Ottawa’s tight Labour Market moderating in 2009

Employment (‘000s) SA Unemployment Rate (%) SA

520 Unemployment Rate SA 10
Average YTD 2009*
Employment SA
500 9
Employment 0.7%
480 8
+
460 7 Labour Force 0.1%
440 6 =

420 5 Unemployment
Rate 5.3%
400 4

380 3

360 2
7

9
9

0
n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-
Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju
Source: Statistics Canada
Seasonally Adjusted CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
2009* YTD average January to June
 with the Public Administration sector hiring the most

Average Employment per cent Growth by Sector, SA***

Y/Y % Change
30%

25% 2009* vs 2008* 2009Q2 vs 2009Q1

20%

15%

10%
5%

0%
-5%

-10%

-15%
-20%
5.4% 4.8% 5.8% 22.0% 47.2% 11.4% 2.9% YTD Share of
-25% Total
Construction FIRE* Manufacturing Public Services** Trade Transportation
Adm inistration

Source: Statistics Canada

* FIRE: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
** Excludes Health, Trade, and Transportation
200X * YTD average, January to June
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
*** Seasonally adjusted by CMHC
Ottawa’s workforce receives Canada’s highest salaries

Annual Average Weekly Earnings, Major CMAs

$1,000 37% $1,000

$900
$900

$800
$800
$700

$700
$600

$600 $500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Calgary Edmonton Toronto Vancouver

Ottawa Montreal

Source: Statistics Canada

2009* YTD, to June
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
 MLS® Sales moving closer to long-run trend

15,000
Total MLS Sales
-10%
15-Year Average
12,500
Annual MLS® Sales

10,000
0.6%

14,739
14,003

13,908
13,457

13,300

7,500

13,200
12,500
5,000

8,013
7,967
2,500

0
F

F
04

05

06

07

08

TD

TD
09

10
20

20

20

20

20

Y
20

20

08

09
20

20
Source: OREB
(F) Forecast by CMHC
YTD to June CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
As Supply stabilizes and Demand picks up…

2,200 2,200

2,000 2,000

1,800 1,800
New Listings SA*
1,600 1,600

1,400 1,400
Sales SA*
1,200 1,200

1,000 1,000

800 800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

2009* - to June
* Trend and seasonal adjustment by CMHC

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

 …the Resale Market temperature recovers
MLS® Sales-to-New Listings (SNL) Ratio, SA* MLS® Average Price, SA*
1.00 $310,000
Sales-to-New Listings (SNL) Ratio SA*, Ottawa Average MLS© Price, SA*

$280,000
0.80
Seller’s
Market $250,000
“HOT”
0.60
Balanced $220,000
Market
“WARM” 0.40
$190,000
Buyer’s
Market
“COOL” 0.20 $160,000

0.00 $130,000
98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

*
09
19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board
* Seasonally Adjusted by CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
2009* YTD to June
 lifting up the speed of inventory turnover…
MLS® Sales-to-Active
Sales-to-Active ListingsListings (SAL)SA*
(SAL) Ratio Ratio, SA*

40%
Seller’s Market

30%

20% Balanced Market

10% Buyer’s Market

0%
20 004

20 005

20 006

20 007

20 008
20 05

09

20 05

09

20 05

09

20 05

09

20 05

09

20 05

09
20 09*
M

M
20
2

2
04

04

05

05

06

06

07

07

08

08

09

09
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board
* Seasonally Adjusted by CMHC
2009* YTD to June
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
 Balanced Market will Moderate Price Growth

Annual MLS® Price ($) - Ottawa Annual Average Sales/New Listings

$300,000 $290,483 $289,000 0.8

$273,058
$275,000 0.7
$257,481
$248,358
$250,000 $238,152
0.6
$225,000 $219,713

0.5
$200,000

$175,000 0.4

$150,000 0.3

F
03

04

05

06

07

08

09
20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Avg MLS® Price Sales/New Listings
Source: OREB
(F) Forecast by CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
ANNUAL SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth

% % %
OTTAWA OTTAWA
2007 2008 Change 2006 2007 2008 Change Change
MLS® Average Price MLS® Sales (07-08) (06-08)
(07-08)

Single-Detached $307 $326 6.2% Single-Detached 8,113 8,456 7,986 -5.6% -1.6%

Bungalow $266 $283 6.4% Bungalow 2,352 2,502 2,341 -6.4% -0.5%

Two-Storey $346 $367 6.1% Two-Storey 3,942 4,085 3,932 -3.7% -0.3%

Row $244 $259 6.1% Row 1,934 2,107 1,955 -7.2% 1.1%

Semi-detached $269 $284 5.6% Semi-detached 843 907 845 -6.8% 0.2%

Condo Apartment $219 $237 8.0% Condo Apartment 1,350 1,515 1,392 -8.1% 3.1%

Condo Row $176 $189 7.5% Condo Row 1,501 1,558 1,526 -2.1% 1.7%
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board
TOTAL $273 $290 6.4% TOTAL 14,003 14,739 13,908 -5.6% -0.7%

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

Average price in thousands, rounded
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
YTD SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth

%
OTTAWA OTTAWA % Change
®
2008* 2009* Change 2008* 2009*
MLS Average Price MLS® Sales (08*-09*)
(08*-09*)

Single-Detached $361,248 $364,248 0.8% Single-Detached 4,625 4,469 -3.4%

Bungalow $296,907 $296,904 4.7% Bungalow 1,331 1,281 -3.8%

Two-Storey $374,342 $374,342 1.7% Two-Storey 2,347 2,279 -2.9%

Row $260,912 $270,120 3.5% Row 1,123 1,306 16.3%

Semi-detached $280,624 $292,032 4.1% Semi-detached 473 531 12.3%

Condo Apartment $241,883 $244,676 1.2% Condo Apartment 775 761 -1.8%

Condo Row $187,729 $198,888 5.9% Condo Row 839 663 -21.0%

TOTAL $302,789 $310,646 2.6% TOTAL 7,849 7,750 -1.3%

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

* Year-to-Date, to June
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
REGIONAL RESALE SUB-MARKETS

East Orléans
Downtown End
West End

Nepean South-
east

Barrhaven

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

ANNUAL SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth
MLS® Price by sub-market MLS® Sales by Sub-market
% % Chg. % Chg.
RANKING 2007 2008 RANKING 2006 2007 2008
Chg. (07-08) (06-08)
1. Orleans $263 $283 7.9%
1. Stittsville 432 484 467 -3.5% 8.1%
2. East End $227 $245 7.7%
2. Orleans 1,839 1,884 1,898 0.7% 3.2%
3. Downtown $382 $411 7.6%
3. Barrhaven 918 1,020 941 -7.7% 2.5%
4. Southeast $285 $305 7.1%
4. West End 1,278 1,406 1,295 -7.9% 1.3%
5. West End $302 $323 7.0%
5. Kanata 1,135 1,187 1,129 -4.9% -0.5%
6. Stittsville $312 $334 6.9%
6. Southeast 1,834 1,947 1,779 -8.6% -3.0%
7. Barrhaven $275 $292 6.4%
7. Nepean 1,017 1,099 959 -12.7% -5.7%
8. Kanata $274 $289 5.6% 8. Downtown 996 1,054 929 -11.9% -6.7%
9. Nepean $272 $279 2.8% 9. East End 1,000 1,012 900 -11.1% -10.0%
URBAN TOTAL $285 $304 6.5% URBAN
10,449 11,093 10,297 -7.2% -1.4%
TOTAL

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

Average price in thousands, rounded
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
YTD SUMMARY: MLS® Sales and Average Price Growth
MLS® Price by sub-market MLS® Sales by sub-market
2008 2009 % Chg. 2008 2009 % Chg.
RANKING RANKING
YTD YTD (08-09) YTD YTD (08-09)

1. East End $241,687 $265,752 10.0% 1. Barrhaven 540 683 26.5%

2. Nepean $281,849 $296,502 5.2% 2. East End 500 570 14.0%

3. West End $324,344 $337,813 4.2% 3. Stittsville 288 324 12.5%

4. Kanata $288,985 $293,803 1.7% 4. West End 726 793 9.2%

5. Southeast $309,130 $311,648 0.8% 5. Kanata 654 663 1.4%

6. Downtown $410,911 $413,912 0.7% 6. Orleans 1,151 1,163 1.0%

7. Barrhaven $298,314 $298,690 0.1% 7. Nepean 533 531 -0.4%

8. Orleans $289,680 $288,260 -0.5% 8. Southeast 1,012 994 -1.8%

9. Stittsville $334,529 $325,986 -2.6% 9. Downtown 555 514 -7.4%

URBAN TOTAL $306,644 $310,986 1.4% URBAN TOTAL 5,959 6,235 4.6%
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board
YTD – to June CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
 Share of Multiple Starts expected to increase as New
Home Market moderates
Number of Housing Starts by Type

9,000

8,000
Singles Multiples
7,000

6,000

5,000

3,533
4,042
4,000

3,250 2,125
3,500 2,000
3,000

2,000

2,973
2,956
1,000

F
88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08
09

10
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
20

20
Source: CMHC
(F) Forecast by CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Apartment Vacancy Rate will decrease further in 2009 and 2010

Vacancy Rate and 7-Year Average (%) Average Rent, 2-Bdr Apartments

4 $1,065 $1,100
3.5 $1,025 $1,050
$995
3 $961 $1,000
$941
2.5 $950

2 $900
2.3 2.3
1.5 $850

1 $800
1.4
0.5 $750
1.0 0.8
0 $700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f

Vacancy Rate Average Rent, 2-Bdr Apt

Source: CMHC
(f) Forecast by CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
FORECAST SUMMARY 2006 2007 2008 2009F

Economy
Employed (‘000) 483 488 500 500

Mortgage Rate 5 years 6.66% 7.07% 7.06% 5.64%

Resale Market
Total Sales 14,003 14,739 13,908 12,500

Average Price all units $257,481 $273,058 $290,483 $289,000

New Home Market

Single-Family Starts 2,479 2,973 2,956 2,125

Multi-Family Starts 3,395 3,533 4,042 3,250

Single Average Price $385,729 $396,762 $408,991 $411,000

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION