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Basic Probability Concepts

Probability is the chance or likelihood that an uncertain (particular) event will occur. There are three approaches to assessing the probability of un uncertain event: 1.Theoretical or a Priori or Classical Probabilitybased of a prior knowledge prob. Of occurrence X number of occurance of the event T total number of possible outcomes.

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11K views8 pages

Basic Probability Concepts

Probability is the chance or likelihood that an uncertain (particular) event will occur. There are three approaches to assessing the probability of un uncertain event: 1.Theoretical or a Priori or Classical Probabilitybased of a prior knowledge prob. Of occurrence X number of occurance of the event T total number of possible outcomes.

Uploaded by

api-204699162
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Basic Probability Concepts

Definitions:
Probability

the chance or likelihood that an uncertain (particular) event will occur

Probability
Sample An

is always between 0 and 1, inclusive

Space the collection of all possible events

Event Each possible type of occurrence or outcome from the sample space Event an event that can be described by a single characteristic of an event A -- All outcomes that are not part of event A

Simple

Complement

Definitions:
There

are three approaches to assessing the probability of un uncertain event:


1.Theoretical or a Priori or Classical Probability based of a prior knowledge
prob. of occurrence X number of occurance of the event T total number of possible outcomes

2.Empirical or Experimental or Relative Frequency Probability based on observed data


prob. of occurrence number of favorable outcomes observed total number of outcomes observed

3.Subjective probability an individual judgment or opinion about the probability of occurrence

Contingency Tables:
A sample
It

space can be presented by a Contingency Table

is very useful for the study of empirical probabilities

Example:

400 managers were surveyed about booking airline tickets and researching prices of tickets in the internet

Sample Space: Total Number of Managers Surveyed

Booked Airline Ticket in the Internet

Yes, B1 Researched Prices in the Internet Yes, A1 No, A2 Totals 88 20 108

No, B2 124 168 292

Totals 212 188 400

Tree Diagram:
A tree

diagram can be used to illustrate all possible outcomes Example: Tossing of 3 coins

What

is the probability of tossing 3 heads?

Tree Diagram:
A tree

diagram can be used to illustrate all possible outcomes Example: Tossing of 3 coins

What

is the probability of tossing 2 tails?

Tree Diagram:
A tree

diagram can be used to illustrate all possible outcomes Example: Tossing of 3 coins

What

is the probability of tossing at least 2 tails?

Tossing Two Dice

What is the probability of rolling an odd number with one die? All possible outcomes = 6 Number of successful outcomes = 3 P(odd number) = 0.5

(1, 3, 5)

What is the probability of rolling a prime number with one die? All possible outcomes = 6 Number of successful outcomes = 3 (2, 3, 5) P(prime number) = 0.5

What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7 with two dice? P(sum of 7) = 6/36 = 1/6 or 0.167

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