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Technical Note 17

Simulation
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Definition of Simulation Simulation Methodology Proposing a New Experiment Considerations When Using Computer Models Types of Simulations Desirable Features of Simulation Software Advantages & Disadvantages of Simulation

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OBJECTIVES

Simulation-Defined
A

simulation is a computer-based model used to run experiments on a real system

Typically done on a computer Determines reactions to different operating rules or change in structure Can be used in conjunction with traditional statistical and management science techniques
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Start
Define Problem
Construct Simulation Model

Major Phases in a Simulation Study

Lets look at each of these steps in turn

Specify values of variables and parameters

Run the simulation Evaluate results Validation Propose new experiment Stop
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From Exhibit TN17.1

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Simulation Methodology:Problem Definition

Specifying

the objectives

Identifying

the relevant controllable and uncontrollable variables of the system to be studied

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Constructing a Simulation Model

Specification of Variables and Parameters Specification of Decision Rules

Specification of Probability Distributions Specification of Time-Incrementing Procedure

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Data Collection & Random No. Interval Example Suppose you timed 20 athletes running the
100-yard dash and tallied the information into the four time intervals below

You then count the tallies and make a frequency distribution

Then convert the frequencies into percentages
You then can add the frequencies into a cumulative distribution
Finally, use the percentages to develop the random number intervals

Seconds Tallies 0-5.99 6-6.99 7-7.99 8 or more

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Frequency 4 10 4 2

% 20 50 20 10

Accum. % 20 70 90 100

RN Intervals 00-19 20-69 70-89 90-99

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Specify Values of Variables and Parameters

Determination

of starting

conditions
Determination

of run length

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Run the Simulation

By

computer

Manually

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Evaluate Results

Conclusions depend on

the degree to which the model reflects the real system design of the simulation (in a statistical sense)

The only true test of a simulation is how well the real system performs after the results of the study have been implemented

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Validation
Refers

to testing the computer program to ensure that the simulation is correct

insure that the model results are representative of the real world system they seek to model

To

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Proposing a New Experiment

Consider

changing many of the

factors:

If

parameters variables decision rules starting conditions run length

the initial rules led to poor results or if these runs yielded new insights into the problem, then a new decision rule may be worth trying
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Considerations When Using Computer Models

Computer

language selection

Flowcharting
Coding Data

generation reports

Output

Validation
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Types of Simulation Models

Continuous

Based on mathematical equations Used for simulating continuous values for all points in time Example: The amount of time a person spends in a queue Used for simulating specific values or specific points Example: Number of people in a queue
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Discrete

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Desirable Features of Simulation Software

16

Be capable of being used interactively as well as allowing complete runs

Be user-friendly and easy to understand

Allow modules to be built and then connected Allow users to write and incorporate their own routines Have building blocks that contain built-in commands Have macro capability, such as the ability to develop machining cells

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Desirable Features of Simulation Software

Have material-flow capability

Output standard statistics such as cycle times, utilization, and wait times
Allow a variety of data analysis alternatives for both input and output data Have animation capabilities to display graphically the product flow through the system Permit interactive debugging

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Advantages of Simulation
Often leads to a better understanding of the real system Years of experience in the real system can be compressed into seconds or minutes Simulation does not disrupt ongoing activities of the real system Simulation is far more general than mathematical models Simulation can be used as a game for training experience

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Advantages of Simulation (Continued)

19

Simulation provides a more realistic replication of a system than mathematical analysis Simulation can be used to analyze transient conditions, whereas mathematical techniques usually cannot Many standard packaged models, covering a wide range of topics, are available commercially Simulation answers what-if questions

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Disadvantages of Simulation

There is no guarantee that the model will, in fact, provide good answers There is no way to prove reliability Building a simulation model can take a great deal of time Simulation may be less accurate than mathematical analysis because it is randomly based A significant amount of computer time may be needed to run complex models The technique of simulation still lacks a standardized approach
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End of Technical Note 17

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