Adi Blum

Needless to say, the next occupant of the White House will play a crucial role in shaping energy policies that extend well beyond 🇺🇸U.S. borders. With the 2024 🇺🇸Presidential election too close to call, the stakes for global energy geopolitics are high: ✅ Kamala Harris champions clean energy while emphasizing domestic oil production. ☑ Donald Trump resurrects “Drill, baby, drill” while planning to reverse Biden's climate agenda. This election's outcome will influence international energy markets, shaping everything from renewable investments to oil and gas regulations. The decisions made could alter the path of the energy transition and impact the economy. For a full analysis, read: https://lnkd.in/e3AirDth Written by Francesco Sassi and published on EklipX Research 🤔 What do you think? How will the new administration's energy policies shape the future? Map Source: Washington Post #EnergyGeopolitics #USElections2024 #CleanEnergy #OilAndGas #ClimatePolicy #EnergyTransition #GlobalMarkets 

11

1 Comment

Reality is slowly setting in with energy markets regarding renewables. Shareholders of large companies are getting slammed. Causes? Largely, bad government policies and China. And the China part tracks back to bad government policies. Article -- Last week, Shell took a $780 million impairment after pausing construction on a Dutch plant that was meant to become one of Europe’s biggest biofuel facilities. BP abandoned plans for two out of five potential biofuel refineries . . . A glut of biofuels, particularly cheap Chinese imports, is squeezing profit margins. https://lnkd.in/eh4QeCEm

5

World energy demand has grown by nearly 15% over the last decade—with oil and natural gas demand growing by 12% over the same period. And with energy demand set to continue to grow, we’ll need every energy source—including oil and natural gas—to meet the world’s needs.

29

OIL MARKET UPDATE🚨: News doesn't rest with the closing bell. We saw this week a significant shift in Crude prices due to reduced Iran oil risks, alongside a stable term structure indicating sentiment-driven price formation over fundamental realities. Rory provides in-depth insights into flat crude prices, calendar spreads, inventories, refined products, and positioning data. Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/eUsTiwbk by Rory Johnston from Commodity Context on EklipX Research. #OOTT #Oil #Trading #marketupdate #marketinsights

23

1 Comment

As the noise around the US election reaches fever pitch in the coming weeks; partnerships on the energy transition between government, the private sector and finance must rise above the rhetoric and get down to business. https://lnkd.in/eu6Pgmrg Read the full article on Environmental Finance here: https://lnkd.in/dDMnpuGq

19

The argument over #carbonoffsets continues. Whether you are a purist or pragmatists on the debate, the clearer the rules and guidelines, the more certainty there is in the market. With the new guidance from the US piled on top of the plethora of standard setting bodies, registries and associations like the VCMI, are we there yet? According to some…the new rules from President Joe Biden will help…”Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, writes that the “Biden administration’s new plan to overhaul the voluntary carbon market is an important step forward”. He says: “Right now, the market for credits is opaque and riddled with inefficiency. Buyers can’t be sure which credits are credible, projects often don’t deliver what they promise and sellers can’t be held accountable. This lack of transparency also opens the door for greenwashing, where companies claim to be making a much bigger difference than they are, which fuels public scepticism about the potential for private-sector leadership. As a result, the market for carbon credits is much smaller – and far less productive – than it should be…For markets to work well, they must be transparent, trusted and standardised – three qualities that have largely eluded the market for carbon credits.” #decarbonization #gigacorn #gigacornhunter #climatechange #carbon Bloomberg

21

4 Comments

Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have all announced significant investments in nuclear energy. Who will benefit from the next power cycle? Two main themes in the power market are colliding, creating outsized moves in power gen stocks, igniting the next cycle for grid investments and gas and nuclear generation. 1. Demand, which has been muted for the past 20 years, is inflecting upwards. Reshoring and EVs are meaningful tailwinds, but Data Center demand is the icing on the cake, expected to grow from ~3% of Power Demand in ‘23 to >10%. 2. A significant amount of baseload capacity has come out of the supply base (e.g., coal), and renewables are filling the void. In turn, reliability is a main focus, reflected in the upturn in “reserve margins,” the price paid for capacity that is ‘sitting on the sidelines’ in case of a need. Will there be enough electricity to meet the incremental demand? Join us for a webinar to find out! 🕛Nov 13 at 12PM ET We will cover: 📒 Data Center 101: Understand the power consumption of Data Centers and key considerations for adding capacity, including location and fuel sources. 📈 Future Demand Projections: Analyze expected incremental baseload demand from Data Centers ☢️Fuel Comparison: Dive into a detailed comparison of Gas and Nuclear energy solutions that will fill the impending gap in baseload generation. ⚡Value Chain Insights: Explore the intricate value chain from fuel source to consumer, highlighting key players like Cameco Corporation, GE Vernova, Siemens, Fluor Corporation, Jacobs, Eaton, and Schneider Electric. 🪫Emerging Technologies: Learn about groundbreaking technologies such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), focusing on NuScale Power and Oklo Inc, and Energy Storage, focusing on Tesla. 💡 Market Impact: Assess the ramifications for power generation and Independent Power Producers, including insights on Constellation, Vistra Corp., and NRG Energy. Save your spot here: https://lnkd.in/e8N_gvwF

24

According to the recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report, #renewables are projected to account for approximately 46% of global #electricitygeneration by 2030, with #solar and #wind contributing ~30%. #Renewable capacity is expected to reach 5,500 GW by the end of the decade, with #solar and #wind making up 95% of this expansion, driven by declining costs and supportive policies. As the global #energytransition accelerates, China’s role continues to be a focal point. By 2030, China is expected to add over 1,200 GW of #renewablecapacity, accounting for nearly 60% of the global renewable expansion. Remarkably, China will hold close to 50% of the world’s total #renewableenergy capacity.

21

1 Comment

"In Asia, spot LNG prices surged to their highest levels in over eight months, reaching $14.10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). This spike was largely driven by sustained warmer-than-expected temperatures across the region, particularly in northeast Asia. The heatwave has led to increased power demand for cooling, with South Korea nearing record power usage levels. The prolonged hot weather, along with concerns over dwindling terminal LNG stocks, has extended the summer cooling demand period, delaying the usual transition to winter stockpiling. Forecasts suggest that above-average temperatures will persist in both East and Southeast Asia, further supporting elevated LNG demand." Global LNG WeekAhead and more, subscribe to Rubber Stamp: https://lnkd.in/ehaPPS78 Published on EklipX Research #china #LNG #Gas #TTF #Europe #Energy #energypolicy #commodity #trading

6

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is misunderstood. There are 41 commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects currently operating, according to the Global CCS Institute. Perhaps surprisingly, very few of these #CCS projects were developed with the climate in mind. The majority take the #CO2 produced as a by-product from natural gas processing, and if oil field operators are located close by, simply supply it to them for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). Other sectors where CCS has been applied on a commercial basis, albeit in smaller numbers, include bioethanol, fertiliser, power generation, and oil refining. The historical motivation to capture CO2 for non-climate reasons underpins almost every misunderstanding there is about CCS. For example, commentators have been quick to criticise the cost of capture, the lower than advertised capture rate, and the challenge in scaling up CCS capacity. However, the move towards regulated carbon markets for CCS represents a structural break from the commercial origins of the CCS industry. And while there is much to learn from the historical experience, we need to be careful not to taint the need for future CCS capacity based on the experience of a relatively small number of unrepresentative CCS plants. Remember, keeping global temperature increases within 1.5°C will depend on a massive expansion in CCS. Looking across 95 IPCC scenarios compatible with this climate target reveals a significant variation in the call on CCS by 2050, ranging from zero (one scenario) to almost 25 Gt per annum. The average is close to 10 Gt per annum. To read more, subscribe at: https://lnkd.in/e2iDc8vk Written by Peter Sainsbury and published on EklipX Research #carbon #voluntarycarbon #carbonstorage #climate #co2target

3

The Energy Implications of AI Growth Recently, Google inked a deal with Kairos power for 500 megawatts from small modular reactors with the aim to power its data centers with clean nuclear energy. On similar lines, Amazon acquired a nuclear-powered data center in Pennsylvania earlier this year. These investments reflect a growing urgency to power to its energy needs due to skyrocketing demands from AI, cloud computing and digital services. Primarily, AI is changing the tech landscape at a very rapid pace with data centers at the core. These data centers that consume about 1-2% are set to see their share double by 2030. This rapid rise in electricity consumption is fueled by computational intensity of AI workloads. To put this into perspective, A single Chat GPT query consumes roughly 2.9 watt-hours, that is almost 10 times the google search. Goldman Sachs projects that AI-driven tasks will account for nearly 19% of data center power consumption by 2028, adding around 200 terawatt-hours annually. This increase is as good as adding the entire power usage of a country like Spain to the grid every year. Data center emission could literally double by the end of 2030 which could lead to increased carbon emissions, imposing a social cost of $140 billion in terms of environmental impact and climate change. Despite efforts to enhance energy efficiency, it could not keep up with the rapid pace of AI. This entire scenario leads to nuclear energy as a viable option for tech companies seeking reliable energy needs. Although, renewables like solar and wind energy are also expanding, intermittency is still a challenge. Google’s move to source 500 megawatts from SMRs and Microsoft's activation of the Three Mile Island plant show a commitment to embracing nuclear as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels. The next decade seems like a critical time for balancing the benefits of AI and the environmental cost to it. For instance, US power demand is expected to grow at 2.4% CAGR by 2030, out of which 0.9% comes from Data Centers. In Europe, the situation is even more dramatic, with a potential 50% rise in electricity demand over the next decade, that could require unto $1 trillion in infrastructure upgrades to keep up. This brings us to interesting times with a paradigm shift in the energy sector primarily driven by AI. Tech giants like Google, Amazon and Microsoft are injecting billions into data centers and AI infrastructure world wide. In India context, Amazon has already committed to investing $12.7 billion in cloud infrastructure in India by 2030, and Microsoft plans to spend $3.7 billion to establish data centers in Telangana. The impact of AI and the subsequent impact on the energy sector will be a theme to watch out for in the five years. Views are personal

14

Changing the world’s energy system “is a process that should be measured in decades, or generations, not years”. #energytransition #inflation #energy #energypolicy #commodities #commoditytrading

35

3 Comments

IsoEnergy (ISO) making a bid for Anfield Energy (AEC) is the latest signal that the company is prioritizing developments and expansion plans in the US vs the A-Basin. Should the transaction close in December, ISO would more than double its current US inventory base, providing additional future feedstock to the White Mesa Mill (toll milling agreement with UUUU). This geographical shift was recently emphasized given the departure of President Tim Gabruch who was instrumental in all the Athabasca Basin developments. Let's see when actual production will follow because the Shootaring Canyon Mine (part of Anfield) will not be in use for the foreseeable future. #uranium #nuclear #greentransition #economics #equityresearch #investmentbanking #netzero ***Not investment advice, just opinion, observation & analysis. Pls note the disclaimer*** https://lnkd.in/gpBqhspd

1

Great work from the always insightful Ben Cahill - also part of EDF's recent research program on sources of financial influence on National Oil Companies (NOCs) and their methane reduction efforts. Especially noting his point "Money is rarely the problem", he's emphasizing what I think we all found in different ways, which is that there is sufficient - and sometimes, more than ample - supply of capital to NOCs from public markets, governments and other private sources. Wise words re structuring capital with conditions related to methane abatement - mixed experience so far and continued experimentation in process.

17

1 Comment

This piece reminds me, once again, of the importance of quality longform journalism. Julian Spector frames the opposing "takes" on the #ercot #bess #energystorage (bulls vs. bears) very effectively here, with insightful support from the proverbial "smartest guy in the room" on the topic (Zubaty). I land on the bull side. The fallacy of confusing "storage projects in the queue" for "future capacity" is at the heart of this view. Few would disagree that the fundamentals of i) load growth, and ii) increasingly intermittent energy mix offer a very compelling backdrop for continued excellent BESS returns. The countervailing force is, of course, the supply of new storage installations expected in the years to come. There will be a lot, that is certain. But if history is any indication, it will be less than queue-based predictions would have you believe. You know what few do? Compare "actuals" to previously projected capacity buildouts. As the article notes, BloombergNEF estimates that the 2024 tally will be 4.3 GW of BESS capacity additions. EIA guesses 6.4 GW. I went back 5 years and looked at EIA's 1-year-prior and 2-years-prior projections for ERCOT BESS capacity additions and compared that to what actually happened. 10 out of 10 of those projections were higher than the actual. Some were pretty close (for example their 2022 prediction for 2023 additions was only ~5% high), but a few were off by 50%+. (I haven't sleuthed around for the same BNEF comparison yet). This matches the "felt" experience as a market participant. Rumors of the imminent saturation of the ERCOT storage market are usually greatly exaggerated. I believe this is because they rest on a false premise: faster/more capacity buildout than what comes to pass. As I've mentioned before, I believe this arises from a fundamental lack of appreciation for how hard it is to shepherd a project to placed-in-service. The low barriers of entry in ERCOT are conflated with ease of development/EPC/financing execution. Not to mention a failure to appreciate what it takes to pull off the successful operation of an ERCOT BESS asset - specifically optimizing the revenue line. It's hard. Yes, even with your "proprietary algorithm". This systemic analytical "trap" is actually rather welcome for those of us continuing to develop and build ERCOT storage - it keeps the opportunity window open. But in the long run, I'd rather the confusion around this dissipate, so that the market find some footing beyond the always-over-correcting-one-way-or-the-other state it's in now. https://lnkd.in/eKaHeqYu

38

1 Comment

An intriguing alternative to state control over a strategy to replace and then retire energy extraction from hydrocarbons is fiduciary financing for a new global initiative to buy up hydrocarbons companies from private equity ownership for profit extraction through gain on sale in the capital markets and place them into fiduciary stewardship where they will be directed to become and supported in being positive contributors to a new global strategy to rapidly redesign and reconstruct our global energy supply ecosystem to be purpose-rebuilt for energy sufficiency complete with habitat longevity and social equity in a planetary scale in the 21st Century and beyond…

1

Funding Notice: Nearly $50 Million Funding Opportunity for Offshore Wind National and Regional Research and Development: The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) announced the Offshore Wind National and Regional Research and Development Funding Opportunity, which will award $48.6 million for projects that address several major areas of need for offshore wind. The areas include accelerating research and development of floating offshore wind platforms; exploring innovations for fixed-bottom foundations; improving offshore wildlife protection through new monitoring technologies; expanding the reach of the domestic supply chain; advancing U.S. academic leadership in floating offshore wind; and investigating solutions to protect future infrastructure from lightning. This funding opportunity represents one of DOE’s single largest investments in offshore wind, comprised of $48 million in funding from WETO with $600,000 in funding support from the U.S. Department of the Interior’s (DOI) Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Together, successful projects addressing the following topic areas under this funding opportunity announcement (FOA) will speed up the use of wind power off U.S. coasts and contribute to a robust clean energy economy driven by a carbon-free power sector. https://lnkd.in/grwrDd5q

3

Investment bankers around the world are starting to pay attention to the growth potential of nuclear energy as part of the ongoing clean energy transition. A May 15 article in International Banker titled "SMALL MODULAR REACTORS ARE PAVING THE WAY FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY’S RENAISSANCE" highlights the reasons why customers want nuclear power as part of their energy supply. https://lnkd.in/eqhAvaZt A careful read provides a new perspective on the ongoing discussion about reactor sizes within the community of nuclear advocates. At a high level, the existence of a vibrant new sector of small and advanced reactors broadens the base of nuclear energy interest and support. If extra large reactors are the only product available, a large fraction of the world tunes out. Only the largest countries, companies and banks believe they can participate. But with near term availability of nuclear projects in a wide range of sizes, a substantially larger portion of the world's decision makers can begin to see nuclear energy expansion as something they should care about. Aside: "Decision makers" as a broad term that encompasses the smallest customers up to the world's most powerful politicians and everyone in between. End Aside. Broader interest in nuclear stimulated by new designs does not eliminate or even reduce interest in large reactors when those are the appropriate answer. SMRs and AMRs merely provide a welcome mat and a wide entry gate. #Uranium fission plays a key role in energy security, energy abundance and energy cleanliness. Its characteristics make it attractive for business, financial and political leaders from across a spectrum of priorities. Almost by accident, the International Banker article makes a compelling case for Japan to invest to regain its status as one of the world's most competent nuclear power plant suppliers, both domestically and for export. While Japan already has almost two dozen completed reactors that can be put back into operation in the next few years, their combined output is described as woefully insufficient to meet the nation's CO2 emission targets and energy supply needs. "If [reactor restarts are] successful, they can provide about 14 percent of Japan’s electricity mix by 2030, far from the government’s goals." The obvious answer would be "start building more now." In its prime, the Japanese nuclear plant construction industry was beginning to complete large modular reactors in less than 4 years. Money is the most important fuel for nuclear power development. When international bankers start paying attention, we're making real progress. Disclosure: At https://lnkd.in/e8GsSmTK we're professionally engaged in gathering monetary fuel and adding it to the nascent, high growth-potential advanced nuclear sector. Please visit to learn more about adding nuclear energy to your investment portfolio.

9