Chris Greacen

Blue hydrogen is vaporware designed to extend the use of natural gas. Carbon Tracker has a new analysis that adds more to the huge pile of evidence that this is the case. https://lnkd.in/gRriRk-B "Carbon Tracker Associate Analyst and report author Lorenzo Sani said: “Blue hydrogen and Gas-CCS projects should not be considered low-carbon unless, on top of achieving high carbon capture rates, they can guarantee to only utilise natural gas with low upstream emissions. Green hydrogen, produced from renewable electricity, remains the only truly low-emission pathway.” Back in 2021 I was writing about the many flaws with blue hydrogen. https://lnkd.in/gRz2waNV Meanwhile, like many clean technologies, there is a lot of innovation going on in the green H2 space. Cipher Neutron posted here about their latest advancement in electrolyzer efficiency. https://lnkd.in/gjhGXzka

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Analysis of satellite observations by the The Superpower Institute shows that methane emissions near identified emission hotspots in Australia are some 2.5 times higher than what is reported in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI, https://lnkd.in/g38anSAb ). The NGGI relies heavily on self-reporting from industry, often using outdated methods, and lacking independent verification. This finding not only casts doubt on the accuracy of Australia’s self-reported methane estimates but also underscores the potential for significant under-reporting of emissions. Methane emissions are part of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Significantly underreporting emissions make meaningful emission reductions much, much harder. Open Methane's first results here: https://lnkd.in/g3scSKhj

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China's March economic data shows that a fall in CO2 emissions could be starting to happen. The growth rate of large scale power generation slowed to 3%, due to slower demand growth and growth in distributed solar. Thermal power generation inched up 0.5%, as hydropower generation remained weak, with operators likely conserving water for the summer peak demand season. Raw coal production fell 4% and imports were flat, indicating that demand outside the power sector fell significantly. Real estate investment continued to contract, for the third year, and steel production fell 8%. This also meant a 6% drop in coke production. Cement production fell 22%. Oil refinery throughput, an indicator of demand for refined oil, slowed to 1% and exports jumped 30%, showing that the oil demand rebound could be petering out. Solar panel production grew another 20% in Jan-March from last year's impressive numbers. Solar power installations in Jan-Feb stood at 37 GW, up 80% on year. EV production grew 29% while total vehicle production resumed its fall, so EV share continues to shoot up. Investment in manufacturing by state-owned firms continued as the only driver of investment growth, indicating that the overcapacity concerns will intensify. It's too early to call whether CO2 emission in fact fell in March; I'll be analysing that closely as more data comes available. One-month data can be strongly affected by changes in inventories so e.g. coal production is not a reliable indicator of consumption. If China's emissions did fall in March, that could mark the turnaround after blistering growth since 2020 that has put China badly off track to 2025 climate targets. The current growth rate of clean energy has the potential to peak the country's emissions. https://lnkd.in/dDwqcx-r

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Another high-level policy document on green and low-carbon transformation: Communist Party Central Committee "Opinions on accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of the economy and the society". Positive points: -accelerate clean energy bases and actively develop distributed solar, and puts the onus on grid improvements, reform and storage to integrate the clean energy sources. No sense of pushing back on the pace of clean energy deployment due to concerns about grid. -the commitment to gradually reduce coal consumption in the 2026-30 period is included, implying that coal consumption should peak soon (or have already peaked) -"contain the blind expansion of high-energy, high-emissions, low-quality projects". This is a watered-down version of Xi's 2021 exhortation to "strictly control high-energy, high-emissions projects", but given that the following two years saw a huge proliferation of such projects, bringing the slogan back is good. On the negative side, the language seems to really emphasize ambiguity around China's commitment to peak CO2 emissions. The paper has a paragraph listing key targets for 2030 and 2035, only saying that CO2 emissions should have fallen from their peak by 2035 (the phrase 达峰后稳中有降 is slightly cryptic but that also emphasizes the need to define what "peaking CO2 emissions BEFORE 2030" means precisely). Most significantly though, another fairly generic but high-level policy paper on the issue, after two action plans from the State Council, emphasizes that climate and low-carbon development are very clearly back on the agenda after taking the back seat during and immediately after the zero-Covid period.

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Amen to Tom's point about nuclear and natural gas, to which I would add the world needs a change in thinking about clean energy and energy innovation that its global emission reduction, stupid NOT the elimination of the oil and gas industry. Canada and Germany serve as example of what not to do, while the US/AB's shift from coal to natural gas is an example of progressive energy shifts leading to emission reductions. While Canada's made in China "Just Transtion" to wind/solar/EVs/heatpumps built with coal, children in Africa and Russian oil and gas simply transfers both CDN carbon tax cash and emissions to China without having any impact on reducing global emissions, but having a huge negative impact on the CDN economy. The supreme irony is the vacuous climate change alarm virtue signaling that the liberals were successful in conning Canadian citizens, while the US has no carbon tax, its shift from coal to natural gas yielded real emission reductions, and in 2024 the US became the largest producer/exporter of oil, gas and LNG of any country in the history of the world! Clearly the world needs a different more effective philosophy with regard to energy innovation that results in actual global emission reductions that are effective in causing all major emitters to reduce their emissions including the US, India, Russia and China! Until this is done real progress on global emissions reductions is unlikely. But to ignore moves like BRICS by India, China and Russia to escape the effect of sanctions, while still bilking the west's climate change alarm is totally ineffective on global emission reduction, and destroys the west's economies, while expanding China's economy. It is time for energy innovation like that proposed by Nobel winning energy innovator Rodney Allam to eliminate emissions, not the oil and gas industry. Allam has walked that talk through his two new startups that use natural gas to create clean energy, NET Power for electricity generation and 8RH2 8 Rivers for hydrogen/ammonia production using natural gas. Finally and most importantly currently there is no real energy transition right now and destroying a free market economy through government subsidies for wind/solar/EVs/heatpumps that China has a monopoly on because it uses cheaper but more polluting energy sources of coal and Russian oil and gas is as short sighted as it is ineffective on global emission reduction!

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File under CDP, DID ANY COMPANY SEE ITS DIRECT SCOPE 1 THU 3 GHG EMISSIONS DECLINE LAST YEAR? Sans renewable energy or sequestration credits? “How hot are we talking? Well, high temperatures across (western Nevada and northeastern California) won't get below 100 degrees (37.8 C) until next weekend,” the service posted online. “And unfortunately, there won't be much relief overnight either." https://lnkd.in/gT-fQqcH “Torrid.” Say that outloud to the person next to you. When was the last time you used that word to describe something? It’s almost 2025. Many of SBTI ghg reduction targets were set at or before 2021. We have 5 more years before the 2030 reduction targets “have” to be met. What have these “corporate leaders” collectively achieved so far? Let alone the corporations and businesses who haven’t set a SBTi 🎯…. CDP, SASB Standards , Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB)? Or perhaps we ask the sage interpretors of the above disclosures (many of which have no financial conflicts of interst🥸) such as Morningstar Sustainalytics or Bloomberg or FTSE Russell, An LSEG Business or ISS | Institutional Shareholder Services or MSCI Inc. or Refinitiv or RepRisk or S&P Global or Sustainalytics or Thomson Reuters or Dow Jones Risk & Compliance or Corporate Knights or KLD LLP or Moody's Ratings or EcoVadis or my Aunt? Can you please tell us: 💥 For SBTI target setting companies, what is the % increase in net: a) revenues b) operating costs c) profits d) SCOPE 1 GHG emissions e) SCOPE 2 GHG emissions f) SCOPE 3 GHG emissions For the following time periods: a) ‘baseline’ target year to the end of 2023 b) change year over year Next, could you do the same for companies who DID not set a SBTI target? If data is available. Hmmm…sounds like I need to write a grant proposal.

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Here's a great update on what is happening with perovskites for PV panels. This follows our discussion on the topic at our last MeetUp on March 28. Looks like we will be hearing a lot more about perovskites as a way to improve performance and lower costs of PV panels. https://lnkd.in/gHpv79Gy

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Weather independent baseload reliable 365 day a year energy is what Canada needs!

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"This updated (LCFS) framework will allow renewable natural gas to continue to displace dirty diesel, reduce methane emissions, and eventually produce zero-emission fuels such as hydrogen," Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas Director of Public Policy Sam Wade said in a statement. Earthjustice said the changes didn't go far enough to move California’s transportation system away from combustion fuels to electrification, and that they backslid in some areas. “These proposed changes show that CARB is not seriously tackling reforms to this incredibly dated program to make it actually work for California,” said Nina Robertson, attorney on Earthjustice’s Right To Zero campaign. https://lnkd.in/gWSh-XeV #LCFS #LowCarbonFuel #RenewableGas #RenewableNaturalGas #RNG #CleanFuels #Leadership #Education #Advocacy #Development #Sustainability

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Myth: SA does not have a #RenewableEnergy or #batterystorage industry. Reality: A vibrant ecosystem of manufacturing companies exists in the country! Below is a non-exhaustive list of SA Inc in the RE and BESS value chains More info in the TIPS (NPC) Policy Brief here: https://t.co/kD2Jk54SYu

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⚡ #NuclearEnergy is another source of income for #russia: 🔦 #Rosatom uses a Dutch subsidiary to move "hundreds of millions in profits" ❗ Rosatom controls over 40% of the global uranium market and 17% of the international reactor fuel. 🔌 Through its Dutch subsidiary, Rosatom continues to actively extract raw materials in Kazakhstan and Tanzania. The funds are then routed through the #Netherlands before being transferred to russia. 🔔 In 2022 it made a profit of $240.6 million, of which tens of millions were transferred to the parent company in russia. 🚏 Report: Uranium trading has been generating a "substantial revenue" for the Russian treasury annually, Rosatom contributed over 3.1 billion euros in taxes in 2022. 🛑 Despite this significant influx of funds into the state treasury, Rosatom has not been subjected to European #sanctions. https://lnkd.in/e6ACyX_R

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"Xi Jinping’s report to the 20th Party Congress included a proposal to “speed up the planning and development of a system for new energy sources”. The proposed system stands in contrast to today’s one based on fossil fuels. 'New' means a new energy mix – with the share of energy from non-fossil sources continuing to grow – and also new institutional mechanisms, established to ensure energy security by supporting the supply of energy and dispatching of reserves. Establishing the new energy system is dependent on a new power system. At the end of March 2023, the proportion of China’s installed generating capacity from non-fossil energy sources reached 50.9%, exceeding for the first time the installed capacity for fossil-fuel power. The need for a new power system is increasingly pressing, with the proportion of electricity from wind power, solar PV and other new energy sources steadily increasing. Particularly critical, in the power system, are the allocation and transmission of electricity among regions. These are matters that the power market reforms urgently need to address. In China the development of the electricity market began with medium- to long-term (MLT) electricity trading. These markets, which dominate at present, theoretically have the advantage of stabilizing electricity prices and averting risk. However, without spot prices and day-ahead prices as a reference, and with trading framed by contract, there is lack of flexibility for adjustments. Spot trading of electricity helps discover electricity’s real-time prices, better reflects supply-and-demand and market costs in real time, and can bring surplus capacity, not subject to MLT contracts, into the real-time market, to compete on the grid. If in the future we can expand the inter-provincial spot trading of new energy from a market perspective and make good use of load-curve differences among regions across time zones, then we will be able to smooth out new-energy power-generation curves on a broader geographical and temporal scale, helping to tackle surpluses and shortages across regions." #energytransition #china #spottrading #crossbordertrade #transmission #powersystem #realtimemarket #worldgameworkshop #worldgrid

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Fundamentally, agrivoltaics involves elevating solar panels (five to ten feet above ground) to accommodate plant growth underneath. Strategically positioned panels optimize sunlight filtration, while clusters are spaced for equipment accessibility and supplemental sunlight. This configuration supports diverse agricultural applications, including sheep grazing, vineyards, varied crop production, and pollinator conservation. In India, agrivoltaics remains to not extensively implemented, necessitating heightened awareness and education. Effective implementation exceeds mere plant growth under panels; pilot projects are essential to initiate agrivoltaics development. The Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP) Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) UNDP in Asia and the Pacific UNDP in India GIZ India Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Clean Energy Access Network International Solar Alliance

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We have a report out today on the cost-effectiveness of fuel reduction for wildfire mitigation in California, which indicates that the net benefits of large-scale fuel reduction are on the order of at least several billion dollars annually. https://lnkd.in/e9ApptXB Our analysis found that if fuel reductions are able to reduce economic losses proportionately to their observed effect on fire intensity, then the economic benefits of fuel reduction treatments are likely to far outstrip their costs. California has a goal of reducing fuels on 1 million acres per year. If this were conducted in order of cost-effectiveness, meeting this goal would cost $3 billion annually but would confer a benefit of $10.9 billion annually for a net benefit of $7.9 billion annually. Furthermore, we quantified the cost of inaction and found that each year of delay in scaling up fuel treatment to 1 million acres per year results in a net loss of $4 billion. We also estimated that the optimal rate of fuel reduction in California—the rate that maximizes the net annual economic benefit—is approximately 3.9 million acres per year or 3.9 times the state’s articulated goal. At a fuel reduction rate of 3.9 million acres per year, and using our conservative central economic input parameters, the annual cost of fuel reduction would be $10.5 billion, but it would confer a benefit of $22.2 billion annually a net benefit of $11.6 billion annually. We tested the robustness of these findings with a wide range of assumptions regarding the baseline economic burden of wildfires and the costs of fuel treatments. We found that if the economic burden from wildfires is substantially higher than third-party estimates and the cost of treatment is relatively low, then the net benefit of fuel reduction can be as high as $50 billion per year. We also found that third-party estimates of the economic burden from wildfires would have to be overestimated by 3X-5X, & estimates of the cost of treatment would have to be substantially underestimated for the net benefit to not be on the order of at least $1 billion annually. Overall, our results constitute strong evidence that the net benefits of fuel reduction and the cost of delay in scaling up fuel reduction are on the order of at least several billion dollars annually. Thus, these results support a clear economic rationale for the rapid scale-up of fuel reduction efforts in California to at least the state’s articulated goal of 1 million acres per year, with greater benefits to be obtained with even more ambitious goals.

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Joshua Antonini and Jason Hayes ignore grid storage as they falsely claim that reliance on wind and solar will leave people in the dark. Utility scale batteries, such as Tesla’s Megapack, are already economically viable without subsidies, are more reliable than coal plants, and obviate the fact that in any given location, sometimes the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. Liquid Metal batteries, such as those produced by Ambri, will soon be dirt cheap. Even without grid storage, the authors exaggerate the issue because the wind is always blowing in many grid-connected areas of the North America. If the authors know about grid storage, then they are deliberately deceptive. If they are ignorant of grid storage, then they are incompetent or lazy or both. Today, in 2024, we can easily build a 100% clean and renewable electricity grid with solar, wind, and utility scale batteries. No coal plants or natural gas plants are needed and no subsidies are needed.

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Wind energy is highly significant in the current energy landscape. The US has a record-high 366 GW of wind capacity in transmission interconnection queues, with 120 GW offshore and 49 GW in hybrid plants pairing wind with storage or PV. This growth highlights wind energy's crucial role in the renewable energy sector. More coming Radia.com

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