African Stock Markets
African Stock Markets
African Stock Markets
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FOREWORD
The African Stock Markets Handbook, published by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) on the occasion of the 2003 African Capital Markets Forum, provides investors with a comprehensive overview of the African stock industry. With cross-country data, country profiles and detailed market information on all 18 African stock exchanges, it should help potential investors consider the many investment opportunities now available through the continents financial markets.
During the last decade, the number of African Stock Exchanges has risen from 10 to 18. There are now stock markets in Botswana, Cte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. These stock exchanges range from the larger South African and Egyptian exchanges that were established in the 1880s to smaller exchanges in Uganda and Mozambique only in the past four years.
African equities represent a vastly underutilized option for international investors. These are growing markets that have provided attractive returns in the last several years and can achieve the goal of portfolio diversification as they offer a superior risk/return profile that is not affected by trends in the more developed markets. Many African equities have very attractive Price/Earnings ratios. And as this Handbook shows, two of the top five world best performing stock exchanges were African markets; Sub Sahara Africa indices, weighted by country market capitalisation, have outperformed most developed and emerging markets indices. The cumulative returns in the last five years in US dollars for sub-Saharan-Africa has been 4.3% in comparison to 3.9% for the S&P 500 and 15.5% for the UK FTSE 100.
UNDP, as the UNs global development network, has organized the 2003 African Capital Markets Forum in collaboration with the New York Stock Exchange and the African Stock Exchanges Association and published this Handbook to help the African countries derive more benefits from portfolio investments and further integrate in the global economy. By mobilizing private capital, Africa can promote the economic growth needed to reduce poverty.
Zphirin Diabr
CONTENT
Foreword Acknowledgements Africas Equity Markets - A Synopsis Sub-Saharan Performance - Cumulative Capital Raising in Africa An Overview of Depositary Receipts Country Profiles Algeria Botswana Cte d'Ivoire (West Africa Bourse) Egypt Ghana Kenya Malawi Mauritius Morocco Namibia Nigeria South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe 1 3 4 5 13 21 23 28 33 39 45 51 57 62 68 74 79 84 91 96 101 107 112 117
Acknowledgements: This Handbook could not have been prepared without the generous support and contribution of many individuals and organizations. We are particularly grateful to Mr. Zphirin Diabr, Associate Administrator of UNDP, for his intellectual leadership and vision. His deep commitment to the development of African financial markets has been a source of great strength to the Handbook Team. His original insights and advice on the role of capital markets in the economic development of African countries have shaped the content of this Handbook. Many other individuals consulted during the preparation of the Report provided invaluable advice, information, material, and assistance. The Handbook Team would specifically like to thank the following people: Sunil Benimadhu, CEO, Mauritius Stock Exchange Tony Nkrumah Brobbey, Vice President, Bank of New York John Chambers, Managing Director, Standard & Poors Brad Durham , Managing Director, Emerging Portfolio Peri Johnson, Office of Legal Affairs, UNDP Rajeswary Iruthayanathan, Communications Office, UNDP Sydney Maree, Corporate Marketing and Communications, JSE Securities Exchange South Africa Renaud Meyer, Office of the Administrator, UNDP Nicholas Okoye, Head of Strategy and Derivative Markets, Nigerian Stock Exchange Ravi Rajan, Director, Operations Support Group, UNDP We are grateful to the following institutions for allowing us to reproduce data and material from their publications: Human Development Report Office, UNDP CIA World Factbook Emerging Portfolio LiquidAfrica Standard and Poors JSE Security Exchange of South Africa Standard Chartered Bank Cover Shot: JSE Security Exchange of South Africa The information in this Handbook was provided principally by Liquid Africa. The views and data in this Handbook are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations Development Programme. The United Nations Development Programme and Liquid Africa do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The material in this publication is copyrighted.
As diverse and contrasting is the continent of Africa, so too are Africas capital markets. With 53 countries, the African continent has over 20 active stock exchanges, including one of the only regional stock exchanges in the world, linking eight French-speaking countries in West Africa. With a market capitalisation of over US$ 180 billion in South Africa, Africa hosts one of the largest stock markets in the world. This is in stark contrast to the other African stock markets that have comparatively small market capitalisations. With the exception of the South African market and to a limited extent the North African markets, African stock markets are described as frontier marketsThese markets are typically . characterised by a relatively small capitalisation and liquidity levels. As a consequence, most of these markets are excluded from the main regional equity market indices and as a result attract little Global Emerging Markets (GEM) portfolio funds. However, amid bearish performance of developed stock markets over the past two and a half years, several leading African markets such as Botswana have bucked the negative trend and recorded solid performance. Smaller African markets have proved relatively immune to global jitters hitting share values worldwide, due to their lack of correlation with developed markets. This distinct characteristic of African equity markets offers positive benefits in terms of risk diversification. African stock exchanges face a number of challenges before they could enter a new phase of rapid growth. The most critical issue is to eliminate existing impediments to institutional development. These include a wider dissemination of information on these markets, the implementation of robust electronic trading systems and the adoption of central depository systems. A number of countries have already begun implementing necessary changes notably in the area of trading and settlement systems and regulatory regimes that will continue to improve.
The 1990s witnessed a deliberate shift by a number of African governments to free market policies driven by the desire to reduce the burden on government finances. This was achieved by implementing market-friendly reforms. A central component of this process was the privatisation of State-owned companies. A number of these privatisation were effected by listing on the local exchanges. In order to further stimulate the development of a local capital market, many subsidiaries of large international companies were also encouraged to list their local operation. For entrepreneurs as well as emerging private companies, capital raising in African equity markets is vibrant despite the relative small size of issues. Some African governments have taken advantage of the development of the local capital markets to issue stock exchange listed treasury debt instruments. Kenya and Ghana are a case in point, where these governments have been able to issue longer-term instruments thus better managing local debt. The spin off of this has been improved transparency in pricing of local bank lending facilities and increased competition within local banking industries. We continue to witness rapid development in the debt segment of the African capital markets. An increasingly encouraging trend is the development of the local pension fund industry. With the exception of South Africa and to some extent Southern Africa, private and institutional cash flows have traditionally been invested mostly in real estate, term bank deposits and treasury bills. A number of African countries have introduced as part of wider financial sector reforms new laws enabling the emergence of a local fund management industry. Looking ahead, African capital markets represent the final frontier of global capital.
(1) Annual index return includes dividends. 2 years = Jan. 2001 to Dec. 2002, 3 years = Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2002, 5 years = Jan. 1998 to Dec. 2002 (2) Market capitalisation weighting of Sub Saharan countries (ex South Africa) for beginning 2002 Source: LiquidAfrica
99,360 167,574 176,374 206,140 276,241 300,673 283,252 224,492 225,846 159,970 38,168 16,269 11,054 10,845 47,135 14,057 50,002 4,099 36,678 9,225 66,556 51,016 51,182 9,327 38,144 3,711 63,262 30,906 30,659 1,697 96,531 32,168 62,287 2,076 98,085 45,594 49,605 2,886 89,408 51,858 40,914 -3,364 5,636 -23,309 29,472 -527 8,235 -26,796 -6,124 -32,271 16,878 9,508 -2,519 -4,033
90,027 106,817 130,780 172,494 178,263 184,353 166,691 168,238 35,165 36,060 48,929 30,094 15,567 34,456 50,867 18,527
99,147 124,212 153,685 220,931 222,410 260,193 306,572 341,406 336,653 271,871 261,133 196,477 27,044 53,583 81,866 149,010 137,254 156,498 195,548 221,958 206,412 131,876 111,464 39,265 14,094 71 5,101 -2,027 4,095 3,793 15,559 3,152 2,610 -5,326 4,301 3,952 17,692 1,098 120 -7,659 4,788 4,416 18,197 1,664 2,764 -5,238 4,465 4,070 16,856 1,569 -303 -8,303 5,593 5,162 20,104 16,841 1,105 -7,033 4,930 4,426 18,685 1,057 1,362 -6,444 5,723 5,210 15,737 14,659 6,715 -177 5,287 4,755 16,285 19,231 6,803 -226 4,814 4,260 16,628 15,545 -12,566 -10,979 5,091 3,394 -2,633 -4,855 4,510 4,175 3,909 3,553 15,200 12,751 2,199 -5,847 4,737 4,119
1993 261 414 3,814 118 1,060 842 2,651 28 1,029 171,942 297 956 1,433 184,845 1,664,045 12,353,880 14,017,925 11.1% 1.3%
1994 377 428 4,263 1,873 3,082 1,578 4,376 201 2,711 225,718 338 2,561 1,828 249,334 1,882,103 13,233,217 15,115,320 13.2% 1.6%
1995 398 866 8,088 1,649 1,886 1,562 5,951 189 2,033 280,526 339 3,927 19 2,038 309,471 1,893,625 15,894,462 17,788,087 16.3% 1.7%
1996 326 914 14,173 1,492 1,846 15 1,693 8,705 473 3,560 241,571 471 4,263 195 3,635 283,317 2,223,895 18,028,762 20,252,657 12.7% 1.4%
1997 614 1,276 20,830 1,138 1,824 110 1,754 12,177 689 3,646 232,069 129 2,321 705 1,969 281,251 2,133,165 20,983,312 23,116,477 13.2% 1.2%
1998 724 1,818 24,381 1,384 2,024 148 1,849 15,676 429 2,887 170,252 85 236 2,268 301 1,310 225,772 1,775,267 25,148,563 26,923,830 12.7% 0.8%
1999 306 1,052 1,514 32,838 916 1,409 161 1,643 13,695 691 2,940 262,478 95 181 2,706 280 2,514 325,419 2,948,429 33,180,126 36,128,555 11.0% 0.9%
2000 303 978 1,185 28,741 502 1,283 212 1,335 10,899 311 4,237 204,952 73 233 2,828 37 236 2,432 260,777 2,608,486 29,614,264 32,222,750 10.0% 0.8%
2001 199 1,269 1,165 24,335 528 1,050 152 1,061 9,087 151 5,404 139,750 127 398 2,303 34 217 7,972 195,202 2,572,064 25,246,554 27,818,618 7.6% 0.7%
2002 145 1,717 1,329 26,245 382 1,676 107 1,324 8,319 201 5,989 182,616 146 695 1,810 52 231 11,689 244,672 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
295 483 3,259 84 637 424 1,909 21 1,221 103,537 111 814 628 113,423 981,617 9,950,909 10,932,526 11.6% 1.0%
1993 20 6 170 5 14 39 498 0 10 13,049 0 46 53 13,910 1,096,098 6,098,477 7,194,575 1.3% 0.2%
1994 31 12 757 75 62 86 788 18 18 15,607 2 296 176 17,928 1,654,807 7,167,124 8,821,931 1.1% 0.2%
1995 38 14 677 22 65 69 2,426 3 14 17,048 0 663 0 150 21,189 1,040,196 9,186,521 10,226,717 2.0% 0.2%
1996 31 19 2,463 17 67 81 432 41 72 27,202 2 281 3 255 30,966 1,564,668 12,036,689 13,601,357 2.0% 0.2%
1997 59 24 5,859 49 106 142 1,051 24 132 44,722 378 260 8 539 53,353 2,353,324 16,138,507 18,491,831 2.3% 0.3%
1998 70 39 5,028 60 79 10 104 1,390 13 160 58,347 0 0 188 3 186 65,677 2,368,356 20,207,122 22,575,478 2.8% 0.3%
1999 1 38 85 9,038 25 74 6 78 2,530 22 145 72,917 0 7 420 12 227 85,625 2,922,368 27,438,067 30,360,435 2.9% 0.3%
2000 5 47 33 11,120 10 47 9 74 1,094 22 263 77,494 0 40 626 0 8 279 91,171 3,956,869 43,912,999 47,869,868 2.3% 0.2%
2001 3 65 8 3,897 13 40 21 109 974 8 496 69,676 10 8 316 0 53 1,530 77,228 2,400,844 39,676,018 42,076,862 3.2% 0.2%
2002 0 62 16 7,362 11 36 3 59 922 129 486 76,792 0 19 704 1 2 131 85,825 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
10
Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook Note: n.a. Indicates not available
11
12
1992 21.86 2.23 3.33 520.00 36.22 3.60 15.40 8.89 4.84 21.50 4.84 4.20 297.71 0.96 1,133.8 271.49 156.25 5.48
1993 23.85 2.56 3.36 815.00 68.31 4.50 18.84 9.69 4.29 40.00 4.29 3.39 405.27 1.05 1,195.0 294.78 434.78 6.94
1994 24.31 2.72 3.40 1051.00 44.40 4.49 18.84 9.10 4.08 22.00 4.08 3.55 522.00 0.99 979.4 523.00 696.10 8.37
1995 52.16 2.82 3.39 1455.00 55.95 15.38 18.33 8.47 3.65 86.10 3.65 3.67 618.00 0.97 1025.00 490.55 975.25 9.32
1996 56.15 3.66 3.39 1740.20 55.00 15.45 19.91 8.76 4.68 78.40 4.68 4.68 615.00 1.00 1032.50 519.98 1297.00 10.82
1997 58.41 3.80 3.40 2243.60 62.20 21.76 22.18 9.74 4.87 75.72 4.87 4.86 619.60 1.14 1148.00 578.85 1413.00 18.45
1998 60.35 4.46 3.41 2345.20 62.05 45.25 24.52 9.26 5.86 89.00 5.88 5.87 690.78 1.10 1362.00 560.50 2426.00 37.22
1999 64.85 4.63 3.42 3500.00 72.80 46.66 25.42 10.08 6.16 100.05 6.16 6.16 802.00 1.26 1510.00 654.42 2880.00 37.95
2000 70.92 5.36 3.89 7275.00 78.05 47.49 27.82 10.56 7.75 110.00 7.57 7.63 810.00 1.38 1760.00 698.68 4150.00 55.10
2001 73.91 7.02 4.58 7400.00 78.60 68.87 30.25 11.52 12.00 120.00 12.00 12.20 950.14 1.46 1730.00 736.70 4047.00 55.45
2002 77.16 5.40 4.65 8634.90 77.83 87.27 29.42 10.42 8.73 130.62 8.66 8.65 992.22 1.37 1738.00 625.85 4600.00 57.15
Egypt
Ghana
Kenya
Malawi Mauritius
Morocco
Source: LiquidAfrica
13
14
Nigeria
May-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Jul-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Nov-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03
Evans Medical Plc Lion Bank Mutual Benefits Assurance Presco Plc NAL Bank Plc Cornerstone Insurance Plc Afribank Nigeria Plc First Atlantic Bank Albarka Air Plc Pharma-Deko Hallmark Bank Afex Bank Intercontinental Bank
Pharmaceuticals Banks Insurance Agricultural Products Banks Insurance Banks Banks Airlines Pharmaceuticals Banks Banks Banks
Secondary IPO IPO IPO Secondary Secondary IPO IPO IPO Secondary Secondary Secondary IPO
Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital Raise capital
1 26 1 na 40 4 124 na na na 33 7 11
3 10 na na 11 1 9 2 na na 4 na na
Tanga Cement Somocer East Africa Breweries Kenya Airways Bank of Baroda Uganda Zambia breweries Pamodzi Hotel Bata shoes
Cement Capital Goods Breweries Airlines Banks Breweries Hotel & Tourism Consumer goods
Privatisation Raise capital Dual Listing Dual Listing Divestiture Raise capital Raise capital Divestiture
30 41 127 47 3 12 3 0.2
15 9 6 4 na 5 10 2
Zambia
Source: LiquidAfrica
West Africa
Source: LiquidAfrica Research Notes: 1. Market capitalisation and Price Earning ratio are as of January 2003 for South Africa and Decemeber 2002 for all the others.
15
Insurance Mining & Metals Agricultural Products IT Airlines Breweries Consumer Goods Financial Food Pharmaceuticals Telecom. Assurance Auto Distribution Capital Goods Cement Chemical Education & Pub Oil & Gas Other FinancialServices Other Transport Packaging Retail & Dist
16
Dominant Sectors
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Source: LiquidAfrica
In terms of market, Nigeria (16 issues) was the most buoyant market, followed by South Africa (9), Egypt (7), Namibia (6), Botswana (5), Zimbabwe (4) and Morocco (4).
High valuations drive capital raising Foreign institutions have been relatively absent
The size of funds raised on African equity markets remains relatively small, ranging from a few hundred thousand US dollars (Bata Shoes in Zambia) to several million US dollars (Investec in London, Namibia and South Africa). The highest valuation achieved in public listing or secondary offering (in terms of historical earnings multiple) was achieved in Botswana, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. This does not come as a surprise as these are some of the most expensive markets in terms of earning multiples. There is clearly a positive correlation between high average market earning multiple and number of listings, as high earning multiple attract companies to the market. As a sign of an increased integration of African stock exchanges, we have seen over the past 18 months an increase in the number of dual listings or cross listings in other stock exchanges, particularly in Namibia, Uganda. The vast majority of dual listings were South African or Kenyan companies seeking to heighten their profile in countries were they do significant business or seeking cheaper access to capital. Finally, most of the capital was raised from local institutions and retail investors. International emerging market portfolios and retail investors were absent. Outside the SADC region, African cross border institutional portfolio flow is virtually nil, essentially as a result of foreign exchange controls and country pension fund regulation.
17
18
Symbol ABSA AECIPY -AFGEY AFKDY AESRP -ALAHB -AAPTY AU AVAAY ANAVY ASL ASHAYP AVGLY BINDQ.L -BMDC -BRRAY BDVSY CGSMY GMGJY -DROOY ERNDY EFGHYP -ELCMY ENAFYP -ESKA ESKB ESKC ESKD ETNVY FHNIY
Cusip 22672109 7597107 7597305 8283103 8292203 10204204 10204303 10203107 10203206 34855106 35128206 35134501 35134303 43743202 43743103 53651105 06675A108 06675A207 06674P106 06674P205 67680207 88836101 125394106 201712106 201712205 266597301 274677202 268425303 268425402 282341205 2.93E+111 2.93E+210 296463102 296463300 296463201 296463409 297870107 349870105
Exch PORTAL PORTAL -OTC OTC PORTAL -PORTAL -OTC NYSE PORTAL OTC NYSE PORTAL OTC PORTAL -PORTAL -OTC OTC OTC PORTAL -NASDAQ OTC PORTAL -OTC PORTAL -OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC
Ratio Country ADR: ORD 01:02 01:03 01:03 01:01 01:01 01:03 01:03 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:10 02:01 02:01 03:01 03:01 01:01 01:02 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:02 01:02 01:01 01:05 01:05 1:10000 1:10000 1:10000 1:10000 01:01 01:02 South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Egypt Egypt Egypt Egypt South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Ghana Ghana South Africa Tunisia Tunisia Morocco Morocco South Africa South Africa South Africa Egypt Egypt South Africa South Africa Egypt Egypt South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa
Industry Banks Chemicals Chemicals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Beverage Beverage Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Banks Banks Banks Banks Gen. Indust'l Svcs Investment Services Indust'l Diversified Banks Banks Mining & Metals Mining & Metals Diversified Financ'l Diversified Financ'l Mining & Metals Energy Energy Electric Utilities Electric Utilities Electric Utilities Electric Utilities Mining & Metals Retail
Region Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa
Dep. Bank DB BNY BNY BNY BNY DB DB DB DB BNY, CIT, DB BNY MGT BNY, MGT BNY BNY MGT BNY BNY DB DB BNY, CIT, MGT BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY, CIT, MGT BNY BNY BNY, DB, MGT BNY BNY MGT MGT MGT MGT BNY, CIT, MGT BNY
S/u Eff. Date S S S S S S S S S U S S U S S S S S S S U S S S S S U S S U S S S S S S U S 22-Jul-97 01-Oct-96 01-Oct-96 22-Mar-02 11-Mar-02 22-Jun-99 22-Jun-99 01-Feb-97 01-Feb-97 15-Jan-83 05-Aug-98 23-Jun-94 15-Jan-83 01-Jan-95 11-Aug-95 01-Jan-97 10-Feb-98 10-Feb-98 01-Apr-96 01-Apr-96 15-Jan-83 23-Jan-02 01-Sep-94 31-Jul-01 31-Jul-01 01-Aug-96 15-Jan-83 28-Jul-98 28-Jul-98 15-Jan-83 01-Feb-96 01-Feb-96 01-Sep-95 01-Sep-95 01-Sep-95 01-Sep-95 15-Jan-83 17-Dec-97
Symbol FSDIY GNCRY GFI HMY HMYWS HSVLY HCFRIP -IMPUY IHSAY IVBOY ISCRY ISCRY JDGRY JHNCY JNHLY KOLHY KMTUY KBREY LBYGY MTZIY -MRRCY MTDGY WWNOTC MIBZY MISRY MTNOY NMPKY -NPSN NDCRY --OCDIY OLDMYP -ORASYP --
Cusip 356146407 368681300 38059T106 413216300 413216110 431232206 434883104 434883203 452553308 452833106 46128U103 464272202 464272202 472144104 47805P102 478058100 500445101 500458401 501252100 53055R103 576813109 59160Y107 59160Y305 553763202 596034207 55306G208 55306G109 62474M108 629898107 S53240131 631512100 63975P103 63975P202 S55020101 674765102 680031101 68554N106 68554W106 68554W205
Exch OTC OTC NYSE NYSE NYSE NASDAQ PORTAL -OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC -OTC OTC OTC OTC PORTAL OTC OTC -NASDAQ OTC PORTAL -OTC PORTAL -PORTAL --
Ratio Country ADR: ORD 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:03 01:03 02:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:10 01:04 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:04 01:04 01:01 01:03 02:01 02:01 01:01 01:01 01:03 01:10 01:02 01:01 01:01 01:02 01:10 01:02 02:01 02:01 South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Egypt Egypt South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Zimbabwe South Africa Egypt Egypt South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Egypt Egypt Egypt
Industry
Region
Dep. Bank BNY, CIT, DB, MGT BNY, CIT, DB, MGT BNY BNY BNY BNY, CIT, DB, MGT BNY BNY DB BNY CIT BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY CIT CIT BNY BNY BNY DB DB BNY BNY, CIT, MGT BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY
S/u Eff. Date U U S S S U S S S S S S S S S S S S S S U S S U U S S S S S S S S S S S S S S 15-Jan-83 15-Jan-83 10-May-99 01-Aug-96 29-Jun-01 26-Oct-81 28-Jul-99 28-Jul-99 23-Dec-02 01-Jun-96 12-May-95 16-Sep-94 16-Sep-94 30-Dec-96 11-Dec-01 24-Jul-01 04-Apr-96 01-Oct-82 26-Nov-01 01-Nov-94 15-Jan-83 06-Feb-96 01-Aug-96 15-Jan-83 01-Jan-70 03-Feb-98 24-Jun-97 13-Dec-01 01-Jan-95 01-Oct-94 23-Dec-02 08-Feb-99 08-Feb-99 08-Feb-99 01-May-95 19-Jul-99 26-Jun-02 12-Jul-00 12-Jul-00
Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Healthcare Providers Africa Healthcare Providers Africa Africa Mining & Metals Industrial Transport Africa Africa Banks Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Retail Africa Publishing Africa Mining & Metals Africa Textiles & Apparel Africa Industrial Equip. Africa Mining & Metals Africa Insurance Africa Mining & Metals FoodRetail&Wholesale Africa FoodRetail&Wholesale Africa Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Banks Africa Banks Africa Fixed Line Comm. Containers&PackagingAfrica Containers&PackagingAfrica Africa Publishing Africa Banks Africa Banks Africa Banks Africa Mining & Metals Africa Insurance Heavy Construction Africa Communications Tech.Africa Communications Tech.
19
20
Symbol -PKRLY PEPKYP -RADMY RANGY RDGEYAP GOLD RMGOY SBMRY SFABYP SGGEY SLYLY SPP SASOY SJACY STILY STKKY SUBGY -SZCCYP ICFEY TIBDY TIBDY TDHDY TRHXY UBAFYP -VNFNY WARSY WLTUY WLTVY WWHZY WWHLYP ZAMBY ZMBAY ZREGY
Cusip 69578R107 713350304 713350205 7.41E+104 752228205 753009307 753009109 752344309 75956M107 78572M105 78572M204 786631200 79545M107 803069202 803866300 828666206 860673201 861313104 864266200 864690201 864690102 45928M105 88673M102 88673M102 89254M206 893234104 90953F104 90953F203 922672100 957654205 980860100 980860209 98088R208 98088R109 988901203 988892204 98912W100
Exch -OTC PORTAL -OTC NASDAQ PORTAL NASDAQ OTC OTC PORTAL OTC OTC NYSE NASDAQ OTC OTC OTC OTC -PORTAL OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC PORTAL -OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC PORTAL OTC OTC OTC
Ratio Country ADR: ORD 03:01 01:02 01:02 20:01 10:01 01:03 01:01 01:02 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:03 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:25 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:30 01:01 0.1805556 0.1805556 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:01 01:10 01:10 01:01 01:01 10:01 Egypt South Africa South Africa Malawi South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Egypt Egypt Egypt South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Nigeria Nigeria South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Zambia Zambia South Africa
Industry
Region
Dep. Bank DB BNY BNY DB BNY, CIT, DB BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY DB BNY BNY BNY BNY, MGT BNY, CIT, DB, MGT BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY BNY, CIT, DB BNY BNY BNY BNY MGT BNY, CIT, MGT BNY, CIT, MGT
S/u Eff. Date S S S S U S S S S S S S U S S U U S U S S S S S S S S S S U S S S S S U U 08-Oct-97 01-Dec-94 01-Jun-94 16-Mar-98 15-Jan-83 28-Feb-97 03-Oct-96 10-Jul-02 28-Sep-00 01-Oct-94 04-Oct-96 01-Feb-96 19-Mar-01 05-Nov-98 01-Jul-94 15-Jan-83 15-Jan-83 01-Dec-94 15-Jan-83 29-Nov-96 29-Nov-96 13-Apr-01 01-Sep-94 01-Sep-94 21-Dec-01 01-Mar-95 08-May-98 08-May-98 01-Aug-94 15-Jan-83 01-Jul-95 01-Jul-95 16-Dec-99 01-Jun-98 01-Jan-70 15-Jan-83 01-Jan-70
Africa Chemicals Africa Retail Africa Retail Africa Indust'l Diversified Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Investment Services Africa Africa Beverage Africa Beverage Africa Insurance Africa Mining & Metals ForestProducts&Paper Africa Africa Energy Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Heavy Construction Africa Africa Mining & Metals Africa Building Materials Africa Building Materials Africa Food Africa Food Africa Food Africa Retail Africa Mining & Metals Africa Banks Africa Banks Investment Services Africa Africa Mining & Metals Africa Retail Africa Retail Africa Retail Africa Retail Africa Mining & Metals Africa Mining & Metals Africa Energy Africa
Benefits to an Investor
Increasingly, investors aim to diversify their portfolios internationally. However, obstacles such as undependable settlements, costly currency conversions, unreliable custody services, poor information flow, unfamiliar market practices, confusing tax conventions and internal investment policy may discourage institutions and private investors from venturing outside their local market. Depositary Receipt advantages may include: Quotation in U.S. dollars and payment of dividends or interest in U.S. dollars. Diversification without many of the obstacles that mutual funds, pension funds and other institutions may have in purchasing and holding securities outside of their local market. Elimination of global custodian safekeeping charges, potentially saving Depositary Receipt investors up to 10 to 40 basis points annually. Familiar trade, clearance and settlement procedures. Competitive U.S. dollar/foreign exchange rate conversions for dividends and other cash distributions. Ability to acquire the underlying securities directly upon cancellation.
21
22
January 2003
Mkt Value of Holdings End of Month US$ mn 2.420 131.860 30.050 0.710 2.050 20.580 0.000 3,179.940 0.800 5.300 3,971.940 Net Purchases (Sales) as % of BoM Holdings % -5.06% -1.59% -8.81% 1.03% -18.57% 4.60% -104.56% -0.32% 75.06% -17.82% -0.72%
Increase Mkt Value of Holdings during month US$ mn 0.170 6.103 6.450 0.144 0.193 0.707 0.005 173.534 0.012 0.328 116.294
Net Purchases (Sales) for the Month US$ mn -0.120 -2.033 -2.280 0.006 -0.423 0.873 -0.105 -9.574 0.338 -1.078 -27.914
2.370 127.790 25.880 0.560 2.280 19.000 0.100 3,015.980 0.450 6.050 3,883.560
ALGERIA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP (PPP) GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita (PPP) Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
106 Algiers Arabic (official), French, Berber dialects 32,277,942 (July 2002 est.) 1.68% 70.24 61.60% 34% (2001 est.) petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, phosphates, uranium, lead, zinc $177 billion 3.80% $5,600 3% 23.556 billion kWh (2000) $20 billion Italy 23%, Spain 13%, US 13%, France 11%, Brazil 7%, (2000) $1 billion France 29%, US 9%, Italy 8%, Germany 6%, Spain 5% (2000) $20.3billion $18.8 billion, including capital expenditures of $5.8 billion (2001 est.) Algerian dinar (DZD) $24.7 billion (2001 est.) Algerian dinars per US dollar - 77.889 (January 2002), 77.215 (2001), 75.260 (2000), 66.574 (1999), 58.739 (1998), 57.707 (1997) 2.3 million (1998) 136 (2001)
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Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / A LG E R I A
24
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / A LG E R I A
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) LA All Share Index (Dec 2001 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 -
1993 -
1994 -
1995 -
1996 -
1997 -
1998 -
1999 306 1 2
2000 303 5 3
Monthly closing index values 2002 LA All Share Index (Dec 2001 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 101.57
FEB 98.20
MAR 94.33
APR 92.34
MAY 84.78
JUN 78.52
JUL 78.52
AUG 75.91
SEP 72.67
OCT 70.20
NOV 71.56
DEC 73.06
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % T bill Exchange Rate v. USD
Key points The Front de Liberation Nationales (FLN) resounding victory in the parliamentary elections will make it easier for the government to press ahead with reform Fundamentalist violence still remains a significant threat, whilst endemic unemployment could be a recipe for further social unrest. The energy sector will be Algeria's principal growth engine and should be further boosted by government reform.
Source: Standard Chartered Bank
105 90
75 60 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
25
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / A LG E R I A
26
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / A LG E R I A
MARKET OVERVIEW
Poor stock market performance The Algerian market experienced a significant downturn in 2002, posting a negative 30% return in US Dollars. The Banque dAlgrie (Algerian central bank) proceeded with a policy of gradual depreciation of the dinar to the US dollar in an attempt to make its exports more competitive. Growth in the important hydrocarbons sector was partially offset by increased imports from Europe. Economic ties with Europe have been strengthened resulting in trade barriers being gradually dismantled. Looking forward, the Algerian market looks set to grow dramatically off a low base, as more private companies look at listing on the market.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Bourse dAlger (c/o Socit de Gestion de la Bourse de Valeurs) Address 27 Blvd Colonel Amiroushe Telephone +213 21 63 4813 Fax +213 21 63 4799 STOCKBROKERS Errached el Mali d'Intermdiation en Bourse (Errached el Mali spa) Address 02 Bd Hassiba ben bouali imm.BEA 2 tage- Rouiba Director Mohamed Sefraoui Telephone +213 21 854 092/854 206 Fax +213 21 854 092 Socit Financire en Conseil et Placement (SOFICOP spa) Adresse 12, rue Ali Boumendjel2e tage Alger Director Sid Ali Siouani Telephone +213 21 713 368/713 375 Fax +213 21 713 376 Socit de Placement de Valeurs Mobilires (BADR/CAAR SPDM B/C spa) Address 139 Ter Krim Belkacem Alger Director Abdennour HOUAOUI Telephone +213 21 747 026 Fax +213 21 716 44 UB Brokerage (UB Brokerage spa) Adresse 30, rue Djenane el malik - Hydra Director Ouzzani Karim dit Hakim Telephone +213 2 591 010/11 590 331 Fax +213 2 727 478
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Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / A LG E R I A
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Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / B OTS WA N A
BOTSWANA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP (PPP) GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capital Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
126 Gaborone English (official), Setswana 1,591,232 0.18% (2002 est.) 35.29 69.80% 40% (official rate is 21%) (2001 est.) Diamonds, copper, nickel, salt, soda ash, potash, coal, iron ore, silver $12.4 billion 4.70% (2001 est.) $7,800 (PPP 2001 est.) 6.60% (2001 est.) 500 million kWh (2000) $2.5 billion EFTA 85%, Southern African Customs Union (SACU) 10%, Zimbabwe 2% (1999) $2.1 billion Southern African Customs Union (SACU) 77%, EFTA 9%, Zimbabwe 4% (1999) $2.3billion $2.4 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (FY01/02) pula (BWP) $325 million (2001) pulas per US dollar - 6.8353 (January 2002), 5.8412 (2001), 5.1018 (2000), 4.6244 (1999), 4.2259 (1998), 3.6508 (1997) 150,000 (2000) 92 (2001)
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) BSE Domestic Index (Jun 1989 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
Monthly closing index values 2002 BSE Domestic Index (Jun 1989 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 2563.73
FEB 2576.88
MAR 2633.85
APR 2588.15
MAY 2602.01
JUN 2540.31
JUL 2464.24
AUG 2478.47
SEP 2478.25
OCT 2431.69
NOV 2520.46
DEC 2501.41
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (3 month BOBCs) % Exchange Rate v. USD restated
BSE Domestic Index (US$) Key points Slowdown in mining to trigger slower growth Increasing focus on economic diversification expected Adoption of strong pula policy buffers BWP (Botswana pula) from ZAR (South African rand) weakness Inflation likely to be temporarily pressured by introduction of VAT (Value Added Tax) Few signs of stabilisation in HIV infection rates AIDS remains the country's most significant challenge
Source: Standard Chartered Bank 115
105
95 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
29
Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / B OTS WA N A
30
Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / B OTS WA N A
Local share price (P) 14.75 7.50 5.90 8.30 2.50 16.30 15.35 10.40 1.10 1.12
Price to earnings (x) 14.9 15.3 16.3 9.8 6.5 7.6 5.9 8.9 7.0 13.0
Dividend yield (%) 6.0 4.4 5.4 10.0 5.8 9.8 6.5 9.8 14.2 6.3
Price to book (x) 6.6 6.4 7.5 3.3 4.0 2.8 2.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 5.6
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Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / B OTS WA N A
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Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / B OTS WA N A
MARKET OVERVIEW
One of Africas best performing markets The Botswana economy is arguably one of the best economic success stories in Africa driven in no small part by its diamond mining industry. The mining sector accounts for 37% of Botswanas GDP ensuring 25% of world diamond production in value terms. Growth in diamond production has slowed due to the over supply and recent global economic weakness. Sound monetary and fiscal policies have underpinned economic growth over the last three decades. Average annual inflation has declined steadily from more than ten percent in the 1990s as credit growth and government spending declined. Over the past year, the pula has appreciated 29% in line with the South Africa rand. The stock exchange closed the year up 32% in 2002, the second best performance in sub-Sahara Africa, largely due to the aforementioned appreciation of the pula. In the first quarter of 2002, the domestic index rose 17% in US dollar terms on the back of encouraging end year results and improving exchange rate of the pula. However the index declined thereafter in pula terms on weakness in bank stocks where it became clear earnings growth would not keep pace with previous rates. Banking stocks in particular went through a downward re-rating while other sectors maintained upward momentum. Looking ahead, the Botswana economy should continue to show resilience by posting GDP growth above 5%. Current government economic policy is to diversify the economy with particular emphasis on manufacturing, tourism and financial services. Over the medium term, some gains in this front are expected . The market in tandem should continue to see further growth on the back of currently high valuations, making it an attractive market to list particularly for companies from neighbouring countries.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Botswana Stock Exchange Address: 2nd Floor U N Place Khama Crescent, Gaborone Postal: P/Bag 00417, Gaborone Tel: +267 30 5190/37 4078 Fax: +267 37 4079 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.bse.bw/ STOCKBROKERS Stockbrokers Botswana Ltd Address: Ground Floor, Barclays House Khama Cresent Postal: Private Bag 00113 Gabarone Tel No: +267 39 57900 Fax No: +267 39 57901 Motswedi Securities Address: 2nd Floor, United Nations Building Postal: P O Box 41015 Gaborone Tel No.: +267 31 88627 Fax: +267 31 74079 Capital Securities Pty. Ltd. Address: Ground Flr Moedi Plot 50380 Show Grounds Postal: P/Bag 173 Gaborone Tel. +267 31 88886 Fax +267 31 88887
156 Yamoussoukro French (official), 60 native dialects with Dioula the most widely spoken 16,804,784 2.45% (2002 est.) 44.72 48.50% 13% in urban areas (1998 est.) Petroleum, natural gas, diamonds, manganese, iron ore, cobalt, bauxite, copper, hydropower $25.5 billion (PPP 2001) -1% (2001 est.) $1,550 (2001 est.) 2.5% (2000 est.) 4.08 billion kWh (2000) $3.6 billion France 13%, US 8%, Netherlands 7%, Germany 7%, Italy 6% (1999) $2.4 billion France 26%, Nigeria 10%, China 7%, Italy 5%, Germany 4% (1999) $1.72billion $2.4 billion, including capital expenditures of $420 million (2001 est.) Communaut Financi re Africaine franc (XOF) $13.3 billion (2000 est.) Communaut Financire Africaine francs (XOF) per US dollar - 742.79 (January 2002), 733.04 (2001), 711.98 (2000), 615.70 (1999), 589.95 (1998), 583.67 (1997); note - from 1 January 1999, the XOF is pegged to the euro at a rate of 655.957 XOF per euro 263,700 (2000) 36 (2001)
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34
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) BRVM 10 Index (Sep 1998=100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 483 4 27
1993 414 6 24
1994 428 12 27
1995 866 14 31
1996 914 19 31
1997 1,276 24 35
JAN 73.23
FEB 71.57
MAR 70.11
APR 70.09
MAY 71.94
JUN 70.50
JUL 68.20
AUG 66.52
SEP 67.20
OCT 66.34
NOV 68.64
DEC 75.15
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % Exchange Rate v. USD
2003f -1 6 7 650
BRVM 10 Index (US$) Key points The region has been thrown into economic turmoil following a military uprising in Cte dIvoire in 2002. The once stable macroeconomic environment has been disrupted as the conflict interrupted the harvesting and marketing of the critical cocoa. This is bound to have a negative impact on the countrys balance of payments. The prolonged conflict has led to strong inflationary pressures.
110
100
90
80 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price (CFA) 20,000 73,500 40,000 30,100 15,940 50,000 23,970 13,600 87,500 37,500
Price to earnings (x) 4.2 11.3 26.3 16.7 8.3 6.9 10.3 9.5 7.2 6.8 9.9
Dividend yield (%) 14.5 10.9 12.5 5.2 9.4 14.4 6.4 9.6 13.8 14.8 11.8
Price to book (x) 1.1 3.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 3.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.8 1.8
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MARKET OVERVIEW
The toll of the war will come to bear on the market Following the military up rising in Cote dIvoire in September 2002, the region has been thrown into economic turmoil where some of the neighbouring states have had to bare significant disruptions to their economies, particularly those landlocked states that rely on transportation links through Cote dIvoire. Prior to the conflict, the prognosis for the country and the wider region were bright on account of higher commodity prices like oil, gold and cocoa. This occurred at a time when improvements in production levels had been achieved. The conflict in Cote dIvoire has disrupted production and marketing operations of cocoa. On a macro level, the government had been prudent in its spending maintaining a healthy budgetary position and inflation outlook. The prolonged nature of the conflict has almost certainly disrupted this delicate balance and it is only a question of time before inflationary pressures are felt. The regional exchange was expected to record significant gains in the year and a number of companies had begun to show improvements in performance.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Bourse Rgionale des Valeurs Mobilires S.A. (BRVM) Address: 18, Rue Joseph Anoma (Rue des Banques) Abidjan - Cte d'Ivoire BP: 01 BP 3802 Abidjan 01 Tl: +225 20 32 6685 / 6686 Fax: +225 20 32 6684 Email: [email protected] STOCKBROKERS Benin ACTIBOURSE Contact: Address: BP: Telephone: Fax: Email: Fax: Email: GRANGE BRIGITTE (General Manager) Avenue Jean-Paul II 08 B.P. 0879 Cotonou +229 31 5343 / 31 3228 +229 31 7800 [email protected] SGI BENIN SA Contact: Address: BP: Telephone: Fax: Email: +229 31 4229 [email protected]
BIBE FINANCE & SECURITIES SA Contact: M. Hospice HAZOUME (General Manager) Address: Avenue Jean-Paul II BP: 03 B.P. : 2098 Cotonou Telephone: +229 31 4465 / 31 4688
M. Anatole Georges GEORGES WILSON (General Manager) Carr n 21 - Immeuble FANCY PALACE Avenue Delorme 01 B.P. : 4546 Cotonou +229 31 1541 / 31 1571 +229 31 1560 / 31 3299 [email protected]
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Cte d'Ivoire AFRICAINE DE BOURSE Contact: M. Levry TOGOU (General Manager) Address: 34, Bd de la Rpublique BP: 01 BP 1300 Abidjan 01 Telephone: +225 20 219 826 / 832 Fax: +225 20 219 827 / 200 119 Email: [email protected] BIAO FINANCES & ASSOCIES Contact: M. Jerome KOUAKOU (General Manager) Telephone: +225 20 200 720 / 653 / 679 Fax: +225 20 339 093 Web Site: www.biaofi-ci.com BICIBOURSE Contact: Address: BP: Telephone: Fax: Web Site:
M. Souleymane ABDALLAH (General Manager) 2, Rue du Souvenir B.P. 10812 Niamey - Niger +227 73 7817 / 7818 +227 73 7816 [email protected]
M. Jean Luc BEDIE (General Manager) 15, Avenue Joseph Anoma - Immeuble MACI / 10 me tage 18 BP 2294 Abidjan 18 +225 20 332 223 / 321 804 +225 20 332 224 [email protected] www.hudson-cie.com
M. KOUASSI YAO (General Manager) Abidjan Plateau, Rue Gourgas - Tour BICICI 1er tage 01 BP 1298 Abidjan 01 - Cote d'Ivoire +225 20 201 668 / 679 / 625 +225 20 214 722 / 201 700 www.bicibourse.com
M. Patrick BROCHET (General Manager) +225 20 201 265 / 291 / 579 +225 20 201 489 / 525 [email protected] www.afribourse.com
M. GABRIEL FAL (General Manager) 12, rue Dr THEZE - Immeuble Coumba Castel 3me tage - DAKAR B.P. 10812 Niamey - Niger +221 849 0399 +221 823 3899 [email protected] www.cgfbourse.sn
BP:
M. EDOH KOSSI AMENOUNVE (General Manager) Place Van Vollenhoven - UTB Centrale - 3 tage BP 2312 Lom Togo +228 222 3086 / 3145 +228 222 3147 [email protected]
EGYPT
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capital Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
115 Cairo Arabic (official), English and French widely understood by educated classes 70,712,345 (July 2002 est.) 1.66% (2002 est.) 64.05 51.40% 12% (2001 est.) Petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, phosphates, manganese, limestone, gypsum, talc, asbestos, lead, zinc $258 billion (PPP) 2.50% (2001 est.) $3,700 (PPP 2001 est.) 2.30% (2001 est.) 69.592 billion kWh (2000) $7.1 billion EU 43% (Italy 18%, Germany 4%, UK 3.2%), US 15%, Middle East 11%, Asian countries 9%, (2000) $164 billion EU 36% (Germany 8%, Italy 8%, France 6%), US 18%, Asian countries 13%, Middle East 6% (2000) $21.5billion $26.2 billion, including capital expenditures of $5.9 billion (2001) Egyptian pound (EGP) $29 billion (2001 est.) Egyptian pounds per US dollar - market rate - 4.5000 (January 2002), 4.4900 (2001), 3.6900 (2000), 3.4050 (1999), 3.3880 (1998), 3.3880 (1997) 3,971,500 (December 1998) 92 (2001)
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Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) CMA General Index (Jan 1992 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
Monthly closing index values 2002 CMA General Index (Jan 1992 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 603.58
FEB 618.04
MAR 618.61
APR 621.28
MAY 626.00
JUN 627.36
JUL 628.26
AUG 630.71
SEP 631.33
OCT 629.79
NOV 630.37
DEC 634.70
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % Exchange Rate v. USD
2005f NA NA NA NA
CMA General Index (US$) Key points The government is committed to liberalising the economy, as is evident in the floating of the Egyptian Pound. Regional tensions are likely to have a negative affect on economic growth with a slump in tourism in the short term.
104.0
100.0
96.0 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price (LE) 30.90 31.99 22.78 27.01 32.00 56.00 7.90 10.40 55.00 24.00
Price to earnings (x) 9.0 21.3 6.5 4.4 4.4 5.0 47.6 35.9 5.7 5.0 17.1
Price to book (x) 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.4
Market Capitalisation (US$mn) 665 440 424 378 316 301 292 246 160 155 3,221
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MARKET OVERVIEW
Regional tensions hampered the Egyptian economy The Egyptian stock exchange had a tough year in 2002 due to the tensions in the Middle East and an anaemic economy. US Dollar returns where marginally positive (2%). Geo-political tensions significantly affected tourism, which is the single most important industry in Egypt. The banking sector suffered particularly badly from the weak macroeconomic environment, precipitating in increased bank loan loss provisions. This resulted in several banking stocks exhibiting negative returns. International brewer Heineken purchased the 98.5% stake in Al Ahram Beverages for approximately $290m, which should be seen as a sign of foreign investor confidence in the Egyptian economy. A trend of significantly lower value traded on the Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchange is emerging. Trading turnover slumped from a high of $11 billion in 2000 to $6.6 billion in 2002 (a 45% decline), which can be attributed to the depressed Egyptian economy. The Cairo and Alexandria Stock Exchanges have the largest number of listed companies in comparison to the other African stock exchanges, however its market capitalisation languishes far behind the South African JSE Securities Exchange.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Cairo and Alexandira Stock Exchanges Address: 4A, El Sherifein Street Down Town, Cairo Tel: +20 2 392 1447/2 Fax: +20 2 392 4214 Wesite: www.egyptse.com El Nasr Securities Brokerage Co. Managing Dir.: Gamal Abdel Alim Ahmed Address: 29, El Nasr St., New Maadi Tel.: +20 2 519 2722/3990/75 Fax: +20 2 519 2778 Email: [email protected] European Group for Brokerage Managing Dir.: Metwally Hassan M. Zidan Address: 76, Gameat El dewel El Arabia Mohandessin Tel.: +20 2 338 6670 Fax: +20 2 338 6675 Email: [email protected] Financial Brokerage Group Member of EFG-Hermes Group Managing Dir.: Mohamed A. Hassan Address: 58, Tahrir St., Dokki Tel.: +20 2 338 8867/4 Fax: +20 2 338 8633/68 Email: [email protected] Fleming Al Mansour Securities Managing Dir.: Mohamed Abdallah Address: 9, Mohamed Fahmy St., Garden City Tel.: +20 2 352 4475 Fax: +20 2 352 4475/1
STOCKBROKERS Egyptian Group for Securities Managing Dir.: Osama Mahmoud Hammad Address: 88, Kasr El Aini St., Down Town Tel.: +20 2 594 0183/1789 Fax: +20 2 594 0183/1789 Email: [email protected]
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Mahmoud Attallah 3, Aboul Feda St., Zamalek +20 2 339 1927/332 0145/6 +20 2 332 0028 [email protected]
GHANA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
129 Accra English (official), African languages (including Akan, Moshi-Dagomba, Ewe, and Ga) 20,244,154 1.70% (2002 est.) 57.06 64.50% 20% (1997 est.) Gold, timber, industrial diamonds, bauxite, manganese, fish, rubber, hydropower $39.4 billion (PPP) 3% (2001 est.) $1,980 (PPP 2001 est.) 25% (2001 est.) 5.92 billion kWh (2000) $1.94 billion (f.o.b., 2000) Togo, UK, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, US, France (1998) $2.83 billion UK, Nigeria, US, Germany, Italy, Spain (1998) $1.603billion $1.975 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (2001 est.) cedi (GHC) $5.96 billion (2001 est.) cedis per US dollar - 7,195 (January 2002), 7,170.76 (2001), 5,455.06 (2000), 2,669.30 (1999), 2,314.15 (1998), 2,050.17 (1997) 240,000 (2001) 12 (2001)
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Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) GSE All Share Index (Nov 1990 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 84 0 79.10 15
Monthly closing index values 2002 GSE All Share Index (Nov 1990 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 957.34
FEB 969.89
MAR 1018.02
APR 1041.05
MAY 1132.68
JUN 1223.69
JUL 1257.08
AUG 1309.71
SEP 1310.67
OCT 1339.76
NOV 1362.65
DEC 1395.31
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % T bill Exchange Rate v. USD
GSE All Share Index (US$) Key points Higher prices for cocoa and gold favour Ghana outlook Non-traditional exports rise, boosted by cedi competitiveness Surge in oil price still a risk for Ghana Privatisation expected to accelerate Interest rates to decline further No significant political risks seen
Source: Liquid Africa and Standard Chartered Bank 145 135 125 115 105 95 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price () 3,516.00 28,700.00 4,805.00 3,966.00 390.00 3,700.00 1,050.00 19,730.00 1,001.00 2,005.00
Price to earnings (x) 3.1 4.0 5.4 3.7 27.9 5.3 3.5 6.0 2.5 4.5
Dividend yield (%) 11.4 14.6 10.7 3.8 14.9 16.7 7.9 11.3 2.9 10.4
Price to book (x) 1.7 2.4 1.1 1.2 5.3 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5
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48
MARKET OVERVIEW
The Ghanaian economy shows signs of continued growth The Ghanaian economy has enjoyed a good run from the implementation of appropriate monetary policy where inflation has declined from 40% to 13% over the last two years. These gains have been consistent with the improved exchange rates where the cedi depreciation rate has reduced. Probably the most significant factor in Ghanas economy is the improved production and prices of cocoa and gold. Ironically, the Ghanaian economy has benefited from the tensions in neighbouring Cote dIvoire. Prices of cocoa have increased, thanks to the dramatic slump in exports from Cote dIvoire, which used to be the largest international exporter of cocoa. This should go a long way to shore up the local economy; however, these high commodity prices cannot be expected to be sustainable in the long term. In 2002, the stock market enjoyed a rally of sorts when the local interest rates on treasury bills declined to 25% from 40%. Local investors seeking higher returns invested in local equities as real interest rates declined. In addition, corporates operating in Ghana enjoyed a more stable macro environment as volatility in the cedi declined allowing for better long term planning. Ghanaian companies posted higher earnings in 2002 and this further encouraged investors into the equity market. Looking ahead into 2003, this trend is expected to continue as the government consolidates its gains on the macro front.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Ghana Stock Exchange Address: 5th Floor, Cedi House, Liberia Road Accra, Ghana Postal: P. O. Box 1849 Accra, Ghana Tel: +233 21 669 908/914/935 Fax: +233 21 669 913 E-mail: [email protected] Web sites: www.gsedata.com www.gse.com.gh STOCKBROKERS Cal Brokers Limited Address: No. 45 Independence Avenue, Ridge, Accra Postal: P O Box 14596 Accra Tel No: +233 21 231102/221056/221087 Fax No: +233 21 231104 Consodiscount Asset Management Co. Limited Address: 3rd Floor, Tower Block SSNIT Pension House Accra Postal: P O Box 14911 Accra North Tel No: +233 21 667425/668437 Fax No: +233 21 662167 Data Bank Brokerage Limited Address: SSNIT Tower Block, 5th Floor, Accra Postal: Private Mail Bag Ministries Post Office Accra Tel No: +233 21 665124/663763 Fax No: +233 21 669100 EBG Stockbrokers Limited Address: No. 19, 7th Avenue, Ridge (West) Accra Postal: Tel No: Fax No: P O Box 16746, Accra-North +233 21 228812/231931 +233 21 231934
First Atlantic Brokers Ltd (Formerly Financial Equities Ghana Ltd) Address: No. 1, 7th Avenue, Off Liberia Road Accra Postal: P O Box 5188, Accra- North Tel No: +233 21 667088 Fax No: +233 21 775743/231399 Gold Coast Securities Limited Address: 350 Nima Avenue, Accra Postal: P O Box 17187,Accra Tel No: +233 21 225155/226310/229892/233050 Fax No: +233 21 777380/233050
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50
KENYA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
134 Nairobi English (official), Kiswahili (official), numerous indigenous languages 31,138,735 1.15% (2002 est.) 47.02 78.10% 40% (2001 est.) Gold, limestone, soda ash, salt barites, rubies, fluorspar, garnets, wildlife, hydropower $31 billion (PPP) 1% (2001 est.) $1,000 (PPP 2001 est.) 3.30% (2001 est.) 4.616 billion kWh (2000) $1.8 billion UK 13.5%, Tanzania 12.5%, Uganda 12.0%, Germany 5.5% (2000) $3.1 billion UK 12%, UAE 9.8%, Japan 6.5%, India 4.4% (2000) $2.91billion $2.97 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (2000 est.) Kenyan shilling (KES) $8 billion (2001 est.) Kenyan shillings per US dollar - 78.597 (January 2002), 78.563 (2001), 76.176 (2000), 70.326 (1999), 60.367 (1998), 58.732 (1997) 310,000 (2001) 231 (2001)
51
A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / K E N YA
52
A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / K E N YA
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) NSE 20 Share Index (Jan 1966=100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
Monthly closing index values 2002 NSE 20 Share Index (Jan 1966=100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 1343.41
FEB 1313.57
MAR 1183.10
APR 1129.33
MAY 1071.07
JUN 1086.62
JUL 1097.73
AUG 1043.38
SEP 1043.40
OCT 1116.36
NOV 1161.12
DEC 1317.45
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (3m T-Bill) % Exchange Rate v. USD
2002e 1 4 10 79.5
2003f 2.3 3 15 82
NSE 20 Index (US$) Key points Kenya appears poised for recovery after a peaceful presidential election Kenya will benefit from strong growth in East Africa Export growth has been impressive, despite the sluggish domestic economy Recovery to trigger slow, steady depreciation of the KES Current low interest rates are at odds with domestic fundamentals
Source: Standard Chartered Bank 102
92
82
72 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price (Ksh) 98.50 42.50 58.50 119.00 54.00 77.00 22.00 6.25 54.00 17.00
Price to earnings (x) 6.2 21.1 6.5 5.6 8.9 10.7 -9.9 3.3 11.8 6.7 8.7
Dividend yield (%) 14.2 2.6 14.1 9.7 14.6 3.2 9.6 3.7 9.2
Price to book (x) 1.6 1.5 2.5 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.6
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A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / K E N YA
54
A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / K E N YA
MARKET OVERVIEW
A peaceful and democratic general election bodes well for 2003 For most of 2002 the Kenyan market was dominated by speculation over the presidential election that was held right at the end of the year. For most part of 2002 the market registered declines but in the last quarter recovered as it became clearer the presidential and legislative elections would be orderly and probably be declared free and fair. The economy was starved of donor funding in late 2000 owing to concerns over corruption and governance issues. Following the outcome of the election, it is widely expected that the funding will be resumed. In the interim, the government plugged the hole in its finances by borrowing from the local market. Interest rate levels remain low as a result of weak domestic demand undermining economic activity. In 2002, the Central Bank achieved some success in lengthening the maturity profile of its local debt portfolio. It aims to achieve a ratio of 70:30 (long term to short term debt) having attained a 56:44 ratio at the end of 2002. El Nio associated rainfall in November 2002 should improve harvests, with a beneficial short-term impact on inflation. This is in contrast to other Southern African countries that are suffering from food shortages associated with El Nio drought. The local stock market should perform well in 2003 as it is coming of a low base. A key driver could be the implementation of the incoming governments pledge to privatise state corporations. Upcoming full year results for 2002 should reflect the poor economic trading environment that persisted. Banks in particular should report weaker earnings as a result of lower average interest rates available through 2002 and limited lending opportunities. The outlook for 2003 shall be guided by quick resumption of donor funding, increased investment in infrastructure, which could induce private investment. The improved business confidence and the upbeat social climate should filter through the economy boosting corporate earnings.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Nairobi Stock Exchange Address: Nation Centre 1st Floor Kimathi Street, Nairobi Postal: P.O. Box 43633 Tel: +254 2 230 692 Fax: +254 2 224 200 E-Mail: [email protected] Website: www.nse.co.ke STOCKBROKERS Francis Drummond & Co Ltd Address: Queensway House, 3rd Floor Kaunda Street Postal: P O Box 45465 Nairobi Tel No: +254 2 334533 Fax No: +254 2 223061 Dyer & Blair Ltd Address: Postal: Tel No: Fax No: +254 2 227803 +254 2 218633
Francis Thuo & Partners Ltd Address: International House, 13th Floor Postal: P O Box 46524 Nairobi Tel No: +254 2 226531 Fax No: +254 2 228498
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A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / K E N YA
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A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / K E N YA
Hak Securities Ltd. Address: Rehani House, 4th Floor Postal: P O Box 67815 Nairobi Tel.: +254 2 331891/220517 Fax: +254 2 215554 Discount Securities Address: Phoenix House Postal: P O Box 57746 Nairobi Tel.: +254 2 219538/219538/244468 Fax: +254 2 336553 Faida Securities Address: Postal: Tel.: Fax:
Union Towers, 5th Floor Moi Avenue P O Box 40100 Nairobi +254 2 243811/2/3 +254 2 243814
MALAWI
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
163 Lilongwe English (official), Chichewa (official), other languages important regionally 10,701,824 1.39% (2002 est.) 36.59 58.00% NA Limestone, arable land, hydropower, unexploited deposits of uranium, coal, and bauxite $7 billion (PPP) 1.70% (2001 est.) $660 (PPP 2001 est.) 28.60% (2001 est.) 825 million kWh (2000) $415.5 million South Africa 18%, Germany 13%, US 13%, UK 10%, Japan 7%, Netherlands 3% (2000) $463.6 million South Africa 40%, UK 11%, Zimbabwe 7%, Japan 5%, Germany 2%, US 1.8%, Zambia (2000) $490million $523 million, including capital expenditures of $NA (FY99/00 est.) Malawian kwacha (MWK) $2.8 billion (2001 est.) Malawian kwachas per US dollar - 67.3111 (December 2001), 72.1973 (2001), 59.5438 (2000), 44.0881 (1999), 31.0727 (1998), 16.4442 (1997) 38,000 (1999) 44 (2001)
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A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / M A L AW I
58
A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / M A L AW I
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) MSE Domestic Share Index (Nov 1996 =100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 -
1993 -
1994 -
1995 -
1996 15 0 112.50 1
Monthly closing index values 2002 MSE Domestic Share Index (Jun 1996 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 300.11
FEB 300.33
MAR 300.82
APR 300.98
MAY 299.09
JUN 284.53
JUL 282.24
AUG 278.01
SEP 251.46
OCT 246.18
NOV 231.11
DEC 233.43
Macroeconomic Indicators (Annual Averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (3m T-Bill) % Exchange Rate v. USD
2002e 2 19 41 90
2003f 3 23 55 130
MSE Domestic Share Index (US$) Key points Drought, famine and lack of donor funding to pressure economy in near term Outlook for tobacco is more favourable Tourism is also picking up Real interest rates in excess of 20% to help reduce inflation But Zimbabwe devaluation would be a big risk for the MWK
Source: Standard Chartered Bank 130
110
90
70 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price (Mk) 6.30 3.90 13.00 6.40 1.85 2.50 4.45 1.90
Price to earnings (x) 5.0 4.6 2.6 3.6 5.8 1.5 5.5 1.9 4.2
Dividend yield (%) 10.0 6.2 14.5 12.5 20.7 24.0 9.0 17.9 11.0
Price to book (x) 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 1.0
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A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / M A L AW I
60
A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / M A L AW I
MARKET OVERVIEW
The Malawi economy posted another poor performance Malawi has been languishing from the El Nio associated drought. The severe drought has resulted in considerable social and economic problems, namely a food crisis and an estimated economic loss of US$150 to US$180 million. Relations with donors become strained as government has failed to bring the fiscal deficit in check. Higher food prices resulted in demand push inflation coupled with negative economic growth and a depreciation of the Kwacha to the US$ was felt in the stock market. The market dropped 36% in US$ terms, with most stock prices falling on the back of deteriorating economic fundamentals. Resumption of IMF funding and better weather conditions should bode well for the Malawi stock market in the future.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Malawi Stock Exchange Address: Old Reserve Bank Building, Victoria Avenue Postal: P/Bag 270, Blantyre, Malawi Tel: +265 1 624 233 Fax: +265 1 623 636 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.mse.co.mw STOCKBROKERS Stockbrokers Malawi Limited Address: Ground Floor, Able House Cnr. Hannover Ave./Chilembwe Rd Postal: P O Box 31180 Chichiri, Blantyre Tel: +265 622 803 Fax: +265 624 353 NICORP Securities Limited Address: 14 Victoria Avenue, Postal: P.O. Box 2364, Blantyre, Malawi Tel: +265 1 621 422 Fax: +265 1 624 494 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.nicorpsec.com
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A f r i c a n S t o c k M a r k e t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / M A L AW I
62
MAURITIUS
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP (PPP) GDP - real growth rate (%) (2001 est.) GDP - per capita (PPP 2001 est.) Inflation rate (consumer prices) (%) (2001 est.) Electricity - production ( kWh) Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
67 Port Louis English, French, Creole, Hindi, Urdu, Hakka, Bhojpuri 1,200,206 0.86% 71.53 82.90% 8.6% Arable land, fish $12.9 billion 5.20% $10,800 4.20% 1.285 billion kWh $1.6 billion UK 25.8%, France 20.8%, US 16.0%, South Africa 10.9%, Germany, Italy $2 billion South Africa 20.0%, France 19.0%, India 9.0%, Hong Kong 5.2%, UK $1.1billion $1.2 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA Mauritian rupee (MUR) $2.3 billion Mauritian rupees per US dollar - 30.345 (January 2002), 29.129 (2001), 26.250 (2000), 25.186 (1999), 22.993 (1998), 21.057 (1997) 245,000 5
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) SEMDEX Index (Jul 1989 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
Monthly closing index values 2002 SEMDEX Index (Jul 1989 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 373.88
FEB 372.95
MAR 373.43
APR 353.64
MAY 354.03
JUN 358.65
JUL 365.69
AUG 375.23
SEP 379.73
OCT 379.02
NOV 385.73
DEC 399.26
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % Exchange Rate v. USD
2003f 6 5.4 9 32
2004f 5.2 5 9 33
SEMDEX Index (US$) Key points Heavy investment in IT and infrastructure will lead to economic recovery Longer-term challenges remain in place Liberalisation of international trade in textiles threatens Other sugar producers lobby against preferences Fiscal problems cast doubt on sustainability of offshore sector EUR strength to provide some respite for MUR
Source: Standard Chartered Bank 120
110
100 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
63
64
Local share price (R) 37.00 91.00 11.60 45.50 45.00 81.00 45.00 12.60 17.00 17.90
Price to earnings (x) 8.8 4.6 4.4 7.5 2.3 5.9 7.7 2.5 8.5 6.9 6.0
Dividend yield (%) 6.8 6.5 8.6 9.6 34.6 7.4 11.6 11.9 9.7 6.7 10.8
Price to book (x) 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 14.8 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6
65
66
MARKET OVERVIEW
Lower GDP growth estimates trigger a small decline in the market Weak US and Euro zone markets have hurt the Export Processing Zone (EPZ) sector and local private consumption. A number of Mauritian companies had shifted their EPZ facilities to Madagascar which offers lower labour costs. Unfortunately Political upheaval in Madagascar disrupted operations and left a number of banks uneasy over lendings routed to those operations. However, it is now emerging that the impact on the banking sector may not be as bad as initially feared. In 2002, the local stock market performed very well on the back of weaker economic fundamentals locally and globally registering a return of 21% in US dollar terms (17% local).Towards the end of 2002, it became apparent that the sugar sector would have a weaker recovery than earlier expected following cyclone Dina. However, tourism has displayed resilience in the wake of the US attacks and bombings of tourist spots in Bali and Kenya. Siginificant new investments have delivered additional capacity particularly in the high end of the market, while tourist arrivals have remained strong increasing 3% over the previous year. The outlook for the rest of the year remains positive supported by a set of excellent economic fundamentals. Mauritius has managed to diversify its economy over the past few years enabling it to better absorb external economic shocks.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Stock Exchange of Mauritius Contact: Mr. Sunil Benimadhu (Chief Executive) Address: 2nd. Floor, Les Cascades Building 33, Edith Cavell Street Port Louis Republic of Mauritius Tel: +230 212 9541 Fax: +230 208 8409 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.semdex.com STOCKBROKERS Asmo Securities & Investments Ltd. Address: 43, Sir William Newton Street Port Louis Tel.: +230 212 1269/0697 Fax: +230 208 8508 E-mail: [email protected] Associated Brokers Ltd. Address: 10, Sir William Newton Street Port Louis Tel.: +230 212 3038 Fax.: +230 212 6690 E-mail: [email protected] Capital Markets Brokers Ltd. Address: 3rd Floor, Moorgate House 29, Sir William Newton Street Port Louis Tel.: +230 212 1336 Fax: +230 212 8238 E-mail: [email protected] Campagnie des Agents de Change Ltee Address: 9th Floor, Stratton Court Poudriere Street Port Louis Tel.: Fax: E-mail: First Brokers Ltd. Address: +230 212 2578/0454 +230 208 3455 [email protected]
4th Floor, Li Wan Po Building 12, Remy Ollier Street Port Louis +230 211 0582/228 0583 +230 211 0584 [email protected]
General Brokerage Ltd. Address: 8th Floor, Les Cascade Building 33, Bis Edith Cavell Street Port Louis Tel.: +230 212 9863/9864 Fax: +230 212 9867 E-mail: [email protected],mu
67
68
123 Rabat Arabic (official), Berber dialects, French often the language of business, government, and diplomacy 31,167,783 (July 2002 est.) 1.68% (2002 est.) 69.73 43.70% 23% (1999 est.) Phosphates, iron ore, manganese, lead, zinc, fish, salt $112 billion (PPP) 5% (2001 est.) $3,700 (PPP 2001 est.) 1% (2001 est.) 14.243 billion kWh (2000) $8.2 billion France 26%, Spain 10%, UK 8%, Italy 6%, Germany 5%, India 5%, US 5% (2000) $12.4 billion France 25%, Spain 11%, Germany 6%, Italy 6%, UK 5%, US 5% (2000) $13.8billion $14.6 billion, including capital expenditures of $2.1 billion (2001 est.) Moroccan dirham (MAD) $19 billion (2001 est.) Moroccan dirhams per US dollar - 11.584 (January 2002), 11.303 (2001), 10.626 (2000), 9.804 (1999), 9.604 (1998), 9.527 (1997) 1.391 million (1998) 67 (2001)
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) Morocco All Share Index (Dec 1991 = 1000) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
Monthly Closing index Values 2002 Morocco All Share Index (Dec 1991 = 1000)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 3444.85
FEB 3407.59
MAR 3406.95
APR 3293.35
MAY 3207.72
JUN 3135.26
JUL 2989.54
AUG 3058.49
SEP 2941.26
OCT 2890.88
NOV 2951.63
DEC 2980.44
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % T bill Exchange Rate v. USD
MASI (US$) Key points Prospects for growth in the medium term are promising although there is lack of progress on privatisation The dirham has strengthened sharply against the euro due to its significant euro weighting, prompting concerns of a drop in competitiveness.
100
MASI (Dirham)
90
80 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
69
70
Local share price (DH) 740.00 685.00 620.00 380.00 788.00 1,140.00 615.00 497.00 369.00 910.00
Price to earnings (x) 7.5 12.1 11.6 5.7 24.2 19.5 11.7 20.2 -6.0 9.5 11.7
Dividend yield (%) 2.7 3.9 3.5 3.9 2.9 4.4 3.3 3.0 2.7 5.5 3.5
Price to book (x) 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 2.8 2.3 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6
Market Capitalisation (US$mn) 1,240 871 649 579 546 521 381 364 295 247 5,694
Bourse de Casablanca
www.casablanca-bourse.com Conseil Deontologique des Valeurs Mobilieres. (CDVM) Bank Al-Maghrib NA GMT Manual, transaction by transaction Stocks, government bonds and other securities T+3 BMCE Bank, ABN Amro, Citibank, HSBC, No restrictions First market, new market None Automated trading system Maroclear Monday to Friday 8:30 to 12:30 Dividends: 0%; Interest: 10%; Capital gains: 0% Half year and full audited annual accounts. International Accounting and Auditing Standards The Casablanca Stock Exchange was founded in 1929 by several banks. Recent developments include the privatisation of the exchange in 1995 and the introduction of computerised trading in 1998.
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72
MARKET OVERVIEW
The Moroccan stock market posted negative returns in 2002 The Moroccan economy relies heavily on trade with Europe. The important tourism sector was negatively affected by the tensions in the Middle East, frustrating the governments ambitions to use tourism as a catalyst for economic growth. The heavy weighting of the euro in the local unit (dirham) resulted in the appreciation of the dirham significantly to the US$ thanks to the euros rally. Agricultural output increased in 2002 as weather conditions improved, boosting exports in a period of economic slowdown. Negative equity market returns of 14% in local currency terms and 5% in US$ terms where posted in 2002.The Moroccan stock market is consolidating after its heady performance seen in the late 1990s. Governments plans for economic reform and improved global economic growth should augur well for the Moroccan economy.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Bourse de Casablanca Address: Angle Avenue des Forces Armes Royales et Rue Arrachid Mohamed, Casablanca, MAROC Tl: +212 22 452 626/27 Fax: +212 22 452 625 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.casablanca-bourse.com STOCKBROKERS ATTIJARI INTERMEDIATION Contact: M. Nour-Eddine Jarmouni Address: 15 bis bd Moulay Youssef Casablanca - Maroc Tl: +212 22 491 485 / 293 991 Fax: +212 22 202 515 / 476 432 Website: www.bcm.co.ma BMCI BOURSE Contact: Address: M.Yahia El Halfa 47, angle Rues Allal Benabdellah et Mohamed Fakir 3me tage Casablanca - Maroc +212 22 203 751 / 202 412 +212 22 202 891 www.bmcinet.com CREDIT DU MAROC CAPITAL Contact: M. Rachid Ellakhdi Address: 8, rue Ibnou Hilal Casablanca - Maroc Tl: +212 22 940 744 Fax: +212 22 940 766 Website: www.cdmcnet.co.ma EUROBOURSE Contact: Address:
Tl: Fax: Website: CFG MARCHES Contact: Address: Tl: Fax: Website:
Mr. Hicham Boutaleb 5-7 rue Ibn Toufal, Quartier Palmier Casablanca - Maroc +212 22 250 101 +212 22 981 112 www.cfgmorocco.com
M. Nabil Ahabchane Avenue des FAR, Complexe commercial des Habous 5me tage. Casablanca - Maroc +212 22 541 554 +212 22 541 446 [email protected] www.eurobourse.ma
MAGHREB FINANCE Contact: Mr. Simohamed Baayou Address: 3me tage Immeuble Saturne 201, Bd Zerktouni - Casablanca Tl: +212 22 959 900 Fax: +212 22 362 369 Website: www.magfin.com BMCE CAPITAL BOURSE Contact: Mr. Majid Benjelloun Address: BMCE Sige, Tour BEMCOM Rond-point Hassan II, 8me t. Casablanca Tl: +212 22 481 001 Fax: +212 22 480 952 / 481 068
Mrs. Saloua LAASSEL HAJJI 181, Bd Massira Al Khadra, Casablanca - Maroc +212 22 235 924 +212 22 235 950 / 250 578 [email protected]
UPLINE SECURITIES Contact: Mrs. Sanaa Bennouna Address: 41/43 Ange Bd d'Anfa et Rue de Nivre Casablanca Tl: +212 22 475 124 / 221 Fax: +212 22 474 603/614 Website: www.upline.co.ma WAFABOURSE Contact: Address: Tl: Fax:
Mr. Abdelouahed Oussous 55 Boulevard Abdelmoumen Casablanca +212 22 439 840 +212 22 268 018 [email protected]
Mr. Idriss Bajeddoub 416, Rue Mustapha El Maani Casablanca - Maroc +212 22 545 050 / 209 524 +212 22 209 525
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74
NAMIBIA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
122 Windhoek English 7% (official) 1,820,916 1.19% (2002 est.) 38.97 38% 30% to 40%, including underemployment (1997 est.) Diamonds, copper, uranium, gold, lead, tin, lithium, cadmium, zinc, salt, vanadium, natural gas, hydropower, fish $8.1 billion (PPP) 4% (2001 est.) $4,500 (PPP 2001 est.) 8.80% (2001 est.) 30 million kWh (2000) $1.58 billion UK 43%, South Africa 26%, Spain 14%, France 8%, Japan (1998 est.) $1.71 billion South Africa 81%, US 4%, Germany 2% (1997 est.) $883million $950 million, including capital expenditures of $NA (1998) Namibian dollar (NAD); South African rand (ZAR) $217 million (2000 est.) Namibian dollars per US dollar - 11.58786 (January 2002), 8.60918 (2001), 6.93983 (2000), 6.10948 (1999), 5.52828 (1998), 4.60796 (1997) 110,200 (2000) 137 (2001)
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) NSX Local Companies Index (Jun 1995 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 21 0 3
1993 28 0 4
1994 201 18 8
Monthly closing index values 2002 NSX Local Companies Index (Jun 1995 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 58.00
FEB 58.20
MAR 57.00
APR 56.20
MAY 56.00
JUN 56.00
JUL 52.35
AUG 51.96
SEP 52.54
OCT 48.92
NOV 48.41
DEC 47.28
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % Exchange Rate v. USD
2004f NA NA 13 10.6
NSX Local Index (US$) Key points Inflation will remain relatively high in the short term and as a result the bank rate is expected to remain comparatively high.
110
100
90
80 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
75
76
Local share price (N$) 4.20 1.79 0.35 0.53 0.11 0.06 0.12 0.12
Price to earnings (x) 5.4 6.1 3.8 -0.1 13.8 -0.8 30.0 13.3 5.4
Price to book (x) 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.2
77
78
MARKET OVERVIEW
Positive US$ returns due to a weak dollar The Namibian stock market posted positive returns in US$ terms of 11% in 2002 thanks to an appreciation of the local currency. The Namibian dollar is pegged to the South African rand, which posted a dramatic turn around in late 2002. Returns in local terms were negative (-19%). Oryx Properties and dual listed Shoprite Holdings (a South African retailer agressively expanding into Africa) were listed in 2002. This demonstrates the increasing vivacity of the Namibian Stock Exchange. The Skorpion Zinc project and a new textile factory is expected to bolster economic growth and bring in foreign exchange in the future. The Namibian economy is heavily reliant on government expenditures which contributes approximately 20% of GDP.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Namibian Stock Exchange Contact: John Mandy (General Manager) Address: Shop 8, Kaiserkrone Centre, Post Street Mall, Windhoek Postal: PO Box 2401, Windhoek. Tel: +264 61 227 647 Fax: +264 61 248 531 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.nsx.com.na STOCKBROKERS HSBC Securities Namibia (Pty.) Ltd. Address: 100 Robert Mugabe Avenue Postal: P O Box 1272, Windhoek Tel.: +264 61 273 200 Fax: +264 61 232 513 E-mail: [email protected] Irwin, Jacobs, Greene (Pty.) Ltd. Address: 11th Floor, Sanlam Centre Independence Avenue Postal: P O Box 186, Windhoek Tel.: +264 61 238 899 Fax: +264 61 238 936 E-mail: [email protected] Simons Storm Securities Address: 152 Robert Mugabe Avenue, Postal: P O Box 3970, Windhoek Tel No: +264 61 254 194 Fax No: +264 61 254 193 E-mail: [email protected] Nedcor Securities Namibia (Pty.) Ltd. Address: 1st Floor, City Centre Building (West Wing) Levinson Arcade Postal: Tel.: Fax: E-mail: P O Box 27, Windhoek +264 61 256 666 +264 61 256 789 [email protected]
Investment House Namibia (Pty.) Ltd. Address: 8th Floor, Southern Life Building Post Street Mall Postal: P O Box 196, Windhoek Tel. +264 61 237 477 Fax: +264 61 227 321 E-mail: [email protected]
NIGERIA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
148 Abuja English (official), Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo (Ibo), Fulani 129,934,911 2.54% (2002 est.) 50.59 57.10% 28% (1992 est.) Natural gas, petroleum, tin, columbite, iron ore, coal, limestone, lead, zinc, arable land $105.9 billion (PPP) 3.50% (2001 est.) $840 (PPP 2001 est.) 14.90% (2001 est.) 15.9 billion kWh (2000) $20.3 billion US 46%, Spain 11%, India 6%, France 5%, Brazil (2000) $13.7 billion UK 11%, US 9%, France 9%, Germany 7%, China (2000) $3.4billion $3.6 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (2000 est.) naira (NGN) $32 billion (2000 est.) nairas per US dollar - 115 (January 2002), 101.697 (2000), 92.338 (1999), 21.886 (1998), 21.886 (1997) 500,000 (2000) 70 (2001)
79
80
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) NSE All Share Index (Jan 1984 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
2000
2001
2002
4,237 5,404 5,989 263 496 486 8111.00 10963.10 12059.21 195 194 195
Monthly closing index values 2002 NSE All Share Index (Jan 1984 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC 12059.21
10649.96 10581.98 11214.38 11399.05 11486.70 12440.65 12458.23 12327.91 11811.55 11451.51 11622.74
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (3m T-Bill) % Exchange Rate v. USD
NSE All Share Index (US$) Key points Longer term, Nigeria remains vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices Steady depreciation of the naira is foreseen Loan rates are capped for now, but tight monetary policy will be re-introduced
120
110
100
90 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price (N) 30.99 21.79 21.50 87.00 44.00 31.20 34.50 13.85 69.00 6.98
Price to earnings (x) 22.1 9.6 8.2 12.7 7.5 7.9 16.2 24.3 10.8 8.6 14.3
Dividend yield (%) 7.3 6.0 5.8 6.3 10.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 8.7 2.1 6.2
Price to book (x) 4.7 2.9 1.7 24.6 2.5 2.5 8.3 2.2 8.4 3.2 5.7
Market Capitalisation (US$mn) 897 424 414 282 238 233 211 182 157 118 3,155
81
82
MARKET OVERVIEW
Up coming elections critical to market prospects The countrys economy has suffered from difficult implementation of government policy following disagreements between the executive and the legislature arms of government. Following the disagreement with the IMF, the government has been unable to confine spending within the limits of the budget. Upcoming April elections could conspire to keep inflation high probably above an annual 20% rate. The outlook for economic growth is positive supported by higher production levels and prices of crude oil and more significantly natural gas, which is not subject to OPEC quotas. On the back of strong crude prices in early 2002, the market was buoyant and experienced a rally which was later punctured mid year following fears of economic weakness in world markets. This was further complicated by uncertainties associated with presidential elections slated for April 2003. The market has enjoyed a good run since the democratic election of President Obasanjo, with market valuations now at the top end amongst African exchanges. This has heralded a listing boom with a number of capital raisings in 2002 estimated at US$300 million, particularly in the banking sector as banks seek to shore up their capital bases and modernise IT systems. Looking ahead into 2003, the key factor will be the presidential elections. The domestic economy is anticipated to be active as new capacity comes on-stream and corporate earnings increase from this year. This in balance should give the stock market upward momentum.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Nigerian Stock Exchange Address: 8th, 9th, & 11th Floors, Stock Exchange House 2/4 Customs Street, Postal: P.O. Box 2457, Lagos, Nigeria Tel: +234 1 266 0287/0305/0335 Fax: +234 1 266 8724/8281 Email: [email protected] Website: www.nigerianstockexchange.com STOCKBROKERS Securities Transactions and Trust Co. (Nig) Ltd. Address: Foreshore Towers, 8th Floor 2A Osborne Road Postal: P O Box 51045 Falomo, Ikoyi, Lagos Tel No: +234 1 269 3826/0861/4005 Fax No: +243 1 68 9038 Magnartis Finance & Investment Ltd Address: 16 Boyle Street, Onikan Postal: P O Box 54720 Falomo, Ikoyi, Lagos Tel No: +234 1 263 7452/7349 Fax No: +234 1 263 7460 Benham Management Ltd Address: 16 Boyle Street Onikan, Lagos Tel No: +234 1 263 7349 Fax No: +234 1 263 7460 Denham Management Limited Address: New Africa House, 31 Marina, Lagos, Nigeria Tel: +234 1 264 4641/266 4445 Fax: +234 1 266 1763 Email: [email protected]
83
84
SOUTH AFRICA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
107 Pretoria; Cape Town is the legislative center and Bloemfontein the judicial center Afrikaans, English, Ndebele, Pedi, Sotho, Swazi, Tsonga, Tswana, Venda, Xhosa, Zulu (all official) 43,647,658 0.02% (2002 est.) 45.43 85% 37% (2001 est.) Gold, chromium, antimony, coal, iron ore, manganese, nickel, phosphates, tin, uranium, gem diamonds, platinum, copper, vanadium, salt, natural gas $412 billion (PPP) 2.60% (2001 est.) $9,400 (PPP 2001 est.) 5.80% (2001 est.) 194.383 billion kWh (2000) $32.3 billion EU 33%, US 20%, Japan 6%, Mozambique 2.5% (2001 est.) $28.1 billion EU 41%, US 11.4%, Saudi Arabia 7.3%, Japan 7% (2001 est.) $22.6billion $24.7 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA billion (FY02/03) rand (ZAR) $25.5 billion (2001 est.) rand per US dollar - 11.58786 (January 2002), 8.60918 (2001), 6.93983 (2000), 6.10948 (1999), 5.52828 (1998), 4.60796 (1997) more than 5 million (2001) 740 (2001)
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) JSE All Share Index Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
2000
2001
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL 9239.02
AUG 9677.26
SEP 9465.33
OCT 9376.23
NOV 9563.74
DEC 9358.90
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (Repo) % Exchange Rate v. USD
JSE All Share Index (US$) Key points Annual growth to pick-up, but it will remain short of the 6% Predictions of El Nino weather pose a near term risk The rand will remain vulnerable to emerging market crises in the near term Longer term, progress in privatisation and higher reserves will make the currency more stable
Source: Standard Chartered Bank
120
100
80 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
85
86
Local share price (R) 128.21 45.59 16.15 105.00 316.82 60.63 120.30 12.07 30.15 7.33
Price to earnings (x) 6.2 18.1 11.6 9.4 8.6 15.6 16.6 9.6 8.7 11.1 11.2
Dividend yield (%) 4.1 3.1 1.7 4.3 7.9 4.4 2.6 6.7 3.6 3.9 4.0
Price to book (x) 1.5 1.0 1.1 3.2 5.4 3.0 8.0 1.4 1.5 2.4 2.5
Market Capitalisation (US$mn) 21,751 12,996 9,736 8,101 7,860 6,994 6,523 5,273 4,631 4,610 88,474
87
88
MARKET OVERVIEW
Resilient stock market performance The South African rand posted a significant turnaround towards the end of 2002, resulting in the rand going from one of the worst to one of the best performing currencies in the world. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) tightened its monetary policy in an attempt to maintain inflation at its 3-6% target range (which had no significant impact on economic growth). In 2002, the rands appreciation was partially responsible for the 10% decline in the equity market in local currency terms and a 24% increase in US dollar terms. Unlike most other African equities, many South African blue chips have a strong positive correlation with global equity markets. As a result of South African blue chip companies integration with the global economy, their earnings were negatively affected by the global economic downturn. Banking stocks did not live up to expectations as the higher interest rate environment slowed credit growth. Sentiment towards smaller banks turned negative as they suffered a confidence crisis following the failure of Saambou Bank and a run on deposits. In the case of BOE Bank the government took the unusual step of guaranteeing deposits in a move seen as placating nervous depositors. BOE was later bought by Nedcor in a merger that created South Africas largest banking group. A number of other smaller banks gave up their banking licences and exited the industry. This extended the consolidation process of the banking industry around four large banking groups. South Africas international debt rating was upgraded by Standard & Poors towards the end of 2002, which should be seen as an approval of governments fiscal and monetary policies. South Africa is seen as one of the best run emerging economies, together with efficiently managed world-class companies. As a result, one could anticipate that foreign direct investors and portfolio investors may use South Africa as a springboard into Africa. In 2002, GDP growth was unexpectedly strong but fell short of the levels necessary to alleviate poverty. Greater economic growth levels will be necessary for government to achieve its goals of poverty eradication and improved income distribution.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE JSE Securities Exchange Address: One Exchange Square, Gwen Lane, Sandown, 2196 Postal: Private Bag X991174, Sandton, 2146, Republic of South Africa Tel: +27 11 520 7777 Email: [email protected] Website: www.jse.co.za STOCKBROKERS African Harvest Securities (Pty) Ltd Address: African Harvest House Freestone Park 135 Patricia Road Sandown 2196 Postal: P O Box 653225 BENMORE 2010 Tel: +27 11 263 9500 Fax: +27 11 784 2550 Barnard Jacobs Mellet Securities (Pty) Ltd Address: Barnard Mellet House 2nd Floor 5 Sturdee Avenue ROSEBANK 2196 Postal P O Box 62200 MARSHALLTOWN 2107 Tel: +27 11 283 0300 Fax: +27 11 283 0303 Brait Securities (Pty) Ltd Address: 9 Fricker Road ILLOVO JOHANNESBURG 2196 Postal: Private Bag X1 NORTHLANDS 2116 Tel: +27 11 507 1930 Fax: +27 11 268 5478 Postal: LOWER HOUGHTON JOHANNESBURG 2198 Postnet Suite 164 Private Bag X2600 HOUGHTON 2041 +27 11 483 0855 +27 11 483 0867
Tel: Fax:
Cazenove South Africa (Pty) Ltd Address: 1st Floor Moorgate, Dunkeld Park 6 North Road DUNKELD WEST 2196 Postal: P O Box 412468 CRAIGHALL 2024 Tel: +27 11 280 7900 Fax: +27 11 325 8040 Corpcapital Securities (Pty) Limited Address: 2 Arnold Raod ROSEBANK 2196
89
90
SWAZILAND
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
125 Mbabane; Lobamba is the royal and legislative capital English (official, government business conducted in English), siSwati (official) 1,123,605 1.63% (2002 est.) 37 78.30% 34% (2000 est.) Asbestos, coal, clay, cassiterite, hydropower, forests, small gold and diamond deposits, quarry stone, and talc $4.6 billion (PPP) 2.50% (2001 est.) $4,200 (PPP 2001 est.) 7.50% (2001 est.) 362 million kWh (2000) $702 million South Africa 72%, EU 12%, UK 6%, Mozambique 4%, US 4% (1999) $850 million South Africa 89%, EU 5%, Japan 2%, Singapore 2% (2000) $448million $506.9 million, including capital expenditures of $147 million (FY01/02) lilangeni (SZL) $336 million (2001 est.) emalangeni per US dollar - 11.5808 (January 2002), 8.4933 (2001), 6.9056 (2000), 6.1087 (1999), 5.4807 (1998), 4.6032 (1997); note - the Swazi lilangeni is at par with the South African rand; emalangeni is the plural form of lilangeni 38,500 (2001) 18 (2001)
91
Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / S WA Z I L A N D
92
Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / S WA Z I L A N D
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) SSX All Share Index (Jul 1990 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1998 85 0 130.25 5
1999 95 0 147.00 7
2000 73 0 138.04 6
Monthly Closing Index Values 2002 SSX All Share Index (Jul 1990 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 178.52
FEB 178.57
MAR 178.57
APR 178.57
MAY 178.57
JUN 178.77
JUL 178.77
AUG 178.77
SEP 165.78
OCT 165.78
NOV 165.93
DEC 165.93
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % (TBill Yields) Exchange Rate v. USD
2004f NA NA NA NA
2005f NA NA NA NA
Key points Swaziland has benefited from the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), with increased exports especially in textiles. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy and recent harvests have been poor due to erratic weather conditions High rate of unemployment and HIV Aids will place a strain on future economic growth.
Source: Liquid Africa
110
100
90
93
Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / S WA Z I L A N D
94
Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / S WA Z I L A N D
MARKET OVERVIEW
Positive lilangeni performance on the back of a weak dollar A 12% return in US$ terms was solely due to appreciation of the rand to the dollar, as the lilangeni is pegged to the South African rand. Ignoring the benefits of the currency appreciation, the market was rather uninspiring, posting negative returns of 19% in local currency terms. The medium term downward trend in economic growth is partially due to the loss of foreign investment to South Africa, the high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, unemployment and adverse weather conditions hampering the agricultural sector (which accounts for approximately 9% of GDP). Exports of apparel and textiles to the US have grown dramatically under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) bringing in much needed foreign exchange into the country. AGOA provides preferential trade access to the United States for African products. Swaziland is highly dependant on exports to South Africa and future growth is dependant on the economic well being of South Africa.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Swaziland Stock Exchange Address: c/o Capital Markets Development Unit 1st Floor Imfumbe Building, Central Bank of Swaziland Warner Street, Mbabane Postal: P.O. Box 546 Mbabane, Swaziland. Tel: +268 404 9491/6748/9492/3221 Fax: +268 404 9493 E-mail: [email protected] STOCKBROKERS Swaziland Stockbrokers Ltd Address: Suite 205, Dhlanubeka House Walker Street Postal: P O Box 2818 Mbabane Tel No: +268 404 6163 Fax No: +268 404 4132 African Alliance Address: 1st Floor, Asakhe House Cnr. Alister Miller & Walker Streets Mbabane +268 404 8735 + 268 404 8747
Tel.: Fax:
95
Af r i c a n S t o c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / S WA Z I L A N D
96
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / TA N Z A N I A
TANZANIA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
151 Dar es Salaam Kiswahili or Swahili (official), English (official, primary language) 37,187,939 2.60% (2002 est.) 51.7 67.80% NA Hydropower, tin, phosphates, iron ore, coal, diamonds, gemstones, gold, natural gas, nickel $22.1 billion (PPP) 5% (2001 est.) $610 (PPP 2001 est.) 5% (2001 est.) 2.765 billion kWh (2000) $827 million UK 22.0%, India 14.8%, Germany 9.9%, Netherlands 6.9% (2000) $1.55 billion South Africa 11.5%, Japan 9.3%, UK 7.0%, Australia 6.2% (2000) $1.01billion $1.38 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (FY00/01 est.) Tanzanian shilling (TZS) $6.8 billion (2000 est.) Tanzanian shillings per US dollar - 924.70 (January 2002), 876.41 (2001), 800.41 (2000), 744.76 (1999), 664.67 (1998), 612.12 (1997) 127,000 (1998) 125 (2001)
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) LA All Share Index (Dec 2001 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 -
1993 -
1994 -
1995 -
1996 -
1997 -
1998 236 0 2
1999 181 7 4
2000 233 40 4
Monthly closing index values 2002 LA All Share Index (Dec 2001 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 118.22
FEB 126.13
MAR 137.30
APR 150.42
MAY 149.21
JUN 148.75
JUL 134.12
AUG 135.05
SEP 141.65
OCT 159.35
NOV 155.73
DEC 151.86
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % Exchange Rate v. USD
LA All Share Index (US$) Key points High rates of growth predicted as Tanzania sees gains in mining and tourism But soft commodity prices are vulnerable More progress expected with privatisation and the establishment of an export processing zone Inflation will remain low in the coming years The Tanzanian shilling (TZS) will continue to depreciate With the peace deal in Zanzibar, Tanzania's political environment has improved
Source: Standard Chartered Bank 160
140
120
100 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
97
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / TA N Z A N I A
98
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / TA N Z A N I A
99
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / TA N Z A N I A
100
Af r i c a n Sto c k M a r ke t s H a n d b o o k - 2 0 0 3 / TA N Z A N I A
MARKET OVERVIEW
Stellar stock market performance Spectacular returns in both US dollar terms (40%) and local currency terms (52%) has made the Tanzanian stock market the best performing market in Africa. It is difficult to find a share performing poorly in the Dar es Salam Stock Exchange. Such significant returns are due to the generally high GDP growth rates since 1998, decreasing inflation (from approximately 20% in the mid 90s to an estimated 5.5% in 2002) and decreasing interest rates. Governments observance of the IMFs restructuring plan has resulted in more sensible monetary and fiscal policies. Unfortunately, the Tanzanian stock exchange is currently restricted to local investor participation. Looking forward, the government should look towards diversifying the economy away from its reliance on agriculture (almost 50% of GDP) and speeding up economic growth to alleviate poverty.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Dar-es-Salaam Stock Exchange Address: Twiga Building, 4th Floor Samora Avenue Postal: P.O. Box 70081 Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania Tel: +255 21 213 5779 Fax: +255 21 213 3849 E-Mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.darstockexchange.com STOCKBROKERS Tanzania Securities Limited, Contact: Mr. L.T. Urasa Address: NIC Life House Building, 6th Floor, Ohio Street, Dar es Salaam Postal: P.O. Box 2130, Dar-es-Salaam. Tel: +255 21 211 2807 Fax: +255 21 211 2809/0398 E-mail: [email protected] Rasilimali Limited Contacts: Mr. Gabinus Maganga, Mr. Arphaxad Masambu Address: NBC Investment House, Samora Avenue. Postal: P.O. Box 9373 Dar-es-Salaam. Tel: +255 21 211 1708/13 Fax: +255 21 212 2883 E-mail: [email protected] Solomon & Co. Limited, Contact: Mr. Jeremiah Solomon Address: Extelcoms House, Samora Avenue. Postal: P.O. Box 75777, Dar-es-Salaam. Tel: +255 21 211 2874 / 213 1969 / 2124495 Fax: +255 21 213 1969 E-mail: [email protected] Orbit Securities Co. Limited Contacts: Mr. Laurean R. Malauri, Mr. Gration Kamugisha Address: 3rd Floor, Twiga House, Samora Avenue. Postal: P.O. Box 31831 Dar-es-Salaam. Tel: +255 21 211 1758 Fax: +255 21 211 3067 E-mail: [email protected] Core Securities Limited, Contacts: Mr. George Fumbuka, Mr. Charles Bupamba Address: Ground Floor, Twiga House, Samora Avenue Postal: P.O. Box 23227, Dar-es-Salaam. Tel: +255 21 212 3103 Fax: +255 21 212 2562 E-mail: [email protected] Vertex International Securities Limited Contact: Mr. Nazir Karamagi Address: Annex Building - Zambia High Commission, Sokoine Drive/Ohio Street Postal: P.O. Box 13412, Dar es Salaam. Tel: +255 21 211 6383 Fax: +255 21 211 0387 E-mail: [email protected]
TUNISIA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
97 Tunis Arabic (official and one of the languages of commerce), French (commerce) 9,815,644 (July 2002 est.) 1.12% (2002 est.) 74.16 66.70% 15.6% (2000 est.) Petroleum, phosphates, iron ore, lead, zinc, salt $64.5 billion (PPP) 4.80% (2001 est.) $6,600 (PPP 2001 est.) 2.70% (2001 est.) 10.3 billion kWh (2000) $6.6 billion France 28%, Italy 21%, Germany 14%, Belgium 6%, Libya (2000) $8.9 billion France 30%, Italy 21%, Germany 11%, Spain 4%, Belgium (2000) $5.7billion $6.3 billion, including capital expenditures of $1.5 billion (2001 est.) Tunisian dinar (TND) $11.5 billion (2001 est.) Tunisian dinars per US dollar - 1.44 (January 2002), 1.3753 (2001), 1.3707 (2000), 1.1862 (1999), 1.1387 (1998), 1.1059 (1997) 654,000 (1997) 30 (2001)
101
102
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) TUNINDEX Index (Dec 1997 = 1000) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 814 33 17
1993 956 46 19
Monthly closing index values 2002 TUNINDEX Index (Dec 1997 = 1000)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN
FEB
MAR 1255.45
APR 1191.65
MAY 1192.59
JUN 1193.38
JUL 1182.01
AUG 1141.89
SEP 1197.33
OCT 1136.38
NOV 1125.22
DEC 1114.07
1279.74 1275.61
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates % Exchange Rate v. USD
2004f 5 3 7 1.38
2005f 5 3 7 1.4
TUNINDEX Index (US$) Key points Despite government optimism on the prospects for the economy, lagging tourism will dent growth. Inflation will remain relatively subdued as money supply growth is largely in line with nominal GDP growth
100
93
86 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price (TD) 40.08 8.89 20.00 51.00 8.66 18.00 19.78 7.96 11.64 14.00
Price to earnings (x) 17.5 4.8 6.0 7.1 10.7 6.9 5.1 5.6 5.0 6.5 8.3
Dividend yield (%) 3.1 7.3 7.5 4.7 5.8 5.0 6.6 7.5 8.6 5.7 6.0
Price to book (x) 4.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.9 1.4
103
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Bourse de Tunis
www.bvmt.com.tn Conseil du March Financier Banque Centrale de Tunisie Na GMT + 1 Automatically Banque Centrale de Tunisie T+5 NA Cap on ownership (49.9% in general) Ordinary Shares, Unit Trusts, Corporate Bonds , Government Bonds Exchange control is the responsibilityof the central bank Fully electronic on a continuous or fixed quoting system depending on company size Sticodevam Ltd Monday - Friday 10:30AM - 12:30PM Dividends: 0%; Interest: 0%; Capital gains: 0% Annual and semi-annual audited financial results The exchange was established in 1969 and consequently privatised in 1994. An electronic trading system was adopted in 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Poor stock market performance in 2002 The Tunisian stock market experienced a bad year in 2002, continuing the negative trend since 2001. The TUNINDEX showed a disappointing 12% decline in 2002 (in local currency terms) and a 7% decline in US $. The economic downturn in the European Union (EU) had a detrimental effect on the Tunisian economy given its increasing reliance on trade with the EU. The banking sector was affected by the economic slump, which resulted in lower credit extension and a number of high profile defaults on loans. The Tunisian economy was also hampered by the repercussions of 11 September 2001 events, which weighed down on the tourism sector. The downstream effects of this where felt in Socit Frigorifique et Brasserie (the markets largest stock by capitalisation) due to reduced tourist alcoholic consumption. TunisAir was also affected by the reduction in tourist arrivals, which resulted in reduced earnings. The Tunisian economy was also hindered by the drought, forcing government to import basic produce. Looking ahead, the Tunisian economy is well poised to capitalise from increased trade with the EU, which will bolster earnings of listed companies.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Bourse de Tunis Address: Centre Babel, Escalier E Montplaisir Tunis, Belvedere 1002 Tunisia Tel: +216 71 786 912 Fax: +216 71 789 189 E-Mail: [email protected] Website: www.bvmt.com.tn STOCKBROKERS Abdallah DAY Address: Centre Babel bloc C 1er Etage, MontPlaisir - 1002 Tunis Tl: +216 71 845 931 / 841 709 Fax: +216 71 843 613 Arab Financial Consultants Address: 4.Rue 7036 Menzah IV Tl: +216 71 238 019 / 231 938 / 754 720 Fax: +216 71 234 672 Amen Invest Address: Tl: Fax: BDET-CAPITALIS Address: Tl: Fax: Best Invest Address: Tl: Fax: BNA-Capitaux Address: Tl: Fax: Website: 150, Av, de la Libert - 1002 Tunis +216 71 795 215/ 790 512 +216 71 786 663 COFIB Capital FINANCE Address: 51, Avenue Jugurtha Mutuelleville - 1002 Tunis Tl: +216 71 846 225 / 840 253 Fax: +216 71 848 517 / 843 778 Website: www.capfinance.com.tn Compagnie Gestin et Finance Address: Centre Babel bloc E 1er Etage, MontPlaisir - 1002 Tunis Tl: +216 71 788 870 / 280 / 782 606 Fax: +216 71 798 314 Companie Gnrale d'Investissement Address: 16 Avenue Jean Jaurs - 1000 -Tunis Tl: +216 71 252 024 Fax: +216 71 252 044 Financire de Placement et de Gestion Address: 70/72, Av Habib Bourguiba - 1000 Tunis Tl: +216 71 351 398 Fax: +216 71 240 736
34, Rue Hdi KARRAY - 1004 El Menzeh IV +216 71 717 510 / 719 999 / 718 000 +216 71 718 450
88, Av Hdi CHAKER 1er Etage - 1002 Tunis +216 71 845 766 +216 71 847 561
12 Bis, Rue Kheireddine Pacha -1002 Tunis +216 71 841 966 +216 71 842 885 www.bnacapitaux.com.tn
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Mohamed Abdelwaheb Chrif Address: 5 Rue 8010 Immeuble n5, Montplaisir , 1002 Tunis Tl: +216 71 843 822 / 845 384 Fax: +216 71 840 160 Socit Maxula Bourse Address: Centre Nawres Bureau B.22 Berges du Lac - 2045 Tunis Tl: +216 71 960 292 / 391 Fax: +216 71 960 565 Socit de Bourse de Tunis Address: Place de 7 Novembre - 1001 Tunis Tl: +216 71 332 188 Fax: +216 71 349 312 / 345 879 Socit de Conseil et d'Intermdiation Financire Address: 11, Av Abderrahmane Azzam Complexe Kheireddine Pacha, Bloc A, Appt A 11 - 1002 Tunis Tl: +216 71 843 655/ 845 927 Fax: +216 71 849 417
1, Rue 8000, Angle 11 Avenue Kheireddine Pacha - 1002 Tunis +216 71 848 429 / 842 160 +216 71 841 635
Universelle de Bourse Address: 17, Rue Flicien Chaley- 1002 Tunis Tl: +216 71 789 054 / 849 239 Fax: +216 71 787 832 Union Financire Address: Boulevard 7 Novembre, Immeuble Maghrbia Tour A, 4me tage 1080 Tunis cedex Tl: +216 71 941 385 / 940 533 Fax: +216 71 940 528 Union de Gestion Financire Address: 3, rue Jenner, Place d'Afrique (ancienne Place Jeanne d'Arc) - 1002 Tunis Belvdre Tl: +216 71 843 988 / 848 230 Fax: +216 71 782 406
116, Av. de la Libert - 1002 Tunis +216 71 849 400 / 841 034 +216 71 781 529 / 847 366 www.sudinvest.com.tn
Socit Financire de Gestion Address: 12, Rue d'Athnes - 1000 Tunis Tl: +216 71 259 310 Fax: +216 71 259 221 Tuniso-Saoudienne d'Intermdiation Address: 32, Rue Hdi KARRAY- ELMENZAH IV - 1004 Tunis Tl: +216 71 718 223 Fax: +216 71 719 912
UGANDA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
150 Kampala English (official national language) 24,699,073 2.94% (2002 est.) 43.81 62.70% NA Copper, cobalt, hydropower, limestone, salt, arable land $29 billion (PPP) 5.10% (2001 est.) $1,200 (PPP 2001 est.) 3.50% (2001 est.) 1.599 billion kWh (2000) $367 million Germany 12.0%, Netherlands 10.2%, US 8.7%, Spain 8.0%, Belgium 7.1% (2000) $1.26 billion Kenya 43.1%, US 7.0%, India 6.8%, South Africa 6.1%, Japan 3.4% (2000) $959million $1.04 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (FY98/99 est.) Ugandan shilling (UGX) $3.4 billion (2001 est.) Ugandan shillings per US dollar - 1,738.7 (January 2002), 1,755.7 (2001), 1,644.5 (2000), 1,454.8 (1999), 1,240.2 (1998), 1,083.0 (1997) 50,074; however, 80,868 main lines have been installed (1998) 27 (2001)
107
108
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) LA Domestic Share Index (Dec 2001 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992
-
1993
-
1994
-
1995
-
1996
-
1997
-
1998
-
1999
-
2000 37 0 2
2001 34 0 100 2
2002 52 1 103.36 3
Monthly closing index values 2002 LA Domestic Share Index (Dec 2001 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (3m T-Bill) % Exchange Rate v. USD
LA Domestic Share (US$) Key points Growth to stay high, despite slump in coffee New commodity crops will be looked to for diversification However, falling demand is a problem Progress on privatisation expected Exchange rate to remain stable Low interest rate environment will persist Hopes for peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo are positive
Source: Standard Chartered Bank 103
100
97
94 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
109
110
MARKET OVERVIEW
Ugandas economy has enjoyed amongst the highest growth rates in Africa over the decade Ugandas stock market showed marginal positive returns in local (3%) and US$ (2%) terms. Ugandas economy has enjoyed amongst the highest growth rates in Africa over the past decade and there is no reason why this growth should abate in the short term. Such growth can be attributed to the low base and large IMF donor funding. Ugandas stock market is the smallest in Africa (measured by market capitalisation), with only a total of five listed companies and two of these are Kenyan dual listed stocks. Bank of Baroda listed in 2002, and has shown impressive performance up to date. The economys heavy dependence on agriculture (approximately 50% of GDP) leaves it susceptible to swings in commodity prices and diversification will be necessary in order to create sustainable development. Positive developments have been made in this front, with tourism becoming a crucial foreign currency earner.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Uganda Securities Exchange Ltd Contact: Mr. Simon Rutega (Chief Executive Officer) Address: Plot 4, Nile Avenue EADB Building, Ground Floor Postal: P.O. Box 23552, Kampala, Uganda Tel.: +256 41 343 297/342 818 Fax: +256 41 342 841 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ugandacapitalmarkets.co.ug STOCKBROKERS Baroda Capital Markets (U) Ltd. Postal address: P.O. Box 78197 Kampala - Uganda Tel: +256 41 233 680/3 Fax: +256 41 258 263 E-mail: [email protected] Contact: Mr. Bhutani Crane Bank Financial Services (U) Ltd. Address: Plot 20/38 Kampala Road Postal: P.O. Box 22572 Kampala - Uganda Tel: +256 41 341 414/ 345 345 Fax: +256 41 231 578 Contact: Mr. Francis Kakurugusi Equity Stock Brokers (U) Ltd. Address: Plot 10 Kampala Road Postal: P.O. Box 3072 Kampala - Uganda Tel: +256 41 236 012 Fax: +256 41 236 066 E-mail: [email protected] Contact: Mr. Sateesh Babu Geoffrey Onegi-Obel & Co. Ltd. Address: Suite 8, Give & Take House, Nkrumah Road Postal: P.O. Box 1610 Kampala - Uganda Tel: +256 41 231 813 Contact: Mr. Geoffrey Onegi-Obel MBEA Brokerage Services (U) Ltd. Address: Pan Africa House, 4th floor,Office 3 Kimathi Avenue Postal: P.O. Box 24613 Kampala - Road Tel: +256 77 741 448 / +256 41 341 448 Fax: +256 41 342 045 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.mbea.net Contact: Mr. Andrew Owiny Trans Africa Finance & Securities Exchange Ltd. Address: Udyam House, Jinja Road Postal: P.O. Box 22789 Kampala - Uganda Tel: +256 41 234 554/ 564 / 796 Fax: +256 41 234 575 Contact: Mr. Royonga Uganda Commercial Bank Ltd. Address: 12 Kampala Road Postal: P.O. Box 973 Kampala - Uganda Tel: +256 41 234 710 / 670 Fax: +256 41 343 469 E-mail: [email protected] Contact: Mr. Ezra Mutabazi
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112
ZAMBIA
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
153 Lusaka English (official 9,959,037 1.90% (2002 est.) 37.35 78.90% 50% (2000 est.) Copper, cobalt, zinc, lead, coal, emeralds, gold, silver, uranium, hydropower $8.5 billion (PPP) 3.90% (2001 est.) $870 (PPP 2001 est.) 21.50% (2001 est.) 7.822 billion kWh (2000) $876 million UK 25.2%, South Africa 24.5%, Switzerland 9.4%, Malawi 7.5% (2000) $12.05 billion South Africa 67.1%, UK 9.8%, Zimbabwe 7.5%, US 5.9% (2000) $1.2billion $1.25 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (2001 est.) Zambian kwacha (ZMK) $5.8 billion (2001) Zambian kwacha per US dollar - 3,848.65 (January 2002), 3,610.94 (2001), 3,110.84 (2000), 2,388.02 (1999), 1,862.07 (1998), 1,314.50 (1997) 130,000 (including more than 40,000 fixed telephones in wireless local loop connections) (1997) 111 (2001)
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) LuSE All Share Index (Jan 1997 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
1992 -
1993 -
1994 -
1995 19 0 2
1996 195 3 6
Monthly closing index values 2002 LuSE All Share Index (Jan 1997 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN 313.36
FEB 321.06
MAR 315.83
APR 310.10
MAY 323.36
JUN 335.08
JUL 334.56
AUG 340.90
SEP 336.20
OCT 333.80
NOV 336.60
DEC 306.97
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (3m T-Bill) % Exchange Rate v. USD
Key points Withdrawal of Anglo American from Zambia is a challenge, but the copper mines will not be closed Zambia's copper output due to increase Tourism and agriculture will also contribute to growth Healthy levels of donor funding promised, and Zambia could reach HIPC completion soon An end to conflict in Angola and the DRC will be positive for the region as a whole
Source: Standard Chartered Bank
105
95
85 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
113
114
Local share price (Zk) 54.00 25.10 450.00 299.00 430.00 145.00 150.00 200.00 610.00 3.75
Price to earnings (x) 6.0 4.2 7.7 6.1 5.1 3.1 9.9 2.5 4.3 1.7 5.8
Dividend yield (%) 10.2 9.8 4.7 4.3 10.3 8.7 1.7 23.6 4.4 13.3 8.6
Price to book (x) 2.8 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 1.9
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MARKET OVERVIEW
Diversification away from agriculture and mining bode well for the future The Zambian economy is heavily reliant on the price of copper. Lower prices for copper in 2002 resulted in Anglo American withdrawing from its investment in the Konkola Copper Mines. This was a major setback for the economy as Anglo was the largest foreign direct investor. Agricultural output was hampered due to the regional drought, which weighed down the economy, as agriculture accounts for approximately 17% of GDP. The Zambian Kwacha depreciated (by -15.5%) to the US dollar in 2002 due to decreased foreign exchange earnings in line with lower copper prices and increased import costs for food supplies. Impressive returns in local currency terms (24%) where tarnished when translated into US$ terms (5%) due to the depreciation of the Kwacha. Nonetheless, two new companies where listed in 2002, which is impressive for a relatively small market. Diversification away from agriculture and mining bode well for the future.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Lusaka Stock Exchange Contact: Dr Lloyd Chingambo (General Manager) Addess: 3rd Floor Central, Stand 2713 Famers House Building, Cnr Cairo Road & Church Roads, Lusaka. Postal: PO Box 34523, Lusaka, Zambia Tel: +260 1 22 8391/8537/8594 Fax: +260 1 22 5969 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.luse.co.zm STOCKBROKERS Pangaea EMI Securities Zambia Ltd Address: Farmers House Central Park, Cairo Road Postal: P O Box 30163, Lusaka Tel: +260 1 238 709/10 Fax: +260 1 220 925 Cavmont Securities Ltd Address: 2nd Floor, Mukuba Pension House Dedan Kimathi Road Postal: P O Box 35476, Lusaka Tel: +260 1 227 763/224 585/6 Fax: +260 1 224 304/316 Inter-market Securities Zambia Ltd. Farmers House Address: Central Park, Cairo Road Postal: P O Box 35832, Lusaka Tel: +260 1 227227/8 Fax: +260 1 227274
ZIMBABWE
COUNTRY PROFILE
UNDP Human Development Index Ranking Capital Languages Population Population growth rate Life expectancy at birth (years- total population) Literacy rate: total population Unemployment rate Natural resources GDP GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita Inflation rate (consumer prices) Electricity - production Exports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Exports - partners Imports (f.o.b., 2001 est.) Imports - partners Government Revenues Government Expenditures Currency Debt - external Exchange rates Telephones - main lines in use Airports
Source: UNDP, CIA World Factbook
128 Harare English (official) 11,376,676 0.05% (2002 est.) 36.5 85% 60% (2001 est.) Coal, chromium ore, asbestos, gold, nickel, copper, iron ore, vanadium, lithium, tin, platinum group metals $28 billion (PPP) -6.50% (2001 est.) $2,450 (PPP 2001 est.) 100% (2001 est.) 6.425 billion kWh (2000) $2.1 billion South Africa 12.1%, UK 8.5%, Japan 7.7%, Germany 6.1%, China 5.4% (2000) $1.5 billion South Africa 46.3%, UK 7.2%, Germany 2.5%, US 2.8%, Japan 2.5% (2000 est.) $2.5billion $2.6 billion, including capital expenditures of $NA (2000 est.) Zimbabwean dollar (ZWD) $5 billion (2001 est.) Zimbabwean dollars per US dollar - 54.9451 (December 2001), 54.9451 (2001), 43.2900 (2000), 38.3142 (1999), 21.4133 (1998), 11.8906 (1997) 212,000 (in addition, there are about 20,000 fixed telephones in wireless local loop connections) (1997) 454 (2001)
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118
Market Snapshot Market Capitalization (US$mn) Value Traded (US$mn) ZSE Industrial Index (1985 = 100) Number of Listed Companies
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica, S&P Emerging Markets Handbook
Monthly closing index values 2002 ZSE All Share Index (1985 = 100)
Note: (End-of-Period Levels) Source: LiquidAfrica
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
46 149.49 47 788.30 48 090.75 51 211.44 68261.75 77 232.98 100 951.31 99 399.74 99 520.98 115 097.30 93 231.87 102 228.96
Macroeconomic Indicators (annual averages) GDP % CPI Inflation % Interest Rates (3m T-Bill) % Official Exchange Rate v. USD
2000a -6.1 56 60 38
2001a -7.3 74 30 55
2005f 9 27 34 300
ZSE Industrial Index (US$) Key points Economy to contract further in the near term Zimbabwe faces a food emergency as a result of the drought Inflation to be pressured until monetary policy is tightened Over the forecast horizon, recovery - led by mining- is predicted With recovery, double digit growth is possible Political situation hampers economic development
Source: Standard Chartered Bank 275
200
125
70 Jan 02
Mar 02
May 02
Jul 02
Sep 02
Nov 02
Jan 03
Local share price (Z$) 146.10 755.00 76.00 21.00 1,450.00 160.00 22.00 180.00 33.00 97.00
Price to earnings (x) 19.4 78.3 143.4 13.5 40.0 29.1 15.6 10.9 31.3 47.1
Dividend yield (%) 2.2 0.3 7.5 2.3 0.7 2.7 5.4 0.6 1.8
Price to book (x) 1.6 6.5 10.4 16.0 5.6 4.4 6.9 2.9
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MARKET OVERVIEW
Badly needs a political settlement to pull out of the current malaise At first glance, the performance of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) in 2002 may seem to be a stark contradiction of economic theory. Paradoxically the country is facing worsening economic fundaments, due to the current political situation and on the other hand the local stock market is booming. However, in a situation where negative real interest rates, high inflation and a fixed exchange rate regime pertain, investors have little option but to seek routes where they can preserve capital. As a result, funds have flowed from interest bearing investments to real estate and listed equities. Given Zimbabwes political situation where property rights have been compromised, investors would prefer to invest in the stock market. However, this capital preservation strategy is only effective in the short to medium term, thereafter the cumulative effect on the economy has a bearing on all asset classes. Zimbabwes productive capacity has been severely diminished and the long-term impact to key sectors such as agriculture, mining and manufacturing will take a long time to unravel. Some estimates are that Zimbabwes GDP has declined by 25%. The immediate outlook is for a continued decline in GDP unless the government obtains support to rectify the damage, which is highly unlikely without a political settlement. The most vulnerable sector would probably be the banking sector where the effect of negative real interest rates would be felt most. This coupled with an environment where property rights are difficult to enforce any banks ability to effect loan recoveries would be difficult to achieve. The ZSE has the highest valuations in Africa and this has stimulated a number of capital raisings. In addition, a number of conglomerates have undergone unbundling processes largely driven by management buyouts. We expect this trend to continue as companies starved of cash raise capital on the exchange. Unexpectedly, this de-coupling process may have injected some efficiency into the corporate sector of Zimbabwe placing them on better footing for the future as long as the economy is turned around.
CONTACT DETAILS
STOCK EXCHANGE Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Contact: Mr Emmanuel Munyukwi (CEO) Addess: 8th Floor, Southampton House, Union Avenue, HARARE, Zimbabwe Postal: P O Box U.A. 234 HARARE, Zimbabwe Tel: +263 4 736 861 Fax: +263 4 791045/708368 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.zse.co.zw STOCKBROKERS Fleming Martin Edwards Securities Address: Club Chambers, Baker Ave, Third Street Postal: P O Box 1475, Harare Tel: +263 4 727 907; 708 368 Fax: +263 4 707932; 729 588 E-mail: [email protected] Sagit Stockbrokers (Private) Limited Address: Southampton Life Centre 2nd Street/Jason Moyo Avenue Postal: P O Box 21, Harare Tel: Fax: E-mail: +263 4 735 488 +263 4 750 564 [email protected]
Trust Corporation Securities (Pvt.) Ltd Address: 6th Floor, Livingston House Samora Machel Avenue Postal: P O Box 7245, Harare Tel: +263 4 728 251 / 702 005 Fax: +263 4 702 007 E-mail: [email protected]
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www.undp.org
March 2003
United Nations Development Programme One United Nations Plaza New York, NY 10017 USA