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Forecast Example

The document contains time series sales data from January 2009 to December 2012. It performs linear regression on the data to derive a trend line with a coefficient of 0.5516. It then uses the trend line to backcast sales values for periods with no data in order to develop a complete time series for forecasting purposes. Key metrics like mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are also included to evaluate forecast accuracy.

Uploaded by

Ehli Hibre
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
37 views

Forecast Example

The document contains time series sales data from January 2009 to December 2012. It performs linear regression on the data to derive a trend line with a coefficient of 0.5516. It then uses the trend line to backcast sales values for periods with no data in order to develop a complete time series for forecasting purposes. Key metrics like mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are also included to evaluate forecast accuracy.

Uploaded by

Ehli Hibre
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Forecast

Name MA_Ex
Moving Average
Column Names
Mean
Standard Deviation
MAD
Periods
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

1 - 10
20-Nov
21 - 30
31 - 40

Moving Average
n
t
10
1
Data
Data
Data
Data
MA(10) Fore(1)
Err(1)
9.8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
5.34997 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
***
***
***
#NAME?
4
16
12
25
13
12
4
8
9
14
3
14
14
20
7
9
6
11
3
11
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***

7
6
10
19

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

14
12
10
22

11
12
8
21

19
16
13
18

12
8
14
20

11
9
16
22

41 - 50

23

22

22

18

17

18

7
7
15
21

9
11
22
20

9
6
19
20

12
10
16
21

19

21

20

21

Forecast
Name MA_1
Moving Average
Column Names
Mean
Standard Deviation
MAD
Periods
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Moving Average
n
t
10
1

Data
Data
MA(10)
14.8 #NAME?
5.4037 #NAME?
***
***
7
14
11
19
12
11
7
9
9
12
6
12
12
16
8
9
7
11
6
10
10
10
8
13
14
16
15
22
19
16
19
22
21
18
20
22
21
20
20
21

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Data
Data
Fore(1)
Err(1)
#NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
***
#NAME?
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Forecast
Name Exp_1
Exp. Smoothing
Column Names
Mean
Standard Deviation
MAD
Periods
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Exponential Smoothing
Alpha
t
0.2
1
Data
Data
Data
Data
EXP
Fore(1)
Err(1)
14.8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
5.4037 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
***
***
***
#NAME?
7
14
11
19
12
11
7
9
9
12
6
12
12
16
8
9
7
11
6
10
10
10
8
13
14
16
15
22
19
16
19
22
21
18
20
22
21
20
20
21

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Forecast
Name Reg_1
Regression
Data
Column Names
Mean
14.8
Standard Deviation 5.4037
MAD ***
Periods
-9
7
-8
14
-7
11
-6
19
-5
12
-4
11
-3
7
-2
9
-1
9
0
12
1
6
2
12
3
12
4
16
5
8
6
9
7
7
8
11
9
6
10
10
11
10
12
10
13
8
14
13
15
14
16
16
17
15
18
22
19
19
20
16
21
19
22
22
23
21
24
18
25
20
26
22
27
21
28
20
29
20
30
21

Linear Regression
n
t
10
1
Data
Data
Reg. a
Reg. b Fore(1)
Err(1)
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
***
***
***
#NAME?
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
***
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Date

Sales
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12

Index
11400
10590
11811
10079
10596
10675
11083
10091
10896
10593
12489
19864
10810
10366
10314
10349
11085
11242
10807
10938
11190
11140
13124
21042
11138
10861
10899
10840
10755
11479
11088
10766
10697
11173
13347
22468
11203
11292
11155
11565
11662
10908
11293
11038
11036
11635

0.94
0.89
0.93
0.88
0.91
0.94
0.92
0.89
0.92
0.92
1.09
1.78
0.94
0.89
0.93
0.88
0.91
0.94
0.92
0.89
0.92
0.92
1.09
1.78
0.94
0.89
0.93
0.88
0.91
0.94
0.92
0.89
0.92
0.92
1.09
1.78
0.94
0.89
0.93
0.88
0.91
0.94
0.92
0.89
0.92
0.92

Adjusted
12191
11873
12750
11502
11652
11405
11986
11324
11852
11485
11437
11188
11560
11622
11134
11810
12189
12011
11688
12274
12172
12078
12019
11851
11911
12177
11765
12370
11827
12264
11992
12081
11636
12114
12223
12654
11980
12660
12042
13198
12824
11654
12213
12386
12005
12615

Coefficient
0.5516
Backcasted non-seasonal
11614.31
11631.41
11646.86
11663.96
11680.51
11697.61
11714.15
11731.25
11748.35
11764.90
11782.00
11798.55
11815.65
11832.75
11848.19
11865.29
11881.84
11898.94
11915.49
11932.59
11949.69
11966.24
11983.34
11999.88
12016.98
12034.08
12049.53
12066.63
12083.17
12100.27
12116.82
12133.92
12151.02
12167.57
12184.67
12201.22
12218.32
12235.42
12251.41
12268.51
12285.06
12302.16
12318.71
12335.81
12352.91
12369.46

Nov-12
Dec-12

1.09
1.78

12386.55
12403.10

25000
y = 0.5516x
20000
15000
10000
5000

Jan-10

Oct-09

0
Jul-09

0.25%
0.04%
0.90%
0.02%
0.00%
0.06%
0.05%
0.12%
0.01%
0.06%
0.09%
0.27%
0.05%
0.03%
0.36%
0.00%
0.07%
0.01%
0.04%
0.08%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
0.02%
0.01%
0.01%
0.06%
0.06%
0.05%
0.02%
0.01%
0.00%
0.18%
0.00%
0.00%
0.14%
0.04%
0.12%
0.03%
0.57%
0.19%
0.28%
0.01%
0.00%
0.08%
0.04%

Apr-09

mape
5%
2%
9%
-1%
0%
-2%
2%
-3%
1%
-2%
-3%
-5%
-2%
-2%
-6%
0%
3%
1%
-2%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-1%
1%
-2%
3%
-2%
1%
-1%
0%
-4%
0%
0%
4%
-2%
3%
-2%
8%
4%
-5%
-1%
0%
-3%
2%

Jan-09

Constant
-9541.2
Backcasted Seasonal
mpe
10861
10375
10789
10221
10622
10948
10831
10454
10800
10851
12865
20949
11049
10554
10976
10398
10805
11137
11017
10634
10985
11037
13085
21306
11238
10734
11162
10574
10988
11325
11204
10813
11171
11223
13305
21664
11426
10913
11349
10751
11172
11514
11390
10993
11356
11409

Sales
Linear (Adjusted)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

Sales
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct

13525
22022

Nov
Dec
0.01%

3.11%
Total
Mean

Linear (Adjusted)

Linear (Adjusted)

Linear (Adjusted)

Linear (Adjusted)

11,400
10,590
11,811
10,079
10,596
10,675
11,083
10,091
10,896
10,593

2010
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

10,810
10,366
10,314
10,349
11,085
11,242
10,807
10,938
11,190
11,140

2011
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

11,138
10,861
10,899
10,840
10,755
11,479
11,088
10,766
10,697
11,173

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Adjusted

2009
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

y = 0.5516x - 9541.2

Index

2009

2010

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct

0.98
0.91
1.01
0.86
0.91
0.91
0.95
0.86
0.93
0.91

0.91
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.93
0.95
0.91
0.92
0.94
0.94

$
$

12,489
19,864

$ 140,167
$ 11,681

$
$

13,124
21,042

$ 142,407
$ 11,867

$
$

13,347
22,468

$ 145,511
$ 12,126

Nov
Dec

1.07
1.70

1.11
1.77

2011 Mean
0.92
0.90
0.90
0.89
0.89
0.95
0.91
0.89
0.88
0.92

0.94
0.89
0.93
0.88
0.91
0.94
0.92
0.89
0.92
0.92

1.10
1.85

1.09
1.78

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