Grade 7 Mathematics, Quarter 4, Unit 4.

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

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Overview
Number of instructional days: Content to be learned
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1. o 0 indicates an impossible occurrence (0% probability) and 1 indicates a certainty(100% probability). A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

12

(1 day = 4560 minutes)

Mathematical practices to be integrated

3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. Understand and use stated assumptions, definitions, and previously established results in constructing arguments. Make conjectures about random samples and build a logical progression of statements to explore the truth of the conjectures. Analyze situations by breaking them into cases. Distinguish correct logic or reasoning from that which is flawed to justify random samples. Draw informal comparative inferences regarding two sets of data.

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data. Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. o Develop a uniform probability model (theoretical probability of equally likely events) to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected. Develop a probability model (which may not be equally likely) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. (experimental probability) For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

4. Model with mathematics. Solve problems arising in everyday life, society, and the workplace. Analyze mathematical relationships to draw conclusions. 5. Use appropriate tools strategically. Consider the available tools (calculator, spreadsheet, box plot, line plot, histogram, etc.) when solving a mathematical problem. Detect possible errors by strategically using estimation and other mathematical knowledge. Know that technology can help visualize the results of varying assumptions, explore consequences, and compare predictions with data. Identify relevant external mathematical resources, such as digital content located on a website, and use them to pose or solve problems.

Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.

Southern Rho de Island Regional Collaborative with pro cess support from T he Charles A. Dana Center at the University o f Texas at Austin Revised 2013-2014

Understand that the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables, and tree diagrams. Identify the outcomes in the sample space that compose the event. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.

Use technological tools to explore and deepen understanding of concepts.

8. Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. Notice patterns in experiment results. Look for general methods and shortcuts (Fundamental Counting Principle). Maintain oversight of the process while attending to detail. Continually evaluate the reasonableness of results.

Essential questions
What does it mean for an event to be likely, unlikely, or neither? How can you determine this likelihood? What is the difference between experimental and theoretical probability? How do you determine the probability of an event? Given the probability, how can you approximate the relative frequency? How can you approximate the probability of an event? What is the difference between a simple event and a compound event?

Written Curriculum
Common Core State Standards for Mathe matical Content Statistics and Probability
Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models. 7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event. Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times. Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

7.SP

7.SP.6

7.SP.7

Southern Rho de Island Regional Collaborative with pro cess support from T he Charles A. Dana Center at the University o f Texas at Austin Revised 2013-2014

a.

Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

b.

7.SP.8

Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. a. b. Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs. Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., rolling double sixes), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events. For example, use random digits as a simulation tool to approximate the answer to the question: If 40% of donors have type A blood, what is the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A blood?

c.

Common Core Standards for Mathe matical Practice

3 Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.

Mathematically proficient students understand and use stated assumptions, definitions, and previously established results in constructing arguments. They make conjectures and build a logical progression of statements to explore the truth of their conjectures. They are able to analyze situations by breaking them into cases, and can recognize and use counterexamples. They justify their conclusions, communicate them to others, and respond to the arguments of others. They reason inductively about data, making plausible arguments that take into account the context from which the data arose. Mathematically proficient students are also able to compare the effectiveness of two plausible arguments, distinguish correct logic or reasoning from that which is flawed, andif there is a flaw in an argumentexplain what it is. Elementary students can construct arguments using concrete referents such as objects, drawings, diagrams, and actions. Such arguments can make sense and be correct, even though they are not generalized or made formal until later grades. Later, students learn to determine domains to which an argument applies. Students at all grades can listen or read the arguments of others, decide whether they make sense, and ask useful questions to clarify or improve the arguments. 4 Model with mathematics.

Mathematically proficient students can apply the mathematics they know to solve problems arising in everyday life, society, and the workplace. In early grades, this might be as simple as writing an addition equation to describe a situation. In middle grades, a student might apply proportional reasoning to plan a school event or analyze a problem in the community. By high school, a student might use geometry to solve a design problem or use a function to describe how one quantity of interest depends on another. Mathematically proficient students who can apply what they know are comfortable making assumptions and approximations to simplify a complicated situation, realizing that these may need revision later. They are able
Southern Rho de Island Regional Collaborative with pro cess support from T he Charles A. Dana Center at the University o f Texas at Austin Revised 2013-2014

to identify important quantities in a practical situation and map their relationships using such tools as diagrams, two-way tables, graphs, flowcharts and formulas. They can analyze those relationships mathematically to draw conclusions. They routinely interpret their mathematical results in the context of the situation and reflect on whether the results make sense, possibly improving the model if it has not served its purpose. 5 Use appropriate tools strategically.

Mathematically proficient students consider the available tools when solving a mathematical problem. These tools might include pencil and paper, concrete models, a ruler, a protractor, a calculator, a spreadsheet, a computer algebra system, a statistical package, or dynamic geometry software. Proficient students are sufficiently familiar with tools appropriate for their grade or course to make sound decisions about when each of these tools might be helpful, recognizing both the insight to be gained and their limitations. For example, mathematically proficient high school students analyze graphs of functions and solutions generated using a graphing calculator. They detect possible errors by strategically using estimation and other mathematical knowledge. When making mathematical models, they know that technology can enable them to visualize the results of varying assumptions, explore consequences, and compare predictions with data. Mathematically proficient students at various grade levels are able to identify relevant external mathematical resources, such as digital content located on a website, and use them to pose or solve problems. They are able to use technological tools to explore and deepen their understanding of concepts. 8 Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.

Mathematically proficient students notice if calculations are repeated, and look both for general methods and for shortcuts. Upper elementary students might notice when dividing 25 by 11 that they are repeating the same calculations over and over again, and conclude they have a repeating decimal. By paying attention to the calculation of slope as they repeatedly check whether points are on the line through (1, 2) with slope 3, middle school students might abstract the equation (y 2)/(x 1) = 3. Noticing the regularity in the way terms cancel when expanding (x 1)(x + 1), (x 1)(x2 + x + 1), and (x 1)(x3 + x2 + x + 1) might lead them to the general formula for the sum of a geometric series. As they work to solve a problem, mathematically proficient students maintain oversight of the process, while attending to the details. They continually evaluate the reasonableness of their intermediate results.

Clarifying the Standards

Prior Learning Students have not been introduced to probability. Current Learning In grade 7, students understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. They collect data on a chance event and predict its relative frequency. Students develop a probability model and use it to find the probability of an event. They compare theoretical and experimental probabilities. Students find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation. Future Learning In grade 8, students will investigate patterns of association in bivariate data. In high school, they will interpret categorical and quantitative data, make inferences and justify conclusions, investigate conditional probability, and use probability to make decisions.
Southern Rho de Island Regional Collaborative with pro cess support from T he Charles A. Dana Center at the University o f Texas at Austin Revised 2013-2014

Additional Findings
Elementary and Middle School Mathematics Teaching Developmentally notes that informal ideas about chance and probability, when developed early, provide necessary background for concepts to be constructed at the middle and secondary levels. (p. 407)

Southern Rho de Island Regional Collaborative with pro cess support from T he Charles A. Dana Center at the University o f Texas at Austin Revised 2013-2014