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Name: FreightWaves on LinkedIn: On today's episode of WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Timothy Dooner dives into last…
Uploaded: 2024-06-28T18:05:56.133Z
Channel: FreightWaves
Description: On today's episode of WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Timothy Dooner dives into last night’s presidential debate and its potential impact on ocean shipping. With Trump promising a renewed trade war and tariff hikes, we could see a significant pull forward in play. Watch the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/eSCA7J5n

FreightWaves

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1mo

On today's episode of WHAT THE TRUCK?!? Timothy Dooner dives into last night’s presidential debate and its potential impact on ocean shipping. With Trump promising a renewed trade war and tariff hikes, we could see a significant pull forward in play. Watch the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/eSCA7J5n

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Sentiment has shifted. Here's the new narrative. You're starting to see that Trump eyes a bigger trade war in the second term. What kind of impact could this have on freight though? Well, right now, the Kobe Lassie letter says breaking the odds of Trump winning the 2024 presidential election surged to new highs of 63%. Since the debate started. Odds of Trump winning election of surged by over 10%. There a lot of people last night who said that sway sentiment. Anybody's undersized already decided. Obviously that's not true. I think like when you see people on social media. You're like all those people are deciding if people are very strong opinions. That's not the case. 10 logistics experts he says after last night. What does a prudent supply chain manager do The likelihood of 10% global tariffs and 60% from China have gone to highly probable to the manager needs to start hedging bets and locking an ocean capacity start moving product now. Of course, this will result in rates going very, very high according to the New York Times. If you missed that Mister Trump is now envisioning taxing perhaps perhaps. 10 times as many imports he did during his first term and approach that economists say could trigger a trade war that drives up already high prices and plunged the US into recession. But even more so than that, there's the 60% tariffs that have been talked about for China. I used to imports and like a high tariff on something from China would be on like footwear. It would be 25% or so. The duty, the former duty drawback expert in me loves the big tariffs because like that would be some really, some really dope claims. Craig Fuller says in 20/17/2018, the threat of tariffs on Chinese. Imports and Trump's tax cuts created one of the highest volumes of goods flowing through the freight economy. This will likely repeat over the next couple of quarters. What he's talking about here is now that there's a likelihood potentially of a Trump victory, supply chain experts have to think about and shippers have to think about what to do. And I'll tell you why because when you look at rates right now, take a look at this as a freight toast at Baltics index. China to North America West, they're already popping. These are already up three times higher than I think they were about a year ago there. This was at over 7000. Dollars China, this is China to the American West Coast is over $7000 so far. We start getting a pull forward and I don't know how long that pull forward take. We start taking a pull for though this is gonna keep skyrocketing. Now some of your shippers could find yourself in that 10,000 and higher territory before you know, and it's not just the West Coast. Look at the East Coast. That's over 8000 right now on the freight toast Baltic index on that second chart. Yeah, that one right there. And you can see it still surging, it's still going up. And a lot of that's been driven by a little bit by consumer demands, a little bit about Red Sea disruptions, a little bit about Panama Canal water levels. And one of the things we're talking about here is shift in fundamentals, things like hurricanes and stuff like that, that could impact ground freight.

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