Super Bowl XLVI Economic Impact Study
Super Bowl XLVI Economic Impact Study
Super Bowl XLVI Economic Impact Study
July 2012
Indianapolis hosted Super Bowl XLVI on February 5, 2012. This report assesses the economic and fiscal impact of hosting the big game, including the ten days prior, as visitors experienced the Indianapolis metropolitan area.
Rockport Analytics
1610 Herron Lane West Chester, PA 19380 (610) 213-2558
July 2012
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INTRODUCTION
Research Challenge
With a game that came down to the last minutes in a city that embraced the heartbeat of the Super Bowl spirit for ten days, the reviews cheered the accomplishments of Indianapolis. Next, the deserved sense of pride shifts to the question of how did we do? This is a complicated question, one with many facets and nuances that include quantitative and qualitative elements. Perhaps the most obvious assessment is Super Bowl XLVIs contribution to the economy of the Indianapolis metro area its economic and fiscal impact. Rockport Analytics, LLC was retained to execute an economic impact study of Super Bowl XLVI. The study included activities associated with planning the event, game execution, and other important post-event efforts such as disassembling temporary structures. This study isolated spending sources that were: (1) Super Bowl-initiated, (2) local to the Indianapolis metro area, and (3) net new. From this accounting, Rockport employed established methods and models to calculate the games impact on the gross domestic product (GDP), jobs, wages, and tax receipts in Indianapolis.
Economic impact studies of events are oft-criticized for their tendency to overstate. In an effort to paint the most favorable picture, they include activity that was not initiated by the event or fail to net gross results for spending that would have taken place anyway. To address this issue, Rockport has been purposely conservative with this study. Super Bowl spending by residents was eliminated wherever possible; arguably these expenditures would have taken place without Super Bowl XLVI. Spending streams that immediately left Indianapolis were also subtracted. Examples include game ticket purchases or operational expenditures that went to businesses outside the area. Where identified spending streams lacked sufficient data, they were not included. Rockport also refrained from monetizing softer benefits such as the value of media exposure or the halo effect on future event bookings in the city. While these benefits are very real, they could not be tied specifically (and incrementally) to the game or their quantification methods were simply too subjective so they are not included. Finally, great care was taken to include an offset for normal displaced Indianapolis tourism activity for that time of year.
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Project Feasibility Assessment Primary Research and Secondary Research Synthesis Stakeholder Surveys internal & external
Acknowledgements
Rockport Analytics would like to thank the many organizations and individuals that contributed information, time, expertise, and advice to the effort. Without their spirit of cooperation, enthusiasm, and perseverance, this study would not have been possible. First and foremost are the members of the core project team from the Indianapolis Host Committee, Matt Carter from the Indianapolis Convention & Visitors Association (ICVA), and Chris Watts from Central Indiana Corporate Partnership. We would also like to recognize the assistance of a number of key contributors from the organizations that held the most important data elements for the project. Their cooperation and efforts were most appreciated. The Indianapolis Host Committee provided critical operational, infrastructure, media, and marketing data. Our thanks also to Frank Supovitz and Eric Kaden from the National Football League for key information and advice. Tim DeKime of NBC and Seth Markman of ESPN contributed much-needed broadcast information. Dan Huge of the Capital Improvement Board and James Wallis of the ICVA provided critical data and an expert sounding board. Jeffrey Spalding of the City of Indianapolis helped itemize municipal spending on the game. Chris Snyder of Woolpert provided data and advice concerning Indianapolis airport activity. Special thanks to Michael Alley and his team at the Indiana Department of Revenue for their efforts in identifying tax revenues associated with Super Bowl XLVI. Finally, we would also like to acknowledge Tara Green from the North Texas Super Bowl Host Committee and Winnie Stolper of the Arizona Super Bowl Host Committee. Their advice, information, and guidance were paramount.
Contact
For more information or specific questions, please contact:
John Dedman Vice President, Communications Indiana Sports Corporation 317-237-5016 [email protected]
Kenneth McGill Managing Director Rockport Analytics 610-213-2558 [email protected] Dianna Boyce Director of Communications 2012 Indianapolis Super Bowl Host Committee 317-937-0223 [email protected]
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Super Bowl XLVI was held in Indianapolis on February 5th, 2012. Related events surrounding the game began as early as January 27th. The New York Giants (21) won the game over the New England Patriots (17), but the real winner was arguably the Indianapolis metro economy. Over Super Bowl XLVI Bottom Line 116,000 non-residents Super Bowl Super Bowl Displaced poured in to Indianapolis to For the Indianapolis MSA: XLVI Net XLVI Gross Tourism enjoy the game and the Incremental in millions of $ unless otherwise noted Contribution Offset ancillary events. They spent Contribution money on area hotels, Total Gross Spending $384.1 ($46.9) $337.2 restaurants, retail stores, $342.1 ($46.9) Total Outside Spending $295.2 public and private Total Economic Impact: transportation, and Contribution to GDP $277.9 $323.8 ($45.8) Indianapolis many Direct Impact $151.7 $175.9 ($24.2) entertainment, historical and Indirect Impact $67.3 ($10.8) $56.5 cultural attractions. This Induced Impact $80.6 ($10.8) $69.8 does not include local 5,536 (847) Jobs Supported (# FTEs) 4,689 operational, broadcast, Contribution to Area Payrolls $176.3 $203.2 ($26.9) event, and promotional spending required to bring Total Tax Receipts $88.6 ($11.9) $76.7 the game to life. Federal $42.7 ($5.9) $36.8 This report summarizes the State $24.9 ($3.2) $21.7 economic and fiscal impacts Local $21.0 ($2.8) $18.2 of Super Bowl XLVI on the Value of Earned and Unearned $8.4 Indianapolis metropolitan Media Exposure area. Metrics such as total Source: Rockport Analytics, Vocus FTEs=Full Time Equivalents expenditures and resulting value-added (GDP), jobs, payrolls, and tax receipts are used to compile the benefits Indianapolis received for hosting Super Bowl XLVI. Highlights include:
Super Bowl XLVI gross expenditures reached $384 million. This represents spending that was net new to the Indianapolis MSA as a result of hosting the game and its ancillary events. Game attendees/visitors contributed 69% of that total, some $264 million. Event expenses added another $27 million (7%). Game and broadcast operations totaled $68 million, or nearly 18%. The remaining $25 million (7%) came from municipal, airport, and other infrastructure expenditures. Total spending originating from outside of the Indianapolis metro area was estimated at $342 million. This was calculated by reducing total gross spending by most of the operational, event, and promotional expenditures of local organizations such as the Indianapolis Host Committee, the City of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis Convention & Visitors Association, and Indianapolis regional airports. This measure accounts spending that was net new to Indianapolis but originated from outside of the region. An estimated 116,000 visitors came to Indianapolis because of Super Bowl XLVI. This included 68,500 game attendees as well as visitors without tickets, non-resident credentialed support staff, media personnel, and team members and support staff from the NFL, Giants and Patriots.
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Many Indianapolis residents also enjoyed the Super Bowl and its ancillary events and attractions. Over one million people were estimated to have visited the Super Bowl Village, many of them residents of the eleven-county metro area. Likewise with the NFL Experience, an estimated 265,000 visitors included out-of-towners and Indianapolis residents. Because of uncertainty about the resident/non-resident balance, the spending associated with these events was not included in the economic impact results. Indianapolis non-residents generated over 472,000 visitor-days in metro area. Overnight stays were estimated at 361,000, with an additional 111,000 day trips from origins outside of the region. With an average of approximately 1.61 visitors per room, Super Bowl XLVI produced over 224,000 room nights across the Indianapolis MSA. Indianapolis MSA hotel occupancy rates averaged about 93% for the four days leading up to and including the game, 99% for downtown hotels. With strong demand near capacity, reported average daily room rates (ADR) were $290 for that same period. Add in the days immediately leading up to this 4-day period and ADRs dropped only slightly, to average $280 per night. Typical ADRs for this time of year would register just below $100. Hotels had significantly increased revenue compared to the same time period in 2011. Game attendees and other non-resident visitors spent over $264 million locally during Super Bowl XLVI. That averages to nearly $571 per person, per day. By contrast, typical spending per diems for Indianapolis group and convention meeting visitors average about $221. Hotels and restaurants were the beneficiaries of about 43% of that total, registering $63 million and $51 million, respectively. Retail and shopping expenditures reached almost $64 million and ground transportation accounted for almost $44 million. Entertainment spending was also significant, totaling $26 million during the Super Bowl. The gross spending total economic impact of Super Bowl XLVI reached an estimated $324 million, measured in terms value-added or contribution to the Indianapolis Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This amount is essentially the total increase in metro area income created by the Super Bowl. This is comprised of $176 million in direct impact, $67 million in indirect (or supply chain) impact, and an additional $81 million in induced (or income) impact. With Indianapolis retaining $324 million of the $384 million in Super Bowl-initiated spending, about 84 of every dollar spent was retained in Indianapolis. The Super Bowl affected many sectors of the Indianapolis metro economy. Those businesses that interfaced with game attendees and visitors, including hoteliers, restaurants, retail vendors, entertainment venues, rental car companies, etc., or those directly involved in game/event facilitation, comprised the direct economic impact. For Super Bowl XLVI, the direct economic impact totaled $176 million. Super Bowl XLVI supported thousands of jobs during the planning phase, game execution, and postevent activities. The businesses that were directly involved in game/event operations or in serving game visitors supported an estimated 3,600 jobs. Supply chain businesses indirectly sustained another 850 full-
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time equivalents (FTEs) and the many businesses involved in serving induced spending contributed 1,100 more jobs. Super Bowl XLVIs total impact on Indianapolis employment was estimated at 5,500 FTEs.
Total payrolls for these 5,500 workers were estimated at almost $203 million. This includes $119 million for front-line businesses and another $84 million for indirect and induced jobs. This equates to an average annual salary of just over $36,900. The New York Giants won the game. From a fiscal perspective, Indianapolis was also a winner. Super Bowl XLVI-initiated tax receipts were substantial. Including federal, state, and local levies collected, Super Bowl XLVI generated nearly $89 million. About $43 million of that total was comprised of federal taxes. Federal taxes are comprised of income, social security, and other excises and fees. Indiana state and Indianapolis local receipts totaled $25 million and $21 million, respectively. These revenues were dominated by sales taxes, hotel, rental car, and food and beverage excises, and imputed property taxes. The Super Bowl displaced other tourism and events that would typically have occurred during that same time. For the ten-day period (January 27th-February 5th), the metro areas four-year average (2007-2011) was nearly $47 million in tourism spending. This would normally be associated with about $6 million in state and local taxes. The bottom line is that the decision to host Super Bowl XLVI brought an additional $40 million in taxes to Indiana and the local governments of the Indianapolis metro area. As mentioned previously, gross Super Bowl XLVI value-added reached $324 million. Subtracting a displaced tourism offset of $46 million yields a net incremental contribution to the Indianapolis metro GDP of $278 million. This compares favorably to past Super Bowl studies and an independent pregame estimate performed in 2008. A separate impact analysis was performed on outside expenditures only ($342 million). Total contribution to Indianapolis GDP reached $294 million, of which $161 million was direct. Outside monies supported a total of 5,100 FTEs, with 67% (3,400 FTEs) of those going to industries that directly touched Super Bowl visitors. Tax receipts initiated by external spending-only measured $39 million for federal and $44 million for Indiana state and Indianapolis local levies.
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Game Attendee/Visitor Events Game and Broadcast Operations and Promotion Other Total Super Bowl XLVIInitiated Spending
It should be noted that the spending measures above do not include certain items whose proceeds entirely accrued to entities outside of the Indianapolis MSA. The largest example is game ticket revenue. Operational, promotional, or event expenses that were paid to known businesses outside of the metro area were also eliminated. Finally, admissions and operational expenses associated with Super Bowl XLVI events such as the NFL Experience and Super Bowl Village were also eliminated from the numbers above due to their heavy attendance by Indianapolis residents. These forms of spending leakage were removed prior to considering Super Bowl XLVIs economic contribution to Indianapolis. Another important spending calculation was estimated to answer the question of just how much of total Super Bowl XLVI-initiated expenditures ($384 million) came from outside of Indianapolis. Essentially, all of the game attendee/visitor spending came from points beyond the city. The origin of operations, promotional, and event spending was mixed, however. Some originated with local entities such as the Indianapolis Host Committee, the City of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis Convention & Visitors Association, and Indianapolis regional airports. Still other execution expenditures came from outside the region from organizations such as NBC, ESPN, many of the corporate event sponsors, and the NFL itself. Rockport eliminated operations spending from Indianapolis local partners to
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arrive at an estimate of Total Outside Spending at $342 million. While the $32 million difference from Total Spending ($384 million) can be attributed to Super Bowl XLVI and is net new to the local economy, it originated from within Indianapolis. Total Outside Spending describes the amount of Super Bowl-initiated spending in Indianapolis that came from origins other than the metro area itself.
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1 2
Smith Travel Research, February 2012. D.K. Shifflet & Associates, ICVA, Rockport Analytics
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Entertainment spending was also significant, totaling $27 million. This includes everything from casinos and gaming to movie theaters, historical sites, museums, and bowling centers. It does not, however, include spending on ticketed events associated with Super Bowl XLVI. This spending was accounted through the operations numbers submitted by corporate event sponsors, the NFL, the ICVA, and other event promoters.
Category
Retail & Shopping Hotel Food & Beverage Rental Car & Commercial Vehicle Entertainment Other Ground Transportation Other e.g. travel arrangement,
laundry, other personal services
14,787 264,003
Rental Car & Commercial Vehicle Other Ground Entertainment Transpo 11% 10% 6%
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Typically, the economic contribution of any industry, event, facility, or policy is estimated by measuring its impact on local value-added (or GDP), employment, payrolls, and tax receipts. These universal measures describe how the event contributes to local living standards. For Super Bowl XLVI, spending resulted in a total gross contribution of over $324 million to Indianapolis Gross Domestic Product (GDP), sometimes referred to as gross metro product. This amount is essentially the total increase in metro area income created by the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl affected many sectors of the Indianapolis metro economy. Those businesses that interfaced with game attendees and visitors, including hoteliers, restaurants, retail vendors, entertainment venues, rental car companies, etc., or those directly involved in game/event facilitation, comprised the direct economic impact. For Super Bowl XLVI, the direct impact totaled $176 million. Indianapolis businesses that supplied material, supplies, labor, and services to those front-line organizations were also beneficiaries of Super Bowl XLVI. These supply chain businesses comprised the indirect economic impact. The indirect impact of Super Bowl XLVI reached $67 million. Finally, both direct and indirect businesses hire labor and pay wages. These workers, in turn, spend part of their wages on an array of consumer goods and services. This describes the induced economic impact. For Super Bowl XLVI, the induced component added another $81 million to the total contribution.
Direct
384,112 175,937 118,992 3,632 -
Indirect
(Supply Chain) $ $ $ 67,262 40,902 851 -
Induced
(Income) $ $ $ 80,576 43,325 1,053 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Total
384,112 323,775 203,219 5,536 88,619 42,716 24,873 21,030
Super Bowl XLVI supported thousands of jobs during the planning phase, game execution, and post-event activities. Some of these jobs were full-time, some part-time. All of these jobs were aggregated into a full-time equivalency (FTE) measure to provide an all-event total. The businesses that were directly involved in game/event operations or in serving game visitors supported an estimated 3,600 jobs. Supply chain businesses indirectly sustained another 850
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FTEs and the many firms involved in serving induced spending contributed 1,100 more jobs. Super Bowl XLVIs total impact on Indianapolis employment was estimated at 5,500 FTEs3. Payrolls for these 5,500 workers were estimated at almost $203 million. This includes $119 million for the front-line businesses and another $84 million for indirect and induced jobs. This equates to an average annual salary of just over $36,900. The fiscal impact of Super Bowl XLVI was substantial. Federal, state, and local taxes generated by the Super Bowl reached nearly $89 million. Indiana state government realized an estimated $25 million, primarily from sales taxes, while Indianapolis local governments shared an additional $21 million. The hotel tax alone was estimated to yield $4.8 million for Marion County and surrounding counties. Taxes will be covered in detail in a separate section of the report.
Not All Spending Was Retained in Indianapolis
Virtually all of the $384 million in Super Bowl-initiated spending went towards the purchase of materials, services, food supplies, payrolls, taxes, and margin all of the things required to serve visitors and host the game and ancillary activities. The key to measuring what Indianapolis truly gained by hosting Super Bowl XLVI begins with estimating how much of that spending was retained in the metro economy and account for the portion that leaks away to areas outside of the region. For example, when a visitor purchased a miniature Super Bowl XLVI replica helmet during their trip, much of the value leaked to areas outside of Indianapolis. The total price of the collectable novelty included portions for the value of the materials, assembly, distribution, marketing, and logo. Most of these value components were paid to organizations outside of Indianapolis. In fact, for most retail transactions, only the labor, store facility (if applicable), and margin are retained in the local area. Beyond retail, other sectors also see part of their revenue leak away when supply chain sources either do not exist or lack sufficient scale to satisfy all of the demand.
3
Job counts are derived using the IMPLAN model of the Indianapolis MSA economy. Historical relationships between local spending, employment, and wages by Indianapolis sector are utilized to derive the jobs required to support estimated industry expenditures.
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The economic model employed in the analysis, IMPLAN, provides a comprehensive estimation of what was retained in the Indianapolis MSA. It considers retail (and wholesale) margins, as well as established inter-industry buying/selling relationships and the current scale of each impacted sector in the local economy. In short, it estimates the valueadded or full economic impact of the original Super Bowl-initiated spending injection. The results suggest that Indianapolis retained about $324 million of the $384 million in Super Bowl-initiated spending. With only $60 million in leakages, about 84 of every dollar spent was retained in Indianapolis.
Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Outside Origin Super Bowl XLVI-Initiated Spending
A second view of Super Bowl XLVI-initiated spending subtracts the operational, promotional, and event spending that originated from within Indianapolis. The purpose is to focus on only those monies that have come from origins outside the metropolitan area. Super Bowl XLVI-initiated outside expenditures were then run through the same IMPLAN model of the Indianapolis MSA economy to translate their contribution to local GDP, jobs, wages, and tax receipts. The table below summarizes the outside spending impacts, totaling $342 million, on the Indianapolis MSA economy. The direct contribution to value-added, wages, and jobs are bolded in the second column. Direct value-added totals $161 million considering only outside spending, while all net new Super Bowl XLVI-initiated spending made a $176 million contribution to Indianapolis GDP. Total direct jobs supported from outside monies totaled nearly 3,400, with corresponding wages reaching $107 million. Tax receipts from outside expenditures totaled $83 million, with $39 million going to federal authorities and $44 million accruing to state of Indiana and local Indianapolis government entities.
Direct
Indirect
(Supply Chain)
Induced
(Income)
Total
$ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
Final Iteration: Economic Impact of Super Bowl XLVI Game Attendee/Visitor-Only Spending
One final economic impact iteration has been performed to answer the tourism-oriented question of what Super Bowl XLVI non-resident game attendee and other visitors contributed to the Indianapolis economy. This essentially takes the Total Outside Spending view above and eliminates the expenditures associated with game, broadcast, and event operations. It is a specific view of what Super Bowl XLVI-initiated tourists contributed to Indianapolis. The game attendee/visitor economic and fiscal impact iteration begins with the $264 million in spending referenced on page 14. It includes those who attended the game, visitors without tickets who came to enjoy the ancillary events, team personnel, and other non-residents. Their spending on hotel, food and beverage, shopping, transportation, and
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other categories were passed through the same economic impact process to arrive at the full economic and fiscal impact calculation. Game Attendee/Visitor-initiated Super Bowl XLVI spending resulted in a $218 million total contribution to Indianapolis GDP, $122 million of which was direct. Non-resident visitation spending supported over 4,000 jobs (FTEs) which earned an estimated $129 million in wages. Taxes initiated by game attendees and other visitors totaled $69 million, of which $22 million accrued to Indiana and $18 million was split among the local government entities within the Indianapolis MSA.
Direct
Indirect
(Supply Chain)
Induced
(Income)
Total
$ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
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Super Bowl XLVI Valued Added (GDP) by Indianapolis Sector Top Ten Direct Beneficiaries
in thousands of $$
Industry Category (NAICS) Total Hotel, Restaurant, and Catering Administrative Services Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Retail Trade Real Estate and Rental Management of Companies Transportation & Warehousing Other Services Information Professional and Business Svcs Other Indianapolis Sectors
Direct $175,937 $61,818 $22,581 $19,697 $14,884 $12,718 $10,473 $10,263 $6,058 $6,015 $4,646 $6,785
Indirect $67,262 $2,090 $7,509 $2,306 $803 $12,165 $2,196 $2,994 $2,875 $5,718 $10,665 $17,857
Induced $80,576 $3,425 $2,231 $1,354 $11,039 $20,428 $423 $1,845 $3,245 $2,434 $3,469 $17,331
Total $323,775 $67,333 $32,321 $23,357 $26,726 $45,311 $13,092 $15,103 $12,178 $14,167 $18,780 $41,973
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4 Job counts are derived using the IMPLAN model of the Indianapolis MSA economy. Historical relationships between local spending, employment, and wages by Indianapolis sector are utilized to derive required jobs from industry expenditures.
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Direct
3,632 1,518 427 406 366 325 136 110 92 81 75 95
Indirect
851 72 50 18 185 42 95 47 53 132 15 134
Induced
1,053 119 26 240 54 25 76 97 17 43 3 129
Total
5,536 1,709 503 665 605 392 308 254 163 257 93 358
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Total Hotel, Rest & Catering Administrative Services Arts, Ent & Recreation Retail Trade Management of Companies Information Distribution Real Estate & Rental Construction Prof & Business Svcs Other Indianapolis Sectors
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ 11,403
$ 22,736
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Hotel tax receipts benefited from 99% downtown occupancy (93% elsewhere in the MSA) and elevated room rates during the Super Bowl to total $4.8 million. Rental car and food and beverage excises were also up substantially tallying $1.1 million and $863,000, respectively. In contrast, average weekly tourism spending in the Indianapolis MSA would bring in about $780,000, $311,000, and $68,000 for hotel, food and beverage, and rental car taxes, respectively. The New York Giants may have won the game, but from a fiscal perspective, Indianapolis and Indiana were also winners. The bottom section of the table at left derives a net incremental state and local tax amount initiated by Super Bowl XLVI.
$88,619
$39,912
The Super Bowl displaced other tourism and events that would typically have occurred during that same period. This is discussed in detail in a later section of this report. An estimate of this displaced tourism was generated by looking back at the average level of tourism activity in the Indianapolis MSA from 2007-2011 for the same ten-day period. The metro area averaged about $47 million in tourism spending over that five-year period. This would normally be associated with about $6 million in state and local taxes. Subtracting that amount from the gross calculations at the top of the table provides
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the net incremental state and local taxes. The bottom line reflects that the decision to host Super Bowl XLVI brought an additional $40 million in taxes to Indiana and the local governments of the Indianapolis metro area. To add perspective, consider that local taxes for all tourism activity in the Indianapolis MSA during 2010 totaled $271 million5. Super Bowl XLVIs local tax contribution equated to almost 8% of that entire year. For the County Innkeepers levy alone, Super Bowl XLVIs contribution amounted to more than 12% of total 2010 hotel tax collections. Moreover, Super Bowl XLVIs state tax contribution was equal to about 8% of all tourism-initiated state collections in 2010.
Capital spending and community outreach is also part of the Super Bowl XLVI story. Community outreach programs have a lasting impact on local residents and businesses. Capital projects provide benefit streams that last far beyond the Super Bowl. Some capital projects can be uniquely attributed to hosting the game, while others may have been investments that were accelerated or enhanced because of Super Bowl XLVI. Some noteworthy examples include: The City of Indianapolis investment in the rehabilitation of Georgia Street Paving and refurbishment of curbs and sidewalks Security cameras installed by the City of Indianapolis Human impact of Indys Super Cure Community programs that touched 200,000 students across Indiana The impact of the Chase Near Eastside Legacy Center More than 400 new and refurbished homes on the Near Eastside Indianapolis International Airport (IND) and other regional airport improvements
While tangible and significant, because these benefits can be difficult to (a) uniquely attribute to the Super Bowl and/or (b) monetize, they have been removed from the economic impact accounting. Media Exposure
Super Bowl XLVI was watched by a record U.S. audience of 166.8 million viewers, making it the most watched television event in history. Seventy one percent of all U.S. televisions that were turned on were tuned in to the game.
5
2010 Economic Impact of Tourism in Indianapolis, ICVA & Vantage Strategy, September 2011.
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Positive exposure also included paid advertising, newspaper and magazine articles, as well as other print, broadcast, and online media. While the game was the centerpiece of this coverage, Indianapolis received its share of exposure. Economic impact studies of large events often include monetized estimates of the value of this earned and unearned media. The principal beneficiaries of this secondary exposure include future tourism business and general economic development, though the value of all of the direct and indirect media coverage is difficult to quantify.
Rockport chose to bypass this challenge by including its value below-the-line. That is, the value of media exposure is monetized and reported but not included in the assessment of economic impact. Moreover, the estimates used Source: Vocus were from a third party subject matter expert, Vocus, who has a respected track record in this area. Total advertising equivalency of captured media mentions totaled $8.4 million, of which $5.9 million was print, $2.3 million online, and the remainder estimated as broadcast. Perhaps just as critical as the size and value of the Indianapolis media exposure is the direction of the coverage. Articles covering Super Bowl XLVI and its ancillary events, as well as the visitor experience in Indianapolis are only helpful if they are positive. Once again, a third-party expert was used. Vocus uses an established methodology to score each media item as positive, negative, or neutral. Vocus found that of nearly 2,100 Indianapolis media exposures, 99.9% were positive. In fact, only three were scored as neutral. There were no negative mentions.
Future Meeting and Event Halo Effect
The theoretical benefit would be comprised of measure of the return on investment of the advertising, a variable that is difficult to capture. Instead, analysts use a more conservative approach based upon advertising equivalency estimating the value of each placement on what it would have cost in paid advertising to purchase that exposure. This estimation process is easier for some media versus others. Actual examples of paid print or online advertisements are the easiest. Newspaper articles or editorials are more of a challenge.
Yet another non-quantified benefit of Super Bowl XLVI is its halo effect on future Indianapolis meeting and convention bookings. Hosting the Super Bowl provides a boost in the awareness and cachet of Indianapolis as a destination for all kinds of meetings and events. Moreover, with overwhelmingly positive media exposure, meeting planners in corporate, associations, and government will see Indianapolis as a more desirable destination for their next meeting. The ICVA, Indianapolis official marketing arm for meetings and conventions, reports a remarkable lift in the number of qualified leads as far out as 2015. ICVA measures leads based upon the expected number of future room nights that would be brought to Indianapolis by the prospect meeting or event. This provides a basis for forward planning, as well as benchmark for their incentive program for ICVA sales professionals. The ICVA has reported a 156% increase in lead room-nights in the first quarter of 2012 versus year-earlier levels. Most of this increase is attributable to the halo effect that Super Bowl XLVI has had on Indianapolis meeting and convention sales efforts. The table below contains two scenarios, a low and high, that seek to monetize and put into perspective what this lift could mean to the city.
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In the low scenario, only 75% of the increased lead room-nights are assumed to be attributed to the Super Bowl. Arguing also that the rise in leads includes some of lower quality, a 20% lead conversion rate is assumed. Note that the industry wide average is 25% and the ICVA has achieved a 38% conversion rate in 2012. In the high scenario, 90% of the new leads are attributed to Super Bowl XLVI and a lead conversion rate just below current performance was assumed. The ICVA/CIB economic impact calculator was then used on all 2011meetings to determine that the average economic impact per actual room-night was $881.
Super Bowl XLVI-Initiated Meeting and Convention Booking and Economic Impact Lift
Super Bowl XLVI Meeting and Convention Impact Lift Estimates
2012Q1 Increased Lead Room-nights @ +156% Assumed Lead Conversion Percentage Average Economic Impact per Room-Night
The resulting range of future Super Bowl XLVI meeting and convention impact lift is from $82 million to $170 million. Super Bowl XLVI will go beyond simply enhancing the awareness of Indianapolis and its meeting and convention product offering. Many of these new leads will be converted into future business for Indianapolis. Moreover, this analysis is based upon only one quarters worth of leads. Super Bowl XLVIs positive halo effect will likely continue.
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An event as far-reaching as the Super Bowl consumes virtually every area hotel room, packs restaurants, and pushes airports, ground transportation, and parking lots to near capacity. Dramatic increases in business traffic occur almost everywhere. This is great news for most everyone, although normal Indianapolis tourism activity was almost entirely displaced by Super Bowl XLVI. Unrelated leisure and business trips that would typically occur during the Super Bowl had to be rescheduled, some perhaps canceled. Likewise, other scheduled events and meetings were either moved to another date or another city. Proper calculation of the economic contribution of an event to a city, particularly one as far-reaching as the Super Bowl, must include an offset for the tourism activity that was displaced. Total non-resident Super Bowl XLVI spending in the Indianapolis MSA was estimated at $384 million. To isolate the Super Bowls incremental contribution, this value must be net of tourism that would have routinely taken place during that time of year. All tourism expenditures in the Indianapolis MSA totaled about $3.6 billion during 20106, an average of about $68 million per week. This spending was the product of over 20 million leisure, business transient, and group visits7 to the area. Super Bowl XLVI was held during what would normally be in the middle of the slower winter season for tourism. Consider: For 2007-2011 average room nights totaled almost 74,000 for the comparable period of Super Bowl XLVI. At an average daily room rate of $99.50 over the same period, this equated to nearly $7.4 million in room revenue8. Moreover, this number includes only about 80-85% of all Indianapolis MSA hotels. Other ancillary trip spending for an array of categories including food and beverage, ground transportation, entertainment, and shopping would add another approximately $38 million during a typical mid-winter tourism week.
2010 Economic Impact of Tourism in Indianapolis, ICVA & Vantage Strategy, September 2011. D.K. Shifflet & Associates Person-Trips: a visitor is someone who either stays overnight or travels at least 50 miles one-way 8 Smith Travel Research, March 2012.
6 7
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Based upon past tourism research in the Indianapolis market and the hotel revenue figures mentioned above, Rockport Analytics estimates a tourism displacement of almost $47 million in spending during Super Bowl XLVI. This is comprised of the categories shown in the pie chart above. Against typical tourism activity for that period, Super Bowl XLVI represented an eight-fold increase in spending.
Calculating the Economic Impact Offset
The economic impact of displaced tourism in Indianapolis during the Super Bowl was calculated in a manner similar to Super Bowl XLVI itself. That is, the average (2007-2011) expenditure estimates for the comparable period were entered into the IMPLAN model of the Indianapolis MSA economy. This model considers the inter-industry linkages within the Indianapolis metro area economy and the trade relationships with regions outside the metro area. The resulting solution provides estimates of the level of value-added (GDP), wages, jobs, and tax receipts that would typically have accrued during the last week of January/first week of February. The results are summarized below.
Direct
$ 46,891,000 24,226,000 14,395,000 576 $ $
Indirect
10,781,000 6,436,000 125 $ $
Induced
10,836,000 6,046,000 146 -
Total
$ 46,891,000 $ 5,844,000 $ 6,877,000 847 $11,927,000
The direct column represents the displaced benefits to Indianapolis businesses that typically impact visitors (i.e. hotels, restaurants, entertainment venues, etc.). The indirect and induced columns itemize the impacts of those displaced visitor purchases, where indirect represents the supply chain impact and induced addresses the impact of lost wages. These values are subtracted from their corresponding gross Super Bowl XLVI economic impact category to arrive at a net incremental contribution estimate for the Indianapolis MSA.
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THE BOTTOM LINE: SUPER BOWL XLVIS NET ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT TO INDIANAPOLIS
In a ten-day period, Super Bowl XLVI was able to generate about 10% of an entire years worth of tourism activity for the Indianapolis MSA. The wave of game attendees, media representatives, corporate event planners, team personnel, officials, and other visitors boosted travel-related infrastructure around the metro area to near capacity. The Super Bowl also brought an accompanying set of events and activities. The resulting expenditures of non-residents, and the events they enjoyed, created a huge economic and fiscal windfall for the region. The objective of this research has been to measure and describe that windfall. The study detailed the extent to which Super Bowl XLVI contributed to spending, value-added (GDP), jobs, and taxes around the metro area. In an effort to provide defensible estimates of all impact metrics, the approach has been purposely conservative. Where identified spending streams lacked sufficient data, they were not included. Moreover, softer benefits such as the value of media exposure, capital expenditures, or the halo effect on future event bookings in the city were not monetized. While arguably very real, connecting them specifically (and incrementally) to the game or the quantification methods were too controversial. To arrive at a bottom line for Super Bowl XLVI, the gross economic and fiscal impacts were netted for typical Indianapolis tourism activity displaced by the signature event. The table below provides a summary of spending, impacts, and tax receipts. Gross Super Bowl XLVI spending of $384 million was netted for an estimated offset of $47 million to arrive at total net incremental spending of $326 million. The line-item Total Outside Spending refers to an Super Bowl aggregation of detailed Super Bowl Displaced For the Indianapolis MSA: XLVI Net spending that eliminates XLVI Gross Tourism Incremental those items that were in millions of $ unless otherwise noted Contribution Offset Contribution clearly funded by local Total Gross Spending $384.1 ($46.9) $337.2 Indianapolis businesses or $342.1 ($46.9) Total Outside Spending $295.2 governments. For example, most of the Total Economic Impact: Contribution to GDP $277.9 operational, event, and $323.8 ($45.8) promotional expenditures Direct Impact $151.7 $175.9 ($24.2) from local organizations $67.3 ($10.8) Indirect Impact $56.5 such as the Indianapolis $80.6 ($10.8) Induced Impact $69.8 Host Committee, the City 5,536 (847) Jobs Supported (# FTEs) 4,689 of Indianapolis, the Contribution to Area Payrolls $176.3 Indianapolis Convention & $203.2 ($26.9) Visitors Association, and Total Tax Receipts $76.7 the Indianapolis regional $88.6 ($11.9) Federal $36.8 airports were funded $42.7 ($5.9) State $24.9 ($3.2) $21.7 locally. Reducing total Local $21.0 ($2.8) $18.2 Super Bowl XLVI-initiated spending by locally $8.4 Value of Earned & Unearned Media $8.4 funded spending, the Source: Rockport Analytics, Vocus FTEs=Full Time Equivalents outside expenditure totals $342 million. This represents new monies that came to the Indianapolis economy as a result of hosting the game.
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Gross Super Bowl XLVI value-added reached $324 million. Subtracting a displaced tourism offset of $46 million yields a net incremental contribution to Indianapolis metro GDP of $278 million. This particular metric is often generalized as economic impact. This $278 million compares favorably to past Super Bowl studies and an independent pre-game estimate performed in 20089. Super Bowl XLVI-supported jobs must also be offset for displaced tourism. The gross total of 5,500 jobs was reduced by 850 to register a net total of 4,700. Finally, gross Super Bowl-initiated payrolls were reduced by almost $27 million to arrive at a net increment of $176 million. This results in an average annual wage of $37,600. Finally, the gross fiscal impacts of Super Bowl XLVI were likewise reduced by an amount that represents displaced tourism taxes to arrive at a net incremental value. For total taxes, the offset amounted to $12 million. This reduced total gross Super Bowl XLVI-initiated tax receipts from $89 million to $77 million. The state and local tax offset totaled about $6 million. The resulting net incremental state and local tax contribution of Super Bowl XLVI reached almost $40 million. The Bottom Line table also includes the value of earned and unearned media surrounding Super Bowl XLVI, primarily as an informational, below-the-line item. Advertising and editorial coverage in print, broadcast, and online media is most certainly a benefit to businesses, citizens, and government institutions in the area. Putting a dollar value on that amount can be difficult, even controversial. Rockport Analytics has included the media value summary provided by Vocus in the impact summary, but it was not folded in to the calculations listed above. This $8.4 million advertising equivalency is a very real benefit to Indianapolis, one that can pay huge dividends in future tourism and economic development. From an economic and fiscal standpoint, hosting Super Bowl XLVI was a huge success for Indianapolis. Having executed many studies of this kind over the years, rarely has Rockport Analytics see an event generate $384 million in spending, $324 million in GDP, and $46 million in state and local taxes in the span of ten days. Only the Olympic Games come to mind. These figures represent a conservative estimate that was corrected for double counting, resident contribution, and spending leakages. Moreover, many of the softer benefits to the community, though very real, were not considered at all. Super Bowl XLVI-initiated expenditures and tax receipts amounted to about eight times the normal ten-day level of Indianapolis tourism business for that same time of year. Indianapolis had the right combination of infrastructure, logistics, hospitality expertise, organizational skills, and implementation talent to make these outsized benefits possible.
The Economic Impact of the Super Bowl in Indianapolis, Michael J. Hicks, Bureau of Business Research, Ball State University, March 2008. The range of estimated Super Bowl economic impacts from 1989-2008, adjusted for inflation, was $176 to $463 million. The mean was $322 million.
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2012 Indianapolis Super Bowl Host Committee hosted events, operational budget line items, construction activity, staffing levels, etc. Capital Improvement Board Lucas Oil Stadium and Indiana Convention Center expenses, specific tax analysis of key local tourism-oriented levies City of Indianapolis, Office of Finance and Management municipal expenditures on game and event operations D.K. Shifflet & Associates10 historical Indianapolis MSA tourism expenditures and visitor per diem spending ESPN, NBC, DirectTV hosted events, broadcast operations expenditures, travel and entertainment (T&E) Indiana Department of Revenue special analysis of taxes collected during the Super Bowl Indianapolis Airport Authority airport arrivals, fuel spending, hosted events, capital improvements Indianapolis Convention & Visitors Association hosted events, general tourism activity measures, and displaced tourism offset development Minnesota Implan Group11 the IMPLAN economic model of the Indianapolis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) NFL hosted events, game operations, broadcast and promotional expenditures, T&E expenditures North Texas Super Bowl (XLV) Host Committee previous Super Bowl expenditures, visitor intercept survey results, critical advice Smith Travel Research (STR) Global Hotel Performance12 critical measures of Indianapolis hotel demand, room rates, occupancy, and capacity U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Indianapolis MSA and Indiana employment and payroll data U.S. Department of Commerce Consumer Price Index and its components Vocus13 earned and unearned media accounting, advertising equivalency calculations
Once all sources of new Super Bowl XLVI-initiated spending were collected, vetted, and reconciled, our first task was
www.dksa.com www.implan.com 12 Smith Travel Research, www.str.com 13 www.vocus.com
10 11
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to eliminate any double counting and carefully clear the data of resident spending. Secondly, all of the spending categories were mapped to the North American Industry Classification (NAICS) codes to facilitate entry into the IMPLAN economic model of the Indianapolis MSA. Finally, the model was simulated to estimate the contribution of Super Bowl XLVI to the Indianapolis economy. The last step was to calculate tax receipts using a combination of IMPLAN-estimated income, excise, and property taxes with transaction-based taxes for sales, hotel, rental car, food and beverage, and amusement levies. To assist in a full understanding of the concepts and terms used in this study, please refer to the glossary of terms and definitions in Appendix B.
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Contribution to GDP or Value-Added Total Spending net of any leakages outside the Indianapolis MSA. Concept is comparable to Gross Domestic Product Day Trips visitors who did not stay overnight and traveled more than 50 miles one-way on behalf of Super Bowl XLVI Direct Impact the impact of Super Bowl XLVI expenditures on businesses that either directly serve visitors or are involved in game and event execution. Examples would include hotels and restaurants, as well as stadium operational expenditures or ancillary event catering expenses. Employment or Jobs the number of jobs supported by Super Bowl XLVI in the Indianapolis MSA. Jobs are expressed in full-time equivalency (FTE) terms. Full-time equivalent employment is the number of full-time equivalent jobs, defined as total hours worked divided by average annual hours worked in full-time jobs. FTE is a job measure that combines full- and part-time jobs and facilitates comparisons with other events or with total tourism activity. Income and Property Tax Receipts these are taxes that are collected against the income generated by Super Bowl XLVI-initiated wages and the use of public and private structures to accommodate the game, the events, and its many visitors. Both taxes are estimated by the IMPLAN model. Income taxes are applied against calculated payrolls at current rates. Property taxes are prorated from annual assessments and vary by industry. Indirect Impact the downstream impact of Super Bowl XLVI-initiated expenditures in the Indianapolis MSA on the supply chain businesses. Examples would include cleaning supply distributors for hotels or legal service providers for other Direct businesses. Induced Impact the downstream spending that results from wage income paid to Direct and Indirect businesses labor. An example would be the consumer expenditures resulting from the wages paid to a hotel worker. Overnight Visitors those visitors who stayed overnight in a hotel or other lodging alternative, including the homes of resident friends or family Payrolls or Wages the total value of paid wages and proprietors income initiated by Super Bowl XLVI in the Indianapolis MSA. Room Night one hotel room occupied by any size travel party for one night Total Spending the accumulation of all net new spending in the Indianapolis-Carmel Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) that was initiated by Super Bowl XLVI. Total Spending is net of any resident expenditures at the game or its ancillary events on the assumption that these monies would have been spent locally anyway. Total Outside Spending Total Spending net of any identified operating, promotion, or event expenditures that have been ultimately funded by local Indianapolis area businesses, residents, or governments. Transaction-based Tax Receipts tax receipts that are derived from the purchase of goods and services. These include sales taxes, as well as the County Innkeepers, rental car, admissions, and supplemental food and beverage taxes. Transaction taxes have been derived in this study by applying appropriate tax rates to measured purchases. Visitor anyone who came to Indianapolis on behalf of Super Bowl XLVI that either stayed overnight or traveled more than 50 miles one-way. Also referred to as a non-resident.
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Indianapolis - the geographic focus of this study is the Indianapolis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The U.S. Office of Management and Budget defines this as a eleven-county area that includes Boone, Brown, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, Johnson, Madison, Marion, Morgan, Putnam, and Shelby counties. Unless otherwise noted, references to Indianapolis or the Indianapolis metro area in this report refer to this definition. Gross Spending and Economic Impacts this refers to Super Bowl XLVI-initiated expenditures and resulting economic impacts on the Indianapolis MSA before consideration of any tourism that was displaced by the event. Net Spending and Economic Impacts Gross spending and impacts adjusted for estimates of displaced tourism activity that would normally have taken place during the period of Super Bowl XLVI.
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