Gas prices started rising this week due to the seasonal switch to “summer gas,” but predicting where they will land is difficult due to “wild” market conditions, said a petroleum expert.
Is that a sign that summer road trips are going to be pricey? As the Magic 8-Ball says, signs are cloudy due to economic uncertainty.
“Making a accurate prediction now is like me in Florida throwing a dart and hitting a bullseye in New Jersey,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for Gas Buddy. “It’s wild.”
Factors influencing gas prices now and into the summer include OPEC rolling back 2023 oil production cuts, refinery maintenance and the effect of the Trump Administration tariffs on the global economy, he said.
“If things stay as rough as they feel, New Jersey prices could peak in next week and might go up beyond $3.15 a gallon,” he said.
By summer prices could settle around $3 a gallon, depending on economic conditions, De Haan said.
“New Jersey is starting to see the spring surge, the Northeast is the last region to transition to summer gas and that’s why prices are shooting up,” De Haan said. “What we see now is seasonal.”
That switch could add about 15 cents a gallon to the prices, he said.
On Wednesday, the national per gallon price was $3.23 for regular, but Jersey drivers made out better with a lower $2.97 a gallon price, AAA said. Prices landed at $3.26 per gallon for the national average and $3.05 per gallon for regular on Friday, AAA said.
Even cheaper options reported by Gas Buddy’s crowd sourced price spotters shows prices at the lower priced stations increased this week. The 10 lowest priced stations that ranged between $2.54 to $2.65 a gallon for regular on Wednesday rose to $2.65 to 2.69 by Friday.
Another factor is Mid-Atlantic region refineries reduce gas production now to do maintenance to ensure plants can meet the demand for gas during the peak summer driving period, De Haan said.
Refining capacity dropped to 58% from the normal 70% to 80% to prepare for the higher demand, meaning less gas supplies, he said.
Maintenance lasts about four to six weeks, he said,
Tempering both of those factors is a drop in crude oil prices to $62 a barrel. That price tumbled from $71.71 per barrel on Wednesday, according to oilprice.com.
“Oil prices have been crashing for the last few days, that might take a bite out it,” De Haan said of the seasonal gas price increase.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could help that slide with decision to increase oil production and roll back 2023 production cuts, De Haan said. Those increases will add 411,000 barrels of oil per day, that increase could be “paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,” OPEC said in an April 3 statement.
“More supply will add to oil price demise,” De Haan said. “Oil producers are feeling the heat and the last thing they want to do is, drill baby, drill.”
Finally, there is the effect of the Trump administrations tariffs, announced Thursday.
Canadian oil and energy have been spared from tariff, which is good news for drivers because Canada is the largest oil exporting country to the U.S., according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data for January 2025.
“Tariffs absolutely will affect gas,” De Haan said. “With the tariffs being more sizable than expected, the stock market tumbled … it could push the U.S. into a slowdown that will push oil consumption down.”
Typically oil and gas consumption go down when the economy contracts, he said.
“The wholesale price of gas went down 30 cents in the past 48 hours,” he said.
If tariffs are rolled back, drivers could see gas prices bounce back and rise, De Haan said.
Which is why it’s hard to predict what gas prices will be this summer, he said.
Stories by Larry Higgs
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Larry Higgs may be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on X @CommutingLarry