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TUTORIAL Forecasting

The document provides data on cell phone sales over 10 weeks for a California firm and freight car loadings over 18 weeks at a busy port. It asks to determine the trend line equations for this data and use the equations to predict future values. It also provides an equation for estimating trend in monthly hot tub demands that combines trend and seasonality, and asks to predict demands for January, February and March using this equation and given seasonal adjustment coefficients.

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Bhushan Kumar
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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100 views1 page

TUTORIAL Forecasting

The document provides data on cell phone sales over 10 weeks for a California firm and freight car loadings over 18 weeks at a busy port. It asks to determine the trend line equations for this data and use the equations to predict future values. It also provides an equation for estimating trend in monthly hot tub demands that combines trend and seasonality, and asks to predict demands for January, February and March using this equation and given seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Uploaded by

Bhushan Kumar
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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TUTORIAL-TREND LINE ANALYSIS Q1 Cell phone sales for a California-based firm over the last 10 weeks are shown

in the following table. Determine the equation of the trend line, and predict sales for weeks 11 and 12. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q2 Unit Sales 700 724 720 728 740 742 758 750 770 775

Freight car loadings over a 12-year period at a busy port are: Week Number Week Number Week Number 1 . . . . . 220 7 . . . . . 350 13 . . . . . 460 2 . . . . . 245 8 . . . . . 360 14 . . . . . 475 3 . . . . . 280 9 . . . . . 400 15 . . . . . 500 4 . . . . . 275 10 . . . . 380 16 . . . . . 510 5 . . . . . 300 11 . . . . 420 17 . . . . . 525 6 . . . . . 310 12 . . . . .450 18 . . . . . 541 Compute a linear trend line for freight car loadings. Use the trend equation to predict loadings for weeks 20 and 21. The manager intends to install new equipment when the volume reaches 800 loadings per week. Assuming the current trend continues, the loading volume will reach that level in approximately what week? A manager of a store that sells and installs hot tubs wants to prepare a forecast for January, February, and March of next year. Her forecasts are a combination of trend and seasonality. She uses the following equation to estimate the trend component of monthly demand: y t = 70 + 5t where t= 0 in June of last year. Seasonal adjustment coefficients are 1.10 for January, 1.02 for February, and .95 for March. What demands should she predict?

a) b) c) Q3

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