A Power Move by Syria's Rebel Forces

by Valerie Szybala

Earlier today, a new merger of rebel forces was announced in Syria. While the seemingly endless string of mergers and splits among the Syrian rebels can be difficult to follow, this particular announcement is significant. The new Islamic Front has the potential to finally be the unified fighting force that the Syrian rebels have been waiting for.

The Brigades

The seven rebel brigades that form the founding members of the Islamic Front include some of the country’s strongest groups. Ideologically they span the Islamist spectrum from those who have called for a modern, moderate state with a foundation of Islamic law, to those who have called for a state with strict interpretation of Sharia law and have at times appeared to have more in common with the al-Qaeda affiliates than with their fellow Syrian rebels.


Suqur al-Sham – Suqur al-Sham was founded in 2011 and is based in Idlib province. It was a member of the moderate Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF), which came under the umbrella of the western-back Supreme Military Council (SMC). The group’s leader, Ahmad Eissa, was named as the head of the new Islamic Front. Eissa has previously called for a moderate Islamic state that is not imposed on society. Though its forces are formidable, Suqur al-Sham is by no means the strongest brigade in this alliance, making the choice of Eissa as leader notable. The group has had recent trouble with the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS).


Liwa al-Tawhid – Liwa al-Tawhid is by most accounts the strongest group in Aleppo, estimated to have around 11,000 fighters. It was formed in July 2012 as a merger of smaller militias in the area. Although they have cooperated with the more extremist groups in battle, they have espoused a moderate Islamic ideology and were respected by other rebel groups. This was demonstrated in September when they were called in to mediate fighting between ISIS and an FSA-linked brigade in the northern city of Azaz. Their former military commander Abdel Qader Saleh had previously stated that he wants a modern Islamic state with a basis in Sharia law, but with civilian rule, elections, and minority protection.


Jaysh al-Islam – Jaysh al-Islam, based in the Damascus area, was created in late September 2013 when Liwa al-Islam consolidated its power by subsuming dozens of other brigades. Liwa al-Islam had previously been a member of the SILF and therefore had fallen under the SMC’s umbrella, but made it clear that it was breaking completely with the SMC in its new incarnation. In recent weeks it has received criticism from ISIS for pulling out of several battles, pushing Jaysh al-Islam to make a public rebuttal.


Ahrar al-Sham – Ahrar al-Sham was the leading member of the Syrian Islamic Front (SIF), an umbrella coalition of more hardline Islamic groups, unaffiliated with the SMC. Though it is still widely referred to as Ahrar al-Sham, the full name for the group is Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya, which it took on in January of this year when Ahrar al-Sham consolidated several groups into one. Ahrar al-Sham is one of the more extreme Syrian rebel groups, and has a Salafi jihadist ideology. Its leader, Hassan Aboud has stated that democracy is a tool of the west and Sharia is the only acceptable option. This group frequently fights in close cooperation with both of the al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria, and has also been one of the few rebel groups to regularly hold al-Qaeda style advocacy tents, trying to win over the Syrian people to their philosophy. Ahrar al-Sham is also one of the few groups that operates on a national level and is strong on several different fronts.


Ansar al-Sham – Ansar al-Sham was also a member of the SIF, and operates mainly in Latakia. It has not been as public with statements of its ideology as some of the other brigades, leading to speculation that it may not have a solid command and control structure among its various units. If its ideology can be gleaned from the founding charter of the SIF, it wants to topple the regime and create an Islamic state based on Sharia law. Notably, the charter does clearly state that the SIF's approach “is one of centrism and moderation. It is far from religious fanaticism and its resulting deviation of creed and action;” and makes specific mention of women’s rights. Although it is difficult to know how much of these words are aspirational rather than reflective of reality. Like Ahrar al-Sham, Ansar al-Sham has put some effort towards prosthelytizing and civil works.


Liwa al-Haq – Liwa al-Haq formed in August 2012 as a merger of other rebel brigades in Homs, and was also a member of SIF. Its founders have claimed that is not a Salafi jihadist group, and its members have a range of ideologies (which is probably true for all of the brigades in Syria). It is one of the smaller groups in this alliance.


Kurdish Islamic Front – By most accounts this is a very small fighting force, numbering less than 1,000 fighters. The Kurdish Islamic Front has fought with the al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria against the Kurdish YPG fighting forces. Coming on the heels of the recent announcement by the YPG of an interim Kurdish government in Hasaka – a move which was widely condemned by other rebels as an attempt to break up the country – the Kurdish Islamic Front’s inclusion in this new alliance is most likely a message to the YPG not to get too comfortable.


Admittedly, Syria’s armed opposition has faced challenges in unifying in the past. The atomized nature of the rebel forces is a product of the organic roots of the Syrian uprising. But changes in the conflict have forced the rebels to evolve in order to survive. One result of this evolution has been the increasing drive for unification among the internal fighting forces, independent of the political leadership-in-exile which has failed to provide the amount of support that the fighting groups have so desperately needed. The increase in foreign elements in the conflict, on both sides, has accelerated this evolution. Smaller, scattered, local rebel brigades have been unable to compete with the al-Qaeda affiliates – particularly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham – which have demonstrated the ability to operate at a national level. On the other side, this year has seen a tremendous influx of pro-regime foreign fighters in the form of Hezbollah members, Iraqi Shi’ite militias, and Iranian trainers and strategists. These forces have significantly boosted the strength and fighting capabilities of the regime, which was operating with greatly diminished strength as of the end of 2012.


There have been a number of notable mergers among the rebel groups this year, particularly in the months since the August 21st chemical weapons attack. Some of those attempts have been successful, like Jaysh al-Islam, while others, like the September 24th Islamic Alliance, have fallen apart quickly. But with every attempt the rebel brigades have been learning important lessons about what they need to do to succeed in forming a larger rebel army, and the Islamic Front announced earlier today demonstrates this clearly. Notably, this group does not include either of the al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria. Also, in the announcement they were clear state that this was intended to be a full merger and not just another coordinating body. Both of these moves were intended to avoid the pitfalls that plagued previous mergers.


After the creation of Jaysh al-Islam under Zahran Alloush on September 29th, it was clear that the western-backed Supreme Military Council (SMC) was in trouble. General Salim Idris reportedly cut short a trip to France to rush back to Turkey to try to salvage the SMC with a reorganization that would be more inclusive of local leaders and give Zahran Alloush a seat at the table. But eventually this initiative died out, and shortly afterwards the social media chatter about an imminent rebel alliance of the country’s strongest brigades began. Then came the death of Liwa al-Tawhid’s military commander, Abdel Qader al-Saleh, in a regime airstrike near Aleppo over the weekend. Al-Saleh was a well-respected, charismatic leader, and it was rumored that he would be named as the leader of the new alliance. The loss of Abdel Qader al-Saleh is doubtless a blow to this unification, but despite this setback it seems that the groundwork had been fully laid and with some reorganization behind the scenes, the brigades went ahead with their announcement and subsequent interview live on Al Jazeera.

Implications

The creation of the new Islamic Front is a double-edged sword:


On one hand, this may be the nail in the coffin of the SMC. The western-backed umbrella group was wobbly enough after the resignation of a leading northern commander and the failed negotiations to bring Jaysh al-Islam back into the fold. With the additional losses of Suqur al-Sham and Liwa al-Tawhid it is hard to imagine that the SMC can now survive with any semblance of legitimacy or power on the ground. Additionally, the fact that it is an “Islamic” alliance and includes some of Syria’s truly hardline elements is worrisome, since it could mean that this new union will push the more moderate groups in that direction.


On the other hand, this new Islamic Front does not include either of the al-Qaeda affiliated groups in Syria. And as the Islamic Front has now set itself up as the most powerful rebel group in the country, it seems that they may attempt to sideline al-Qaeda and reclaim the Syrian insurgency. Around the same time of the merger announcement, Liwa al-Haq published a statement to clarify its views that seems to support this possibility. In the statement they say that while they appreciate ISIS for its support in fighting against the regime, they do not acknowledge the ISIS brothers as legitimate leaders for Syria. Additionally, the fact that Ahmad Eissa of Suqur al-Sham was named as the leader of the Islamic Front over commanders from more powerful brigades may be a sign that the Islamic Front will attempt to stay on the more moderate end of the spectrum.


This new group will be built gradually over the next three months as the brigades work towards integrating their organizational structures. We can also expect to see more rebel units joining the Islamic Front in the coming days, as they have indicated that they are current reviewing requests from prospective members. If they start to announce the addition of other power players like the Farouq Brigades, the Furqan Brigades, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Battalions, it will be a good indication that the Islamic Front is here to stay. Even as it stands with the current members, the new group will have an estimated 45,000 fighters, and span critical battlefronts that including Damascus, Homs, Idlib, Latakia, and Aleppo.


Another thing to watch for will be the response of the SMC leadership. FSA spokesman Louay Meqdad has already reached out an olive branch, saying that: “the alliance is welcomed because it represents a combined set of interests of the Syrian people. The SMC is not opposed to alliances that draw people together under the hope for a protective and democratic future Syria. They [the SMC] do not wish to discount such alliances that are not in nature harmful to those values.”

Developments in Syria’s Armed Opposition

by Valerie Szybala

On September 24, 2013, a document entitled “Statement No. 1” was published on al-Tawhid’s website in which 11 fighting groups – including a number under the umbrella of the SMC and the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra – announced a call to unity under an Islamic framework based on Sharia law, rejecting the transitional government of the Syrian National Council under the leadership of Ahmed Tohme (detailed in a previous post).  While this “Islamic alliance” itself does not appear to have materialized into a tangible coalition, the move did spark a flurry of behind-the-scenes maneuvering that may have very real implications for the rebel forces and for the future of Syria.

• In the days immediately following the announcement on September 24, there was a notable lack of public reaction from many key players, including Jabhat al-Nusra, General Salim Idris, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). 
• On September 26, SMC head General Salim Idris announced he would end his visit to France early to head to Syria to “follow up with the field commanders and work toward unifying all the ranks,” referring to the eleven rebel leaders who signed the document.
• The next day, Jabhat al-Nusra renounced its participation in the Islamic alliance statement, noting that although an ISIS local commander signed the document, it was not approved by their central leadership, and that they rejected the attempt to create controversy between them and ISIS.
• On September 29, 2013 a new coalition was formed, called Jaysh al-Islam (Army of Islam). In a professionally-produced ceremony in the Damascus area, the leaders of 50 brigades pledged allegience to Sheikh Zahran Alloush, the leader of Liwa al-Islam, and a complete list of the 50 brigades consolidating under Jaysh al-Islam was published in both Arabic and English. Although many of these units were already operating under the leadership of Liwa al-Islam, this move reinforced their status as one of the strongest fighting groups in Syria. Jaysh al-Islam does not include the al-Qaeda affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, and rejects the leadership in exile of the SNC. Liwa al-Islam, and by extension Jaysh al-Islam, is backed by Saudi Arabia. 
• Shortly after Jaysh al-Islam was announced, Ahrar al-Sham (the leader of the non-FSA Syrian Islamic Front and also one of the strongest fighting groups in Syria, which is not part of the newly-formed Jaysh al-Islam) – published a statement that along with two other brigades it was withdrawing from a Damascus Operations Room that had been formed only a week earlier among six groups, under the leadership of Zahran Alloush of Liwa al-Islam. This operations room was made possible through funding provided by a group of Kuwaiti Sheikhs called the Council of Supporters of the Syrian Revolution in Kuwait. Ahrar al-Sham's announcement pointed to the existence of tension between Operations Room's six members over their leadership structure and decision-making process, indicating a struggle for dominance. 
• On September 30, Abu Muhammad al-'Adnani, spokesman for ISIS, released an audio speech entitled, "May Allah be with you, Oh Oppressed State." In the speech Adnani accused the media of conspiring against ISIS by launching false accusations, making ISIS look more ruthless than it is, and downplaying the group’s victories. It seems clear from this defensive and angry statement that ISIS is feeling the impacts of political criticism and more direct measures being taken against it on the ground.
• On October 2, a statement was released by six of Syria’s most powerful brigades regarding the fighting that has been going on in Azaz between ISIS and the FSA-linked Asifat al-Shamal. Notably, the signatories included rebel power players Liwa al-Tawhid, Ahrar al-Sham, and the newly consolidated Jaysh al-Islam. The statement called for a ceasefire, for ISIS to withdraw to their headquarters, and for the matter to be handled by a Shari’a court in Aleppo. Thus far there has been no indication that ISIS is complying with the statement, and it is not clear if the signatories intend to take action to enforce it. But the fact that these units have coordinated their messaging is notable, and the anti-ISIS sentiment seems to be emerging as a coherent thread throughout the continued shifting and reorganization of rebel groups within the armed opposition.
• Also on October 2, we saw another notable reorganization as four brigades in the eastern part of Syria in Deir Ez-Zor broke ties with the FSA to form Jaysh Ahl al-Sunna. With a logo that closely resembles that of the new Jaysh al-Islam, it seems likely that they are closely linked.

There are several key takeaways that we can glean from this past week of shifting dynamics within Syria’s armed opposition:

• The Western-backed political opposition leadership is in trouble. Though the Islamic alliance announced by al-Tawhid on September 24 may not have amounted to much, it seems to have ignited a chorus of rejection by fighting groups of the Syrian National Council leadership in exile. Of the recent groups to have rejected the SNC leadership, Jaysh al-Islam and its affiliate in Deir Ez-Zor are likely to have staying power as they are already active in major offensives on the ground.

• Syria’s rebels are following the money. This burst of reorganization seems to be propelled in part by influential sources of support coming from the Gulf. Saudi Arabia in particular has been active behind the scenes in the past week. Publicly, their frustration with the weak response by Western allies bubbled to the surface when they took the unprecedented step of canceling their speech at the UN General Assembly.

• Rebel alliances are forming which, while not yet explicitly opposed to the two al-Qaeda linked groups in Syria, have in practice demonstrated the will to address ISIS in Azaz with the statement released on October 2. Jabhat al-Nusra has a better track record of cooperation with other members of the armed opposition, so it is encouraging that they are not a party to the most recent alliances and were quick to back away from the September 24 Islamic alliance statement which gave the appearance of grouping them in with other fighting groups as opposed to ISIS.

The wal-‘Adiyat Dabha Offensive in Southern Aleppo

by Charlie Caris and Isabel Nassief

A group of rebel brigades, led by Ahrar al-Sham and Liwa al-Tawheed, have launched an offensive called wal-‘Adiyat Dabha against regime-held towns south of Aleppo city. The offensive comes after several rebel gains in Aleppo over the last two months. Of the brigades involved, five are signatories to the recent Islamic alliance announced by the leader of Liwa al-Tawhid on September 24th.


This area of southern Aleppo was the site of a government offensive focused on securing airbases and supply lines while clearing surrounding towns. In late June, however, the regime was quickly forced to abandon its offensive and return troops to Homs, where rebels had been able to take advantage of the regime’s vulnerability. Since then rebels have made significant gains in Aleppo province, taking control of Khan al-Assal, a town on the western outskirts of Aleppo city, in July. On August 5th, rebel forces led by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham captured Menagh airbase, and later that month rebels also took control of the town of Khanassir, which sits on a critical government supply route between Homs and Aleppo city.


The current rebel offensive was announced on September 20th with the stated objective of “seizing control of the major and secondary supply routes” in the countryside south of Aleppo. The operation, entitled wal-‘Adiyat Dabha (a Quranic phrase roughly translated as “The Panting Chargers”) was advertised as a milestone in cooperation between various rebel battalions in and around Aleppo.


As rebel battalions began their assault last week, the operation gained traction on social media, and Youtube videos appeared bearing a distinct logo specifically designed for wal-‘Adiyat Dabha. The following day Ahrar al-Sham, one of the most prominent partners in the operation, circulated a map showing villages south of Aleppo that the rebels wanted to wrest from regime control. The operational plan, as shown on the map, depicts rebel forces advancing from the west, south, and east, near a regime defense factory, and continuing on towards southern Aleppo city and Nayrab military air base. In the six days since the operation began, rebel forces appear to have stayed true to the map, and claim to have liberated at least 25 villages south of Aleppo city. The newly-liberated villages are: Kafr Hout, al-Zara’a, Kafr Kar, Banan al-Has, Sarj Far’a, Balouza, Burj A’zawi, Madrasa village, Im Jaran, Qanatrat, Samaria, Maghriyat al-Shebli, al-Mayan, al-Manatir, Rasm al-Safa, Rasm Humud, Mazra’a Ali Hussein, Diyman, Sada’aya, Rasm al-Shih, Mazra’a al-Ayoub, Rasm al-Hilwa, Tayeba, Rasm ‘Akirish, and al-Safira.






Pro-Assad forces have responded to the rebel offensive by reinforcing regime strongholds near the airport, shelling contested areas such as as-Safira village, and deploying troops from Nayrab airbase to engage rebels directly in the contested villages. New reports show rebel-fired Grad rockets striking Aleppo International Airport on September 25th, and videos indicate that rebel forces continued to shore up liberated villages including the heavily-contested Madajin area, on September 26th.


Of the rebel battalions we have documented taking part in wal-‘Adiyat Dabha, Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, Liwa al-Ansar, Kata’ib Nour al-Din al-Zenki, and al-Furqa 19 (aka Liwa Amjad al-Islam) are all signatories to the recent “Islamic alliance.” Other participants include Jabhat al-Na’im al-Islami, Liwa Halab al-Madina al-Islami, Liwa Ahrar Souria, Kata’ib Abu Amara, and al-Furqa 9 Special Forces, although this list may not be exhaustive.


Since the timing and location of this offensive coincide with the newly-announced Islamic alliance and its membership significantly overlaps with the offensive participants, wal-‘Adiyat Dabha might in some respects be viewed as a showcase of the strength of the Islamic alliance signatories. Their capacity to successfully launch operations and gain territory in Aleppo may give the Islamic alliance members additional leverage in talks with General Salim Idris, Chief of Staff of the FSA’s Supreme Military Council (SMC), who has cut his trip to France short in order to meet with alliance members. It might also strengthen the position of alliance members in Aleppo ahead of an impending battle with ISIS, which has taken the border town of Azaz and may be blocking rebel re-supply from that route.


Heavy fighting was ongoing as of the time of writing, and we expect to see additional development as rebel and regime forces continue to maneuver for control of key supply routes throughout Aleppo province. For those who wish to follow reports of this battle on social media sites, “ضبحا العاديات” is the name of the offensive in Arabic. We are also looking for indicators that additional rebel battalions have signed on to the Islamic alliance. A likely candidate for admission is Liwa Ahrar Souria, whose official Facebook page recently removed the FSA symbol from their logo.

The Islamic Alliance Emerges

by Valerie Szybala

(Note: post updated 9/26/13)

A new coalition has formed among eleven Syrian rebel organizations, according to a statement that Liwa al-Tawhid released late on September 24. Liwa al-Tawhid has hitherto fallen under the umbrella of the Syrian Military Council. The new Islamic alliance – which includes some of the most powerful factions from the FSA, the Syrian Islamic Front, and also Jabhat al-Nusra –aims to fight to establish an Islamic state under Shari’a law in Syria. It also rejects the Syrian National Coalition and the leadership of Ahmad Tohme – recently elected as the head of the Syrian opposition’s interim government – by name. The signatories to the document claim to represent the following organizations:

Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, Suqor al-Sham, Liwa al-Islam, Harakat Fajr al-Sham al-Islamiya, Harakat al-Noor al-Islamiya, Kataib Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Ansar, Tajamu Fastaqm Kamr Umrat & Al-Forqat al-Tisaa Ashr

Initial reports on this event (and some still circulating) indicated that there were 13 brigades who signed on to the document instead of 11. The reason for this discrepancy is that the original text version of the brigade list posted on Liwa al-Tawhid’s website listed two additional brigades, although these brigade names did not appear on the scanned signature page of the hard copy of the document or in the list that was enumerated in the video announcement, and was subsequently removed from the website text. The two other brigades were Liwa al-Haqq (SIF, Homs area), and Liwa al-Forqaan (Quneitra area). According to a Tawhid brigade spokesman, both brigades were present for the drafting process but were not at the signing ceremony. Although some of the remaining brigades have a presence throughout the country, the strength of the 11 alliance signatories is concentrated largely in Aleppo, and the two additional brigades would have served to bolster their southern credentials.

The fact that this announcement comes amidst a spike in incidents in which the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has clashed with the Free Syrian Army units and, atypically, Syria’s other al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, raises the possibility that this new coalition is also a move against ISIS by its Syrian nationalist rivals.

This move follows a chain of events on the battlefield through which ISIS took the town of Azaz in Northern Aleppo and the nearby Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey, which serves as an important supply route for rebel forces and was previously held by a Free Syrian Army-linked brigade. The maneuver to take the border crossing began with an incident between local ISIS fighters and members of the FSA-linked Asifat al-Shamal brigade on September 18.





The timeline of events is as follows:

September 18, 2013
ISIS raided the al-Ahli hospital in Azaz to arrest a German doctor. When Asifat al-Shamal refused to hand the doctor over to ISIS, clashes broke out between the two groups and ISIS killed two Asifat al-Shamal fighters.
ISIS assassinated Amr Diab Hajulh, a media activist affiliated with Asifat al-Shamal. Asifat al-Shamal and activists in Azaz called for the Tawhid Brigade to intervene and join in the fight against ISIS.

September 19, 2013
Clashes broke out between ISIS and Asifat al-Shamal in Azaz. ISIS also raided the Azaz Media Center, interrupting their news coverage. The Tawhid brigade arrived in Azaz.
Liwa al-Tawhid mediated a ceasefire agreement between ISIS and Asifat al-Shamal and published it. The agreement was signed by Abu Abdelrahman al-Kuweiti (ISIS) and Captain Abu Ghazala Al Rashid (Asifat al-Shamal brigade). The agreement called for the release of prisoners held by ISIS within 24 hours and for the implementation of standard checkpoints monitored by al-Tawhid.

September 22, 2013
The Asifat al-Shamal military administration issued a statement saying the agreement was nullified because ISIS failed to release its prisoners after 48 hours.
ISIS released a statement accusing Asifat al-Shamal of treason citing several examples. Asifat al-Sham then wrote a response defending itself against ISIS’s accusations.

By Monday, September 23, it was clear that ISIS was in full control of Azaz. The internet was abuzz with talk of the impending battle between FSA brigades and ISIS. The battle had even been given a name, نهروان, Nahrawan, after a famous battle of early Islam, in which Ali bin Abi Talib, the fourth caliph, fought and defeated the army of a heretical group of Muslims known as Kharijites, who can be seen as ideological ancestors of al-Qaeda.

Many were expecting Liwa al-Tawhid to release its statement announcing the Battle of Nahrawan on September 24. The coalition formation statement that was published instead could be a preparatory step, a pragmatic consolidation that precedes any sort of direct confrontation with ISIS. The fact that JN has joined a coalition with non al-Qaeda affiliates and that ISIS is not currently a part of this coalition could signal a break between ISIS and JN. It is far too soon to confirm such a break.

The coalition could also represent another major inflection point in the organization of the rebels in Syria. Repudiation of the interim government is a major development and cause for concern, though perhaps unsurprising given its inefficacy. The greater consequence may lie in the implicit departure of this coalition from the leadership of the SMC, the unified military command of the opposition. Erosion of FSA-controlled ground lines of communication across the Turkish border combined with an abandonment by some of its most powerful brigades has the potential to leave the SMC in shambles.

Reactions from many of the relevant players both inside and outside of Syria have yet to surface. One quick response has come from Asifat al-Shamal, the embattled brigade from Azaz. Their quick show of support strengthens the case that this new coalition is a move not only against the ineffective interim leadership, but also against the encroaching forces of ISIS.

We will continue to monitor the situation and post important updates as it develops.