Pansy Shah

Getting closer to a recession? let´s follow the inverted yield curve and Sahm rule Understanding the Correlation Both the Sahm Rule and yield curve inversion are valuable tools for predicting recessions, but they operate on different timelines and with varying degrees of accuracy. Sahm Rule: A lagging indicator that confirms a recession once it has begun. Yield Curve Inversion: Often a leading indicator, suggesting a potential recession in the future. While the Sahm Rule and yield curve inversion have shown a correlation in predicting past recessions, their effectiveness can vary. Using these indicators in conjunction with other economic data provides a more comprehensive view of the economic landscape. Review my full article below (Please subscribe!):

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Check out the latest episode of the Best But Never Final Podcast featuring HCI Equity Partners’, Managing Partner and CIO, Douglas McCormick alongside co-hosts Sean Mooney and Lloyd Metz where they discuss the multifaceted responsibilities and evolving nature of the CFO role within the private equity landscape. #hciequity #privateequity #bestbutneverfinalpodcast

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CFOs are crucial to companies' success, but if the team around them isn't capable of hearing the message or drawing insights, their influence can be diminished. In the latest episode of the Best But Never Final Podcast, Douglas McCormick, Lloyd Metz and Sean Mooney unpack the strategic role of a CFO. Want to learn more? Listen to the full episode on your preferred podcast streaming platform or at the link in the comments.

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There is still as much capital flowing into private equity as there was at the 2021 highs, leading to more M&A activity than ever. This increase in capital created the need for more "deal flow" and required private equity to step outside it's normal "buy box" of fancy white collar deals and step into the blue collar world buying home services companies (i.e. plumbers, electricians, and HVAC companies). The goal is combining multiple entities together to improve operational efficiency & increase profits. Seeing such a shift in investing strategy, and one that likely won't be going away, the industry has clearly come a long way since "Barbarians at the Gate" https://lnkd.in/eruCz2S3

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The current cycle: with elevated interest rates, the landscape for private equity has shifted. The Fed’s rate hikes hit commercial real estate and corporate credit markets. Bain's reports that ~28,000 private equity-owned companies are waiting for buyers. Last year's combined value of companies sold by PE dropped 44% to a decade low. In the years to come, the structure of the private equity industry rather than what is best for these businesses and its employees will dictate the sales of these companies. PE is under pressure to return capital to investors. As these businesses transact, disruption for customers and employees will be felt in several industries.

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Last week, Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management participated in the 2024 Mariner CPA Summit in Kansas City. Jay Frank, President of Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management, delivered valuable insights on tax and event-driven real estate strategies highlighting how proactive tax planning and strategic investment solutions can optimize portfolios and help advisors and CPAs grow their practices. A special thanks to Mariner for organizing this summit. #InvestmentManagement #TaxStrategies #EventDrivenInvesting #CantorFitzgerald #MarinerCPA #FinanceSummit

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We've got private equity firms sitting on ~$2tn of committed, uncalled capital vs. firms struggling to sell existing investments, both brought on by a deal freeze related to high interest rates – with buyout activity up, are we seeing a slow thawing of the deal freeze?

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Funding News: Brookfield Asset Management announced an initial closing of $2.4 billion for the Catalytic Transition Fund (CTF), with a target of raising $5 billion. The fund aims to support clean energy and transition assets in emerging markets. ALTÉRRA provided up to $1 billion in catalytic capital, improving returns for other investors. Brookfield has committed 10% of the fund's target, with additional support from institutional investors like Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), GIC, Prudential, and Temasek. 🗣 Mark Carney, Chair and Head of Transition Investing at Brookfield Asset Management, said, “These anchor commitments from CDPQ, GIC, Prudential and Temasek demonstrate significant momentum for the Catalytic Transition Fund. The support from the world’s most sophisticated investors for the CTF strategy underscores the unique combination of the major commercial opportunity and the climate imperative. We look forward to working with other like-minded investment partners to accelerate the transition in these critical and vastly underserved markets.” 🗣 Marc-Andre Blanchard, Executive Vice-President and Head of CDPQ Global and Global Head of Sustainability, said, “Globally, around $6.5 trillion will be needed yearly for the energy transition over the next 15 years. It’s a staggering figure, and various partnerships and investments are necessary to accelerate the path forward. For CDPQ, the energy transition is key to creating lasting value. By investing in Brookfield’s Catalytic Transition Fund, we are supporting innovative approaches to mobilize capital for climate solutions in emerging markets, where investments are critical to tackle the global environmental challenge.” #CleanEnergy #EmergingMarkets #ClimateFinance #SustainableInvestment #EnergyTransition #BrookfieldAssetManagement #CatalyticCapital #NetZero #ClimateSolutions #InstitutionalInvesting #GlobalPartnerships #RenewableEnergy

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“We think there is more opportunity for higher returns in these smaller transactions.” “Understanding the nuances of the local market is critical here.” "Grazing at the Granular Level," published in PERE's Value Creation Report, Zachary Vaughan highlights the strategic value of investing in smaller-scale real estate assets in Europe. Zach points out that these granular assets, typically valued around the €20 million mark, can often be acquired on favourable terms, and offer multiple exit strategies. Arrow leverages its large, localised teams to source these granular opportunities, which are generally less intermediated, and more liquid compared to larger transactions. With about €80 billion in assets under management, Arrow's approach capitalises on the direct sourcing from its extensive network, making the most of the fragmented European real estate market by focusing on high-demand sectors such as multi-family residential and student housing. Read the full article here https://bit.ly/4bpECw4 #privatecredit #privatedebt #alternatives #realestate #assetmanagement

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Value creation is the name of the game. On the Financial Innovations Podcast hosted by Daniel Villani, James Williams, Co-Founder of Next Level Financial, reveals how a CFO should be a value creator, not just a number cruncher. James is redefining the role, emphasizing the importance of capital allocation and value creation. Don't miss this episode for real business growth here https://lnkd.in/e_icHE5y #CFOInsights #CFORedefined #ValueCreation #StrategicFinance #BusinessGrowth #StrategicFinance

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🚪 Exiting in 2024: Is the path to liquidity disappearing?🚪 The IPO market is nearly nonexistent, with fewer tech IPOs than even during the fallout of the dotcom bubble. 🔸 Large M&A deals are facing regulatory blocks, forcing companies to explore creative options like reverse acquihires. 🔸 VC-backed IPOs are reaching new lows. 🔸 Exit rates remain unchanged over time despite companies scaling faster than ever. 🔸 Startups are increasingly looking for alternative paths to liquidity. What are the smartest routes for startups to navigate? #ExitMarket #IPO #VentureCapital #StartupExits 📊 📈 📉 isights by Arthen

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READ ARTICLE: https://lnkd.in/guVeB32P In volatile markets, leveraging debt strategically can unlock growth opportunities. From subordinated debt to mezzanine financing, the right structure can fuel expansion, acquisitions, and more. At Masthead Financial & Capital Advisors, we guide companies in navigating these complexities to drive success. Learn how smart debt management can propel your business forward. #DebtManagement #GrowthStrategy #FinanceLeaders #MezzanineFinancing #BusinessGrowth #CFO #CEO #MastheadFCA

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Thinking about your company’s financial health? Our Valuation Group provides unparalleled expertise across financial reporting, tax compliance, strategic advisory, and transaction opinions. We ensure your asset valuations are accurate, compliant, and strategically insightful, setting the foundation for informed decision-making and long-term growth. Navigating complex financial landscapes is what we do best. Whether it's mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buyouts, or distressed asset acquisitions, we’ve got you covered. Our comprehensive analysis takes into account both tangible assets and intangible value drivers, aligning with the latest accounting standards and tax regulations. Our strategic advisory services help you uncover critical value drivers and often overlooked inputs, delivering essential insights for all key stakeholders. We tailor our financial models to your specific needs, integrating industry benchmarks and regulatory updates to ensure your forecasts are both reliable and actionable. Ready to elevate your financial strategy? Let's talk about how our expertise can support your business goals. Discover more: https://lnkd.in/g5QPMwaz #Valuation #FinancialHealth #BusinessGrowth #StrategicAdvisory #MergersAndAcquisitions #TaxCompliance #Objective  #BusinessOwner

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Westwood's Energy & Real Assets team has been discussing the need for more natural gas to fuel AI data center demand, and the recent $50 billion partnership between KKR and Energy Capital Partners (ECP) to fund large-scale power generation and data center infrastructure projects across the U.S. confirms our thesis. This joint venture is aimed at addressing the surging energy needs of artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. ECP, which owns Calpine—one of the nation’s largest power generators and a significant player in both conventional and renewable energy—will leverage its expanded portfolio of natural-gas-fired plants to provide the reliable, around-the-clock power that AI-driven data centers require. While Calpine’s natural gas assets offer immediate scalability to meet AI demand, this dependence on gas also creates a sustainability challenge for tech firms balancing rapid AI expansion with carbon reduction commitments. Read our recent Insights post on the intersection of midstream energy and data centers to learn more: https://bit.ly/3AAeHFf #Energy #DataCenters #AI

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PE firms continue to grapple with holding portfolio companies longer and create value while exploring alternative exit strategies to monetization. Meanwhile, deal making and IPOs stubbornly remain well below normal levels. #privateequity #alternativeinvestments #investmentbanking

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