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Solution 1. P (B - S)

This document solves a multi-step probability problem using Bayes' rule and the total probability theorem. It calculates the probabilities of various events occurring given other events. Specifically, it calculates P(B|~S), P(B|C), P(A|C), and ultimately P(C|A), which is the probability of event C given event A, through a series of probability equations and reasoning steps.

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Davy Sorn
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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24 views

Solution 1. P (B - S)

This document solves a multi-step probability problem using Bayes' rule and the total probability theorem. It calculates the probabilities of various events occurring given other events. Specifically, it calculates P(B|~S), P(B|C), P(A|C), and ultimately P(C|A), which is the probability of event C given event A, through a series of probability equations and reasoning steps.

Uploaded by

Davy Sorn
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Solution

1. P(B|~S)
P(B|~S) =
=
=
=
=

P(B,C|~S) + P(B,~C|~S)
P(B|C,~S)P(C|~S) + P(B|~C,~S)P(~C|~S)
(0.2 x 0.8) + (0.01 x 0.2)
0.16 + 0.002
0.162

2. P(B|C)
P(B|C) =
=
=
=
=

P(B,S|C) + P(B,~S|C)
P(B|S,C)P(S|C) + P(B|~S,C)P(~S|C)
(0.9 x 0.02) + (0.2 x 0.98)
0.018 + 0.196
0.214

3. P(A|C)
P(A|C) =
=
=
=

P(B|C)P(A|B,C) + P(~B|C)P(A|~B,C)
(0.214 x 0.7) + (0.786 x 0.1)
0.1498 + 0.0786
0.2284

4. P(C|A)
P(C|A) = P(A|C)P(C)
P(A)
= 0.228 x 0.8
P(A)
Find P(A),
P(~B|A) + P(B|A) = 1
P(~B|A) = P(A|~B)P(~B)
P(A)
P(B|A) = P(A|B)P(B)
P(A)
P(A) = P(A|~B)P(~B) + P(A|B)P(B)
= (0.1 x ???) + (0.7 x ???)
Find P(B),
P(~S|B) + P(S|B) = 1
P(~S|B) = P(B|~S)P(~S)
P(B)
P(S|B) = P(B|S)P(S)
P(B)
P(B) = P(B|~S)P(~S) + P(B|S)P(S)
= (0.162 x 0.98) + (??? x 0.02)

Find P(B|S),
P(B|S) =
=
=
=
=

P(B,C|S) + P(B,~C|S)
P(B|C,S)P(C|S) + P(B|~C,S)P(~C|S)
(0.9 x 0.8) + (0.9 x 0.2)
0.72 + 0.18
0.9

P(B) = (0.162 x 0.98) + (0.9 x 0.02)


= 0.159 + 0.018
= 0.177
P(A) = (0.1 x 0.823) + (0.7 x 0.177)
= 0.0823 + 0.1239
= 0.2062
P(C|A) = 0.228 x 0.8
0.2062
= 0.8846

Bayes rule
P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)
P(B)
Total probability
P(X|Y) = P(Z|Y)P(X|Z,Y) + P(~Z|Y)P(X|~Z,Y)
Chain rule
P(E|K) = P(E,A|K) + P(E,~A|K)
P(X,Y|H) = P(X|Y,H)P(Y|H)
Properties
P(A) + P(~A) = 1
P(A|B) + P(~A|B) = 1

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