POPULATION PROJECTION AND WATER DEMAND ASSESSMENT Prof. S. D.

Chawathe

CONTENTS 1. BACKGROUND

2.

METHODS FOR FORECASTING POPULATION

3. DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND GUIDELINES 4. DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND SURVEY 5. NON- DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND 6. GROSS WATER DEMAND 7. EFFECT OF PRICE ON WATER DEMAND

TABLES

No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 POPULATION FORECAST BY ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD POPULATION FORECAST BY GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD POPULATION FORECAST BY GEOMETRIC RATIO METHOD POPULATION FORECAST BY INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD POPULATION FORECAST BY LOGISTIC METHOD POPULATION FORECAST BY RATIO METHOD POPULATION FORECAST BY COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL TREND FOR CITY C WATER SUPPLY FOR RESIDENCES DOMESTIC AND NON-DOMESTIC USE TYPICAL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION FOR WATER CONSUMPTION DATA STATISTICAL PARAMETERS FOR VARIOUS HOUSING CATEGORIES WATER REQUIREMWNTS FOR BUILDINGS OTHER THAN RESIDENSES WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR TRANSPORTATION CENTERS INSTITUTIONAL NEEDS INFLUENCE OF PRICE ELASTICITY ON DEMAND

FIGURES FIGURE

NO. 1 2 3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY RATIO METHOD GRAPHICAL TREND METHOD COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL TREND METHOD

ANNEXURES . A B SAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE FOR DOMESTIC DEMAND ASSESSMENT SAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE FOR HOTEL WATER DEMAND ASSESSMENT

SAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE FOR HOSPITAL WATER DEMAND ASSESSMENT LIST OF REFERENCES

POPULATION PROJECTION & WATER DEMAND ASSESSMENT

1.0 BACKGROUND Population projection and water demand assessment has been an integral part of various feasibility studies, detailed project reports and master plans being prepared for water supply projects in the urban sector. Formulation of proposals for rehabilitation or augmentation of water supply facilities requires the water demand for consumers in the project service area to be identified to the required accuracy. In the case of minor schemes of relatively smaller magnitudes or at pre-feasibility stage of relatively major schemes, the water demand assessment could be based on per capita water demand rates recommended in the publications of CPHEEO, Indian Standards or other Government Water authorities. For water supply projects of larger magnitude for cities and towns and especially where the projects need to be posed to financial institutions for loan assistance, it is necessary to conduct a detailed basic study for realistic assessment of water demand for the project service area. A great emphasis is laid on this aspect during technical appraisal of such projects by financial institutions. In short, these financial institutions ascertain that the water demand assessment for the project is based on actual field studies and not on any ready per capita figures available elsewhere. Various techniques for assessment of water demand are being used during project preparation. An attempt has been made herein to identify the techniques used for population forecasting and in conducting field studies for collecting data on domestic and non-domestic water demand for the service area of proposed water supply projects and in assessing the water demand . 1.1 General Water demand is normally classified as domestic water demand and non-domestic water demand. Domestic water demand covers use of water for drinking, washing, bathing, cooking and flushing i.e. for domestic purposes. Non-domestic water demand covers the use of water mostly for public purposes such as hospitals, hotels, educational institutions, offices, commercial establishments, railway stations, airports, gardens, swimming pools, theatres and fire fighting etc. Water demand is necessarily assessed for 100% satisfaction of the consumers. Under constrained resources, water is allocated to consumers and the actual water supply thus may not be able to meet the demand. Since most of the water supply schemes have to be generally designed to meet the water demand in the long run, it is necessary to estimate the water demand on 100% satisfaction basis. Design of system components is usually carried out for the critical scenario which could be the ultimate scenario based on 100% satisfaction of demand or any of the intermediate scenarios based on water allocation and partial satisfaction of demand. It is therefore necessary to assess domestic water demand and non-domestic water demand on a basis of full satisfaction of consumers. The actual approach and the methodology used for such assessment depends upon local conditions and on the type of information / ready data available in each case.

2.0

METHODS FOR FORECASTING POPULATION It is necessary to have inputs of population forecasts for the service area of a project before water demand assessment can be made. There are a number of alternate methods to forecast future population for urban / rural service areas. It is not always possible to make accurate population forecasts except for immediate future. However, it is advisable to use these methods to have alternate population forecasts and then select one of them for use in water demand assessment. The choice will be mostly governed by an in-depth knowledge of the characteristics of the service area in terms of its past growth, existing ward wise population densities, degree of saturation reached in terms of the densities by some wards, availability of infrastructure facilities, present and future land use employment opportunities, degree of industrialisation etc. Considering the above background information, it may be possible to have reasonably sound population forecasts for immediate future and relatively approximate forecasts for distant future. It must be remembered that the population forecasts for distant future will lead to a general idea of the overall picture of water supply / sewerage system needed in the long run. The system to be executed will be generally for the initial phase for immediate future for which the population forecasts can be reasonably sound. The overall system identified based on the approximate forecasts of population for distant future allows the designer to ensure that the initial phase system which is going to be executed fits the overall system in the long run. In any case, for execution of additional system at a later stage the exercise of overall population forecasting is repeated all over again. Following paragraphs describe various methods of forecasting population with worked examples.

2.1

Arithmetic Increase Method Based on past population data, this method works out an average arithmetic increment in population per decade and uses this increment to forecast future population. Table 1 depicts the method of forecasting population by this method.

TABLE 1

POPULATION FORECAST BY ARITHEMETIC INCREASE METHOD

2

Past Population of a Typical City YEAR Y 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 Population X 9,50,541 11,38,650 13,30,758 15,10,866 16,90,184 19,01,082 Arithmetic increment / decade -1,88,109 1,92,108 1,80,108 1,79,318 2,10,898 Arithmetic mean increment = 1,90,108

Population (2001)

= =

Population (1991) + mean increment 19,01,082 + 1,90,108 = 20,91,190 Population (1991) + 2 x mean increment 19,01,082 + 2 (1,90,108) 22,81,298

Population (2011)

= = =

2.2

Geometric Increase Method This method presupposes that the population growth takes place in a geometric progression rather than a simple linear arithmetic progression. Thus, forecasting of population can be carried out by using the arithmetic increase method to deal with logarithms of population. Table 2 depicts forecasting of population by this method.

TABLE 2

POPULATION FORECAST BY GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD

Past Population of a Typical City Year Y 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 Population X 9,50,541 11,38,650 13,30,758 15,10,866 16,90,184 19,01,082 Log 10 x 5.978 6.056 6.124 6.179 6.228 6.279 Increment decade -0.078 0.068 0.055 0.049 0.051 Average Increment/ decade = 0.0602 Log Population (2001) = Log Population (1991) + mean increment = 6.279 + 0.0602 = 6.3392 Population (2001) = 21,83,735 = 6.279 + 2 (0.0602) = 6.3994 Population (2011) = 25,08,418 Log Population (2011) = Log Population (1991) + 2 x mean increment

2.3

Geometric Ratio Method This method is similar to Geometric Increase Method. Geometric ratios of consecutive decadal populations are formed and averaged out. Future population is forecast by compounding the latest population using the above average geometric ratio. In another version of the method, only the latest geometric ratio is considered for forecasting future population. The method is depicted in Table 3

TABLE 3 :

POPULATION FORECAST BY GEOMETRIC RATIO METHOD Population Ratio

Past Population of a typical city Year Y 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 Population X 9,50,541 11,38,650 13,30,758 15,10,866 16,90,184 19,01,082

--11,38,650 / 9,50,541 13,30,758 / 11,38,650 15,10,866 / 13,30,758 16,90,184 / 15,10,866 19,01,082 / 16,90,184 = = = = = 1.198 1.169 1.135 1.119 1.125

Latest ratio = 1.125 Average ratio = 1.1492 a) Average Geometric Ratio Method Population (2001) Population (2011) b) = Population (1991) x average ratio = 19,01,082 x 1.1492 = 21,84,723 = 19,01,082 x (1.1492)2 = 25,10,684

Latest Geometric Ratio Method Population (2001) Population (2011) = Population (1991) x latest ratio = 19,01,082 x 1.125 = 21,38,717 = 19,01,082 x (1.125)2 = 24,06,057

2.4

Incremental Increase Method This is a modification over the Arithmetic Increase Method. After computing the arithmetic increments in consecutive decades, the increments in above consecutive increments are also recognised and considered. Thus population forecasts are prepared by considering the latest population as the starting point and adding to the same not only the average increment of decadal population but also the average increment in above increments. Table 4 depicts this method.

TABLE 4 :

POPULATION FORECAST BY INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD Arithmetic Increment / decade Incremental Increase / decade

Past Population of a typical city Year Y 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 Population X 9,50,541 11,38,650 13,30,758 15,10,866 16,90,184 19,01,082

--1,88,109 1,92,108 1,80,108 1,79,318 2,10,898 Average Increment = 1,90,108

+ +

----3,999 12,000 790 31,580

Average Incremental Increase = 5,697

Population (2001)

= = = = = =

Population (2011)

Population (1991) + Average Increment + Average incremental increase 19,01,082 + 1,90,108 + 5,697 20,96,887 Population (1991) + 2 (Average Increment) + Average incremental increase + 2 (Average incremental increase) 19,01,082 + 2 (1,90,108) + 5,697 + 2 (5,697) 22,98,389

.5

Logistic Method This method presupposes that the population trend will be S-Shaped which combines a geometric growth rate at low population with a declining growth rate as the city approaches limiting population. The logistic projection can be based on the equation : P = P sat 1 + e a+bt

where, P sat is the saturation population of the community, a and b are constants and t is the period beyond base year corresponding to Po. Psat, a and b can be determined from three consecutive census populations and using the following equation :
6

Psat

= 2 Po P1 P2 - P12 (Po + P2) PoP 2 - P12

Loge

Psat -P2 P2

) )

1 Loge
n

Po (Psat -P1) P1 (Psat-Po)

where n is the time interval between succeeding censuses. The method is illustrated in Table 5.

TABLE 5

: POPULATION FORECAST BY LOGISTIC METHOD Past Population data for a city Year Y 1971 1981 1991 Population X 1,13,302 1,65,205 2,35,661

Po = 1,13,302, P1 = 1,65,205, P2 = 2,35,661 for forecasting population in 2031, t = 2031 - 1971 = 60 years Psat = = = 2 PoP1P2 - P12 (Po + P2) PoP 2 - P12 2 x 1.133 x 1.652 x 2.357 - 1.6522 (1.133 + 2.357) 1.133 x 2.357 - 1.652 2 11.9676 lakh
7

Log e

( ( (

Psat -P2 P2

) )

= Log e = 1.4057

1.9676 2.3566 2.3566

1 Loge n 1 Loge 10

Po (Psat -P1) P1 (Psat-Po) 1.133 (11.9676 - 1.652) 1.6521 ( 11.9676 -1.133 )

= P2031

0.04263 = = = P sat 1+e .

a+b t

11.9676 . 1+ e 1.4057 0.04263 x 60 9.094 lakh

2.6

Ratio Method The ratio method of forecasting population relies on the population projections made by professional demographers for the state. The method is based on the assumption that the ratio of the population of the city being studied to that of the larger region will continue to change in future in the same manner that has occurred in the past. The ratio is calculated for a series of censuses, the trend line is projected into the future and the projected ratio is multiplied by the already projected state population to obtain the citys population in the year of interest. This method is demonstrated in Table 6. TABLE 6 : POPULATION FORECAST BY RATIO METHOD Past Population Data for a City Ratio of City Population to State Population

Past population data and population forecasts for a state Year 1951 Population 84,50,931

Year 1951
8

Population 8,30,000 0.0982

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

95,23,520 1,10,52,350 1,25,23,530 1,51,38,191 1,80,50,230 2,10,93,313

1961 1971 1981 1991

9,10,000 10,50,000 11,21,000 12,05,000

0.0956 0.0950 0.0895 0.0796 Trend 0.0717 Forecast 0.0643

Fig. 1 shows the graph of the Ratio of City population to State population against years. The trend is extended up to the year 2011. The ratios for 2001 and 2011 read from the trend are 0.076 and 0.068 respectively. The projected population for future years for the City are as follows : Population (2001) = = Population (2010) = = 0.0717 x 1,80,50,230 12,94,201 0.0643 x 2,10,93,313 13,56,300

2.7

Shift & Share Method This is similar to the ratio method described above. In this method, the overall population projections for the nation are available and past population data for the State, District and the City are available. The method is applied by considering the nation as a larger entity and the state as a smaller entity. The ratio trend of state to nation is extended and future population of the state is estimated by applying this trend to already forecast nation population for future. In the next step, the method is applied to the district as the smaller entity and state as the larger entity. This is again repeated for the city as the smaller entity and the district as a larger entity.

2.8

Graphical Trend Method In this method a graph is drawn of the past population of a city against the years and the same is extended by eye judgement. The future population is then read on this graph. Fig. 2 depicts this method.

2.9

Comparative Graphical Trend Method In this method, past population data of minimum two cities A and B similar in their character to the city C whose population needs to be forecast are selected. It is necessary for the cities A and B to have larger populations than that for C. This means that cities A & B have reached the present level of population in city C quite earlier in the past and have grown further to have populations larger than that in city C. This enables one to know the growth trends of cities A & B beyond the present population level of city C and it is then possible to identify an average trend for population growth for city C. Fig. 3 shows a graph of population growths in City A and City B. These cities had reached the 1991
9

population level of City C namely 2.36 Lakh in 1955 and 1958 respectively. In the graph, the growth curves for City A and City B beyond 1955 and 1958 have been shifted parallel to themselves, extended further up to year 2031 and attached at the 1991 end of City C growth curve. An average trend between the above trends has been interpolated and future populations have been read from this average trend as given in Table 7. TABLE 7 : POPULATION FORECAST BY COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL TREND FOR CITY C Year 2001 2011 2021 2031 2.10 Ward-wise Population Projections The design of water distribution systems/sewerage systems would require inputs in terms of projected ward-wise populations in the city. If past data of ward-wise population are available, the methods described above can be used in forecasting ward-wise future populations. 3.0 DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND GUIDELNES As mentioned earlier, the domestic water demand could be assessed based on guidelines given in the publications of CPHEEO or Indian Standards for minor schemes of relatively smaller magnitudes or at pre-feasibility stages of relatively major schemes. Table 8 gives the water requirements for domestic purposes as per I.S. 1172. It is seen that I.S. recommends 40 lpcd to 200 lpcd of domestic water needs based on the population in the service area. The recommendations of CPHEEO are given in Table 9 . However it appears that the lpcd rates given by CPHEEO cover domestic needs as well as non-domestic needs if the latter are reasonable and moderate. In the cases where the non-domestic needs are heavy, CPHEEO recommends additional water demand to be considered. TABLE 8 1) : WATER SUPPLY FOR RESIDENCES Projected Population (Lakh) 3.32 4.47 5.51 6.23

For communities with population up to 20 000 and without flushing system a) b) water supply through stand post water supply through service connection communities with house 40 lpcd ( Min ) 70 to 100 lpcd 100 to 150 lpcd

2)

For

population
10

20,000 to 100,000 together with full flushing system 3) For communities with population above 100 000 together with full flushing system 150 to 200 lpcd

NOTE - The values of water supply given as 150 to 200 litres per head per day may be reduced to 135 litres per head per day for houses for Lower Income Groups (LIG) and Economically Weaker Section of Society (EWS), depending upon prevailing conditions. Ref : Code of Basic Requirements for Water Supply, Drainage and Sanitation I.S. 1172 : 1993

11

TABLE

DOMESTIC AND NON-DOMESTIC USE

RECOMMENDED PER CAPITA WATER SUPPLY LEVELS FOR DESIGNING SCHEMES S.No. Classification of towns / cities Recommended Maximum Water Supply Levels (lpcd) 70

1.

Towns provided with piped water supply but without sewerage system Cities provided with piped water supply where sewerage system is existing/ contemplated Metropolitan and Mega cities provided with piped water supply where sewerage system is existing/ contemplated

2.

135

3.

150

Note : (i) (ii) In urban area, where water is provided through public standposts, 40 lpcd should be considered; Figures exclude Unaccounted for Water (UFW) which should be limited to 15%

Ref : Manual on Water Supply & Treatment, CPHEEO May, 1999

4.0

DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND SURVEY

12

Field Surveys for water demand assessment need to be carried out for large projects, especially where they are to be posed for loan assistance from financial institutions. Present domestic water consumption for a service area forms the basis for estimating the future water demand for the same. The present water consumption is estimated by conducting field studies on samples of population after classifying the same as per housing categories. It is necessary to select areas where the demand satisfaction is assessed to be very good. The sample size should be as large as possible. However, it may not be always possible to locate sufficiently large sample of a given housing category in a locality. Constraints in the form of non-working meters and time available at disposal, also operate. Following housing categories have been considered in the studies carried out in the past. (a) Bungalows with attached gardens/lawns (b) Bungalows without gardens / lawns (c) Traditional houses (d) Flats (e) Chawls (f) Slums Final selection of categories depends upon local conditions and may differ from city to city. Water supply projects for urban centres most of the times also cover adjoining smaller suburbs/groups of villages etc. The housing categories may have to be reduced, accordingly for these areas. A thorough knowledge of the type of housing in the project service area is necessary to identify the housing categories to be considered in the survey. The number of houses of each category to be surveyed depends upon the desired accuracy. In the past, as few as 50 houses of a category have yielded fairly accurate estimates of water demand for the same. If possible, the number should be on the larger side. In a typical case, about 350 houses of a category have been surveyed yielding excellent estimates of the water demand. In case of flats system, a cooperative society consisting of number of buildings housing several flats per building may be selected if available. The houses have to have working water meters otherwise the same can be replaced/installed. In the case of housing societies having similar category of houses/flats, a single meter for the whole society is adequate. A questionnaire is normally prepared and filled in by the investigator to record the number of persons staying in the house during the survey and the amount of water normally drawn by the household from any alternate source such as well etc. Consumer meter readings are taken initially and after a minimum period of a fortnight. This leads to the estimation of per capita per day consumption / demand for each household. A typical format for such a questionnaire is given in Annexure A. The above survey is repeated for other housing categories in the project service area. Specific statistical techniques need be used in drawing meaningful conclusions from
13

the water consumption data generated in the above domestic consumption field surveys. Following useful statistical techniques have been described below with the help of typical case studies. (a) (b) (c) Estimation of representative per capita domestic water consumption rates for various categories of housing. Justification of housing categories for classifying consumption data. Comparison between ledger data and field survey data.

4.1

Representative Consumption Rates Table 10 gives typical data obtained from water consumption survey of 213 houses. The aim is to identify representative consumption rates for various categories of houses as a pre-requisite for water demand forecasts. The measures of central tendency such as mean and medium would indicate the representative consumption rate for a given category. However we have to select between them for this purpose. This is accomplished by computing the Pearsonss first coefficient of skewness Jp for various frequency distributions representing the four categories. Jp is computed as given in Table 11 for the above typical data.

14

TABLE

10

TYPICAL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION FOR WATER CONSUMPTION DATA Number of Houses

Class Interval Lpcd 0-25 25-50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 150-175 175-200 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 fi

Bungalows With Gardens 0 0 0 0 6 4 5 6 7 13 3 5 3 3 3 0 58

Bungalows Without Gardens 0 0 0 3 5 5 6 3 2 2 1 2 4 2 3 0 38

Traditional House 0 0 6 7 19 15 9 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 73

Flats

0 0 0 9 5 8 4 4 2 4 4 1 3 0 0 0 44

Jp

Mean - Mode -------------------------Standard Deviation

TABLE 11

STATISTICAL PARAMETERS FOR VARIOUS HOUSING CATEGORIES Categories

Parameters

Bungalows With Gardens

15

Bungalows Without Gardens

Traditional Houses

Flats

Mean (lpcd) Median (lpcd) Mode (lpcd) Stand Deviation (lpcd) Pearsons first coefficient of skewness, Jp

225.4 226.9 235.4 71.4 -0.14

205.3 175.0 157.3 87.3 0.55

139.7 127.4 119.8 44.2 0.45

172.1 150.0 93.3 71.0 1.11

The distributions are not symmetrical. Their skewness is measured by the magnitude of the Pearsons first coefficient of skewness Jp. If Jp 1 then the distributions are moderately skewed and the mean represents the distribution. In case Jp 1 the skewness is not moderate and median will be the representative value for the distribution. It is therefore concluded that the consumption rates for bungalows with and without gardens and traditional houses can be taken to be the mean values of their distributions, while the same for flats can be taken as the median value of the distributions. Based on these conclusions, demand forecasts can be then prepared

16

4.2

Domestic Water Demand Projections The per capita representative water consumption rates for various housing categories as developed above can be used in consultation with population projections for estimating domestic water demand for specific areas in the service area. Where specific areas have a mix of housing categories, a weighted average per capita water consumption rate for all housing categories in the area can be worked out and used in the water demand projections. For improvements in living conditions, the water demand may be increased in future suitably (typical improvement could be 2.5 to 5% of domestic demand per decade). Seasonal variation could be accounted for if data are available. Urban centres, most of the times have surrounding rural areas which need to be considered in the service area. For surrounding villages, depending upon the living standards, the domestic water consumption would be a fraction of the urban rates and the same has to be assessed. Rates of 70 to 75 percent of that for urban rates have been adopted in typical cases for surrounding rural areas. During future demand projections, it is prudent to consider about 5% increase per decade in the water consumption due to improvement in living conditions of people.

5.0

NON-DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND This can be assessed based on water consumption data for various users based on I.S. / CPHEEO guidelines. For major projects, some of the data could be obtained by field measurements or by circulating questionnaires to various major consumers such as hotels, hospitals or other bulk consumers. Guidelines of I.S. 1172 are given in Tables 12 and 13 and the same from CPHEEO are given in Table 14. Typical questionnaires to collect data from major consumers are given in Annexures B and C.

6.0

GROSS WATER DEMAND Gross water demand for the project service area can be computed by adding the domestic and non-domestic water demand assessed using the above techniques and also considering the losses in the water treatment plants, transmission mains and the local distribution networks. Present leakage losses in the local distribution networks in most of the Indian Cities are very high. In a few typical cases 40% losses have been reported. In major metro cities, leakage monitoring operations and repairs to reduce leakages are in the on-going stage and future water demand projections should consider reduced leakages as a consequence of the above activities. In any case it would be almost impossible to have financially viable projects if the future leakages are not controlled by above measures. A typical future target could be 15% losses in the local distribution network which could be considered in projecting the gross water demand though, at times, the financial institutions might prefer 10%.

17

TABLE 12 Sl No. (1) i) ii) iii)

WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR BUILDINGS OTHER THAN RESIDENCES Type of Building (2) Consumption Per Day, litres (3) 45 per head 30 per head

Factories where bath rooms are required to be provided Factories where no bath rooms are required to be provided Hospital (including laundry) : a) Number of beds not exceeding 100 b) Number of beds exceeding 100

340 per head 450 per head * 135 per head 135 per head 180 per head * 45 per head 70 per seat 15 per seat 45 per head 135 per head

iv) v) vi) vii) viii) ix) x)

Nurses homes and medical quarters Hostels Hotel Offices Restaurants Cinemas, concert halls and theatres Schools : a) Day schools b) Boarding schools

Ref : Code of Basic Requirements for Water Supply Drainage And Sanitation I.S. 1172 : 1993 * Remarks : In a typical sample survey following rates were observed Hospitals (beds > 100) - 590 l/bed per day Major hotels ( 3 star to 5 star) - 820 l/bed per day Gardens - 80 kl / HA per day Swimming Pools - 5% of treatment plant capacity

TABLE 13 :

WATER SUPPLY FOR TRANSPORTATION CENTRES

18

Nature of Station

Where Bathing Facilities are Provided litres / capita

Where Bathing Facilities are not Provided litres / capita

a) Railways, bus stations and sea ports i) ii) Intermediate stations (excluding mail and express stops) Junction stations and intermediate Stations where mail or express stoppage is provided Terminal stations b) Airports International and domestic airports 70 70 45 70 45 25 45 45

iii)

NOTES : 1) The number of persons shall be determined by average number of passengers handled by the station daily; due consideration may be given to the staff and vendors likely to use facilities. Consideration should be given for seasonal average peak requirements. Code of Basic Requirements for Water Supply, Drainage and Sanitation I.S. 1172 : 1993.

2) Ref :

TABLE

14

INSTITUTIONAL NEEDS Litres per head per day

Institutions Hospital (including laundry)

19

(a) (b) Hotels Hostels

No. of beds exceeding 100 No. of beds not exceeding 100

450 (per bed) 340 (per bed) 180 (per bed) 135 135 135 70 (per seat) 70 70 45 45 (could be reduced to 25 where bathing facilities are not provided 45 45 45 (could be reduced to 30 where no bathing rooms are required to be provided). 15

Nurses homes and medical quarters Boarding schools / colleges Restaurants Air ports and sea ports Junction Stations and intermediate stations where mail or express stoppage (both railways and bus stations) is provided Terminal stations Intermediate stations (excluding mail and express stops) Day schools / colleges Offices Factories Cinema, concert halls and theatres

Ref : Manual on Water Supply & Treatment CPHEEO May, 1999

20

7.0

EFFECT OF PRICE ON WATER DEMAND Studies have been carried out by a number of researchers on the influence of price of water on the demand for water. However most of the research work has been carried out for foreign cities and the results are not relevant in the Indian context. In most of the Indian Water Supply Projects, after the water demand is assessed on 100% satisfaction basis, water still has to be allocated and the demand is only partially satisfied due to paucity of available water sources. One can image water demand to be affected by price considerations if the same is already satisfied to the extent of almost 100% and then the consumers accepting some what reduced levels due to price hike of tariff. However, when the consumer get only partial satisfaction of their demands, by having water supply for a few hours (2 to 3 hours) in a day, the price hike in tariff may not affect their consumption significantly or may affect the same only marginally. Researchers in the past have used the parameter Price Elasticity of demand for measuring the influence of price on demand. It is defined as the percentage change in quantity consumed associated with 1% change in price. Typical price elasticity magnitudes as evolved by various researches range between 0.21 to 0.62. In the Indian context, to make water supply projects financially viable, situations arise where the already low tariff may have to be hiked considerably say by 100 to 200%. If the above price elasticities are considered, then the water consumption rates would go down as shown in Table 15. TABLE 15 : INFLUENCE OF PRICE ELASTICITY ON DEMAND Tariff Hike 100% 200% 100% 200% Demand Reduction 21% 42% 62% 100%

Price Elasticity 0.21 0.62

It is seen from the Table that the demand reduction figures of 42% and 62% appear to be very high and the last figure of 100% is absurd. This is because the price elasticity figures mentioned above are not suitable for the range of tariff hikes of the order suitable for Indian conditions. The price elasticity of 0.21 and lower might be applicable under Indian conditions. However the same may have to be confirmed by research using data for Indian cities. A typical value such as 0.05 to 0.1 is suggested as an approximation estimate for use in the exercises of forecasting water demand under the influence of tariff hikes in future for projects.

ANNEXURE 21

SAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE FOR DOMESTIC DEMAND ASSESSMENT S.No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Item Name of the Consumer Address / Ward No. Plot Size / Flat Size Meter number Housing Category * Number of Storeys Number of rooms Number of persons residing Number of taps Meter working ? Water Supply arrangement Direct to O.H. tank To Sump at G.L and pumped to O.H. tank Any other (Describe arrangement) Additional source of water present ? (Describe Additional Source) Water consumption from past record of billing for one year, if available Survey observations : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : ________ x 1000 litres in _______ days Start Date Start reading End date End reading _____________ _____________ _____________ _____________

I / II / III / IV / V 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / multi-storeyed

Yes / No Yes / No Yes / No

12. 13. 14.

15. 16.

Water consumption from additional source if any (to be assessed) Level of satisfaction of consumer
22

: :

Total consumption ______________ litres very satisfactory (100%) / satisfactory

(to be assessed)

* Housing Category I - Bungalows with attached garden / lawn II - Bungalows without garden / lawn III - Traditional house IV - Flats V - Chawls

Conclusion Average lpcd rate ________

Name & Signature of Investigator

Date

23

ANNEXURE - B SAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE FOR HOTEL WATER DEMAND ASSESSMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Name of the Hotel Address Category Plot Area Rooms / Beds rooms beds If tubewell has been installed (a) No. of tubewells (b) Total quantity of water being drawn daily litres / day Air conditioning plant (a) Total Capacity (b) Running hours (c) Consumption of water Swimming Pool treatment Plant Capacity Water requirement for swimming pool per day Water consumption for Restaurants / Coffee Shop Water consumption of laundry water / day Consumption water for gardening / day Estimated Total Consumption of water / day Consumption assessed per year from past water bills Any other details : : : :

Star Sq.m. Future planning : At present 2005 2010

2015

7.

: : : : : : : : : : : Name & Signature of Investigator Date ANNEXURE - C

24

8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.

SAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE FOR HOSPITAL WATER DEMAND ASSESSMENT 1. 2. 3. Name of the Hospital Address Plot Area : : : : 4. 5. 6. Number of beds Total No. of staff Residential flats / quarters (a) No. of flats / quarters (b) No. of persons residing Air conditioning plant (a) Total capacity (b) Running hours / day (c) Consumption of water / day Water Coolers in Offices (a) Number If tubewell has been installed (a) No. of tubewells (b) Total quantity of water being drawn daily Capacity of underground tank Capacity of overhead tank Requirement of water for laundry / day Is canteen facility available ? if yes, water consumption requirement for canteen / day Any other details : Name & Signature of Investigator Date : : : : : : : : : : : : : :

Sq.m. Future planning At present 2005 2010

2015

7.

8. 9.

10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

ANNEXURE - D
25

LIST OF REFERENCES 1. Code of Basic Requirements for Water Supply, Drainage and Sanitation, I.S. 1172 : 1993 Manual on Water Supply & Treatment, CPHEEO, May 1999 Water Demand Assessment for Urban Projects, S.D. Chawathe, JIWWA VOL XXX, April June 1998 Theory and Problems of Statistics Murray R. Spigel, Mc Graw Hill Book Company, 1981

2.

3.

4.

5.

Manual on Water Demand Aeessment for Urban Water Supply Projects S. D. Chawathe Published by Goa Center, IWWA.

26

Fig 1: Population Projections By Ratio Me thod

0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04

R n i t a l u p o P

0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00

5 9 1

6 9 1

7 9 1

8 9 1

9 1

1 0 2

Year

Fig 2: Graphical Trend Method

8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00

) h k L ( n i t a l u p o P

2.00 1.00 0.00

5 9 1

6 9 1

7 9 1

8 9 1

9 1

1 0 2

Year

Fig 3: Comparative Graphical Trend M ethod

9 00

8 00

7 00

City A City C City B

6 00

5 00

4 00

3 00

) d s h T ( n i t a l u p o P

2 00

1 00

City C

9 1

2 9 1

3 9 1

4 9 1

5 9 1

5 9 1

8 5 9 1

6 9 1

7 9 1

8 9 1

9 1

5 9 1

8 9 1

1 0 2

1 0 2

1 0 2

1 0 2 1 3 0 2

Year 27

1 0 2