US copper imports could rise 50-100% in coming months, says Goldman Sachs

US copper imports could rise by 50% or even 100% in the coming months as a result of higher metal prices before the Trump administration’s planned tariffs, Goldman Sachs said in a note this week.

In late February, the US President ordered an investigation into copper imports on national security grounds, in what was a first step toward potential tariffs on the metal.

While the probe is ongoing, analysts at Goldman are expecting at least a 25% tariff like many other metals by year-end, which could result in a surge in imports and a 200,000-300,000-ton increase in US copper inventories by the end of the third quarter.

The potential tariff has already created a huge arbitrage opportunity for metal traders to profit from importing physical copper into the US before the deadline. As of last week, CME’s May copper contracts were trading $800/t higher than their London counterparts.

According to Goldman, a higher copper price is projected to boost US copper stocks from the current 95,000 tons to at least 300,000-400,000 tons by the end of the third quarter. This would account for 45-60% of global reported inventories, leaving very low copper inventories elsewhere, it added.

The bank also forecasts a 180,000-ton global copper market deficit in 2025 due to robust electrification demand, China stimulus and slower mine supply growth, expected to be concentrated in the second half of the year due to seasonal factors.

“We maintain our forecast that the LME 3-month price will average $10,200/t in Q3, and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in time spreads,” Goldman said.

“We forecast a maximum $350/t LME Sep-Dec backwardation, based on the LME backwardation rising to a level that will close the US import arbitrage.”

Read more: US tariff threat brings boom time for physical copper traders