HKS211x: Central Challenges of American National Security, Strategy, and the Press Graham Allison, David E.

Sanger, and Derek Reveron

Practice Case: Syria

The world is as it was on September 11, 2013, except for hypotheticals that are specifically introduced in this case. If there are material changes between September 11 and September 20, you are not required to take those into accountthough you may choose to do so. You are writing as a trusted assistant to Susan Rice, President Obamas National Security Advisor. On August 31, the question President Obama put to Congress and the country was whether to authorize a limited, proportional military attack on Syrian President Bashar al-Assads regime for the purpose of punishing it for conducting a major chemical attack earlier that month, degrading his chemical attack capabilities, and deterring any future use of chemical weapons. Ten days later, he asked Congress to postpone this vote pending serious discussion of a Russianbacked proposal that would prevent a military strike if the Syrian government agreed to place its chemical weapons under international control. Whatever President Obama decides to do in the coming weeks, the hypothetical case you have been assigned here raises larger and more difficult questions. It asks what else, beyond deterring future uses of chemical weapons, the U.S. could or should do to stop the killing in Syria, prevent the spread of violence to neighbors and the region, and secure and advance other U.S. interests impacted by these developments. The Situation in Syria Since December 2010, the Arab revolutions have toppled regimes in four countries (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen) and sparked significant revolts in two more (Bahrain and Syria), as well as now one counterrevolution (Egypt, again). Having observed the fates of Hosni Mubarak and Muammar al-Qaddafi, however, President Bashar al-Assad in Syria has vowed to fight for survival at whatever cost. What began as a non-violent uprising against a brutal regime has metastasized over the past 30 months into a full-scale civil war now claiming more than 5,000 lives per month. Since the standoff began in March 2011, more than 100,000 Syrians have been killed. Six million more have been forced from their homes. Of the now two million refugees who have successfully fled the country, neighboring Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq have received the lions share. An uptick in Syria-inspired violence in these countries signals the possibility of a widening war. Inside Syria, the conflict has aggravated long-standing sectarian divides, roughly pitting Alawite and Christian minorities against a Sunni Muslim majority. Taking advantage of the chaos, Syrias Kurdish population in the countrys northeast has made recent moves toward autonomy. If a stalemate persists, some observers expect an internecine conflict akin to Lebanons 15-year civil war, or, as Thomas Hobbes might have put it, a war of all against all. Attempts to find a diplomatic solution, most recently a U.S.- and Russia-backed peace conference proposed in May, have faltered as disagreements continue over the list of

participants. Neither the Assad regime nor the Western-backed Syrian National Coalition indicates a serious willingness to reach a settlement at the negotiating table. Meanwhile, the Syrian regimebacked by Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah fightershas achieved a series of military victories in recent months, including important battles at Qusayr and Homs. A once-steady flow of military defections has slowed to a trickle, and the core of Assads Baath Party loyalists remains largely intact. After many left Assad for dead a year ago, a growing number of analysts now worry that the authoritarian regime may last for years to come. The opposition to Assad consists of over 1,200 disparate groups that are ill-equipped and deeply fragmented. The Western-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) claims to include more than 80,000 loosely-affiliated fighters, but disparate FSA militias are often confined to patrolling their own neighborhoods. Moreover, the oppositions most cohesive and effective combat fighting groups are Salafist jihadists whose agendas are antithetical to U.S. interests. One important group is Jabhat al-Nusra, an Al Qaeda affiliate blacklisted by Washington as a foreign terrorist organization. Yet a steady flow of weapons and other equipment reaches these groups, mostly through Qatar, which has bankrolled the Syrian opposition with around $3 billion to date. Saudi Arabia, Qatars neighbor and competitor, has funneled even more to the more moderate forces fighting Assad. Finally, Syrias chemical and biological weapons add a further dimension of complexity. In August 2012, President Obama said, A red line for us is if we see a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around, or being utilized. That would change my calculus. Yet, reluctant to act, the administration took its time in considering the evidence in roughly a dozen small-scale attacks that appeared to involve chemical weapons. In June 2013, the Obama administration reported with high confidence that Assads regime had in fact killed 100-150 Syrians with sarin gas in a series of attacks. Around the same time, President Obama authorized a covert, CIA-led operation to arm and train select groups of rebel fighters. On August 21, a large-scale use of sarin gas killed more than a thousand people in eastern Damascus, including hundreds of children. In response, President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry vowed to hold Assads regime accountable for this attack. After they publically presented the case for limited, surgical cruise missile attacks on Syrian military targetsand the Pentagon completed plans to execute that orderPresident Obama called time out at the final hour. In a move that surprised the core leadership of his national security team as much as outsiders, Obama delayed military action by referring the issue to Congress. The Obama administrations proposed resolution would authorize all necessary and appropriate military measures to prevent or deter the use or proliferation of chemical or biological weapons and protect the United States and its allies against the threat posed by such weapons. The issue continues to twist in the wind. On September 9, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov seized upon an apparently offhand remark by Secretary Kerry in a London press conference and called on the Assad regime to not only agree on putting chemical weapons storages under international control, but also for its further destruction and then joining the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Before the day was out, President

Obama had called the Russian proposal a potential breakthrough, though he reiterated the need to trust, but verify. Yesterday, in a televised address to the nation, President Obama asked Congress to postpone a vote on military action so that his administration could pursue this potential diplomatic opening. As this hypothetical case is presented, it remains uncertain whether Congress will continue to consider military action, and, if so, how the American peoples representatives will vote. Assignment You are a new, trusted assistant to Susan Rice, the recently appointed National Security Advisor. As President Obamas former ambassador to the United Nations and a member of the National Security Council, Rice has been involved with Syria policy since the conflicts inception. But she is deeply uneasy about the course of events. As a passionate advocate of human rights who served in the Clinton administration when it stood on the sidelines during the Rwandan genocide, among her deepest core convictions is: never again. Reflecting on that experience, Rice said in 2001: I swore to myself that if I ever faced such a crisis again, I would come down on the side of dramatic action, going down in flames if that was required. As a relative newcomer to the Syria challenge, you have been chosen as a pair of fresh eyes to produce new, creative ideas about how the United States can act more aggressively and effectively to meet this challenge. Rice has told you that in her gut, she is certain that we could and should be doing a lot more to stop the killing, prevent the metastasis of a cancer that is spreading to the region, and secure U.S. interestsbut the question is what. President Obama remains focused narrowly and specifically on deterring future use of chemical weapons in Syria. Neither the military options he has been considering, nor the diplomatic initiative to disarm Syrias chemical arsenal, aim to significantly alter the balance of military forces on the ground or compel Assads government to negotiate. Despite this swirl of events, the issue Susan Rice has asked you to address is the much larger question of what else, beyond deterring future use of chemical weapons, should the United States do to stop the killing, prevent the metastasis of a cancer that is spreading to the region, and secure and advance U.S. interests. Her assignment to you: an eyes only strategic options outline that she can share with the President on where we stand now, what is likely to happen if U.S. strategy remains the same, realistic strategic alternatives that could better protect and advance American interests, and your best recommendations for moving forward. Strategic option 1 should characterize current U.S. strategy. Option 2 should summarize what you judge to be the most promising military action the U.S. could undertake. Option 3 should develop a third strategic initiative that is non-military but harnesses other instruments of American power. For example, you are free to propose a strategy for driving the Assad government and rebel groups to a negotiated settlement, for forcing regime change, for compelling Assad to turn over his chemical weapons stockpile, or for triggering the breakup of the countryor any other outcome that you see as desirable. But both option 2 and option 3 must be designed to, at a minimum, fulfill Rices objectives.

Logistics Please enter your strategic options outline in the text box provided on the application form, adhering to the SOPs and formatting guidelines provided. Note that outlines may not exceed 600 words.