Bloomberg Opinion

VIDEO COLUMN: Robusta coffee prices just hit a fresh 45-year high ☕️📈🤬 The main driver remains bad weather in Vietnam, but on the background is, too, the rapid rise in coffee consumption in otherwise tea-loving China. I did an Bloomberg Opinion video column about both a few weeks ago. #coffee #china #commodities

Metaphors are dangerous things, especially in matters of war and peace. That makes me dread the communique the 32 allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will issue this week to conclude their summit here in Washington. It will almost certainly contain some version of what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken previewed as “a bridge to membership” for Ukraine, “a bridge that’s strong and well-lit.” A bridge is something you can fall off while attempting to cross a raging torrent. Well-lit or not, it’s a place between two banks and in the safety of neither. It’s also something that enemies try to blow up while you’re still building it; army types consider “wet gap crossings” among the most perilous operations in war. Let’s be clear about what this bridge is not. It’s not the promise of a security guarantee by NATO as implied by its Article 5, which says that an attack on one member is an attack on all. It therefore can’t and won’t deter Russian escalation, and may even invite it. The bridge is instead a wobbly rhetorical pontoon floating in the whitewater separating Russia and the West. The allies are recommitting their original sin toward Kyiv, which dates to the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008. At that time, .... [Read the whole column] Bloomberg Opinion #NATO https://lnkd.in/g-Uv3dkj

On the how, the why, and the so what of the new Labour government in the UK wasting no time in pursuing some of the major economic initiatives outlined in its election manifesto (with a focus on the National Wealth Fund). https://lnkd.in/d_XiZmHA #economy #markets #growth #NWF #UK Bloomberg Opinion

The rise of Reform UK, the far-right populist party led by Nigel Farage that picked up five seats in last week’s general election, has been well-documented and discussed. But there’s another side whose success warrants a look. Since 2010, the Green Party held just one seat in Brighton Pavilion. But Thursday’s vote saw them take three more seats, giving them a total of four MPs and 7% of the vote share — up from just 3% in 2019. My piece on how they did it, and the challenge ahead via Bloomberg Opinion

I have to admit, I kind of surprised myself with this Bloomberg Opinion column. When I heard about job applicants using ChatGPT to help them write cover letters, I was initially horrified -- but after talking with several experts and exploring the tool more myself, I came away convinced my initial reaction had been uninformed. But there's no doubt that as more candidates use GenAI to beef up their applications, recruiters and managers will have to think differently about how they assess potential hires. (Gift link) https://lnkd.in/egM8mx6v

Airbnb has become the affordable housing scapegoat. And yet bans on Airbnb could actually make housing less affordable, particularly for lower income people. Here's why: If a community continues to have the same number of tourists, then the  higher hotel prices that come after significant limits on short-term accommodations will ultimately lead to the development of more hotels — using space and capital that could be used for residential housing. There is a always a trade off between space for commerce (including tourist accomodation) and residents, and arguments about short term accomodation taking housing could also be made about people running businesses out of their home or even working out of their home. All of that use takes space, some of which would be otherwise vacant (using the kitchen table during the day to work) and some of which could house a roommate (the spare bedroom turned into a home office could have a renter in it instead). Affordable housing also requires a thriving economy since affordable relates to not only the price of the housing but the income of the people buying it. No one argues for fewer businesses or fewer jobs, but they do implicitly argue for fewer tourists. Short-term accomodation increases the elasticity of supply (in econ jargon), meaning that the supply can flexibility respond to price. The beauty of letting families make their own decisions about whether to rent out their home is that when demand changes — for example, when the Olympics come to Paris — then supply can elastically respond. High demand drives prices higher, which will convince some people to stay with friends or family, go on vacation to a less crowded place, or even take in a tourist. This helps density increase during peak times and allows residents to benefit from the ebb and flow of demand in their community. Without such flexibility, a city would need more hotels to accommodate peak travel season, and then those rooms might sit empty for large parts of the year. Finally, the rise of short-term rentals is helping to democratize homeownership, which remains the primary source of wealth for most households. Short-term accommodations offer Americans a way to put this wealth to work for them, giving those with less steady or lower incomes another path to home ownership. Of course we need some regulations to deal with the externalities! Limitations on the number of guests or number of days a property can be rented out, combined with stronger enforcement of local noise ordinances, can help reduce the negative impact on neighbors. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gg28SA8V

Pop quiz time: Which US state is the most vulnerable to climate-fueled weather disasters and soaring home-insurance costs but is also growing rapidly and has a government hostile to the very concept of climate change? The most obvious answer is Florida, with its hurricanes and floods and anti-woke, stunt-loving governor. The correct answer, however, is Texas. No other state has suffered more climate-related damage over the past several decades than the Lone Star State — not even Florida, California or Louisiana. Home-insurance costs rose more in Texas than in any other state last year and over the past five years. And though Governor Ron DeSantis has outlawed the mention of climate change in Florida, Texas’ aggressive pro-global-warming policies have real teeth and will continue to do real harm. Especially to Texas. My free column for Bloomberg Opinion #climate #climatechange #texas #houston #hurricaneberyl https://lnkd.in/eDp2bVHA

Tesla’s second-quarter sales numbers beat estimates. The stock leapt. The estimate itself had been beaten down by 100k since the start of the year, which probably helped. Moreover, sales were still down, year over year, and don’t change the basic problem here: Tesla’s core business isn’t growing and its earnings are slumping, yet it is priced as an all-conquering growth stock. Why? One word: Robotaxis. Elon Musk is promising a big reveal on that front in August. Of course, this wouldn’t be the first time he’s promised that our self-driving future is just around the corner… Read about it here at Bloomberg Opinion https://lnkd.in/eEZcEPaU

Weddings aren't a big contributor to climate change, but they'll likely be one of the most carbon intensive days of your and your partner's life. That's because no other single day comes with the same amount of pressure and expectation to buy stuff. It makes nuptials a fascinating lens to look at how our consumer choices stack up in terms of carbon emissions. Check out my piece for Bloomberg Opinion. I did all the drawings, and with help from Taylor Tyson and Elaine He, created a fun interactive quiz so you can see how your own choices stack up.

The Department of Justice plans to charge Boeing for violating a differed prosecution agreement that stemmed from two fatal crashes of the 737 Max and dates back to January 2021. The company will have a choice of pleading guilty and paying a fine, or fighting the charges in a jury trial, Bloomberg News has reported from sources. As long as the guilty plea doesn't keep Boeing from bidding on government contracts or otherwise hamper its recovery, the company should accept the deal. Boeing may be tempted to fight the charges because the accident that spurred the reexamination of the agreement -- a door plug that blew out during an Alaska Airlines flight in January -- isn't related to the deception of the Federal Aviation Administration that took place during the development of the Max 737. A jury trial is just too risky. Read more in my latest column: