum up, the equation is : Y= 44.214 + 235.338X. The result of forecasting:
Year Quarter Trend S Forecast of actual sales

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

48,921 49,156 49,392 49,627

5,703 4,268 -11,768 1,797

54,624 53,424 37,624 51,424

2010

4. THE CONSEQUENCE OF MULTIPLICATIVE METHOD (REGRESSION)

Year

Quarter

Trend

Forecast of actual sales 54,792 53,580 37,044

Q1 Q2 Q3

48,921 49,156 49,392

112.00% 109.00% 75.00%

2010

Q4

49,627

104.00%

51,612

CONCLUSION
AMONG ABOVE FOUR METHODS OF FORECASTING, THE MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL (REGRESSION) IS THE MOST ACCURATE BECAUSE IT IS CALCULATED AS A PERCENTAGE. HENCE, THE RESULT WILL BE MORE ACCURATE THAN THE RESULT OF ADDITIVE MODEL THAT BASES ON FIXED NUMBERS.

The quantity of products are manufactured for quarters in 2010 as follows:


- Q1 2010: 54,579 - Q2 2010: 53,029 - Q3 2010: 36,260 - Q4 2010: 51,324
Forecast sales Y
60,000 50,000

40,000
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q.4

Forecast sales Y
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q.4 36,260 54,579 53,029 51,324

RECOMMENDATION
FOLLOWING

THE QUARTERLY SALES DATA OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS, THE

DEMAND FOR PERSONAL COMPUTERS RAISES EVERY YEAR. WILL BE GROWING IN

HENCE,

THE

CONSEQUENCE OF FORECASTING SALES OF PERSONAL COMPUTERS CONTINUE

2010. THE

COMPANY SHOULD PRODUCE MORE THE

QUANTITY OF PRODUCTS TO MEET THE CUSTOMER NEEDS BASED ON THE RESULTS OF THE MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL BECAUSE IT IS THE MOST ACCURATE RESULTS.

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